If a disaster left us with pre-industrial technology, could we become advanced again?

[linkxsc]

Well back at the tech, our "technical writing/public speaking" teacher gave us the project of "Assume ____ apocalyptic scenario, what assumptions can you and your group come up with about the survivability of humanity."

I remember the asteroid group, the general concensus was that as long as people could survive the initial blast/firestorm, they probably wouldn't have to much trouble springing back. Remember, even though we might be "back in the stone age" there are countless machines around that the survivors could use to their advantage. No reason why cars and such would stop working aside from physical damage. Yeah fuel would become scarse, but with rationing, they could probably make do with the fuel left in their immediate area, for a few years actually. Also they wouldn't have many other people around competing with them for resources.

My group had drawn the "Coronal Mass Ejection, Disaster", basically a huge EMP effect, although there would be some serious sunburns, and crops may be destroyed if this went on for a long time. Most all computers, things that operate off semiconductors, batteries and such were destroyed. Now THERE would be a pretty terrible apocalypse. Especially for any living near major cities. The 3rd world, would probably survive just fine. 1st world though.

Just think of New York City. Usually theres over 3 million people on Manhattan island every day. Suddenly, every car is broken down (most can't run without their computer), power goes out because no computers or control systems at power plants continue working. Sewage breaks down, Water pumping stations go down. Even most backup generator systems go down because they rely on computerized engine controllers/ semiconductor power rectifier/inverters. Also I don't think that all the food in the city could support that population for more than a few days. Few cars to transport people away. Police can't control the population by any amount. Looting, violence. But thats just the beginning. Soon these people would start leaving the city. No food to be had, theres no choice but to leave. Assuming they all grab some food, they might make it a few days down the interstates outside the city. Most would probably head south/west towards the farming country, that would be their only chance of survival. But could the farming country of Pennsylvania/NewYork sustain that number of people? Remember, that 3mil is just what Manhattan sees, theres millions more in the surrounding cities/suburbs. Dead bodies would litter the streets of NY and NJ, bodies of those whos starved before making it.

Even the mid-west what with all its farming would be hard pressed to survive. Most of that land is really terrible farmland, and never sees enough rain to support growing on the scale that we do it now. All that land has to be irrigated... by rotary sprinkler systems that run on computers, high power water pumping systems that can't run now since the power plants are for the most part, defunct. Even if the crops weren't destroyed during the CME, most would probably dry up in the fields. And what if it happened during winter?

We had a 35min presentation about it in class... yeah I won't get into the whole thing, it got pretty morbid around the first 5-10 minutes, but it would be survivable.

Simple engines that don't need electronics would still work. Yeah you'd be screwed on batteries (though there are places that sell batteries with no fluid in them, we had argued that some of those might survive, and could be filled and used later) But pull start engines would work fine, so there would be some transport ability. Much farming equipment (tractors and such) would become useless, but with the huge population explosion, there would be plenty of hands to work the land manually. Also anyone who has restored/collected old pre-depression era tractors and such would be in business. Also machinery to construct new machinery (mills/lathes, plug in power tools) would still be viable, if only a suitable power source could be found/made. But man those first 2 years would be brutal.

[vger]

linkxsc I was just looking into the CME issue just the other day, after news of our recent near-miss with a class-X. Seems it's pretty trivial to build your own faraday cage, or at least one that's 'good enough' to protect small electronics. A bit of clever planning and you could park your car inside a combination of cardboard and tinfoil. That's what I "read" anyway, and I'm taking it with a few grains of salt, because I have trouble believing it's really that simple. But if it is, you can then experience the fun of fighting off the crazy looters who are trying to get their hands on the only functional car in the whole town.

If nothing else, I'd at least like to construct something that I can toss by hard drives into, along with a few 'survivalist' electronic devices.

Edited July 31, 2014 by vger

[linkxsc]

linkxsc I was just looking into the CME issue just the other day, after news of our recent near-miss with a class-X. Seems it's pretty trivial to build your own faraday cage, or at least one that's 'good enough' to protect small electronics. A bit of clever planning and you could park your car inside a combination of cardboard and tinfoil. That's what I "read" anyway, and I'm taking it with a few grains of salt, because I have trouble believing it's really that simple. But if it is, you can then experience the fun of fighting off the crazy looters who are trying to get their hands on the only functional car in the whole town.

