Blue Origin Thread (merged)

[Tullius]

1 hour ago, Mitchz95 said:

On a related topic, I'm starting to get more concerned that this moonshot will widen the rift between SpaceX and NASA. SpaceX is already seen as the rock stars of the space industry, making rapid progress and doing stuff that wouldn't be out of place in a sci-fi movie, while NASA takes its time and works on a rocket/spacecraft duo that's quickly becoming a lemon. If SLS ends up being cancelled, justified or not, right as SpaceX does another Apollo 8, it would be a huge PR blow for NASA.

Worst-case scenario, NASA could actually drop SpaceX and hope the upstarts will just go away. So now SpaceX is dead, ULA tears up the Vulcan because it's no longer needed to be competitive, and we're right back where we started. (Well, there's still Blue Origin, but they don't have anywhere near the star power SpaceX does.)

Don't fall for the tricks of SpaceX's PR department: They want to be seen as the rock stars, while in fact there are lot of companies out there doing this kind of stuff. The only difference is that SpaceX has the funding, and for the funding they need the PR stunts.

SpaceX won't enter lunar orbit, as did Apollo 8 or Orion will. But still, it will a PR blow for NASA.

But also remember that SpaceX needs NASA, due to the billions of dollars NASA already pumped and still will pump into SpaceX. Without NASA, Musk would still play with toy rockets instead of real rockets. With that background, it is also no wonder that, according to Scott Manley, SpaceX is offering NASA the two seats on this lunar flight, forcing the two billionaires to a later flight, if NASA is willing to pay. This clearly shows who has the most money, and that is not the two billionaires.

NASA won't drop SpaceX, even if it would mean that it would lose a "competitor", since that would mean that they lose their chance of a pure American access to the ISS and, let's not forget, SpaceX is responsible for 5000 jobs in the space industry, so the Senate wouldn't tolerate such a behavior from NASA. So NASA might decide to not fund ITS, in order to keep SpaceX away from the big milestones, but they won't drop the support for SpaceX's LEO operations.

So don't wonder, if, during the coverage of that Moon mission, SpaceX is constantly thanking NASA for their support, even if NASAs biggest contribution would be the communication links.

Edited February 28, 2017 by Tullius

[tater]

Wonder if there is a betting pool on how many months (10s of months?) Elon's 2018 goal is off by?

[mikegarrison]

55 minutes ago, Tullius said:

NASA won't drop SpaceX, even if it would mean that it would lose a "competitor", since that would mean that they lose their chance of a pure American access to the ISS

SpaceX is not the only chance for "pure American" access to the ISS. (Although I'm not sure what you mean by "pure American". I assuming from context you mean "not Russia".) In fact, both SpaceX and Boeing currently have contracts to carry passengers to the ISS.

[Rakaydos]

15 minutes ago, mikegarrison said:

SpaceX is not the only chance for "pure American" access to the ISS. (Although I'm not sure what you mean by "pure American". I assuming from context you mean "not Russia".) In fact, both SpaceX and Boeing currently have contracts to carry passengers to the ISS.

Presumably he means "Not using russian rocket engines on their american rockets"

[Kryten]

3 hours ago, Nibb31 said:

The term "astronaut" currently refers to anyone who flies over the Karman line. That's fine with me.

Problem is there are two competing definitions. There's that definition and there's the definition of astronaut as a job; very few people would tell you that the people in NASA's astronaut corps aren't astronauts, but most of them haven't been to space.

[mikegarrison]

1 hour ago, Rakaydos said:

Presumably he means "Not using russian rocket engines on their american rockets"

As I understand it, ULA is working with Blue Origin on a replacement for the RD-180, if that's what you are referring to. They have also announced that they could potentially produce the RD-180 themselves, in Alabama.

Edited February 28, 2017 by mikegarrison

[_Augustus_]

4 minutes ago, mikegarrison said:

they could potentially produce the RD-180 themselves, in Alabama.

It wouldn't be an RD-180 if it was produced in Alabama....

[mikegarrison]

3 minutes ago, _Augustus_ said:

It wouldn't be an RD-180 if it was produced in Alabama....

Well, maybe they would call it something else, but the idea was that they would be produced under license, to get around the political issues of importing them. But it sounds like they would rather develop a new first stage based on the BE-4.

Edited February 28, 2017 by mikegarrison

[kerbiloid]

While Dragon prepares to reach the Moon in 2018,  in NASA

Quote

A new agreement to purchase flights from Boeing to the International Space Station on a Soyuz spacecraft will allow NASA to maximize time dedicated to scientific research by increasing crew size on the U.S. segment from three to four. The additional flights will take place in 2017 and 2018. The agreement includes an option to be exercised by fall 2017 for additional seats in 2019. The 2019 seats could be used to smooth transition to U.S. commercial transportation services.

I find such lack of faith disturbing...

