Progress in trouble

[dryer_lint]

So, haven't checked in on here in a while. Is there any Progress?

Please, kill me now.

BA-DUM, TSSSSSss

[Frida Space]

New update: activation of manual TORU control system failed at 00:50 UTC pass. New data from USSTRATCOM (finally reliable) (188 x 260 km – Inclination: 51.65 deg) suggest that Progress has at least a week before it orbit finally decays, and not a few hours. The orbit parameters suggest a third stage issue with the Soyuz launcher: "It is plausible that issues emerged late in the third stage burn of the Soyuz leading up to a botched separation of the Progress spacecraft, sending the spacecraft into a tumble or causing a re-contact between the Progress and the Block I stage, presumably due to residual thrust after an improper engine shutdown and so damaging equipment on the spacecraft leading up to the loss of communications and possibly upsetting the attitude control system of the craft - explaining a later onset of the spinning motion."

[1greywind]

I must note, that this launch is something special, because it is second Progress launch on Soyuz 2-1a. The main difference between Soyuz 2-1a (launcher involved) and Soyuz FG (launcher, used for Soyuz spacecraft) is in flight computer - FG uses old and proved analog version, 2-1a uses new digital control system.

[Frida Space]

True, however Progress M-25M was a complete success.

- - - Updated - - -

MAJOR UPDATE: "the JSpOC has observed 44 pieces of debris in the vicinity of the resupply vehicle and its upper stage rocket body, however, it cannot confirm at this time if the debris is from the rocket body or vehicle itself" (link), suggest an energetic event.

[Streetwind]

Aaaaand it's going down: http://www.theverge.com/2015/4/29/8513021/russian-spacecraft-out-of-controll

Roscosmos has not officially admitted it unrecoverable at this point, but it's very much pointing towards it. Insider info says it's already starting to suffer from atmospheric drag and may come down as early as May 7th.

Edited April 29, 2015 by Streetwind

[Frida Space]

Best reentry time frame is May 10th, +- 3 days.

[Kryten]

At this point the vehicle has likely either run out of power or is it about to do so.

[Sigma88]

You're a jerk, sir, and made me mad until I tried to quote you.

Then put your hidden text as visible if you're "not serious."

It was intended as a joke

I usually use that trick with "sarcasm", maybe I should have used "JOKING!"

if it was visible I would have missed all the fun

edit

also, note that I put a black dot at the end that was giving away the presence of text there...

[Dodgey]

Aaaaand it's going down: http://www.theverge.com/2015/4/29/8513021/russian-spacecraft-out-of-controll

Roscosmos has not officially admitted it unrecoverable at this point, but it's very much pointing towards it. Insider info says it's already starting to suffer from atmospheric drag and may come down as early as May 7th.

Ooo I wonder if we'll get to fine Russia this time!

[Frida Space]

Sources are saying that Russia has abandoned any hope of gaining back control, however other sources are saying they're still trying.

[Camacha]

Then put your hidden text as visible if you're "not serious."

Let us explain every joke we tell while we are at it

[PakledHostage]

Sources are saying that Russia has abandoned any hope of gaining back control, however other sources are saying they're still trying.

The effort looks to be futile, but imagine if they can pull it off?

[Kryten]

KBKhA, the producers of the third stage engine, are saying that the stage was burning too long due to a control system issue. As Progress separation is done on a simple timer, this would lead to it attempting to separate from a a still-burning stage and being shunted about by it.

[Camacha]

KBKhA, the producers of the third stage engine, are saying that the stage was burning too long due to a control system issue. As Progress separation is done on a simple timer, this would lead to it attempting to separate from a a still-burning stage and being shunted about by it.

Sounds like the new craft design is causing trouble.

[Frida Space]

Roscosmos said that they saw signs of depresurizzation in the propulsion system of the Progress. Telemetry data looked fine until 1.5 seconds after separation.

[micha]

separate from a a still-burning stage and being shunted about by it.

So basically, someone pressed SPACE too early?

