Active SETI.

[Seret]

Not if their average lifespan is 5000 years.

It's also highly likely IMO that interstellar vessels would be entirely automated. Chances are that if we ever meet an alien, it'll be made of metal. All of our ambassadors we've sent to other worlds have been after all.

[Seret]

And humans are, by a long shot, the most aggressive species on planet Earth.

Only because honey badgers haven't invented the chainsaw.

[Scotius]

Why everybody automatically assume any alien species in our signals range will be technologically superior? Anatomically modern humans appeared some 150 000 years ago - but we started to use radio waves only about 100 years ago. Possible alien civilisations could be barely learning how to build steam engines. Or how to use fire There is high probablity that WE are the most advanced species in this area of space (unlikely, i know - but still...).

[magnemoe]

Saving life on a planet.

Assuming that war that follows will be only targeted at humans with little to no collateral damage to the environment.

Life in the void universe is very precious thing, and humans prove over and over again not to give a s*** about it. Viewed objectively: we're basically a vermin that slowly consumes a planet. Killing off good 95% of human race would be highly advised from a perspective of alien spices. This would ensure long-term survival for a natural environment, while at the same time assure that there's enough humans to keep genetically healthy population.

You think so? Let's take a look at a very distant history. Once upon a time we did encounter another intelligent spices here on our planet - Neandertals and lead to their extinction...

...but ok, let's take a look little bit closer: North and South America during Colonial era, how we basically killed vast majority of the population on two continents and now hold survivals in Indian Reservations.

Or would you want to get even closer than that? Superstitions and racism lead to one of the greatest disasters in 20th century: Holocaust.

And that's what we've done to our own spices. If any alien spices would ever found out about that - they'd be very inclined to wipe us out just for their own safety (as over time of co-existence we'd learn more about them eventually reaching a point where we'd become capable of inflicting significant causalities).

It's not intelligence. It's fear. An invention of Mutually Assured Destruction is the only reason why we're still talking here now.

First is not rational, if you look on the time it took for earth to get life, then advanced life compared to how long it took to get intelligent life everything point to that life is common, advanced life as in fish is pretty common and intelligent life is rare.

We are far more likely to save life on earth by avoiding an major impact than we are of wiping out life. Exception is some trap as in future technology typical create a black hole or grey goo scenario.

Yes alien might believe the same as you or use it as an excuse.

We did probably not wipe out the neanderthals, the great killers of Indians was diseases, no it was not an nice war but it has been plenty worse. Myself I find Rwanda far more scary than holocaust who was an classified operation, and yes it has been plenty of other genocides, not something most alien would like, and we don't want to run into the ones who find it practical.

Nobody has used nukes, in the setting where one part has nukes and the other not the one with nukes also have more conversational firepower.

We have not had wars between major powers since WW2, Stalin wanted a war none later did.

It has been a benefit that nuclear weapons has been so hard to produce that it had been out of reach from the real nutty groups.

This might change however it will not result in an cold war WW3 scenario.

[magnemoe]

Not if their average lifespan is 5000 years.

Good point, also you would want a 5k year lifespan anyway so you modify yourself or your kids.

Downside is that it would be serious hard to enter a civilization with good space infrastructure, high chance earth has this in the time you arrive.

Today you could just drop nukes or rocks from GEO and nobody could touch you.

[magnemoe]

Why everybody automatically assume any alien species in our signals range will be technologically superior? Anatomically modern humans appeared some 150 000 years ago - but we started to use radio waves only about 100 years ago. Possible alien civilisations could be barely learning how to build steam engines. Or how to use fire There is high probablity that WE are the most advanced species in this area of space (unlikely, i know - but still...).

We stayed in the stone age for millions of years, 150k as out species, started making steam engines 250 years ago, advanced radios 50 years ago, will probably have sent interstellar probes in 250 years colonies or at least bases in 1000,

So yes an high chance we are the most advanced civilization within thousands of light year.

I called this first contact and see it as the most plausible first contact scenario.

http://fc02.deviantart.net/fs70/f/2012/177/3/8/first_contact_4_by_olsen1a-d54w8tt.jpg

Still I have some fear that good intelligence is the great filter.

