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Everything posted by Terwin
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You forgot the word 'garbled' in your description. If you trained a LLM on flower names and color names, gave it the dataset 'Roses are red and violets are blue' then the odds of answering 'what color are violets?' would be ~50% 'red' and ~50% 'blue' because it was not trained on 'and' or 'are' in this context and could only look at proximity in the dataset for clues. I cannot imagine that there are many LLM that have been trained on enough rocketry information to have any context for the rocket equation beyond linking it to the name(if that). Leave LLMs to what they are good(ish) at: writing fiction in the style of a prolific author that is well represented in their dataset.(the stories may not be any good, but I have confidence that they word usage and sentence structure will match very well)
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For Questions That Don't Merit Their Own Thread
Terwin replied to Skyler4856's topic in Science & Spaceflight
Depends on if you count the 'partial eclipse's shadow(larger than moon) or just the full eclipse part of the shadow(smaller than moon) -
Unless and until there is a loss of paid cargo or a loss of life, starship failures are just a development cost, and entirely reasonable. They may have known that there was a >50% chance of the problem happening again, but this time with better instrumentation to better pin down the cause and that would be a perfectly reasonable test scenario, especially if it is the cheapest way to get that data. Until there is a paid cargo onboard, they are expecting vehicle failures, so vehicle failures are not program failures.
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I'm not scared of smart AI, I'm afraid of humans who do not understand AI giving it authority that it is not equipped to handle to avoid having any responsibility themselves. (they already do this with clueless humans, but AI can be clueless in whole new ways that the existing safe-guards may not b equipped to handle)
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[New] Space Launch System / Orion Discussion Thread
Terwin replied to ZooNamedGames's topic in Science & Spaceflight
I will admit that if the government just wants to spend a lot of money on a jobs program, I am not adverse to that program being in the space sector. It would be nice if they would produce some sort of value with those job dollars however. -
Would Physics Allow For a Plasma Railgun Or Coil Gun?
Terwin replied to Spacescifi's topic in Science & Spaceflight
To not have the rails degrade from friction, you will need to use plasma for the projectile, at which point you are pushing a self-repulsive gas out of your barrel at high speed where it will immediately disperse into a (possibly strong) breeze as it distributes it's energy to the surrounding air. If you are talking about using a dense plasma buffer to protect the rail, then you are talking about using incredibly powerful magnetic fields to contain the plasma between two electrical conductors trying to use their own magnetic fields to push against each other. Sounds like the sort of thing that might be possible as a vanity project in a type 3 civilization by using a majority of the energy output of a star, but would not be nearly as effective as just using your power source to power a big laser or something. -
Didn't the FAA issue a license for multiple launches including Flights 7 and 8? Unless the license was violated, why would the FAA object to continuing use of that license? It took multiple mishaps before the MAX jet got grounded, and those involved loss of life for example. A New license might get delayed for a mishap, but I suspect that the bar is higher to stop/revoke an existing/ongoing license
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@Spacescifi Instead of asking questions to which you really do not want the answers, perhaps you should include: a) an outline of how you want the story to go and b) if you want a realistic examination of your scenario if it does not match the provided story outline. Currently you are just posting lots of unrealistic scenarios and then changing them again and again when a realistic analysis goes against your imagined(but never stated) narrative. Also, if you are not looking for a technical analysis on why your hoped-for scenario is completely implausible, The Lounge might be a better place to post your story seeds. (they might even fit into the Forum Games if you are looking for a collaborative story telling type of activity)
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Giving additional options to people who already have options while only making things worse for those without options is not the most effective use of public funds.
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Is there any indication that the ISS retirement schedule has changed in any way in the last several months?
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Moving the cost-burden of storage to the homeowner does not make a storage solution more affordable, if anything it will only increase total costs due to the need for so much redundant hardware and smaller scales. At best it just provides more options for those that can already afford alternate power sources when the grid goes down.
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Most nuclear plants are much more rapidly cycle able than coal or nat gas, you just dump the steam.(Coal can often do this as well but the fuel cost is sufficiently higher that it is rarely done) But you do not save much, if anything on fuel by doing so, so it is ultimately cheaper to just run the nuke plant and save money by not building the solar capacity.
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What Would Be The Effects Of a Scifi Pressor Ray Beam Gun?