[1greywind]

Roscosmos said that they saw signs of depresurizzation in the propulsion system of the Progress. Telemetry data looked fine until 1.5 seconds after separation.

Not "after" but "before" separation: "Úþüðрþò þтüõтøû, чтþ тõûõüõтрøѠѠúþрðñûѠÿрþÿðûð ÷ð ÿþûтþры ÑÂõúуýôы ôþ õóþ þтôõûõýøѠþт рðúõты-ýþÑÂøтõûѠ"áþю÷-2.1ð". "ÃلĄÂú ø ÿþûõт рðúõты úþÑÂüøчõÑÂúþóþ ýð÷ýðчõýøѠÿрþхþôøû ò штðтýþü рõöøüõ, þôýðúþ ÷ð ÿþûтþры ÑÂõúуýôы ôþ рðÑÂчõтýþóþ òрõüõýø þтôõûõýøѠúþрðñûѠþт трõтьõù ÑÂтуÿõýø ÷ðфøúÑÂøрþòðýþ ÿрþÿðôðýøõ тõûõüõтрøчõÑÂúþù øýфþрüðцøø. ßрø ÑÂтþü òÿþÑÂûõôÑÂтòøø ñыûþ уÑÂтðýþòûõýþ, чтþ þтôõûõýøõ трðýÑÂÿþртýþóþ óру÷þòþóþ úþрðñûѠÿрþшûþ ÑÂòþõòрõüõýýþ", - ÑÂúð÷ðû óûðòð àþÑÂúþÑÂüþÑÂð.

[Jovus]

"Rotational spin."

Is there some other kind of spin he's differentiating it from? (Serious question. Common usage would say 'no', but he seems to be using it as a technical term?)

[Frida Space]

Not "after" but "before" separation: "Úþüðрþò þтüõтøû, чтþ тõûõüõтрøѠѠúþрðñûѠÿрþÿðûð ÷ð ÿþûтþры ÑÂõúуýôы ôþ õóþ þтôõûõýøѠþт рðúõты-ýþÑÂøтõûѠ"áþю÷-2.1ð". "ÃلĄÂú ø ÿþûõт рðúõты úþÑÂüøчõÑÂúþóþ ýð÷ýðчõýøѠÿрþхþôøû ò штðтýþü рõöøüõ, þôýðúþ ÷ð ÿþûтþры ÑÂõúуýôы ôþ рðÑÂчõтýþóþ òрõüõýø þтôõûõýøѠúþрðñûѠþт трõтьõù ÑÂтуÿõýø ÷ðфøúÑÂøрþòðýþ ÿрþÿðôðýøõ тõûõüõтрøчõÑÂúþù øýфþрüðцøø. ßрø ÑÂтþü òÿþÑÂûõôÑÂтòøø ñыûþ уÑÂтðýþòûõýþ, чтþ þтôõûõýøõ трðýÑÂÿþртýþóþ óру÷þòþóþ úþрðñûѠÿрþшûþ ÑÂòþõòрõüõýýþ", - ÑÂúð÷ðû óûðòð àþÑÂúþÑÂüþÑÂð.

oh interesing. thanks for the correction!

In the meanwhile, Soyuz third stage has reentered in Earth's atmosphere. source

[meve12]

"Rotational spin."

Is there some other kind of spin he's differentiating it from? (Serious question. Common usage would say 'no', but he seems to be using it as a technical term?)

That is an odd way to put "arse over tea kettle."

[Leszek]

So basically, someone pressed SPACE too early?

They needed to install sensible pumps. A very good mod, it makes such mistakes recoverable if you have enough fuel margin.

[monstah]

Ooo I wonder if we'll get to fine Russia this time!

Ohgod, no one else noticed this gem??

[Kryten]

The progress is predicted to re-enter in the 5-7th May timeframe.

[Mitchz95]

So where's it going to land?

[Kryten]

Way too early to tell. That timeframe is about fifty orbits, it probably covers the entire earth (within 52 degrees north or south).