[Aethon]

Nobody has used nukes,

Ummm yeah. The United states of America has used nuclear weapons to destroy people and infrastructure on more than one occasion, and won't hesitate to do it again in certain situations.

Not to pick on you specifically, but let's not ignore or minimize one of our greatest tragedies (in this world of inane and sickening tragedy).

[magnemoe]

IMHO only polite to say g'day. Chances of contacting anybody are probably slim, but if everybody hides then there's the answer to the Fermi Paradox. We already optimise most of our communications and avoid leaking unnecessary energy, so our unintentional "radio signature" is tiny in time (only a few decades). Not even a blip, cosmically speaking.

As lots have said, any civilisation out there picking up our "hello" is either so far ahead of us (FTL, etc) that apart from scientific curiosity there is -nothing- we could offer them (resource-wise) so absolutely no point in mounting the typical sci-fi attack scenario, or, far more likely, will be limited to sending a "why, hello there" back.

I mean, hypothetically speaking we pick up a passive SETI signal tomorrow, does anybody seriously suggest we would immediately plan and build an invasion force instead of trying to establish mutually beneficial contact? And humans are, by a long shot, the most aggressive species on planet Earth. There's a theory which postulates that the dominant species on any planet is necessarily also the most aggressive; after all, you first have to not only survive, but thrive, before you can build up a dominating infrastructure. But to reach that point also requires an incredible amount of collaboration which, hopefully, eventually breeds out the aggression. We're not there yet, but we're not exactly space-faring yet either, having only taken the first few baby-steps out of our gravity well.

We are far from the most aggressive species.

However another issue, an civilization with an interstellar space program is unlikely to be like Sweden, yes the Swedes would have a space program but not an very expensive one, the ones who do manned missions to other stars will do it for the emperor, the race or to spread the word of the good Om, you don't do manned slower than light interstellar on a limited budget as a type 1 civilization.

Take a fast example the starship in Avatar whould require around as much energy as the sunlight falling on earth to send to Alpha Centauri in the time given in the movie.

Brings up another issue, they had one pollution problem: heat from all the power used.

[Aethon]

double post

[magnemoe]

Ummm yeah. The United states of America has used nuclear weapons to destroy people and infrastructure on more than one occasion, and won't hesitate to do it again in certain situations.

Not to pick on you specifically, but let's not ignore or minimize one of our greatest tragedies (in this world of inane and sickening tragedy).

Yes I oversimplified however during WW2 burning cities was standard operational procedure, main reason for the huge death numbers was that the Japanese did not sound air alarm for three planes as it was a standard recon pattern. yes the US in 45 probably saw the huge death count as a bonus, however the nuclear attack was only different in the damage to ground zero and the number of planes used.

And no the US is unlikely to use nuclear weapons again, they have enough conversational firepower.

In the current setting the only benefits of nukes is that they are better at destroying deeply burred structures.

Edited July 9, 2014 by magnemoe

[Scotius]

Yes I oversimplified however during WW2 burning cities was standard operational procedure, main reason for the huge death numbers was that the Japanese did not sound air alarm for three planes as it was a standard recon pattern. yes the US in 45 probably saw the huge death count as a bonus, however the nuclear attack was only different in the damage to ground zero and the number of planes used.

And no the US is unlikely to use nuclear weapons again, they have enough conversational firepower.

In the current setting the only benefits of nukes is that they are better at destroying deeply burred structures.

He's right. Firestorms created on several occasions by conventional incendiary bombs caused comparable amounts of destruction and casualties. Our species is terrifyingly good at mass murdering ourselves without using nuclear ordnance.

[Aethon]

Why everybody automatically assume any alien species in our signals range will be technologically superior?

Ok. Modern humans have been around 100,000 years. The Dinosaurs died out about 60 million years ago. If they had funded a better space program, they may have avoided the impact than killed them off, and survived until now. They would then be 60 million years more evolved than they were 60 million years ago. Imagine what we would be like 60 million years from now.

Further our sun is cosmically speaking very young. There are many stars older than ours, that may have provided a cradle for life billions of years before our sun even formed.

There may be many societies out there that are less advanced than we are, but they won't have the technology to make them visible to us over interstellar distances, and conversely won't be able to hear our message. So we are the newest guy on the block.

