Wt1190f

[LordFerret]

No, not the foul slang you're all familiar with.

... is the nickname for WT1190F, an unknown object, a NEO, which is due to enter Earth's atmosphere on November 13 2015. Providing it doesn't burn up in the atmosphere, it may impact Earth, landing in the ocean south of Sri Lanka. Current speculation seems to be that they think it's an old Saturn booster stage (used to send men to the moon)... but truth is they have no idea what it is (yet).

More info - http://www.nature.com/news/incoming-space-junk-a-scientific-opportunity-1.18642

Any KSP'er who lives in Sri Lanka or southern India, you might have a unique opportunity to witness this thing's reentry into the atmosphere.

EDIT:

Apparently the word filter didn't like the nickname so it got censured. To figure out what it was, remove the "1190" from the title name.

Edited October 26, 2015 by LordFerret
The forum software didn't like the title...

[Kryten]

It doesn't seem big enough to be a Saturn S-IVB; could be something left over from a robotic mission, like a Soviet Blok L from one of the dozens of Luna mission, or a much more recent CZ-3B/C upper stage. Could even be the Apollo 10 LEM ascent stage, which is still knocking about somewhere in solar orbit.

[Mitchz95]

How is this thing going to re-enter if it's supposedly in high orbit?

[magnemoe]

0.7-3.3 meter is far to small for an saturn 5 3rd stage. An transfer stage for an Moon probe sounds more likely.

[Kryten]

How is this thing going to re-enter if it's supposedly in high orbit?

Orbits at that altitude are extremely unstable, the moon pushes anything out there into earth or into solar orbit before long. This one's already been perturbed into a high-apogee collision course.

[magnemoe]

How is this thing going to re-enter if it's supposedly in high orbit?

Probably got an orbital change from moon.

[Streetwind]

According to that article, it's too small to be a spent stage (only 1-2 meters), but it might be an interstage fairing or other smaller object created while ditching a larger stage. From which mission, nobody knows.

Still, I'm impressd they are confident enough with their reentry prediction to name a position down to the kilometer, and a time down to the minute. That's rare indeed! Let's hope the skies are clear and the show good for the astronomers awaiting the event

EDIT: wow, sniped hard!

[Nibb31]

0.7-3.3 meter is far to small for an saturn 5 3rd stage. An transfer stage for an Moon probe sounds more likely.

Or it could be an SLA panel. Or it might be Apollo 10 LM "Snoopy".

I hope they manage to get some telescope-based pictures to identify it.

Edited October 26, 2015 by Nibb31

[sgt_flyer]

Well, seems ESA will be watching it during reentry (for studying how it reenters earth atmosphere), so we might have more infos on what it really is once it gets closer to earth - though, it'll be daytime at this point (around midday local time) - so i don't know how much amateur telescopes will be able to see.

Weather predictions in sri lanka (colombo) seems a bit bad currently though for observations from ground.

http://m.accuweather.com/en/lk/colombo/311399/daily-weather-forecast/311399?day=19

And with thunderclouds in the area, even observation planes might have a hard time.

Edited October 26, 2015 by sgt_flyer

[Frida Space]

Weather predictions in sri lanka (colombo) seems a bit bad currently though for observations from ground.

http://m.accuweather.com/en/lk/colombo/311399/daily-weather-forecast/311399?day=19

A few years back my science teacher was a meteorologist (as in, studied weather, atmosphere interactions etc) and told me to never trust weather forecasts more than 3-5 days in advance. I don't know how much progress we've done in a couple of years, but I think that checking how the weather's going to be like on November 13 some 20 days earlier is a bit too much.

[sgt_flyer]

that's why i precised : currently

ISS would be somewhere above eastern europe at the time of reentry (according to this tool : https://www.calsky.com/cs.cgi) (don't forget to set the time zone as UTC ^^)

Edited October 26, 2015 by sgt_flyer

[Frida Space]

that's why i precised : currently

ISS would be somewhere above eastern europe at the time of reentry (according to this tool : https://www.calsky.com/cs.cgi)

Would be cool if they managed to get a photo of it, provided that it does turn into a fireball!

