Impact scenario thread

[mdatspace]

This thread is about impact scenarios. There are many threads about impacts, and most are about how can we destroy the asteroids before they hit us. This is another one of them, but I won't make you find a way to blow up a 10 km rock. We'll start simple.

First Scenario: The Kerbal space station, or KSS. This is double the ISS, which is 450,000 kg, 72 meters in length, 108 meters in width and 20 meters in height. Just double that.

The KSS got hit by a piece of debris which caused it to depressurize. It destroyed multiple docking ports, and it cannot be de-orbited easily. There is a few docking ports left. It cannot be saved, but there is bigger risks.

There is a lot of debris where the KSS orbits(An equatorial orbit at 200 km). Some of it is big, some is small, but if it is hit with something big, a huge amount of debris will be formed. This will greatly increase the population of large and small debris in LEO.

Issue two is if it de-orbits itself. Its orbit will decay in 10 years. It will break up, and debris may land in populated areas.

You need to remove the threat. This is just a warm-up.

Current tally:

1 for DisarmingBaton5

1 for Ralathon

1 for airbornem4

Edited December 19, 2013 by mdatspace

[DisarmingBaton5]

Uh... Do nothing? Wait ten years? If it's still in one piece, the chances of hitting anything are negligible.

[Ralathon]

Yea, just wait it out. Kessler Syndrome isn't that much of a problem in a LEO orbit since it'll decay in a few months. Few years at most before everything is clear again. As for the falling space station, much cheaper to just see where it goes 10 years down the line and evacuate if it looks bad. If you still have control over the solar panel orientation you could use that to control your descent so you hit the ocean.

(Also, might want to up the orbit a bit. 200km is REALLY low, the ISS is twice as high and it would still decay within a year.)

[Neil1993]

If you were absolutely certain that the debris would be landing on a large population center (the massive KSP super computer says so) then you could use lasers or some other tool to break up some of the floating pieces so they're small enough to burn up completely. Then you could try to attach a rocket to a docking port and deorbit the whole station manually so that it lands in the ocean. If you're still worried about the debris, you could use some kind of giant net-like device to scoop it up.

[mdatspace]

It was a simple one. More to come. Just wait it out.

Edited December 19, 2013 by mdatspace

[rpayne88]

Just wait it out. But if you absolutely need it removed ASAP, I'd send up four small satellites holding a commercial fishing net open. Then put it into orbit at a slightly slower velocity in such a way that it would "scoop up" most of the debris. Then have the satellites "close" the net and de-orbit the whole thing.

[ZedNova]

Shoot it down with a drone shuttle.

[mdatspace]

Scenario 2: An asteroid with a diameter of 80 meters and a density of 3500 kg/m3 will collide with the earth at 40 m/s. This object, 2013DD1, was originally a temporary satellite. However, a close encounter with the moon has shoved it in an unstable orbit which will eventually cause it to impact the earth. Our simulations suggest it will hit at 35 degrees. There is 1 year until impact.

EDIT: I think this will go unsolved.

Edited December 19, 2013 by mdatspace

[kahlzun]

Scenario 2: An asteroid with a diameter of 80 meters and a density of 3500 kg/m3 will collide with the earth at 40 m/s. This object, 2013DD1, was originally a temporary satellite. However, a close encounter with the moon has shoved it in an unstable orbit which will eventually cause it to impact the earth. Our simulations suggest it will hit at 35 degrees. There is 1 year until impact.

40ms? Thats less than 200 km/h, would that even leave much of a crater? I guess it'd make a small one.

Thinking outside the box, lets attach some glide surfaces to it so that it will land gently on the surface..

Edited December 19, 2013 by kahlzun

[mdatspace]

40ms? Thats less than 200 km/h, would that even leave much of a crater? I guess it'd make a small one.

Thinking outside the box, lets attach some glide surfaces to it so that it will land gently on the surface..

I used purdue, too.

[mdatspace]

Scenario 3: A 150 meter asteroid will hit at a velocity of 55 m/s. It has a density of 3000 kg/m3. Our simulation suggest it will hit at 60 degrees.

However, images of the object suggest that it suffered an impact that may have fractured it. Multiple projectiles over 20 meters in diameter are trailing it. This object may have been a result of a larger NEO being disrupted and thus larger objects are potentially following.

Scenario 3B: Soon afterwards, the parent body of this rock was identified. It is 1000 meters in diameter, and is the remnant of a former planetesimal. It has a similar density and trajectory.

You need to stop this with current technology.

Edited December 20, 2013 by mdatspace

[Skyler4856]

I'm going for 3B. I land a liquid fuel booster upside down and thrust up. I then make use of the butterfly effect and wait.

[rpayne88]

Send a crack team of oil drillers up to it with a nuke and have them drill into it.

In all honesty, how effective would it be to launch a nuke to the dark side of it and detonate the nuke? Thus increasing its velocity and making it miss. I'm not doing the math.

[maccollo]

Scenario 3: A 150 meter asteroid will hit at a velocity of 55 m/s. It has a density of 3000 kg/m3. Our simulation suggest it will hit at 60 degrees.

Go back and double check the trajectory calculations because of they suggest an impact velocity that is 2 orders of magnitude lower than the minimum impact velocity, then chances are the trajectory calculations are bogus aswell.

If it actually, for whatever reason, turns out that it is indeed going to hit the atmosphere at that velocity, then predict it's impact location. If it's not landing right on top of a city then do nothing.

It will only release the energy equivalent of a couple of kilotons of TNT. The meteor that hit Chelyabinsk in Russia earlier this year released 500 kilotons.

Edited December 20, 2013 by maccollo

[mdatspace]

Go back and double check the trajectory calculations because of they suggest an impact velocity that is 2 orders of magnitude lower than the minimum impact velocity, then chances are the trajectory calculations are bogus aswell.

I made these using purdue's impact simulator. I didn't really care about the trajectory or how realistic it is in that regard. A rock is going to impact the earth, and you have to stop it. That is all.

Send a crack team of oil drillers up to it with a nuke and have them drill into it.

In all honesty, how effective would it be to launch a nuke to the dark side of it and detonate the nuke? Thus increasing its velocity and making it miss. I'm not doing the math.

A nuke detonation inside of the asteroid will produce a lot of debris. This asteroid is too small to hold onto the rubble. However, the debris that is produced will burn up, and the asteroid may face a reduction in mass and size. Edited December 20, 2013 by mdatspace

[maccollo]

I made these using purdue's impact simulator. I didn't really care about the trajectory or how realistic it is in that regard. A rock is going to impact the earth, and you have to stop it. That is all.

Alright then, assuming your numbers are accurate the correct course of action is to do nothing.

The rocket that you send to divert the asteroid will release more energy than the impact itself.

[rpayne88]

I made these using purdue's impact simulator. I didn't really care about the trajectory or how realistic it is in that regard. A rock is going to impact the earth, and you have to stop it. That is all.

A nuke detonation inside of the asteroid will produce a lot of debris. This asteroid is too small to hold onto the rubble. However, the debris that is produced will burn up, and the asteroid may face a reduction in mass and size.

That is not exactly what I meant. I meant to make an orion drive out of the thing.