Kerbal7

We are going to build an entire city on its side and spin it, on Mars? At some point we must ask ourselves why are we doing this and is it worth it.

How are we getting all of our stuff down on the surface of Mars in one piece to start with? We can put 1 ton down unreliably now. They're trying to up that to 3 tons with the low-density supersonic decelerator. But that's not near enough.

Rockets Are Not Commercialy Safe Not the SLS, not the BFR. None. The BFR is is even bigger than a Saturn V. If there was a fueling or early flight failure this thing would be like a small nuclear device exploding. And you want to have it taking off and landing next to cities. Not on God's green earth.

Everything at Mars wants to kill you. Including the dirt. Mars Surface Is Looking Much Deadlier Than We Previously Thought https://www.sciencealert.com/mars-surface-looks-to-be-much-more-deadly-than-we-previously-thought

How on earth is colonizing that grossly inhospitable red ball good for preserving humans? The atmosphere will kill you. The radiation will kill you. The temperature will kill you. Just bringing some boot dirt into your habitat from a surface stroll will kill you. The long term gravity effects will probably kill you. Can't see it.

True. But that's not as fun.

A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. No one knows the operating cost or safety of rockets until they've been operated. The SLS and Orion are going to be used for real exploration missions. You don't need to launch many SLS rockets a year with this objective. NASA is testing the waters of deep space flight. Not going off half-cocked and getting a bunch of people killed. And NASA is not making ridiculous predictions like, "now loading, gate 39A, Shangai to New York on the new SLS. Sit down and enjoy the flight with a cocktail." like wonder boy. In manned space flight the cost is not the bottom line. Crew safety is.

I see no signs the SLS is a dead man walking. I see NASA making missions designed around it. There is too much momentum, both political and practical behind it to be stopped now. Where do you see signs the SLS project is going to be stopped?

The BFR and SpaceX is seen as a challenger to the SLS and NASA by the dreamers. It's difficult to talk about one without the other as discussion of the two often overlap.

Rockets are extremely dangerous. They are nowhere near safe or convenient enough for commercial flight. That's why the launch pads are kept away from population centers. No one in their rights mind is going to put a BFR rocket port anywhere near a city for commercial travel. So 30 minute commercial flights from L.A. to Tokyo in a BFR are just as fantastical as BFR flights to Mars. Never going to happen.

Just finished reading How we'll live on Mars. One of the more preposterous daydreams of living on Mars is how we'll terraform it. We will build a mirror 300 miles across at Mars. Put it in orbit where it directs sunlight on the South Pole and starts a runaway greenhouse effect that warms the planet up nicely. Mmm'kay. We can't control our own planets atmosphere, so where are we getting the expertise to do it on another? With a 300 mile long mirror no less. Constructed at Mars! Hehe! This is considered "plausible" to the Martian colony dreamers.

From what I can tell, NASA decided on this issue long ago. Its manned deep space exploration missions are going to use the SLS and Orion. The pencils have been put down and they're bending metal. And that's fine with me because I'm ready to go with what we got rather than wait for some other system that is as real as the star-ship Enterprise. Let's go. Let's go to the moon. Let's get this train moving. That's how I feel about it. This does make me think a human rated BFR will never actually be built. NASA has no interest in it. Like I said, they got the rocket they want and the BFR aint it. So who is it for? Colonist going to Mars? That's a pipe dream. Thirty minute flights to Asia? Can you get it to really work, safely? Do you have the money to build the massive infrastructure to service such a thing? Will the general public want to ride a rocket? Will they feel safe enough to get on it? I just asked a girl if she would and she said, "no way." But she feels safe enough to get on a plane for trips.

Depends. Do the raw materials exist on the moon to be extracted, mined and processed into usable building material for my Martian spaceship or ships? Or does some, most, or all need to be sent up from earth? If all my building materials can be found and refined on the moon, how many spaceships am I building for Mars? Is the ship count enough to produce a profit for me after my investment in the infrastructure and operating cost necessary to build the ship or ships?

Why would you put a factory on the moon? No one lives there. And building anything on the Earth is cheaper and easier. So it wouldn't make economic sense to build something on the moon to be shipped to earth.