Many hungry baby birds chirp mindlessly for their mothers, but instead catch the attention of an older, wiser, hawk.

[SargeRho]

So they are going to travel for centuries in their ships to conquer us? I do not see how this is feasible without FTL tech. It's like a kamikazee mission without hope for reinforcements nor sucess and without knowing what awaits you on your arrival.

Depends on how far away you are. Aliens could invade us without FTL or Antimatter engines from Tau Ceti, and they could take less than a human lifetime to get here. With our current understanding of physics we can build such a craft...ressources and politics are an entirely different issue there.

[Canopus]

Sorry but i think that some of the worries people have here are without real foundation. If someone intercepts our message they will most likely take hundreds or even thousand of years (Even if they are faster we would still detect them way in advance) to get here and if they come tomorrow we will have attracted them with our unintentionally sent radio waves. So whats the differences really? And now imagine if every intelligent species would think the same way and nobody would try to make contact with someone? Wouldn't that be a little sad too?

Also, if they are at least as smart as we are, they will know that interstellar travel to conquer a planet that has the same resources as the rest of the universe makes no sense at all. They could take any planet and wouldn't need to fight a native population.

Edited July 9, 2014 by Canopus

[NASAFanboy]

Further our sun is cosmically speaking very young. There are many stars older than ours, that may have provided a cradle for life billions of years before our sun even formed.

From this, we can draw some conclusions. One, that something is silencing those civilizations that dare present themselves to the interstellar stage without being capable of interstellar travel while others wisely monitor themselves and survive the cosmic night. That something, whether it be another advanced civilization, or a bunch of rogue Von Neumann probes, or something extradimensional, that we do not know. Secondly, we can assume that intelligent life is rare. It took exactly the right conditions for intelligent life to evolve on Earth and survive, since intelligence is rather useless if you can't even pick things up or get food. Look at all the failed "offshoots" or startups of our human relatives - it was only after thousands of years of evolution that humanity evolved itself, and luckily, we had the skill and other physical attirbutes to survive on Earth as well as the brains to survive. Life is already rather rare in the universe, and among life, intelligent species are the rarest.

Lastly, I think it is safe to assume that most species simply wipe themselves out. This is not farfetched..after all, intelligence is the mark of the predator, and I doubt that aliens will outlive that primary aggressive instincts quickly. Given things such as nuclear weapons and orbital bombardment, I think that most species would quickly destroy themselves in war or destroy their planet then themselves. Look at how close humanity was wiped out in the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, and look at all these near-miss incidents of nuclear war. Personally, this is just a prediction, but I'd give a one in ten thousand chance of another intelligent civilizations within 20 light years, one in thousand within a hundred light years, and one in a hundred within five hundred light years and so forth. Life by its own right is rare in the universe, intelligent life is rarer, and intelligent civilizations that can survive and reach for the stars are the rarest jems of the galaxy.

[SargeRho]

From this, we can draw some conclusions. One, that something is silencing those civilizations that dare present themselves to the interstellar stage without being capable of interstellar travel while others wisely monitor themselves and survive the cosmic night.

That's actually a fascinatingly disturbing thought. It would explain why we don't see anyone else in the Universe.

[Mitchz95]

On one hand, there's a definite risk in prodding a civilization we know nothing about. While Earth may not have much in the way of resources, for all we know they might consider other sentient species vermin worthy of extermination. Or perhaps we'll become Native Americans, forced to watch helplessly as alien "explorers" move in and set up colonies.

On the other hand, can you imagine how we humans would react if we received a transmission from another species? Learning that we are not alone would be HUGE. It could even help usher in an era of world peace. I know I'd love to hear such a transmission, and if aliens are anything like us I'm sure they would too. And if we were able to establish two-way communication (even with a gap of several years) the information gain would be enormous.

Maybe we should wait until we have more than one planet under our belt.

[AndrewBCrisp]

While reading through the posts here, I think a couple of assumptions are being made that need questioning. The first is: because we have not detected radio signals with our own SETI programs, we must conclude that either there is nobody Out There or that anyone Out There is hiding from something Big and Nasty. The second is: we have the power (and the resources) to be detectable to other civilizations right now.

I personally believe both assumptions to be highly suspect.