If nothing else, I'd at least like to construct something that I can toss by hard drives into, along with a few 'survivalist' electronic devices.

Well theres the trick though, some electronics would perhaps survive simply by being in basement parking garages. But the severe majority would stop working. Also unlike other apocalypse scenarios like asteroids which could be detected years ahead of time, a cme can happen and hit the earth withing 3-5 days.

Abother bad thing to think about. All them nuclear missile subs chilling out down 100m under the surface would probably all work just fine, protected from damage by the water (though i dont know, would the water protect against a cme?)

[vger]

Well theres the trick though, some electronics would perhaps survive simply by being in basement parking garages. But the severe majority would stop working. Also unlike other apocalypse scenarios like asteroids which could be detected years ahead of time, a cme can happen and hit the earth withing 3-5 days.

Abother bad thing to think about. All them nuclear missile subs chilling out down 100m under the surface would probably all work just fine, protected from damage by the water (though i dont know, would the water protect against a cme?)

I've heard water will deflect them sufficiently, though I don't know how much. Presuming you can wrap your gear sufficiently in water-tight bags, you could just sink them to the bottom of a pool or tie a rope around them and leave them in a pond.

I've got an urge now to find out what FEMA's opinion on all of this is.

[jwenting]

Who again declare the scrap as a monument...

or worse, a religious shrine, and declare Holy War on people who dare venerate the wrong kind of scrap.

[jwenting]

You forget, that it is not the metals that matter, but something much much different. Even if we were blasted into the Neolithic age, I know about a piece of technology that could take us to the Bronze Age, it's called the Bellows. It's a compressible container that "blows" air into a fire, making it hotter. This allows for that fire to melt metals. Then we can use those metals to make tools.

Plus, that would only happen if everyone with knowledge about industrial technology died in that disaster.

Tiny problem there is that you'd need a lot more heat than a wood fire and a bellows can create to melt all that iron and stuff.

While the knowledge might exist somewhere with some people on how to jump the technology evolution given the right materials, getting those materials is still problematic.

First you need to reinvent charcoal (do you know how to make it without looking it up on the internet, and without 21st century, or even 18th century technology you won't have?).

Then with the increased heat from that you need to invent the means to mine coal using hand tools rather than explosives, electric and hydraulic machinery, etc. etc..

That gives you the heat needed to forge iron.

Now you're going to have to hope someone has a text book on metalurgy that hasn't burned, rotted, or was otherwise destroyed and he'll let you read it.

That might give you some information on making the easier steel alloys.

You're also going to have to reinvent electricity, pumps, the works.

And the further along we get to putting everything in electronic storage on computers rather than on paper the harder that will all become.

[linkxsc]

Tiny problem there is that you'd need a lot more heat than a wood fire and a bellows can create to melt all that iron and stuff.

While the knowledge might exist somewhere with some people on how to jump the technology evolution given the right materials, getting those materials is still problematic.

First you need to reinvent charcoal (do you know how to make it without looking it up on the internet, and without 21st century, or even 18th century technology you won't have?).

Then with the increased heat from that you need to invent the means to mine coal using hand tools rather than explosives, electric and hydraulic machinery, etc. etc..

That gives you the heat needed to forge iron.

Now you're going to have to hope someone has a text book on metalurgy that hasn't burned, rotted, or was otherwise destroyed and he'll let you read it.

That might give you some information on making the easier steel alloys.

You're also going to have to reinvent electricity, pumps, the works.

And the further along we get to putting everything in electronic storage on computers rather than on paper the harder that will all become.

I dunno bro, I've made charcoal for my own little forging projects before (its pretty easy, you just burn wood without it getting oxygen, its easy to do by just filling a paintcan or something, with wood and baking it in a fire. Done it several times before when we have bonfires (gonna have the fire anyways), and buying coal where I live is kinda expensive, so I make do with what I got. (Also, NEVER use charcoal briquets) Could I melt steel with the assets at my immediate disposal... maybe, but why would I want to. Some charcoal and some hammering and someone who listens cranking the blower, and I can shape/forgeweld any scrap into a stock material, and back into something useful.

