Weather Chat Megathread

[SaturnianBlue]

2 hours ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

@SaturnianBlue A new aircraft recon flight is in Hurricane Jose, and has noticed significant intensification. Pressure down to 974 mbar with winds up to 80-85 knots. 

NHC has actually held Jose's strength at 70kts though. 

Maria has already become a 50 mph storm, and rapid intensification not only seems likely, the NHC is already predicting a category 3 in four days, with them straight up saying that RI is likely. I fear a repeat of Irma.

Lee remains a weak storm and Norma in the EPAC has weakened. TD 15-E is finally TS Otis.

Edited September 16, 2017 by SaturnianBlue

[ProtoJeb21]

53 minutes ago, SaturnianBlue said:

NHC has actually held Jose's strength at 70kts though. 

Maria has already become a 50 mph storm, and rapid intensification not only seems likely, the NHC is already predicting a category 3 in four days, with them straight up saying that RI is likely. I fear a repeat of Irma.

Lee remains a weak storm and Norma in the EPAC has weakened. TD 15-E is finally TS Otis.

I'm pretty sure we're going to get an aircraft recon intensity update for Jose, like what was happening when it neared the Leeward Islands. It is getting significantly better organize. A huge clump of convection and a mid-level eye have formed around its center. 

Maria looks to be another horrific disaster of a hurricane. It may even become this year's second Category 5, either in the Caribbean before landfall in DR, or a bit north of the Bahamas a day or two before a direct strike in North Carolina. Very concerning. 

Lee, Norma, and Otis don't seem worth keeping track of. Norma did have the potential to become a major hurricane, but for some reason it had a hard time intensifying. I don't know why. 

[ProtoJeb21]

It looks like Jose is strengthening. Another aircraft reconissance mission has found winds around 83-96 knots with the central pressure down to 970 mbar. Currently flying out from the center, may do a third pass. 

Edited September 17, 2017 by ProtoJeb21

[ProtoJeb21]

Jose has strengthened into a high-end Category 1 (90 mph/967 mbar) and seems like it will continue to do so. A new aircraft recon mission has just been sent out to investigate, while a second one is flying inside Tropical Storm Maria. It has recorded pressures as low as 985 mbar. Meanwhile, in the EPac, Tropical Storm Otis has formed an eye and may become a hurricane later today. 

[DarkOwl57]

Wasn't Jose supposed to stay away from the US though? Last I saw, he's supposed to just loop back into the Atlantic a few hundred miles from the east coast

[Just Jim]

22 minutes ago, DarkOwl57 said:

Wasn't Jose supposed to stay away from the US though? Last I saw, he's supposed to just loop back into the Atlantic a few hundred miles from the east coast

After they way they kept getting Irma wrong, until that last day, I'm not believing any predictions anymore. Idiot "experts" have no clue what it's really going to do... they're just basking in the hype they cause.

[ProtoJeb21]

Wow, there are THREE recon aircraft currently heading to Hurricane Jose. Is one not enough?

[ProtoJeb21]

Oh &^$^*@!(*@&#

Even though the NHC has held Jose's intensity for the 5:00 pm update (probably because of the trio of recon missions currently out), Tropical Storm Watches have been issues across much of the Northeast Coast, including my state. Plus, just as many meteorologists have predicted, Jose is beginning to "puff up", with its wind field increasing drastically. It may get pretty large, but not as insanely enormous as Sandy.

Meanwhile, Maria and Otis have both become hurricanes. The latter is unexpected, considering how it was predicted to strengthen only a bit. Plus, Otis has actually rapidly intensified into a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph winds, and is expected to become the fourth major hurricane of the 2017 Pacific hurricane season.

[LordFerret]

4 hours ago, Just Jim said:

After they way they kept getting Irma wrong, until that last day, I'm not believing any predictions anymore. Idiot "experts" have no clue what it's really going to do... they're just basking in the hype they cause.

Keep in mind these are the same folks who have something to sell you on climate change; Predictions going out 20 years into the future... and you're questionable about the weather tomorrow.

[Ten Key]

5 hours ago, Just Jim said:

After they way they kept getting Irma wrong, until that last day, I'm not believing any predictions anymore. Idiot "experts" have no clue what it's really going to do... they're just basking in the hype they cause.

"Expert" is a relative term of course. . .no one gets it right all the time. But the actual experts have little control over the media circus, and the people I know do not enjoy arriving at work to find a press van sitting in the parking lot. They are human beings who work very hard, sweat bullets over their predictions and kick themselves vigorously when they get it wrong. Those NHC 5 day tracks may not look like much, but a lot of work goes into them. No one has yet figured out a better way to do it, but believe me, there are people trying. 