To understand why, I direct your attention to the article "Smart SETI", written by Gregory and James Benford, and published as a fact article in the April 2011 issue of Analog Science Fiction and Fact (pages 33 through 39). The authors have written some papers discussing the ideas in greater detail: http://arxiv.org/abs/0810.3964 and http://arxiv.org/abs/0810.3966 but I'll summarize to the best of my ability. Any errors that follow are my own.

In brief: the authors argue that cost - whether measured in money, materials, energy, labor, or whatnot - is going to be a major factor in determining if a signal is sent and for how long. Even highly advanced civilizations will have access to a finite amount of the resources needed to send a beacon, and they will likely have to juggle those resources among a number of priorities. A civilization spread across a solar system, for example, may have to choose between terraforming a planet, launching a starship, and operating a beacon over the timeframes needed to contact another civilization. Some civilizations - our own included - may not be "rich" enough to build such beacons.

Certainly nothing we've transmitted to date, from television programs to deliberate signals to other stars (such as the Drake Picture beamed to M13 in 1974 or the 2008 "Hello from Earth" campaign) were powerful enough or long-lasting enough to be detectable beyond a light year from the source. The authors argue that, for a signal from Sol to be truly detectable, even with our current technology, one would need to invest in transmitters that will cost (both construction and operation) approx. $200,000 per light year. Alpha Centauri? Be prepared to cough up a million dollars - and do so repeatedly. Tau Ceti - twenty-four million dollars. Omnidirectional beacons designed to be detectable across thousands of light-years would require annually the entire GDP and energy output of the Earth.

In addition, the authors argue we've been looking in the wrong places - most SETI efforts have concentrated near the "water hole" frequencies, which while "quiet" may not be quiet enough for a truly cost-effective beacon. Searching for signals closer to the 10 GHz region may be more promising.

In other words, even if we ignored the dangers of provoking advanced civilizations, our best efforts to date won't even be noticed. It'd be like an ant trying to yell at us to get our attention - even screaming at the top of its breathing tubes, it could never make itself heard. We'd have to be prepared to spent a lot more than any SETI or METI proposal has spent - combined - to get results, one way or another.

As below, so above. Alien civilizations will have the same constraints, which means that we won't pick up anything except from the richest and most advanced civilizations out there - and it's possible we may have picked up some such beacons but never recognized them for what they are (the authors mention the "WOW" signal detected in the 1970s as one possible example).

Personally, I wonder if it is possible our worries about aliens squishing us for speaking up may be a case of questioning our self-esteem as a species. We see our faults all too clearly (yet fail to understand the enormous effort needed to fix them - hence why we are so frustrated that Change For The Better doesn't happen Immediately if not sooner), and assume that if aliens meet us, they'll see our faults at once and act to "correct" them. We assume that either aliens will be as Gods - judging from on high - or that they will be like us or worse, pillaging and burning as they travel through the cosmos. Perhaps, before we drive ourselves into a catatonic state wondering how aliens will see us, we need to learn to forgive ourselves our faults. Accept that we are flawed but, in the words of Jean-Luc Picard: "we are what we are, and we are doing the best we can." It's possible that other alien civilizations have had to face this same truth about themselves, and may be more understanding than we give them credit for.

[kenbobo]

Why do we look for aliens when they could totally wipe us out/ invade us/ enslave us?

[Scotius]

Wwe are anthropomorphising heavily here. Aliens will not be like us. They will not be driven by human-like ambitions or fears, because they will not be humans.

What if there is a very advanced civilisation in some 20 light years away from the Sun - but their culture evolved differently to ours? Instead of building technological society their advancement was concentrated on philosophy, art and "soft" sciences?

Or there might be highly advanced technological civilisation - but they simply do not believe that any other intelligent species exist. As such they do not try to communicate with anyone, nor listen for extraplanetary signals.

[Aethon]

Personally, I wonder if it is possible our worries about aliens squishing us for speaking up may be a case of questioning our self-esteem as a species.

If we do not learn from history, we are doomed to repeat it. Looking back over human history you'll see that the first contact between a primitive society and a technologically superior one, at best ends with the total destruction of the primitives' culture.

[G'th]

I personally hold out for our particular area of the galaxy being relatively barren. From what I understand about the ideas around abiogenesis, it doesn't seem right that life should necessarily be that rare, be it intelligent or otherwise.

