Weather Chat Megathread

[ProtoJeb21]

I managed to find a water vapor radar image of the Atlantic Ocean. Images like this and more can be found here: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/trop-atl.html

Irma's new eye is shows up quite well on this image. However, what's most important is how much moisture is in Irma's path. Currently it's inching towards a rather dry area of the atmosphere, but it looks like the extratropical cyclone at 25N/53.5W may help provide much needed moisture for the system. In addition, while dry air is progressing further into the Caribbean, the Flash WV Satellite Loop shows that the moisture-rich clump of thunderstorms currently at about 27N/57.5W will continue to flare up and push into the area around Puerto Rico and the Lesser Antilles. This is exactly where Irma is headed. So, based of this, it seems like the storm will probably be in an environment moist enough for continued intensification.

[SaturnianBlue]

It's already rapidly intensifying? I wonder if it'll be a top-end cat 3 or even a 4 in the next advisory.

Also, here's a good site for seeing the model runs.

[ProtoJeb21]

12 minutes ago, SaturnianBlue said:

It's already rapidly intensifying? I wonder if it'll be a top-end cat 3 or even a 4 in the next advisory.

Also, here's a good site for seeing the model runs.

I'm just assuming that Rapid Intensification is starting again. Also...

*looks at Weather Channel visible satellite*

WHERE DID THE EYE GO?

EDIT: Tropical Storm Lidia is even bigger, with a wind radius of almost 200 miles!

Edited September 1, 2017 by ProtoJeb21

[ProtoJeb21]

Hurricane Irma has returned to Major Hurricane status, and has surpassed its initial peak intensity with winds of 120 mph and a pressure of 962 mbar. It looks like rapid intensification is once again starting, as evident by a clear and shrinking eye.

[ProtoJeb21]

Okay, this is getting quite ridiculous. Hurricane Irma has been swapping between Category 2 and 3 status several times during the last 24 hours. However, based on its compact and almost symmetrical structure with powerful Eyewall thunderstorms and a deep eye, Irma might be starting to rapidly intensify again. It's starting to look a lot like Hurricane Lester when it rapidly intensified after an Eyewall Replacement Cycle.

Also, the spaghetti models are now more in favor for a landfall anywhere from Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states. Oh snap.

Edited September 2, 2017 by ProtoJeb21

[tater]

If it stays centered on the current nhc track it will be good for the windwards and PR, since they'll just get the sw margin of the storm. Maybe it'll turn north and not hit the US...

[SaturnianBlue]

6 minutes ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

Okay, this is getting quite ridiculous. Hurricane Irma has been swapping between Category 2 and 3 status several times during the last 24 hours. However, based on its compact and almost symmetrical structure with powerful Eyewall thunderstorms and a deep eye, Irma might be starting to rapidly intensify again. It's starting to look a lot like Hurricane Lester when it rapidly intensified after an Eyewall Replacement Cycle.

Also, the spaghetti models are now more in favor for a landfall anywhere from Florida to the Mid-Atlantic states. Oh snap.

How many eyeball replacement cycles has this thing undergone? It seems like each time the cycle completes, a new one begins...

[ProtoJeb21]

42 minutes ago, SaturnianBlue said:

How many eyeball replacement cycles has this thing undergone? It seems like each time the cycle completes, a new one begins...

I think the main issue is that patch of dry air I mentioned yesterday. In fact, with the latest advisory, Irma's pressure has slightly increased by a few millibars, although it is expected to become at Category 4 by Tuesday or Wednesday.

[ProtoJeb21]

Ummm...bad news. Water Vapor radar images show that Irma now has a "blob" on its right side. Hurricane Matthew also had one, which acted as extra tropical cyclone fuel and caused it to rapidly intensify into a Category 5 hurricane. In a day or two, Irma will briefly enter absolutely PERFECT conditions for tropical cyclone growth, which is where the effects of the Blob will likely take full effect.