Actually my own forging work was on a whim during highschool, made several knives and such from old files and the spring steel from old automotive springs. Though if I were to be making say... a horse drawn farming plow, I think I might need to expand the size of my forge, but even that would be trivial, Could take the brick to make it larger from any of hundreds of houses. Although I will state, I'm a horrible smith, it was just something to do in the summer with a couple friends, though we did get several good knives out of that, tried a couple swords... they didn't come out so great, really should have had 2 people hammering for them because they take FOREVER.

PS. want a good hobby that'll get you a lot of exercise in a short time, and you'll always have a nice tan, try smithing.

Yeah the argument is there that most of what we know comes from the internet, and after the apoc, that'll be gone. But what, is every library in the country going to burn down at the same time too? Maybe its just more to point that people should have some hobbys of varying discipline such that they learn about many different things. (me, well, I'm just a nerd who can't sit still for long) Also most all the basic of creating and working steel could be gotten out of an old tech school materials course/book.

Also, who says that everything would cease to exist. Again I reiterate as I did in an earlier post. Its not like you'll be blasted back to the stone age. You'll be in the stone age with countless books of knowledge and derelict machines, and perhaps, others around who are intelligent about different things than yourself. Theres no "reinvention" it'll just be, rebuilding. Yeah rebuilding would take time, but hey, all those machines I was talking about. Can probably get them running again.

Just a little additional info cause well, I'm bored, and you guys might need to know this in the future if theres and apocalypse. Lackign a paint can to make your charcoal, what they did back in the day (medieval) to make charcoal, they would split up logs much liek you would for firewood, stack it up several feet, and cover the wood with dirt to keep the air from getting to it. Then they would stack more wood around that mound and over it and ignite it, then keep the fire burning for a couple days. Then leaving the mound untouched for a few more days to cool, (if you were to dig it out while its still hot, it may ignite) then dig out your charcoal, and use it.

Other things you may consider looking into because they're interesting reads is wood gas generators (basically making charcoal, while burning it and releasing flammable gasses that can be trapped, and perhaps stored for later usage, IE allowing the running of propane powered equipment)

Edited August 1, 2014 by linkxsc

[Seret]

do you know how to make it without looking it up on the internet

I do too, it's not hard. Like linkxsc says: build a big bonfire, cover it over with earth and babysit it for a few days.

The thing is, not everybody would have to know how to do everything. Even in modern urban society you wouldn't have to look very hard to find people who could build houses, set broken bones, throw pots, deliver babies, design an irrigation system, train horses, and grow crops. A group of a few dozen people could easily be pretty self-sufficient and after a few years they should be generating an agricultural surplus that would allow some of the them to pursue special skills. There are a few traditional skills that would be very rare (eg: fletching) but groups would presumably trade for these either using their surplus food or their own specialist goods.

Personally if I was part of a post-apocalyptic group one of my early jobs would be sending a raiding party into a big city to ransack a university library and carry off every book on a practical subject we could. A good library would be a huge advantage once the group was on its feet and ready to move up a gear.

It would be an interesting shift in society to see what types of people would be valuable in a survival situation. Doctors have always been important, but us engineers would suddenly be a lot more valued. People with a practical trade would be able to eat without breaking their backs in the fields. Sorry all you bankers, estate agents, and parking wardens, you're now farmers. Bit of manual labour might do them some good.

[KerbMav]

Personally if I was part of a post-apocalyptic group one of my early jobs would be sending a raiding party into a big city to ransack a university library and carry off every book on a practical subject we could.

Ande here we have one example of many for the real problem we would face.

[Seret]

Ande here we have one example of many for the real problem we would face.

Why would that be a problem? If somebody took responsibility for safeguarding our stores of knowledge then humanity as a whole is better off. During the Dark Ages in Europe the Christian church took on the role of safeguarding the classical knowledge of the Greeks and Romans, for example.

