Next country to flyby/orbit moon (no landing), poll

[xenomorph555]

Alright people, first flight to the moon in 40 years and it's going to happen 2015-20. BUT WHO...

Nasa had a plan for a manned 2021 flyby, may have been replaced with mars...

Russia is apparently going to launch a modern soyuz LOK for tourists in 2017, there could be a major national effort, however they are super secretive...

China has no official plans, but biological payloads on chang'e 2.5 might hint at a zond craft mission...

Excalibur Almaz claims they will launch a misson in 2015, however we haven't heard from them since 2012...

The private companies of america have no plans, but maybe musk is crazy...

North Korea will bring the moon to Kim Jong Un since True korea owns the moon. As you know the moon and the sun were created by great leader Kim Jong Sung...

Personally I hope china but i'm not to sure, it's far too close...

Edited July 25, 2014 by xenomorph555

[NASAFanboy]

I think NASA actually has a legitimite shot at this (If it wasn't replaced by Mars already; but if so, we should all still cheer it on). China for now has no plans for a manned lunar program (Which, depending on your views, could be for better or for worse), Russia is too secretive and vague regarding it's space program (I'll give you that one), and North Korea...of course North Korea will do it since they are number one in the world in science and space technology. Their Eternal Leader will go to the Moon himself and remove the offending American flag that's littering it. As for private companies, here's my view.

Excalibur Alamaz is likely out of the space industry for a while. They just sold off one of their capsules and may be nearing finanical collapse without any funding or backers.

SpaceX is likely to be busy with their reusable rockets and lowering the cost for access to space with American government partnerships regarding Mars instead of the Moon.

Orbital Sciences may or may not compete with SpaceX, but likely will seize a good portion of the satellite market and hold it for a good while with their ISS supplyships.

Golden Spike won't flyby the Moon for another five years; might return to the Moon with NASA around 2024-2025, somewhat before or after the Chinese (If they do it).

Deep Space Industries won't be in full scale for a while, may be running off government partnerships and subsidies to mine/explore nearby asteroids; but not the Moon.

Edited July 25, 2014 by NASAFanboy

[xenomorph555]

Maybe, launch a manned flyby in 2019 with the 2nd sls and 3rd orion. I put that at a realistic 80% success rate, with 20% soyuz 1 rate...

[K^2]

The only good, economically justified reason to do a manned fly-by of the Moon, is a free-return rehearsal for a manned landing mission. So I'd strike anyone not seriously planning a landing mission, and by seriously I mean they have resources for it, off the list.

That's Russia and any smaller programs off the list, I'm afraid. Including any private companies, for near future. Space-X or similar might get big enough for it in the 20s, but that puts their manned fly-by into very late 20s to mid 30s. Russia has ambition, and they might have a reasonable chance of not killing a crew on a fly-by, but landing mission is out of their league, so it'd be just stupid to send a manned fly-by. And by the looks of latest events, Russia will only end up in a worse economic situation in the following decade. So no way.

That leaves US and China. ESA is a potential contender, but they'd be getting into the game late if they decide to go with it. Between US and China, I just don't think US will get off their collective asses until a good kick is delivered by China. And manned fly-by is probably what it would take. So my money would be on China.

[vger]

The only good, economically justified reason to do a manned fly-by of the Moon, is a free-return rehearsal for a manned landing mission. So I'd strike anyone not seriously planning a landing mission, and by seriously I mean they have resources for it, off the list.

NASA has to go back to the moon (orbiting at least) to prepare for the ARM. Currently astronauts exploring the captured asteroid is supposed to happen around 2025. So they'll have to get around to doing practice missions pretty soon.

Edited July 25, 2014 by vger

[K^2]

NASA has to go back to the moon (orbiting at least) to prepare for the ARM. Currently astronauts exploring the captured asteroid is supposed to happen around 2025. So they'll have to get around to doing practice missions pretty soon.

Manned Lunar orbiter mission would be very expensive compared to just a highly elliptic orbit mission to the edge of the Hill sphere, which can have an arbitrary duration outside of the Earth's mag field. And Lunar fly-by is a fairly short mission. They might have it penned down for now, but unless they decide to do a Lunar lander, I doubt NASA would end up doing Lunar fly-by/orbiter.

