Codraroll Posted February 13, 2023 Share Posted February 13, 2023 Then the question is, how different does it look from a hole drilled in error at the manufacturing plant, covered with resin putty, and painted nicely over? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbiloid Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 ... by three different workers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDE Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 6 hours ago, Codraroll said: Then the question is, how different does it look from a hole drilled in error at the manufacturing plant, covered with resin putty, and painted nicely over? You'd have to somehow explain a ring of dark ejecta or pyrobolt explosive residue. Doesn't look like mechanical markings. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDE Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 Rogozin's №1 fan chips in Mikhail Kotov has succinctly summarized that, whatever has actually hapenned, any version involves Dyatlov Pass levels of mystery. Even if both cases are an endogenic technical issue, it has replicated itself with absolutely astonishing reliability. https://t.me/space78125/1565 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbiloid Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 Spoiler Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CatastrophicFailure Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 1 hour ago, DDE said: Even if both cases are an endogenic technical issue, it has replicated itself with absolutely astonishing reliability. ULA hired themselves a new sniper… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDE Posted February 14, 2023 Share Posted February 14, 2023 1 hour ago, CatastrophicFailure said: ULA hired themselves a new sniper… I think https://www.whatsthatbug.com/ charged extra for hazard pay in identifying that one... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbiloid Posted February 15, 2023 Share Posted February 15, 2023 (edited) Soyuz MS-23 starts being prepared for the launch, as they have found no artificial holes, so additional waiting looks aimless. *** Also, the US journalist noticed that the holes looks similar to the Atlantis one. https://twitter.censors.us/SciGuySpace/status/1625219796760420353#m *** Spoiler A guess. Looks like (thanks to Starlink) the amount of the orbital crafts has reached the limit when either the Matrix RAM buffer is overflown, or the Pauli Principle starts prohibiting new spacecraft pieces from being added, so the holes appear in place of excessive craft elements. That's why they are same and similarly located. You know, like the electrons. Edited February 15, 2023 by kerbiloid Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDE Posted February 17, 2023 Share Posted February 17, 2023 (edited) Progress M21 to undock tomorrow 05:26 MSK. Instead of trying to bend the Canadarm to photo it, they're going to photo it once undocked. https://t.me/roscosmos_gk/8477 Edited February 17, 2023 by DDE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbiloid Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 https://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/63f069999a794731094e5193 The Progress MS-21 undocking is delayed. They will decide if to deorbit it or redock it to the Prichal module for further investigation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDE Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 2 hours ago, kerbiloid said: https://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/63f069999a794731094e5193 The Progress MS-21 undocking is delayed. They will decide if to deorbit it or redock it to the Prichal module for further investigation. Correction: MS-21 is undocked, but the deorbit burn has been aborted. Mainly because they haven't been able to find any visual evidence of damage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbiloid Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 https://www.rbc.ru/technology_and_media/18/02/2023/63f0aacd9a79474472689260 P MS-21 will splash on Feb 19 in Pacific. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDE Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 Soyuz MS-23 launch scheduled Feb 24 03:34 MSK https://t.me/roscosmos_gk/8494 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbiloid Posted February 18, 2023 Share Posted February 18, 2023 With Kerbals. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbiloid Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 https://www.energia.ru/ru/news/news-2023/news_02-17.html Soyuz MS-23 is shrouded and ready to be put ona rocket. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDE Posted February 19, 2023 Share Posted February 19, 2023 "Sergei Pavlovich?" "Exam time, Yuri." https://t.me/space78125/1574 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDE Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Image of Progress MS-21 hole. https://t.me/roscosmos_gk/8532 No stain and doesn't seem to be any ejecta. Almost the exact same location. And they've assessed the hole to be a whopping 12 mm in diameter. At any rate, preliminary conclusion is damage from outside factors. Official information ends here A simple hole half and inch wide wouldn't wait for a week to vent coolant, and the coolant would probably vent quiet a bit more enthusiastically. Besides, does Energia even have drill bits this fat? I'd love to see a cross-section of the radiator, but this sounds like it was either a crater that only made it partway through the panel, and its bottom gave way later (and the shiny metal would be plainly visible to ground personnel before solar array folding), or it was micrometeoroid damage in situ. But it is a rather weird-looking crater... the overall 12 mm structure looks raised and the hole in the center is tiny... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDE Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 (edited) After a very brief Googling, I think Roscosmos ran into the problem of not having a Russian burecratese for "defect" - the defect is 12 mm in diameter and consists mainly of silvery molten ejecta. Slide 16 here looks particularly interesting: https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/files/E_Christiansen-MMODriskOverview.pdf ... although I also susoect is might be torn-off Kapton. Edited February 21, 2023 by DDE Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbiloid Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 (edited) 1 hour ago, DDE said: No stain and doesn't seem to be any ejecta. Almost the exact same location. And they've assessed the hole to be a whopping 12 mm in diameter. At any rate, preliminary conclusion is damage from outside factors. 11.43 mm?! 47 minutes ago, DDE said: the defect is 12 mm in diameter and consists mainly of silvery molten ejecta. Silver bullets?! Spoiler Spoiler Somebody on ISS having a .45 Colt revolver was shooting at a werewolf sitting outside of the station in the moonlight. The Russkies don't have Colts. Ergo... So, they should check in everyone's personal things for: .45 Colt, empty paper box from silver bullets, and empty bottle of whiskey. Edited February 21, 2023 by kerbiloid Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDE Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 1 hour ago, kerbiloid said: The Russkies don't have Colts. Now-now... Spoiler Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbiloid Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 1 hour ago, DDE said: Now-now... Silver bullets. Not a Russian tradition to spend the non-ferrous metals on stupid superstitions. Only fat-cat Anglosaxons do this in movies, while everyone knows that an aspen stake is good enough. Also, a true Russian werewolf hunter would use a blessed 7.62 mm TT, just because. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kerbiloid Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 (edited) https://www.interfax.ru/russia/887089 The Energy Corp. considers the SMS-22 and PMS-21 damages as caused by external force (presumably, a meteoroid or a peace of space junk), and doesn't see it as a manufacturing defect. It will run the on-ground damage experiments. https://www.interfax.ru/russia/887090 The rocket with uncrewed SMS-23 is delivered to the launchpad. It should bring to the ISS 429 kg of cargo, including the scientific tools Vzaimodeystviye / Interaction-2, Matryoshka-R, Cardiovector, MSK / (who knows)-2, Cascade, Fagen, Probiovit, and expendables. https://www.interfax.ru/russia/887099 The crew of the damaged SMS-22 will return in September on the preparing SMS-23, whose radiator is looked at and is looking free of defects. https://www.interfax.ru/russia/887127 The Russian ISS crewed program has been shifted by a half-year due to the SMS-22 and PMS-21 damages. Edited February 21, 2023 by kerbiloid Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted February 21, 2023 Author Share Posted February 21, 2023 vs In almost exactly the same place? (a few cm farther way from that racetrack on MS-22). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDE Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 Meanwhile, an internal Roscosmos advisory board approves ISS extension until 2028. https://t.me/roscosmos_gk/8541 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDE Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 In other things that launched today, everyone's favorite lung cancer survivor is out of dock. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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