[Wjolcz]

1 hour ago, kerbiloid said:

While Dragon prepares to reach the Moon in 2018,  in NASA

I find such lack of faith disturbing...

So Starliner will be launched on top of Soyuz?

EDIT: OK, I misunderstood it. Thought that Starliner is going to use the Russian rocket and it's just that the launches will be more frequent.

But that leaves me thinking on top of what rocket will Starliner be launched?

Edited March 2, 2017 by Veeltch

[kerbiloid]

19 minutes ago, Veeltch said:

So Starliner will be launched on top of Soyuz?

Subcontract, as I can understand why the Boeing is mentioned at all. If I get it right, Boeing has 2017 crewed contracts and initiates reselling part of them to Roscosmos. But it's just my understanding of the text.
Anyway looks like NASA is not such optimistic about DragonMoon-2018.

Edited March 2, 2017 by kerbiloid

[Tullius]

1 hour ago, kerbiloid said:

While Dragon prepares to reach the Moon in 2018,  in NASA

I find such lack of faith disturbing...

Why? Those additionnal flights were made possible by of the reduction in the Russian crews (from 3 to 2), due to budget cuts. So instead of flying some Soyuz missions with only 2 crew members, NASA purchased the third seat.

Also both Dragon 2 and CST-100 are intended to do their first manned flight in May, resp. August 2018. CST-100s first flight to ISS is even only scheduled for December 2018.

In short, the flights that NASA booked now will occur before Dragon and CST-100 can fly according to a regular schedule to ISS. And the option of the 2019 flights is if the schedules at SpaceX or Boeing will slip.

Considering that by this 4 out of 6 permanent crew members will either be US or from US partners, there is maybe more available for SpaceX and Boeing than replacing 2 out of 4 Soyuz flights done every year.

[kerbiloid]

I have no doubt that CST-100 will fly in 1-2 years.
But afaik before conquering the Moon in 2018, SpaceX has 2 or 3 booked ISS crewed flights, on a spaceship yet haven't flown. Probably, SpaceX personnel should work 24/7 25/8 to reach the Moon.

[Kryten]

Boeing owns several Soyuz seats because they were part of an agreement over the debt from sea launch. It has nothing to do with Starliner.

[Nibb31]

57 minutes ago, Veeltch said:

But that leaves me thinking on top of what rocket will Starliner be launched?

Atlas V

[Exoscientist]

This might be doable with a single Falcon 9 v1.2 and Dragon V2:

According to the SpaceX site, the F9 v1.2 can get 8,300 kg, 18,300 lb, to geosynchronous transfer orbit (GTO).

GTO is an intermediate orbit to GEO frequently used for communications satellites.

It takes about 2,500 delta-v to get to GTO and about 3,100 m/s delta-v to reach the Moon, translunar injection. So you would need about 600 m/s additional delta-v to get to the Moon.

The Dragon V2 is said to carry 1,390 kg of propellant for its Superdraco thrusters. The Isp of the Superdracos is only 240s at sea level. But with just a nozzle extension we can get the vacuum Isp to the 320 s range.

Then the delta-v possible for a 6,400 metric ton dry mass Dragon V2 would be:

320*9.81ln(1 + 1,390/(6400)) = 616.9 m/s.

This is just barely enough. But rocket engineers always like to carry some extra fuel on flights. Also that calculation doesn't even include the weight of the astronauts. We could store some extra fuel in the trunk of the Dragon. If we had 1,600 kg total propellant in the Dragon and trunk then we could get a delta-v of

320*9.81ln(1 + 1,600/(6400 +200)) = 681 m/s.

This would allow 200 kg more for the astronauts and supplies.

 

  Bob Clark

Edited March 2, 2017 by Exoscientist

[Wjolcz]

8 minutes ago, Exoscientist said:

This might be doable with a single Falcon 9 v1.2 and Dragon V2:

According to the SpaceX site, the F9 v1.2 can get 8,300 kg, 18,300 lb, to geosynchronous transfer orbit (GTO).

GTO is an intermediate orbit to GEO frequently used for communications satellites.

It takes about 2,500 delta-v to get to GTO and about 3,100 m/s delta-v to get to reach the Moon, translunar injection. So you would need about 600 m/s additional delta-v to get to the Moon.

The Dragon V2 is said to carry 1,390 kg of propellant for its Superdraco thrusters. The Isp of the Superdracos is only 240s at sea level. But with just a nozzle extension we can get the vacuum Isp to the 320 s range.

Then the delta-v possible for a 6,400 metric ton dry mass Dragon V2 would be:

320*9.81ln(1 + 1,390/(6400)) = 616.9 m/s.

This is just barely enough. But rocket engineers always like to carry some extra fuel on flights. Also that calculation doesn't even include the weight of the astronauts. We could store some extra fuel in the trunk of the Dragon. If we had 1,600 kg total propellant in the Dragon and trunk then we could get a delta-v of

320*9.81ln(1 + 1,600/(6400 +200)) = 681 m/s.