I suppose, they could do free-return as one of the first short duration missions, but it feels like a waste financially. Unless they decide that publicity would be worth it.

[vger]

I suppose, they could do free-return as one of the first short duration missions, but it feels like a waste financially. Unless they decide that publicity would be worth it.

I'm have a feeling this is part of the reason there are currently HD cameras being tested on the ISS.

Edited July 25, 2014 by vger

[Karriz]

NASA's Orion will do an unmanned flyby in 2017, it'd make sense to do a manned mission a couple of years after that, to have at least some kind of a destination.

No other country is going to have a deep-space craft anytime soon, and while NASA lacks direction at the moment, Lunar flyby would seem like an obvious choice. It's certainly more interesting to public than going nowhere.

[Sky_walker]

Probably USA. Even solely because of the asteroid mission.

Still though - I keep my bet on a first landing coming from China.

[xenomorph555]

No other country is going to have a deep-space craft anytime soon, and while NASA lacks direction at the moment, Lunar flyby would seem like an obvious choice. It's certainly more interesting to public than going nowhere.

Well there is the PPTS, however we don't how done that project is because of russian secrecy.

Orion won't be fully complete till mid 2016 in my opinion, december launch lacks many things.

[Kryten]

Space adventures now has the second passenger deposit down for their planned flyby using Soyuz. Whether they can actually afford to set up with the cash they have on hand is another matter, but at least that's somebody actively trying.

[jwenting]

The only ones with the money, the resources, the guts, and the will to do it are the Chinese.

USA is broke and too risk averse, Russia is too busy playing the big bad bear in eastern Europe, and nobody else has even close to the infrastructure to support a manned mission to the moon, even on paper.

[Sky_walker]

Well, on paper ESA got the infrastructure needed, only it'd require 2 Ariane 5 ES launches instead of just one. And obviously designing a proper service module (based on ATV to make it cheaper and quicker) and a capsule.

Ariane 5 is already man-rated, so launcher wouldn't be a problem.

But ESA got no desire to do that - they're full-on robotic exploration, not a manned missions.

[xenomorph555]

Space adventures now has the second passenger deposit down for their planned flyby using Soyuz. Whether they can actually afford to set up with the cash they have on hand is another matter, but at least that's somebody actively trying.

They do have Energia's (new okb-1) support.

[xenomorph555]

WAIT, a few years ago Energia talked about a slightly modified soyuz with a fregat upper stage launched on a proton capable of a flyby or possibly orbit. What if this is secretly being developed...

[Kryten]

That's the space adventures proposal. Not talked about much in anglophone mass media is not the same as secret.

[xenomorph555]

No that would use a rendezvous with a block DM. The fregat proposal was a russ/euro project.

[PlonioFludrasco]

And obviously designing a proper service module (based on ATV to make it cheaper and quicker) and a capsule..

Early Orion will have ATV-based Service module built by ESA, I bet that at the end Block II will have a further upgraded ATV SM, because it will be cheaper then build a brand-new as they are actually saying.

[Sky_walker]

Early Orion will have ATV-based Service module built by ESA, I bet that at the end Block II will have a further upgraded ATV SM, because it will be cheaper then build a brand-new as they are actually saying.

Yea, I know.

There's even been some internet speculation about using that and another ATV-based command module to build a space craft capable of docking with ISS and doing a moon fly-by this way with a one-man lunar descend module attached to the bottom of a command module - or ship would split in half and command module could land on a surface of the moon and then come back up on it's own.

Such ship would always be kept on an orbit - astronauts would dock with ISS and use Soyuz to get back down to the earth. After few years it could be used as a base of Mars-exploration vessel with a possible landing on a surface of Marian moons.

But... you know - just random internet talk.

So far the closest we get to this will be DC4EU and an ATV service module. Sadly - incompatible with eachother (different docking ports) and incapable of lunar landing - though flyby would be within reach.

Edited July 25, 2014 by Sky_walker