If I am not mistaken Elon Musk does talk about building "his city" on Mars. Watch this clip and you can clearly hear him say, "one ship, two ships, then we start building up the city." I am too young to have seen the Apollo landings and the space race. So for me it is inspirational and impressive to believe NASA is going to be just flying around the Mun soon. So I don't need pie in the sky talk of building Martian cities from a carnival barker. I want to know where we are really at and for me that is plenty. Flying around the Mun hits my "Cool" button plenty.

I talk about Elon Musk building a colony on Mars because he's always talking about it. I don't see Dennis Muilenburg from Boeing or Tony Bruno from United Launch Alliance talking about building Martian colonies. If they were, I'd be talking about them saying they were unrealistic. Yeah, many people seem to find inspiration in Elon Musk's talk about him building a Martian city in the near future. But I don't because I know it's not even remotely possible. To me he comes across as a P.T.Barnum and Jim Jones mixture. A huckster making predictions and promising miracles he can't possibly deliver. I don't find that inspirational or admirable. Just look around. Do you see anyone else talking about building a city on Mars anytime soon? NASA, ESA, Roscosmos, any of the other contractors? No, not one. Because they know it's loony. When I want a laugh or something to shake my head about regarding Martian missions I listen to Elon Musk. When I want to know what the real capabilities and near future possible missions are I don't.

I wasn't making an opinion on what the death rate would be at a Mars colony. The other person asked what human loss of life would be acceptable today at a Martian colony. I was just saying a large number of lives lost wouldn't be acceptable in today's world like it was in times past.

I heard someone from NASA say there are 40,000 spare parts kept on earth to service the ISS and keep it running. And that's just to keep less than a dozen people alive in low earth orbit. So imagine the spare parts you'd need keeping an entire colony up and running at Mars, 225,000,000km from earth. Assuming they all wouldn't be dying from radiation induced cancer 10 years after you got them there anyways. But Elon Musk is promising everyone 40 acres and a mule with two chickens in every pot on Mars. It's delusional!

Okay, well, maybe before Elon Musk sends giant space freighters to land on Mars to start his Martian city he should focus on being able to put one single person into space and bring them back alive.

I couldn't agree more. This "Colony on Mars" talk is not sensible in the slightest. We don't have anywhere near the capabilities to pull this off even if we earnestly wanted to. I read Scott Kelly's Endurance: A Year In Space and it talks about some of the realities of living on the ISS. If I remember correctly, there are two CO2 scrubbers on the ISS and one of them is broken half the time and needing repair. The CO2 levels on the ISS run very high most times giving headaches and other toxic symptoms. If we can't even keep the CO2 levels on the ISS at a reliably comfortable level 400km from earth, how are we going to do it 225,000,000km from earth?? And that small technical problem is just a snowflake in the blizzard of hurdles needing solved to make a colony happen.

Yeah well, all that sounds really great and easy when Musk delivers the power-point presentation but in the real world things are different. The soft landing success rate at Mars is not good, at all. It's been getting better, but this is still a very high risk operation. No, soft landings on Mars are not all figured out. Not for 1 metric ton landings, and for sure not landing a giant, 150 ton loaded BFS cargo ship. Just in 2016 the Schiaparelli EDM lander crashed and burned trying to soft land on Mars.

Doesn't compare. Your chances of dying in an automobile accident is very low. If someone sets up a colony on Mars and it is suffering a 50%, 60%, 70+% death rate like the age of exploration colonies on earth, that thing is getting shut down by the government yesterday.

I've read a few books on the age of exploration and early colonies. The casualty rates are almost too incredibly high to believe. With modern communication and sensitivities being what they are, there is no way modern people would accept such loss of life. The government would step in and shut that down in a split second even if people where still that adventurous. But people are not that adventurous anyways nowadays.

If he can build the version you're talking about here, yeah that would be great. A kind of giant space truck whose re-usability is actually cheap to use. The space shuttle was supposed to do this and failed miserably. But I think Musk can make this version work. The whole city on Mars thing is like hearing a crazy uncle talk though.

He says this operation starts in 2022. I don't really consider that a long term goal. You? That sounds like a close goal for me.