This would allow 200 kg more for the astronauts and supplies.

 

  Bob Clark

What if they used expendable F9 FT and use every single litre of fuel the second stage carries? AFAIK it always has some spare fuel they use to deorbit it after GTO missions. Since this would be a free-return trajectory the second stage would fly by the Moon, go back and burn in the atmosphere anyway.

[Streetwind]

15 minutes ago, Exoscientist said:

This might be doable with a single Falcon 9 v1.2 and Dragon V2:

According to the SpaceX site, the F9 v1.2 can get 8,300 kg, 18,300 lb, to geosynchronous transfer orbit (GTO).

GTO is an intermediate orbit to GEO frequently used for communications satellites.

It takes about 2,500 delta-v to get to GTO and about 3,100 m/s delta-v to get to reach the Moon, translunar injection. So you would need about 600 m/s additional delta-v to get to the Moon.

The Dragon V2 is said to carry 1,390 kg of propellant for its Superdraco thrusters. The Isp of the Superdracos is only 240s at sea level. But with just a nozzle extension we can get the vacuum Isp to the 320 s range.

Then the delta-v possible for a 6,400 metric ton dry mass Dragon V2 would be:

320*9.81ln(1 + 1,390/(6400)) = 616.9 m/s.

This is just barely enough. But rocket engineers always like to carry some extra fuel on flights. Also that calculation doesn't even include the weight of the astronauts. We could store some extra fuel in the trunk of the Dragon. If we had 1,600 kg total propellant in the Dragon and trunk then we could get a delta-v of

320*9.81ln(1 + 1,600/(6400 +200)) = 681 m/s.

This would allow 200 kg more for the astronauts and supplies.

 

  Bob Clark

There may be something more to this that we can't see, because SpaceX has already confirmed that this will fly on Falcon Heavy. Perhaps the customers want the propulsive landing experience, so the SuperDracons can't be used for in-space propulsion? </speculation>

[Gkirmathal]

Probably an impossible idea: but couldn't they rework the the upper stage, to be able to be robotically refueled? And device a way to make the the Merlin 1D Vac not freeze up so it can be easily restarted.

Launch a refueling craft to GTO (or what is useful) and let the Moon mission rendezvous with it. Robotically refuel it's second stage and progress with the mission.

[kerbiloid]

10 minutes ago, Gkirmathal said:

Probably an impossible idea: but couldn't they rework the the upper stage, to be able to be robotically refueled? And device a way to make the the Merlin 1D Vac not freeze up so it can be easily restarted.

Launch a refueling craft to GTO (or what is useful) and let the Moon mission rendezvous with it. Robotically refuel it's second stage and progress with the mission.

Space X yet haven't docked to ISS even once. All Dragons have been berthed by an arm.

http://www.floridatoday.com/story/tech/science/space/spacex/2017/02/23/spacex-dragon-arrives-safely-iss/98290822/

Edited March 2, 2017 by kerbiloid

[magnemoe]

21 minutes ago, Streetwind said:

There may be something more to this that we can't see, because SpaceX has already confirmed that this will fly on Falcon Heavy. Perhaps the customers want the propulsive landing experience, so the SuperDracons can't be used for in-space propulsion? </speculation>

Probably as the margins on using an falcon 9 is to small. vacuum isp might well be lower. 
Sending an unmanned dragon 2 around the moon with falcon heavy would also be an nice way to test both systems.
Now I would liked to enter an moon orbit to get more quality time but not sure about dV requirements here. 
 

[Gkirmathal]

1 minute ago, kerbiloid said:

Space X yet haven't docked to ISS even once. All Dragons have been berthed by an arm.

Yes yes I know

That's why I asked the question, cause they want to develop such refueling tech for their Mars space ship concept. So maybe they could start of small, with this by developing such tech and adopting it to current F9 upper stage.

[kerbiloid]

They can add arms to the Dragon-2: to berth itself to ISS or to catch the refueling barrel.

[Streetwind]

One large, overly muscly arm ought to be enough for that, yeah.

 

(Oh lord am I dating myself? )

 

Edited March 2, 2017 by Streetwind

[Exoscientist]

59 minutes ago, Streetwind said:

There may be something more to this that we can't see, because SpaceX has already confirmed that this will fly on Falcon Heavy. Perhaps the customers want the propulsive landing experience, so the SuperDracons can't be used for in-space propulsion? </speculation>

 The Isp (specific impulse) of the Superdracos is pretty poor, only 240s at sea level. This means they would be too inefficient to use in vacuum. You would have to use nozzle extensions for this plan to work.

 That would be extra development work on the Dragon. Perhaps SpaceX just wants to take the simple approach of just using the Falcon Heavy. However, I'm not too sanguine on using the FH on a manned mission when it will have such few flights behind it. 

 

  Bob Clark

Edited March 2, 2017 by Exoscientist