[sgt_flyer]

i think it will be happenning beyond the horizon for ISS unfortunately (afterwards, maybe they'll have another satellite with a correct line of sight on it )

Edited October 26, 2015 by sgt_flyer

[p1t1o]

A few years back my science teacher was a meteorologist (as in, studied weather, atmosphere interactions etc) and told me to never trust weather forecasts more than 3-5 days in advance. I don't know how much progress we've done in a couple of years, but I think that checking how the weather's going to be like on November 13 some 20 days earlier is a bit too much.

Word.

I remember reading an article about a year ago, it was about the met offices brand shiny new weather prediction algorithm, "The most advanced weather prediction software in the world!" it proclaimed (paraphrasing)..."now up to 50% accurate!"

[StrandedonEarth]

I've heard (forgot the source) that the Indian Ocean is more predictable than most places.

[Laie]

I remember reading an article about a year ago, it was about the met offices brand shiny new weather prediction algorithm, "The most advanced weather prediction software in the world!" it proclaimed (paraphrasing)..."now up to 50% accurate!"

Our weather service provides predictions for three days, and a general outlook for at least another seven. That outlook can be so vague that one may hesitate to dub it a forecast, or very precise for up to two weeks out. Obviously some weather patterns are a lot easier to predict than others, and you don't need to be a meteorologist to tell which is which from the kind of forecast they make.

That said, a quick look at climate charts indicates that the rainy season in Sri Lanka typically has it's peak in November. That is by no means a prediction, but if I had to place a bet...

[LordFerret]

I tend to agree with the pessimistic views on weather accuracy... the day before might be the time for an educated guess.

I also find it interesting how much of the information on this 'object' is speculation: its size, its mass, even its orbit (history) is questionable - they've lost track of it at least twice. Those tracking it, in allegedly knowing its approximate size, how and why would they come up with a guess it being a spent Saturn booster and announce as such? To me it seems pretty clear - they don't have a clue what it is, and we'll likely not know until the very last minute lol.

[Kryten]

We know from the radar returns that is definitely not a Saturn upper stage, nobody is saying it is.

[LordFerret]

From the article I posted - "It could be a spent rocket stage or panelling shed by a recent Moon mission."

Three other articles I read online about it pretty much made the same inference.

...which is why I said that.

I'm inclined to agree with you however.

[Kryten]

Again, nobody is saying Saturn upper stage. There are many more upper stages flying around out there, many of which are in the right size range for this, like soviet Blok L and Blok D's. Moon mission does not mean Apollo.

[sgt_flyer]

Edit : kryten beat me to it

Here's a non complete list of some rocket stages other than Saturn's upper stages that went to the moon: Blok E's (Voskhod - Luna) Blok L's (Molnyia - Luna) Blok D's (Proton - Zond & Luna) Juno-II 4th stage (pioneer) Agena-B & agena D (atlas (s)LV-3 - ranger / lunar orbiter) centaur-D (Atlas LV-3C surveyor) and i'm still missing some of them - still, we sent an awful lot of probes with their transfer stages towards the moon already ^^ and a lot of them have the roughly the correct size

Edited October 27, 2015 by sgt_flyer

[Laie]

how and why would they come up with a guess it being a spent Saturn booster and announce as such?

From the article I posted - "It could be a spent rocket stage or panelling shed by a recent Moon mission."

I take "recent" to be important. AFAIK no Saturn rockets went to the moon recently. But I can totally understand how someone can jump from "moon rocket" to saturn.

[K^2]

Still, I'm impressd they are confident enough with their reentry prediction to name a position down to the kilometer, and a time down to the minute. That's rare indeed! Let's hope the skies are clear and the show good for the astronomers awaiting the event

Typical reentry trajectories are difficult to predict because they are so much at the mercy of upper reaches of atmosphere. This thing is coming back from highly elliptical orbit. That means, in all likelihood, very steep re-entry at very nearly the escape velocity. Atmosphere will have little effect on the impact location. The rest is up to having enough tracking data to predict the trajectory up to reentry.

[Damien_The_Unbeliever]

I also find it interesting how much of the information on this 'object' is speculation: its size, its mass, even its orbit (history) is questionable

Okay, so how would *you* measure the mass remotely? Remember, mass doesn't affect the orbit.

[Frida Space]

Okay, so how would *you* measure the mass remotely? Remember, mass doesn't affect the orbit.

Knowing a few orbitals parameters should yield the mass of the object, *me thinks*. I think that's what the standard gravitational parameter is for?

/possibly completely wrong