Besides, in a survival situation competition is inevitable. Groups which didn't have some kind of competitive advantage over their neighbours would find it difficult to trade for resources and goods they were short on themselves.

[Laie]

The thing is, not everybody would have to know how to do everything. Even in modern urban society you wouldn't have to look very hard to find people who could build houses, set broken bones, throw pots, deliver babies, design an irrigation system, train horses, and grow crops. A group of a few dozen people could easily be pretty self-sufficient

And they don't need to be particularly skilled, either. Having some dabbling experience is enough to get you started. All those medieval reenactment folks will come in handy, too: never mind if they ever crafted something themselves, they're familiar with how a workable low-tech solution looks like, and why. That goes a long way.

Reinventing things is relatively easy. Fletching? I know what it is, how it works, and what the result should look like. Give me some glue and string and I should be able to develop sufficient skill during one rainy day. Getting glue, string and a sharp knife might be the most difficult part of the project.

Tanning is more challenging. Something with urine and/or ashes and/or tree bark? Many things to try, plus I'd have to wait some time before I can tell if I succeeded. Still, I know that it can be done and has been done. That matters a lot.

Once sheer survival is taken care of, humanity can quickly recover many "lost" technologies. If it wants to. Has anyone here read "A Canticle for Leibovitz"?

[Comrade Jenkens]

Tanning is more challenging

That's why a group of people with many different skills would come in useful. There are still plenty of people who know how to make leather.

[Red Iron Crown]

The Amish shall inherit the Earth. Seriously.

[Laie]

That's why a group of people with many different skills would come in useful. There are still plenty of people who know how to make leather.

I don't doubt that such people exist, but expect them to be few and far between. Tanning isn't as cool as smithying... and I presume that you don't get to pick the members of your group. During the first rounds of disease and starvation, survival is probably a matter of sheer luck more than anything else.

What I'm trying to get at is that you don't need really skilled people. Even my cursory knowledge of the topic would be quite a head start compared to the original invention. In any random group of 50 people, there's probably not a single beekeeper. But chances are that you have someone whose uncle used to keep bees and "I watched him as a child". If she soaked up enough knowldege to get started, that will be enough. Though the most important knowledge is that beekeping is possible, skins can (and have to) be cured, and so on.

Besides, not every group of survivors has to succeed at all tasks.

[KerbMav]

Besides, not every group of survivors has to succeed at all tasks.

Judging from some comments - they only have to succeed in fighting.

As I see it, humanity is always split into groups, and even in a nation, county, city, village, family, class room, company, university, office etc. you have no 80% (yup, I made that up to give my sentence a logical flow) common ground.

I think we humans started out in small groups, families and clans, and it all worked rather well, even as the groups banded together/grew in to villages, but as soon as a certain obscure number of humans lives together, it somehow tips. We have adjusted to live in large cities with up to millions of inhabitants, although it still stresses our system, but still there are rivalries between the cities, because we associate us with the inhabitants of our city.

Now, if such an event would take place, who would call out to the neighbouring city and say "Resettle in our town, we still have fresh water"? No, no asking for what they have in turn, no demanding their firstborn daughters, no forcing them into labor!

Food in malls would not be rationed and distributed evenly, it would be fought over.

Medicine would not be given to those in need, but taken by the stronger party, in case they need it later.

Water sources would not be open to everyone, they would be seized, guarded and defended against the others.

It is rarely the clever guy that survives (on its own or by living by his standards), but almost always the bully - who forces the clever guys to work for him.

[Seret]

Reinventing things is relatively easy. Fletching? I know what it is, how it works, and what the result should look like. Give me some glue and string and I should be able to develop sufficient skill during one rainy day. Getting glue, string and a sharp knife might be the most difficult part of the project.

Actually no. The reason I mentioned fletching is that from what I've heard it's highly skilled. You could probably produce rubbish arrows on a rainy day, but you won't catch much dinner with those.

Some skills that would be required for a leap back to a lower tech level do have steep learning curves that would make it very hard for a novice to become proficient without instruction from a master.

Besides, not every group of survivors has to succeed at all tasks.

