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Progress in trouble

Kryten

By Kryten
in Science & Spaceflight

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Kryten

Kryten

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I hope it will hit my house. I wouldn't mind getting lots of money from Russia.

There's maybe a ton of propellant left in that thing. If it freezes, significant quantities could survive re-entry. Not something you want anywhere near inhabited areas.

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hugix

hugix

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I doubt anything will make it back to Earth. the re entry path will have a very low angle and the fact that it's spinning will heat all sides of the craft, making sure debris on the top half won't be protected by the lower part of the craft.

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K^2

K^2

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I doubt anything will make it back to Earth. the re entry path will have a very low angle and the fact that it's spinning will heat all sides of the craft, making sure debris on the top half won't be protected by the lower part of the craft.

Current rotation will become completely irrelevant during re-entry. It will all be up to aerodynamics. And while it's certainly not going to land in one chunk, there is a high probability of significant debris reaching ground. So if it happens to deorbit over densely populated area, there could be damage.

Responsible thing would be to shoot it down once it's bellow 150km or so. It'd be a very good test for anti-ICBM systems, and any debris it produces would be guaranteed to rapidly re-enter and burn up. I'm sure both US and China have systems they'd be happy to try out on such a nice target.

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lajoswinkler

lajoswinkler

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There's maybe a ton of propellant left in that thing. If it freezes, significant quantities could survive re-entry. Not something you want anywhere near inhabited areas.

Yeah, I know. I have plenty of annoying people around my house and a gas mask. Bring it on. :cool:

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LordFerret

LordFerret

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Current rotation will become completely irrelevant during re-entry. It will all be up to aerodynamics. And while it's certainly not going to land in one chunk, there is a high probability of significant debris reaching ground. So if it happens to deorbit over densely populated area, there could be damage.

Responsible thing would be to shoot it down once it's bellow 150km or so. It'd be a very good test for anti-ICBM systems, and any debris it produces would be guaranteed to rapidly re-enter and burn up. I'm sure both US and China have systems they'd be happy to try out on such a nice target.

I would think that, unless there's a serious chance of risk to a major population center (wherever that may be), they would want to see as much of it survive reentry as possible ... if for no other reason, to perhaps figure out why things went wrong. Yes?/No?

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K^2

K^2

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I would think that, unless there's a serious chance of risk to a major population center (wherever that may be), they would want to see as much of it survive reentry as possible ... if for no other reason, to perhaps figure out why things went wrong. Yes?/No?

I don't think enough of the ship will survive re-entry and impact to make it possible to distinguish pre- and post- re-entry damage. The most believable version so far is that damage was done by collision with third stage during separation, perhaps, due to third stage engines not shutting down correctly. If so, any clues to the causes would far more likely be discovered on the third stage itself, but these things are designed to thoroughly disintegrate during re-entry.

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Frida Space

Frida Space

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Re-Entry Predictions

Updated: May 1, 2015 - 10:00 UTC

Current Orbit: 182.7 x 247.3 Kilometers, 51.645°

Latest Re-Entry Predictions:

Spaceflight101: May 10, 2015 - 12:15 UTC +/-3 Days [issued: May 1]

Satflare/Joseph Remis: May 10, 2015 - 17:05 UTC +/-52 Hours [issued May 1]

USSTRATCOM: May 9, 2015 - 17:33 UTC +/-6 Days [issued: April 29, 17:47]

Roscosmos: Initially: May 7-11, Revised: May 5-7 [issued: April 29]

ESA: May 9, 2015 +/-2 Days [issued: April 30]

Re-Entry Location: No Prediction possible yet

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Kryten

Kryten

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In the past couple of days russian ground controllers managed to contact the vehicle, retrieve telemetry, and reconfigure the system usually used to supply the ISS to feed the thrusters; however, they failed to actually stop the spin. Looks like that was the last chance to get some control, but at least it should help the failure investigation.

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Frida Space

Frida Space

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Pardon me if I missed the answer, but is there at least a hope of the astronauts surviving re-entry? Or the capsule decoupler and parachutes are also malfunctioning?

It's a Progress, not a Soyuz. No one on board.

Ninja'dd

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Redjoker

Redjoker

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Pardon me if I missed the answer, but is there at least a hope of the astronauts surviving re-entry? Or the capsule decoupler and parachutes are also malfunctioning?

Progress is an unmanned cargo vehicle intended to burn up in the atmosphere after it completes it's mission, so no worries about loss of life and no need for parachutes

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