Weather Chat Megathread

[SaturnianBlue]

Aside from Maria, which remains a dangerous major hurricane, Jose's long existence has finally ended, with the storm becoming extratropical. The storm could be upgraded to a category 5 in the post-season analysis. 

Itty-bitty tropical depression Lee has regenerated once again in the Central Atlantic, far from land for once. I'm a little surprised the NHC didn't call it Nate.

There's a region in the EPAC with a high chance to form, but the proximity to land might limit it from it becoming a strong storm, but I don't really know.

[RoadRunnerAerospace]

Any ideas as to where maria will make landfall?

 

[SaturnianBlue]

31 minutes ago, RoadRunnerAerospace said:

Any ideas as to where maria will make landfall?

 

It might not at all from now on—while it might get quite close the North Carolina, it probably won't make landfall.

[ProtoJeb21]

@SaturnianBlue Something interesting has been going on with Hurricane Maria today. Over the last 24 hours, its central pressure has dropped from 960 to 946 mbar, yet its winds have decreased to 115 mph. However, the drop in pressure, signs of an EWRC, and the increased organization shown by the development of annular convection leads me to believe one final episode of rapid intensification is about to begin. This is, actually, right on schedule for the GFS models. 

[ProtoJeb21]

Lee has now become a hurricane - a very tiny one at that. Hurricane force winds only extend out to 10 miles! What a midget! The NHC forecast cone predicts Lee to get very close to Category 3 status, but considering how well organized it is, it seems likely to reach major hurricane status within the next day or two. This is the first time in over a CENTURY that eight hurricanes have formed in a row. 

[SaturnianBlue]

5 hours ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

Lee has now become a hurricane - a very tiny one at that. Hurricane force winds only extend out to 10 miles! What a midget! The NHC forecast cone predicts Lee to get very close to Category 3 status, but considering how well organized it is, it seems likely to reach major hurricane status within the next day or two. This is the first time in over a CENTURY that eight hurricanes have formed in a row. 

And that might not even be true, since many tropical storms were not observed back then.

Wow! Hurricane Lee looks really good—it's convection isn't too high, but by appearance it's quite the sight.

[ProtoJeb21]

29 minutes ago, SaturnianBlue said:

And that might not even be true, since many tropical storms were not observed back then.

Wow! Hurricane Lee looks really good—it's convection isn't too high, but by appearance it's quite the sight.

It reminds me of Hurricane Igor at peak intensity - except like 20 times smaller. Lee's wind field is still only around 45 miles, while Igor managed to get to about 950 miles. 

[ProtoJeb21]

Okay, there is no way Lee isn't a Category 2 or 3 by now. Despite its incredible organization and pinhole eye, the NHC still says Lee is just a Category 1.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Maria's pressure continues to drop, which indicates that its wind speeds should be increasing...but they're not. What the hell is going on with these storms?

[Just Jim]

43 minutes ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

Okay, there is no way Lee isn't a Category 2 or 3 by now. Despite its incredible organization and pinhole eye, the NHC still says Lee is just a Category 1.

Meanwhile, Hurricane Maria's pressure continues to drop, which indicates that its wind speeds should be increasing...but they're not. What the hell is going on with these storms?

Remember, categories are based on just wind speed, not size or pressure... which is a little goofy in my opinion.

We've had "no-name" storms here that never made it to tropical status that still caused all sorts of bad rain and flood damage.... So categories can be misleading

 

Edited September 24, 2017 by Just Jim

[ProtoJeb21]

14 minutes ago, Just Jim said:

Remember, categories are based on just wind speed, not size or pressure... which is a little goofy in my opinion.

We've had "no-name" storms here that never made it to tropical status that still caused all sorts of bad rain and flood damage.... So categories can be misleading

 

Yes, but it doesn't make sense how Maria's wind is not increasing. A decrease in pressure ALWAYS means an increase in sustained wind speed. Also, Lee is showing all the signs of a rapidly intensifying storm nearing major hurricane status. It really doesn't make sense at all. 