And I don't think any species who reaches a similar level of intelligence to ours would end up wiping themselves out. We didn't, and it wasn't luck that did it either (no one wanted to press the button in 1962. Those who did were the extreme minority). Perhaps if the species in question was a lot more naturally aggressive than we are, sure. But just presuming that every other species in the universe is automatically going to be more aggressive than we are (that isn't even fair really) isn't right. If anything, such a species that had the capacity to achieve the sort of things we have/can but destroyed themselves would be the rarer variety. Self-preservation can't possibly be a trait unique to Earth.

Also, I wouldn't say that our extinct Homo brethren necessarily "failed". Evolutionary progress isn't failure.

[Nibb31]

And I don't think any species who reaches a similar level of intelligence to ours would end up wiping themselves out. We didn't' date=' and it wasn't luck that did it either.[/quote']

History isn't over yet, and there are plenty of ways we can wipe ourselves out.

[78stonewobble]

From this, we can draw some conclusions. One, that something is silencing those civilizations that dare present themselves to the interstellar stage without being capable of interstellar travel while others wisely monitor themselves and survive the cosmic night. That something, whether it be another advanced civilization, or a bunch of rogue Von Neumann probes, or something extradimensional, that we do not know. Secondly, we can assume that intelligent life is rare. It took exactly the right conditions for intelligent life to evolve on Earth and survive, since intelligence is rather useless if you can't even pick things up or get food. Look at all the failed "offshoots" or startups of our human relatives - it was only after thousands of years of evolution that humanity evolved itself, and luckily, we had the skill and other physical attirbutes to survive on Earth as well as the brains to survive. Life is already rather rare in the universe, and among life, intelligent species are the rarest.

Lastly, I think it is safe to assume that most species simply wipe themselves out. This is not farfetched..after all, intelligence is the mark of the predator, and I doubt that aliens will outlive that primary aggressive instincts quickly. Given things such as nuclear weapons and orbital bombardment, I think that most species would quickly destroy themselves in war or destroy their planet then themselves. Look at how close humanity was wiped out in the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, and look at all these near-miss incidents of nuclear war. Personally, this is just a prediction, but I'd give a one in ten thousand chance of another intelligent civilizations within 20 light years, one in thousand within a hundred light years, and one in a hundred within five hundred light years and so forth. Life by its own right is rare in the universe, intelligent life is rarer, and intelligent civilizations that can survive and reach for the stars are the rarest jems of the galaxy.

I do not agree with us being able to make those conclusions now. As the map on the first page of this thread illustrates, we humans are only marginally traceable within a minuscule area of the milky way. Not even in 1 percent of the milky way are we detectable. More like 0,00001 of a percent...

As for us detecting other life. We've been listening dedicatedly for an even shorter time, than we've been broadcasting. I highly doubt we'd be able to detect life in even nearby systems if they weren't broadcasting directly at us on purpose. We are allready ourselves going more quietly since more and more broadcasting is moving to cables.

Personally I'm willing to agree on the guess that life is somewhat rare and intelligent life even more so, but to definately conclude it, is like sampling 1 mm of one newly disinfected toilet seat and concluding that the whole earth is lifeless.

I'm also agreeing that there is a chance that civilisations wipe themselves out, though I believe it's more likely to be through inaction than nuclear war.

Kinda like we've grown so content with ourselves, that our space exploration is at a bare minimum and so scared of anything nuclear that we won't use it for space exploration or find out (test) whether it can be used for asteroid deflection or much needed more enviromental friendly power generation.

It's the stuff we are ignorant of, that's gonne kill us off.

[78stonewobble]

If we do not learn from history, we are doomed to repeat it. Looking back over human history you'll see that the first contact between a primitive society and a technologically superior one, at best ends with the total destruction of the primitives' culture.

No, at best their own culture still exists in some way even if they've been absorbed into another culture.

But, yeah it is a shame that the cultures of human sacrifice, slavery or cannibalism has mostly gone out of style.

-..-

Not all change are for the worse.

If alien contact ie. let to an exchange of technologies that let us build working clean fusion power tomorrow and let us feed everyone easily. THAT would technically destroy our global culture, but wouldn't most people be ok with that?