Indeed, which is why I mentioned trade above, and the importance of having a competitive advantage in one area. If your group could make some goods that others needed you can trade for what you lack.

[Seret]

Judging from some comments - they only have to succeed in fighting.

Any group attempting to rebuild would be foolish to neglect their security arrangements. Soldier would be high on the list of useful professions IMO.

History shows us that dispersed agrarian societies do engage in raiding, but that more organised military efforts require a considerable agricultural surplus. You can't raise an army if everybody is busy on their farms, but you can launch raids. Obviously in this post-crash scenario there are significant force-multipliers available in the form of advanced weapons. You wouldn't have to have a huge army if you had a mortar, you'd just rock up and demand they surrendered or you'd pound their village into dust.

[Sky_walker]

You could probably produce rubbish arrows on a rainy day, but you won't catch much dinner with those.

You'd be surprised. Wild animals (deers/boars/etc.) near towns tend to be so used to humans that often you can approach them close enough to hit with a sharp stick - so arrows, even made by someone with little knowledge but enough manual skill, would work just fine. Obviously it varies from place to place, but where I live - it wouldn't be a problem, at least for first few months.

Some skills that would be required for a leap back to a lower tech level do have steep learning curves that would make it very hard for a novice to become proficient without instruction from a master.

Making quality tools - yes. Making just tools - probably not. Perhaps not an average joe, but many people posses know tons of stuff that never came to the mind of people in a stone age. We probably would be able to create simple steam engines within few years after the disaster. Electricity - no to long after that.

I doubt that getting back to the level of 18th century would take us longer than one generation. And progress after that would be by far quicker than ever before simply because a lot of knowledge would be passed down to the next generation, and we'd already know about things like bacteria, basics of electronics, elements and their uses, etc.

A lot - and I mean: A LOT - would depend on who gets in power - but if lead wisely, promoting people with knowledge (instead of warriors), we could progress extremely rapidly.

Judging from some comments - they only have to succeed in fighting.

As I see it, humanity is always split into groups, and even in a nation, county, city, village, family, class room, company, university, office etc. you have no 80% (yup, I made that up to give my sentence a logical flow) common ground.

I think we humans started out in small groups, families and clans, and it all worked rather well, even as the groups banded together/grew in to villages, but as soon as a certain obscure number of humans lives together, it somehow tips. We have adjusted to live in large cities with up to millions of inhabitants, although it still stresses our system, but still there are rivalries between the cities, because we associate us with the inhabitants of our city.

Now, if such an event would take place, who would call out to the neighbouring city and say "Resettle in our town, we still have fresh water"? No, no asking for what they have in turn, no demanding their firstborn daughters, no forcing them into labor!

Food in malls would not be rationed and distributed evenly, it would be fought over.

Medicine would not be given to those in need, but taken by the stronger party, in case they need it later.

Water sources would not be open to everyone, they would be seized, guarded and defended against the others.

It is rarely the clever guy that survives (on its own or by living by his standards), but almost always the bully - who forces the clever guys to work for him.

It'd vary very much depending on a location and how many people would die in a disaster.

You must understand that modern human is by far more tolerant to living in a close neighbourhood with hundreds of other people than a stone-age humans were. Awareness of "nation" in a common people begun pretty much after French Revolution. These days we'd be by far more capable of building large society anew and creating a civilization than humans were centuries ago.

Edited August 1, 2014 by Sky_walker

[TheGatesofLogic]

The only thing i have to bring to this discussion is this: books would be far and away more valuable than gold

[Red Iron Crown]

The only thing i have to bring to this discussion is this: books would be far and away more valuable than gold

Except for gold books. Seriously, though, books already have more intrinsic value than gold.

It would be interesting to see what would develop as a currency for exchange post-apocalypse. Some representation for whatever is in tightest supply, I'd imagine. Fiat currency isn't going to work for a long time.

[Sky_walker]

It would be interesting to see what would develop as a currency for exchange post-apocalypse.

Bottle caps. Obviously.

[Guest]

Except for gold books. Seriously, though, books already have more intrinsic value than gold.