[SaturnianBlue]

Norma has weakened, and is turning away from Baja California.

Jose maintains 90 MPH winds, and while it looks like it'll stay mostly offshore, it does have a considerable wind field.

Lee... Is practically nonexistent.

Otis is officially a Major—a real shock considering the storm had finally become a tropical storm yesterday after 5 days of being a tropical depression. Coincidentally, I was hoping for a nice "fish storm" in the EPAC, instead of a dangerous Atlantic storm... Unfortunately, only half of that wish was filled, because...

Maria continues to strengthen, with a powerful core of very cold clouds, and it is almost certainly undergoing rapid intensification. A category 4 over Puerto Rico is likely, and considering the fact that Irma missed Puerto Rico, yet power outages from that storm are still being repaired, this is even more concerning than it already would've been. 

Edited September 18, 2017 by SaturnianBlue

[ProtoJeb21]

7 hours ago, SaturnianBlue said:

Norma has weakened, and is turning away from Baja California.

Jose maintains 90 MPH winds, and while it looks like it'll stay mostly offshore, it does have a considerable wind field.

Lee... Is practically nonexistent.

Otis is officially a Major—a real shock considering the storm had finally become a tropical storm yesterday after 5 days of being a tropical depression. Coincidentally, I was hoping for a nice "fish storm" in the EPAC, instead of a dangerous Atlantic storm... Unfortunately, only half of that wish was filled, because...

Maria continues to strengthen, with a powerful core of very cold clouds, and it is almost certainly undergoing rapid intensification. A category 4 over Puerto Rico is likely, and considering the fact that Irma missed Puerto Rico, yet power outages from that storm are still being repaired, this is even more concerning than it already would've been. 

The Weather Channel has reported that lightning is going absolutely berserk in the center of Maria, a sign that it is starting to rapidly intensify. Both the GFS models and Ventusky show that Maria is likely to become a Category 5 hurricane, although the chances of this are higher once Maria gets to the Bahamas. We can only wait and see how strong it gets before making landfall in Puerto Rico. 

Meanwhile, Lee won't die quick enough. How is it even still existent?

I am going to get something from Hurricane Jose. Gusty winds and significant rain is forecasted for my area tomorrow, continuing until Wednesday morning. This is going to suck. 

[SaturnianBlue]

1 hour ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

The Weather Channel has reported that lightning is going absolutely berserk in the center of Maria, a sign that it is starting to rapidly intensify. Both the GFS models and Ventusky show that Maria is likely to become a Category 5 hurricane, although the chances of this are higher once Maria gets to the Bahamas. We can only wait and see how strong it gets before making landfall in Puerto Rico. 

Meanwhile, Lee won't die quick enough. How is it even still existent?

I am going to get something from Hurricane Jose. Gusty winds and significant rain is forecasted for my area tomorrow, continuing until Wednesday morning. This is going to suck. 

Yikes! Maria is now just shy of category 3 status with a pressure of 967 mb. The HWRF has a category 4 passing east of PR. I'm not sure what's with the ECMWF—it seems to have initialized at way too high a pressure, but even it forecasts a lot of strengthening, that's for sure. No visible eye on satellite, but it shows up distinctly on radar.

Jose looks like it is transitioning to an extratropical cyclone, but that doesn't mean it won't create a lot of wind.

 

 

Edited September 18, 2017 by SaturnianBlue

[ProtoJeb21]

15 minutes ago, SaturnianBlue said:

Yikes! Maria is now just shy of category 3 status with a pressure of 967 mb. The HWRF has a category 4 passing east of PR. I'm not sure what's with the ECMWF—it seems to have initialized at way too high a pressure, but even it forecasts a lot of strengthening, that's for sure. No visible eye on satellite, but it shows up distinctly on radar.

Jose looks like it is transitioning to an extratropical cyclone, but that doesn't mean it won't create a lot of wind.

 

 

I bet Maria will get to high Category 3 or even Category 4 status by the end of the day. Rapid intensification has most definitely begun now - as shown by a well-defined circle of convection around the center - and the odds of it becoming a Category 5 are significantly higher. In fact, the GFS model suggests that Maria could eventually become a 910-920 mbar storm. Yeesh!

Jose is still going to be a problem/annoyance, whether it's tropical or not. 