Terwin replied to Spacescifi's topic in Science & Spaceflight
Either you have: a) a flashlight that applies less pressure than direct sunlight on a white piece of paper or b) you have the main component of a perpetual motion machine In either case, you have not really given enough information about your magi-tech tool to answer any of your questions. If anything, I would expect your force-gun to have a range of perhaps a couple cm under water as it uses all of its force to push against the water in question(which would then pull you along with the generated flow) Even in air, I would expect the range to be less than a meter, as it pushes against the air(which has mass, and is thus a valid target by your description), so in-short you have a very high-tech fan/propeller blade that breaks the 3rd law of motion(action/reaction), making it much less useful for providing propulsion(unless you are blowing air into a sail). -
How quickly can you get > 3 million of these heater/tank units to New York during a power outage? How long will those tanks last when most of those users have little idea how this thing works? And those will do nothing to prevent pipes from bursting unless you have one for every kitchen and bathroom in the city in addition to the > 3M needed for 1/residence
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Are you willing to shut off your heating for a week or two in the middle of winter in sub-freezing temperatures? (no wind, minimal solar) How about turning off your cooling systems in the middle of summer when it is consistently 110+f during the day and 90+f at night for a week or more? (possibly some wind, too hot for solar) Would you be be ok eating meat from a freezer that has been shut off an unknown number of times for unknown durations before it even gets to your door? Without very stringent laws and a significant loss of quality of life(and lives in general) you will not get demand varying to meet supply any more than we already get with variable pricing. Variable power supplies may be a viable supplement when your have an adjustable supply that has a capped annual output(like hydro that no longer gets enough annual in-flow to handle annual demand), but they can never be more than a supplement to support short-falls in the existing base power. Grid-scale energy storage is completely unrealistic for anything beyond power smoothing and allowing for plant ramp-up time, both of which are measured in seconds or minutes, not days and weeks like you would need for covering variable power supplies.
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Are you suggesting that zero-boiloff technology has advanced to the point that we can store an unpowered, liquid hydrogen fueled vehicle in an unair-conditioned garage in a southern state for days without a need to vent? That should make storing cryogenic hydrogen all the way to Mars pretty simple in comparison.
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Nuclear plants Are cost-prohibitive in the US because the department of energy is both authorized and encouraged to tighten safety requirements any time nuclear becomes cost-competitive with any other power generation system in common use(like when fuel prices spike for existing plants of other types) And they cling to their no-threshold metrics in spite of the substantial and confirmed evidence against them. If the department regulating nuclear power were not incentivized to block future development, it would be much more affordable (but that could undermine the stock value of important donors) CO2 and nitrogen are frozen at MRI temperatures. You need something that can get much colder than those can. You suggest that a hydrogen fueled motorway is not full of ignition sources? How about the enclosed garage where the car is stored over night or while the family is away on holiday? Does hydrogen have a strong scent like spilled petrol does to warn away from turning on the lights?
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A few points: Renewables are not 'free once set up' and you would need grid-scale storage of hydrogen. Hydrogen storage is notoriously difficult even for short-term usage(like single-use rockets) Hydrogen quickly destroys any container that holds it through embrittlelment, and is hard to store long-term because it can slip between the atoms of the storage container. Hydrogen is highly flammable and can explode when mixed with air. In short, even using 'cheap' petroleum sourced hydrogen is completely untenable for consumer use. Hydrogen is a (very bad) storage medium, not an energy source. Even in rocketry, hydrogen is only used by the government and only because it is easier to throw money at the problem instead of finding other solutions. Evidence: MRI machines could be cooled by hydrogen just as well as very expensive helium, but hydrogen just causes too many problems to be cost-effective.
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That is only if you go slow.(like 0.1c or less) Sort of like going over a speed bump at 2mph vs 60mph. The first you might barely notice, and the second could break your axle or your spine. Every body is at the bottom of a well, and if you have no inertial dampeners, then zipping past ceres at near-light speeds might break bones and break off pieces of your ship just due to the rapidly shifting gravity. Fly past a real planet and you can get everyone smeared against the starboard wall of their current room as the ship gets jerks to port because of the the 'gravity pot-hole' created by the planet. And if any other ship uses the same sort of drive, then they might well fling your ship into a star anyway, just because you are unanchored to local space while they are moving in a different direction..
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Except the corporations with the most money to spend on AI will not want any of those pesky ethics or morals you mentioned.
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totm may 2024 [1.12.x] - Modular Kolonization System (MKS)
Terwin replied to RoverDude's topic in KSP1 Mod Releases
The resources themselves never run out, but you can only harvest it so quickly based on how rich it is. Think of it as having a limited number of useful mining sites in the biome for that resource. The mines never run dry, but you can only build so many of them before you run out of veins. -
Without magical inertial dampening(probably an instant reverse gravity effect to counter any impacts, or just a low-level warp effect that dampens inertia directly), you risk having your entire crew being turned to goo any time you pass too close to a nebula at warp speed(or pass through any other significant change in the density of the interstellar medium). This sort of effect would be needed for any sort of super-luminal travel that passes through real space.
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99.86% of the mass of our solar system is in the sun. The remaining 0.14% is orbiting the sun using the net orbital momentum of the starting material. When you only need to orbit 0.14% and you are pulling in particles from thousands of au away, a tiny amount of initial momentum is all you really need. Light pressure from distant stars may well be all it takes. Anything not in the orbital disk will collide with something in the disk and either move closer to the disk, or closer to the sun/escape velocity. Only things with very few chances to interact with the orbital disk will be notably eccentric (like long period commets), as many interactions (collisions or gravitational interactions) will get them lined up with the disk.