[tater]

The current tracking makes a landfall more likely, too, vs turning N and missing everyone.

Anyone on the East coast should pay very close attention over the next days, and use this week wisely as the tracking narrows.

[The Space Dino]

Well, lucky for me my country is placed in the middle of a bunch of islands so it's basically hard for any sort of hurricane to come by (they don't head my way) although the occasional thunderstorm does flood some places and blow things loose.

[tater]

The euro models are almost all a north turn, maybe skimming the coast, whereas the gfs models are all over the place smacking into the coast from FL to New Jersey...

The Bahamas are realistically gonna get smacked around, but there's a good chance this stays out to sea.

[qzgy]

56 minutes ago, tater said:

Anyone on the East coast

Aw crap. Seem to be in the area if not hit directly, kinda nearby to where the storm might hit. Gonna watch carefully....

Hoping this is more like Irene, and a large shower rather than Sandy.

[ProtoJeb21]

7 hours ago, qzgy said:

Aw crap. Seem to be in the area if not hit directly, kinda nearby to where the storm might hit. Gonna watch carefully....

Hoping this is more like Irene, and a large shower rather than Sandy.

Irene was still a destructive, multi-billion dollar storm. This is the LAST thing America needs after Hurricane Harvey and all the economic impacts it will continue to have.

[qzgy]

23 minutes ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

Irene was still a destructive, multi-billion dollar storm. This is the LAST thing America needs after Hurricane Harvey and all the economic impacts it will continue to have.

True. Harvey sucks, and if this hits, its gonna suck more.

[SaturnianBlue]

Hurricane watches have been issued for the Leewards. The first recon flight pass gives a pressure reading of 958.6, which is something like a whole ten millibars lower than expected, and winds of 98 knots. The NHC's map for the wind field shows that Irma's has expanded, along with a huge burst of convection. Since Irma's getting ever closer to warmer waters, I think it's going to be mostly strengthening from here, and while I don't really believe that Irma will end up like the current GFS runs (a sub-900 mb Cat 5 off the east coast), it'll very likely surpass Harvey in intensity.

Edited September 3, 2017 by SaturnianBlue

[ProtoJeb21]

1 hour ago, SaturnianBlue said:

Hurricane watches have been issued for the Leewards. The first recon flight pass gives a pressure reading of 958.6, which is something like a whole ten millibars lower than expected, and winds of 98 knots. The NHC's map for the wind field shows that Irma's has expanded, along with a huge burst of convection. Since Irma's getting ever closer to warmer waters, I think it's going to be mostly strengthening from here, and while I don't really believe that Irma will end up like the current GFS runs (a sub-900 mb Cat 5 off the east coast), it'll very likely surpass Harvey in intensity.

Thanks for posting those results! I also agree that Irma will strengthen beyond Harvey's peak intensity. Even visible radar shows an impressive clump of convection surrounding the center. However, I can no longe see Irma's eye, which along with the first recon data seems to suggest that a new EWRC is taking place and causing the storm to intensify.

Also, the GFS models STILL suggest a strong Category 5 storm?!

[SaturnianBlue]

25 minutes ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

Thanks for posting those results! I also agree that Irma will strengthen beyond Harvey's peak intensity. Even visible radar shows an impressive clump of convection surrounding the center. However, I can no longe see Irma's eye, which along with the first recon data seems to suggest that a new EWRC is taking place and causing the storm to intensify.

Also, the GFS models STILL suggest a strong Category 5 storm?!

Yep, the GFS is still suggesting an 880 millibar storm, and even the ECMWF is going with something like 920 millibars. The ECMWF is probably the more realistic option (the GFS apparently has a reputation for over estimating storms in that area), and that's still a category 5. That's still over a week away, so things can change.

Edit:

Luckily for the GFS, there's a model that's a bit more... Extreme in its prediction...