It would be interesting to see what would develop as a currency for exchange post-apocalypse. Some representation for whatever is in tightest supply, I'd imagine. Fiat currency isn't going to work for a long time.

Bullets. You can use them to hunt, defend yourself, even make a fire (though this requires some know-how). It makes sense they'd become very valuable. Glukhovsky got that one right. You all should remember that it's very hard to remove/destroy guns, and they'd almost certainly survive in a decent number. More advanced military equipment might not, but an M-16/AK-47 and derivatives, as well as many older weapons, are relatively simple and robust. They're perfect for hunting (no need to make arrows if you have a rifle) and for defense as well. As such, "strongest" would mean "with the largest amount of guns".

Usually, this means the military, so the post-apocalyptic society would probably be led by a military junta. In the US and Europe, it might not be a bad thing at all (the military is pretty civilized there), but in other countries it might differ. Also, both military equipment and personnel are in some way hardened against disasters of all kinds. Even an IPAC paper-pusher lady on an USMC base has probably heard a few things about surviving in the field (if only from the grunts complaining ) and fired a rifle at least once, putting her above many men from outside the military (also, she likely lives somewhere near good, hardened shelters and her unit's armory, making those things a non-issue). If there's anything that's going to retain any semblance of pre-apocalyptic structure after a civilization-destroying event, it's gonna be the western military. USMC will probably remain intact enough to retain it's own absurds, too.

NORAD and rocket forces in general would probably also survive fully intact, since they were designed to do just that. Remember, the world has been preparing for a nuclear apocalypse for about a half of the 20th century. Hardly anything can happen to Earth that can top that, short of the planet being blasted apart or the Sun exploding. If anything, a large amount of people from Moscow and London (huge metro systems that can, and in the latter cases did double as shelters), rocket forces and submariners would survive with their rations and equipment intact.

Edited August 1, 2014 by Guest

[Red Iron Crown]

Bullets.

Good choice! Also has the advantage of being easily portable and available in small denominations.

Usually, this means the military, so the post-apocalyptic society would probably be led by a military junta. In the US and Europe, it might not be a bad thing at all (the military is pretty civilized there), but in other countries it might differ. Also, both military equipment and personnel are in some way hardened against disasters of all kinds.

I think the Western militaries are only more civilized due to civilian oversight and control, take that away and they'll likely become just like those in those other countries.

Even an IPAC paper-pusher lady on an USMC base has probably heard a few things about surviving in the field (if only from the grunts complaining ) and fired a rifle at least once, putting her above many men from outside the military (also, she likely lives somewhere near good shelters and her unit's armory, making those things a non-issue). If there's anything that's going to retain any semblance of pre-apocalyptic structure after a civilization-destroying event, it's gonna be the western military. USMC will probably remain intact enough to retain it's own absurds, too. NORAD and rocket forces in general would probably survive fully intact, too, since they were designed to do just that.

Interestingly, all US marines are required to stay qualified on the service rifle, even paper pushers. pilots, and generals. Not sure what IPAC is though, and a quick googling wasn't enlightening.

[PakledHostage]

The thing is, not everybody would have to know how to do everything. Even in modern urban society you wouldn't have to look very hard to find people who could build houses, set broken bones, throw pots, deliver babies, design an irrigation system, train horses, and grow crops.

My wife throws pots... But only when she's really mad.

Seriously though, I agree that defense and food production would be the highest priority for any organized group after such a catastrophe. As Peadar1987 pointed out, a Chicxulub size impact would be initially survivable by millions of people around the world but the after effects would be devastating to the remaining population. Stockpiles of things like machines, tools, books, food, medicine, etc. would go a long way towards ensuring the survival of human civilization, but it wouldn't be a pleasant time for anyone to be alive. Larry Niven and Jerry Pournelle did a pretty good job, I think, of describing the initial period of havoc following a comet impact in Lucifer's Hammer. But heck, an event like that might be the SCA guys time to shine if they manage to survive until after the NRA yahoos run out of ammo...

[jwenting]

Good choice! Also has the advantage of being easily portable and available in small denominations.

I'll trade you 1 155mm high explosive shell for 2 cases of .303?