Weather Chat Megathread

[Green Baron]

51 minutes ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

There's a chance I may get hit by Hurricane Irma. It looks like it may turn out like Hurricane Irene or Hurricane Isabel. That's not good news, since we just HAD a multi-billion dollar major hurricane in the United States. The good news is that any American landfall won't be until late next week or the week after. 

You're on the Lesser Antilles ? It may be too early to dig in, it is still a week or so away and much can happen in the meantime ... i hope you get away ...

" ... 'cause there ain't nowhere to hide waitin' for the hurricane" humdidum

For those interested: this is what a marine weather forecast including a hurricane warning looks like: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

Spanish is the same but the language is worse ... :-)

Edited August 31, 2017 by Green Baron

[tater]

 

 

[Vanamonde]

This thread is for weather chat like, "Man, it rained a lot today." 

Not "Let's re-fight the global warming drama." 

Let's please not turn it into an argument. 

[cratercracker]

One question

Why does it snows in the end of APRIL?!?!1????

[tater]

Depends on where you are, lol. We often get snow in April here in NM, at the altitude I'm at.

 

[ProtoJeb21]

5 hours ago, Green Baron said:

You're on the Lesser Antilles ? It may be too early to dig in, it is still a week or so away and much can happen in the meantime ... i hope you get away ...

" ... 'cause there ain't nowhere to hide waitin' for the hurricane" humdidum

For those interested: this is what a marine weather forecast including a hurricane warning looks like: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

Spanish is the same but the language is worse ... :-)

No, I'm on the East Coast. The current spaghetti models do suggest a landfall around the Carolinas or New England, but as you said it is too early to tell.

[cratercracker]

22 minutes ago, tater said:

Depends on where you are, lol. We often get snow in April here in NM, at the altitude I'm at.

 

the problem is that I am at Kamchatka, and in the winter there is up to 6 meters or snow.

goddamit. 

[SaturnianBlue]

Irma is now a major hurricane!

[ProtoJeb21]

18 minutes ago, SaturnianBlue said:

Irma is now a major hurricane!

Ninja'd me again!

This phase of rapid intensification is quite strong. In the last 24 hours, Irma's wind speeds have gone from 60 mph to 115 mph - an increase of 55 mph! - with a barometric pressure dropping from 29.56 to 28.56 inches of Mercury. If intensification of a similar scale continues for another 24 hours, then Irma may become a Category 5 hurricane by tomorrow or Saturday. Considering the forecast models by HWRF and the very favorable conditions in Irma's current location, I think this is pretty likely.

[SaturnianBlue]

27 minutes ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

Ninja'd me again!

This phase of rapid intensification is quite strong. In the last 24 hours, Irma's wind speeds have gone from 60 mph to 115 mph - an increase of 55 mph! - with a barometric pressure dropping from 29.56 to 28.56 inches of Mercury. If intensification of a similar scale continues for another 24 hours, then Irma may become a Category 5 hurricane by tomorrow or Saturday. Considering the forecast models by HWRF and the very favorable conditions in Irma's current location, I think this is pretty likely.

Apparently Irma's undergoing an EWRC, so rapid intensification might have to wait—but it could still strengthen.

[RoadRunnerAerospace]

*finger gnawing intensifies*

[DeltaDizzy]

*googles "Irma"*

[LordFerret]

14 hours ago, Green Baron said:

- snip -

 

Question: why do you scoff at scientists that way ? Are you a biologist that does related research ? Just a question so i know whom i'm battling with :-) From controversy can come new insight ...

 

Scientists need to be scoffed at, it keeps them in line, but more-so it keeps things in healthy perspective. Remember; they laughed at Galileo, they laughed at Copernicus, and they believed Lysenko. Who am I? I'm nobody; I'm a skeptic. I was just trying to give you new insight. You read the journals, and that's fine. I (we) watch the money.
PS - I've three family members who are published. Who knows, you may have read their work and scoffed at it.

 

My news from TX; Family is fine. Austin (northern) saw no real rain, just a lot of wind and trees down. No damage to the house, although the neighbors tree decided to take revenge on its owner's house. The other family members in Houston (Humble), are fine also. No water, no damage, however they can't leave their home via car because the surrounding neighborhoods are flooded... but the water is receding. We're counting ourselves as lucky.

[ProtoJeb21]

1 hour ago, SaturnianBlue said:

Apparently Irma's undergoing an EWRC, so rapid intensification might have to wait—but it could still strengthen.

That's not good. I remember last year how Hurricanes Lester and Madeline both underwent multiple Eyewall Replacement Cycles, which ultimately led them to both become far more intense than predicted. This is definitely something to keep a close eye on.

 

EDIT: I can see Irma's eye beginning to reform!

Edited August 31, 2017 by ProtoJeb21

[DarkOwl57]

Any news on Irma? Do we have any spaghetti models showing possible landfalls?

[RoadRunnerAerospace]

current forecasts showing it starting a right turn towards the us in a few days

 

*intense finger gnawing intensifies*

Edited September 1, 2017 by RoadRunnerAerospace

[Green Baron]

1 hour ago, DarkOwl57 said:

Any news on Irma? Do we have any spaghetti models showing possible landfalls?

The best information i know of is indeed from the American weather service's hurricane site. Here the link again: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

For details, click "Analyses & Forecasts/Marine Products" and choose the area.

So, right now and for the next 120 hours (5 days) it is moving westerly, further intensifying to a major hurricane. It was categorised 3 earlier today. It moves towards the Lesser Antilles (not the US coast according to the NOAA).

Pls. keep in mind that a five day forecasts may have uncertainties to the course and strength of the storm.

Edited September 1, 2017 by Green Baron

[tater]

Spaghetti models are interesting, but offer a wide range of possibilities. We'll know more in a few days which way it'll go:

 

Edited September 1, 2017 by tater

[Green Baron]

Well, the cyclones' track follows the large scale circulation pattern, it won't "enter" a high pressure, it is influenced by coriolis force, these things. "Large scale synoptic" might be search criterion ...

[tater]

I'm torn between what would be the worst... people would reflexively like it to not track south, then hit TX again, OTOH, that region is already wrecked, it might in fact be better to hit the same spot twice than damage a new region... best of course is to head north and churn water, not land.

[ProtoJeb21]

It looks like Irma's Eyewall Replacement Cycle is in full effect. It has weakened to a high-end Category 2, lost its eye, and has become more symmetrical. Spaghetti models that I've seen suggest a North Carolina or New England landfall. It looks like this is even MORE likely to become another Irene or Floyd.

[RoadRunnerAerospace]

Well, I live basically near where it would make landfall if it does on the east coast

 

*intensely intense finger gnawing intensifies* 

Edited September 1, 2017 by RoadRunnerAerospace

[tater]

As a kid I had a few, large Air Force maps of the East Coast that my uncle got for me (he also had his secretary put his already read Aviation Week and other defense industry magazines in an envelope and mail them to me). My grandparents would be up this time of year from FL, and I remember my grandfather watching the news, or reading the paper and using my maps with pins in them to mark hurricanes (worried about their house in FL).

[ProtoJeb21]

Irma's EWRC has finished! Now it has a small but deep eye, a sign that rapid intensification will start once again. I still think it has a good chance of becoming a Category 5.

Edited September 1, 2017 by ProtoJeb21

[RoadRunnerAerospace]

Aaaaaand 

*most intense of finger gnawing intensifies*