[Just Jim]

39 minutes ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

Yes, but it doesn't make sense how Maria's wind is not increasing. A decrease in pressure ALWAYS means an increase in sustained wind speed. Also, Lee is showing all the signs of a rapidly intensifying storm nearing major hurricane status. It really doesn't make sense at all. 

Welcome to the Wonderful world of Hurricanes.

I don't mean to sound snide, or sarcastic... well, maybe a little sarcastic, but not towards you... to the storms.

I've been through so many of these I've learned one thing... hurricanes are weird! They don't act or behave like normal storms, and just when you think one is going to do one thing, it does something totally unexpected instead. That's why I don't put much faith in predictions... it's almost like the Hurricane's make a conscious effort to prove the "experts" wrong.

[ProtoJeb21]

30 minutes ago, Just Jim said:

Welcome to the Wonderful world of Hurricanes.

I don't mean to sound snide, or sarcastic... well, maybe a little sarcastic, but not towards you... to the storms.

I've been through so many of these I've learned one thing... hurricanes are weird! They don't act or behave like normal storms, and just when you think one is going to do one thing, it does something totally unexpected instead. That's why I don't put much faith in predictions... it's almost like the Hurricane's make a conscious effort to prove the "experts" wrong.

I can easily sum up those three paragraphs in two words: Hurricane Nadine. 

(Seriously, that one must've given every meteorologist on the planet a migraine)

[ProtoJeb21]

Finally! After an Eyewall Replacement Cycle yesterday, Hurricane Lee has reached Category 2 status with winds of 100 mph. Because of its very slow movement, it is prone to rapid intensification, and satellite imagery supports this. Lee is developing tall thunderstorms and a huge, deep eye. It is forecasted to follow very close to Hurricane Maria as the two of them become extrateopical and head towards Great Britain next week. 

[Green Baron]

On 25/09/2017 at 12:13 AM, ProtoJeb21 said:

Yes, but it doesn't make sense how Maria's wind is not increasing. A decrease in pressure ALWAYS means an increase in sustained wind speed. Also, Lee is showing all the signs of a rapidly intensifying storm nearing major hurricane status. It really doesn't make sense at all. 

Nope, absolute pressure is the main-indicator but not a law, depends on situation. Surrounding pressure and coriolis forces play role. In the whole it is the gradient of pressure that defines mean windspeed. So, if the hurricane moves towards lower pressure and/or a flat gradient (large distance between isobares) it can dissipate despite of barometric pressure not correlating.

As to predictions for Maria and Lee i can hold myself back but it seems like the danger is over, for the time being :-)

Edited September 26, 2017 by Green Baron

[ProtoJeb21]

Hurricane Lee continues to get better organized, as it heads towards warmer waters of about 27-28 degrees Celsius. A Category 3 hurricane is still possible before Lee encounters somewhat less favorable conditions by late week.

Current satellite image of Lee:

Sea-Surface Temperatures (SSTs) as of 12z September 26th, 2017:

6 hours ago, Green Baron said:

Nope, absolute pressure is the main-indicator but not a law, depends on situation. Surrounding pressure and coriolis forces play role. In the whole it is the gradient of pressure that defines mean windspeed. So, if the hurricane moves towards lower pressure and/or a flat gradient (large distance between isobares) it can dissipate despite of barometric pressure not correlating.

As to predictions for Maria and Lee i can hold myself back but it seems like the danger is over, for the time being :-)

Maria was rather disorganized from wind shear coming off of the Carolinas, so that probably caused an imbalance within the storm and kept a lid on its wind speeds.

Also, don't say that the danger is over. Not only are there going to be terrible rip currents for DAYS, but the Caribbean south of Haiti and Cuba is incredibly warm. If any tropical wave or compact low-pressure area manages to get a foothold in that area, it will most definitely become another major hurricane, possibly a Category 5. It's warmer than the waters that fueled the ferocious intensity of Irma and Maria, which is VERY worrying.

[Green Baron]

3 minutes ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

Also, don't say that the danger is over.

Yep, i only meant that for Maria and Lee and i must add that i can't see into the future :-) If the two arrive in front of the Brit's doorstep with a shower then so be it (hehehe).

You are right, the season isn't over and the ocean surface is very warm. We can still see some more before the "official" end of the season.