Edited September 18, 2017 by ProtoJeb21

[ProtoJeb21]

I was right. Maria is now a Category 3, and will likely be a Cat 4 later today. Odds are it'll become a Cat 5 as well. 

[ProtoJeb21]

Maria is now just shy of becoming the third Category 4 hurricane this year. It's looking a lot like Hurricane Matthew, where it just keeps on intensifying throughout the day before reaching Category 5 intensity. That's really bad news for Puerto Rico and, basically, everyone in the Caribbean. 

Curently, Maria is moving into some of the warmest waters in the entire Atlantic, with temperatures of AT LEAST 30 Celsius. That's warmer than the waters that fueled Irma's explosive intensification into a Category 5.

Edited September 18, 2017 by ProtoJeb21

[ProtoJeb21]

This season has surely been the year of amazing satellite imagery.

However, this beauty is quite deadly. Hurricane Maria seems to be at least a 130 mph Category 4 right now (just 20 minutes left until the next intensity update!) and reminds me a lot of both Hurricane Ivan and Hurricane Matthew. What's worse is that the GFS and Ventusky models have not been updated with Maria's increasing intensity, meaning that it will be quite hard to predict how bad this storm will turn out in the near future. However, the track has been updated, and it predicts Maria getting WAAAY too close to St. Martin and Barbuda before ramming straight through Puerto Rico. The models also heavily imply that this storm has a pretty decent chance of becoming a Category 5 while over the Bahamas before striking North Carolina as a major hurricane.

*sigh* Here comes another devastating multi-billion dollar weather disaster. And people though 2017 was going to be better than 2016...

[ProtoJeb21]

@SaturnianBlue A new recon flight made its first pass through Maria's Eyewall, and...

...it seems to be a Category 5 now...

[SaturnianBlue]

The Hurricane Hunters have flown through the pinhole eye of Hurricane Maria, and what they've found is a monster category 5 hurricane with a pressure of 925 mb... Not since 2007 have two category 5 hurricanes occurred in the same season.

Raw Dvorak intensity estimates have put the storm at 7.4—an absolute monster.

Edit: And we posted the same thing at the same time! D'oh!

Edit 2: And it is official—the NHC has nailed Maria down as a 160 MPH storm at 929 mb. The storm is about to strike Dominica, which is likely still recovering from Erika in 2015—not since David of 1979 has such a powerful storm struck them.

Edited September 18, 2017 by SaturnianBlue

[ProtoJeb21]

19 minutes ago, SaturnianBlue said:

The Hurricane Hunters have flown through the pinhole eye of Hurricane Maria, and what they've found is a monster category 5 hurricane with a pressure of 925 mb... Not since 2007 have two category 5 hurricanes occurred in the same season.

Raw Dvorak intensity estimates have put the storm at 7.4—an absolute monster.

Edit: And we posted the same thing at the same time! D'oh!

Edit 2: And it is official—the NHC has nailed Maria down as a 160 MPH storm at 929 mb. The storm is about to strike Dominica, which is likely still recovering from Erika in 2015—not since David of 1979 has such a powerful storm struck them.

Welp, there goes another name off this year's rotating list...along with Dominica. It seems likely that Hurricane Maria will continue strengthening until it starts ramming into Puerto Rico. 

[tater]

Hope my friend's dad will be ok in the Dominican Republic. The guy is in his 90s, apparently. I'll text her and see as it looks like they could get hit after PR.

Edited September 19, 2017 by tater

[LordFerret]

Hurricane Jose is about 360 miles southeast of us right now. The generalized forecast is calling for rain tonight. Overall, the outlook is for rain all week. They're calling for some good surf however... I just might have to see if I can make a run to Spring Lake or Manasquan and check it out. wahoo!

Live Beach Cams

[ProtoJeb21]

Oh snap...MARIA IS INTENSIFYING AGAIN!

The most recent aircraft recon flight has just completed its first pass through Hurricane Maria's eye. It found winds around 150-160 knots and a pressure of 920 mbar. For comparison, as of the 11:00 am advisory, Maria had 140 knot winds and a 924 mbar center. 

*incredibly intense nail biting ensues*

[RoadRunnerAerospace]

Maria! go away! I just hope that it doesn`t hug the east coast....... up to new york...... That would be bad

[TheKosanianMethod]

I found this cool site on /r/internetisbeautiful, it's called Windy. It lets you look at all of the wind currents in the world, and you can see how big Jose is. And how close it is... It's similar to the track Sandy took, just moved East. 

https://www.windy.com/?38.869,-77.637,5