Edited September 3, 2017 by SaturnianBlue

[ProtoJeb21]

7 minutes ago, SaturnianBlue said:

Yep, the GFS is still suggesting an 880 millibar storm, and even the ECMWF is going with something like 920 millibars. The ECMWF is probably the more realistic option (the GFS apparently has a reputation for over estimating storms in that area), and that's still a category 5. That's still over a week away, so things can change.

Edit:

Luckily for the GFS, there's a model that's a bit more... Extreme in its prediction...

Oh holy Abeloth...that is not good. Whether or not Irma beats out Patricia and Tip as the strongest hurricane in history, the fact that's THREE models agree on Category 5 intensity is very concerning. I'm fearing that Irma may end up like Hurricane Andrew - as of right now, both storms have had quite a similar path, and Irma is likely to strike Florida.

[Kozak]

well being in texas, harvey has hit pretty hard. i wasn't personally effected but i went down to houston to help out for a bit.

Oh also i've been inside tornados before, those are fun.

[razark]

2 hours ago, Kozak said:

i wasn't personally effected but i went down to houston to help out for a bit.

I just want to say "Thank you."  To you, and everyone that has helped out, in whatever way, wherever you are.

[Green Baron]

Seems like the poor people on the northern Leewards, in Haiti/Dominican Republic, eventually Cuba will not get away easily. Those countries don't have the economic power to just rebuild, potable water, electricity, food is sparse. Haiti hasn't yet recovered from the last earthquake.

I hope it doesn't become as bad as it seems to be developing ...

[ProtoJeb21]

The newest recon mission found that the pressure has dropped ANOTHER 10 millibars to 947 mbar, while the winds have increased to 120 mph. Based on the sheer changes in a 3-hour period, along with the nearly symmetrical shape and deep eye, leads me to believe that rapid intensification is likely starting again. Okay, I know I've been wrong about new RI phases for the past day, but it seems more likely now, especially since Irma just finished another EWRC.

[kerbinorbiter]

well yesterday i was flying home to NCL from ACE and right as we were at 300-400 ft and the wind changed at NCL, so we aborted also it was 14 DEGREES IN ENGLAND!!! i mean HOW xD 

(only referencing my home airport because thats all i can do bc how are you meant to find my home if there are about 10,000 others xD)

[ProtoJeb21]

Oh this is not good.

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=27.3;-76.2;4&l=wind-850hpa&t=20170908/15

The Ventusky models suggest that Irma will continue on a rather straight trajectory for a few days, passing just north of Haiti as a Category 5 hurricane before making landfall in Cuba on September 8th/9th with winds somewhere around 150 mph. However, on September 10th, Irma will begin to turn north towards Florida and exit Cuba with a larger wind field. Still likely to be a Category 4 at that time. The next day, on 9/11, Irma will make landfall around Naples, FL with 180 mph winds. Like Tropical Storm Fay from 2008, Irma will continue vertically through the entire state of Florida as it continues to weaken. By September 12th, it will be over Georgia with 115 mph winds, mainly displaced to the north. Finally, on the 13th, Irma will have weakened to a 50-60 mph tropical storm with a HUGE wind field over Tennessee. 

Meanwhile, that tropical wave given a 70% chance of development will develop into Tropical Storm Jose by September 6th, with winds of 40 to 50 mph. It will continue to move northwest, gaining strength as it goes. By the 7th it will reach 70 mph wind speeds (with the strongest winds displaced to the north), and by the 8th we should expect Hurricane Jose with 90 mph winds while a few hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles. At this time, Irma will be over Cuba and the Bahamas. Jose will start moving more north-northwest, get better organized, and possibly become a 105 mph Category 2 storm by the 9th. Jose will maintain Category 2 intensity until 9/11, when it may become a 120 mph Category 3 storm several hundred miles north of St. Martin Island. While it may seem like Jose will strike Bermuda, by the evening of the 11th or the morning of the 12th, it will make a sharp turn and instead travel east-northeast. It may be a 130 mph Category 4 hurricane at that time.

Ventusky does not suggest any other tropical cyclone development during the next week.