[ProtoJeb21]

Lee just reached winds of 100 knots (115 mph)! It's now a major hurricane!

[Cydonian Monk]

I’m just happy our hurricane season is over in the West Gulf. We now enter the grey and wet period known as “early football season” in which nighttime lows might slip down to 68 °F and we’ll get occasional rainfall of sub-apocalyptic measurements. It doesn’t actually get nice until “mid football season” when the skies generally clear up and highs slip under 80 °F. And then of course we have “winter” in the first week of December, when it occasionally snows, followed by “late football season” during which everyone is too angry at their team to ever remember what the weather is actually like. 

Edited September 27, 2017 by Cydonian Monk

[DarkOwl57]

It's been raining like all week.

Monday, during football, it was like that scene from We Bought A Zoo. A single drop. Another. Downpour of the century. Lasted about 30 minutes, and everyone was thoroughly soaked by the end of it. Then, yesterday.... Oh boy, yesterday. 

Yesterday, it was grey as far as the eye could see. Then it was the same as Monday. Drip. Drop. Dead. 10 minutes in, it was fun. 30, not so fun. 1 hour in, the wind had started blowing, JV was standing around doing nothing, people were hiding behind coaches to escape the freezing rain, and I swear to you, wind chill was at most 45º. It's supposed to stay like this all the way until our game on Thursday. Homecoming's supposed to be dry though, so I get the utter thrill of playing a trombone with pneumonia.

Never fails; every homecoming year, there's some form of weather that either delays the game or threatens to. It's been like that for the past like... 4 or 5 years now, and this year appears to be much of the same.

[Findthepin1]

 

[ProtoJeb21]

The potential for more tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic has begun to ramp up. Looking at the GFS models on Tropical Tidbits, Invest-99L doesn't have a great chance of becoming much of anything, but that tropical wave over the Leeward Islands may kick off a very interesting chain of events starting in the middle of next week. 

1.) The TW continues to move across the Caribbean. It does not develop. 

2.) It emerges into the EPac around Wednesday or Thursday, just south of Nicaragua. 

3.) One or two areas of circulation are spawned from the TW on Thursday, both seeming likely the develop into tropical storms. The first one meanders for about a day. 

4.) The first tropical storm hits Nicaragua. Its remnants pass into the southwest Caribbean. 

5.) Early in the weekend, the disturbed Weather from the first EPac tropical storm may result in the formation of up to THREE tropical cyclones around Florida and the Carribean. 

6.) The third tropical cyclone may be unrelated, but possibly caused by the first two interacting with other areas of low pressure. 

7.) At least one of the new tropical cyclones hits Florida around Sunday. 

This forecast is likely to change, but quite interesting. Considering how reliable the GFS models have been these past few weeks I would definitely keep an eye on this tropical wave and anything it will spawn. 

[DarkOwl57]

*Actual situation that happened yesterday*

Me: *Looks outside* Uh.... Jim? JIM?!?! WHERE'D YOU GO?!

Other guy: "No need to shout dude; I'm right here."

Yeah. It's so foggy, the local news station put us at 0.1 visibility. Although on the highway it feels like 0.0. 

[tater]

Weather just now...

Rained a bunch (a few mm), then got sunny again. Back to cloudy, lol.

[TheKosanianMethod]

On 9/29/2017 at 11:28 AM, DarkOwl57 said:

*Actual situation that happened yesterday*

Me: *Looks outside* Uh.... Jim? JIM?!?! WHERE'D YOU GO?!

Other guy: "No need to shout dude; I'm right here."

Yeah. It's so foggy, the local news station put us at 0.1 visibility. Although on the highway it feels like 0.0. 

Snake... Snaaake... Snaaaaaaake

[ProtoJeb21]

The tropics are starting to resume activity. Tropical Storm Ramon has formed in the EPac out of the Central American Gyre, and Invest 90L (also from the gyre) is likely to develop today. Most forecast models agree that 90L/Future Nate will pass by the Yucatán Peninsula after bringing heavy rain to Honduras/Nicaragua, then striking Louisiana's Gulf Coast. Rapid intensification seems likely among the 29-30 degree Celsius waters of the western Caribbean. However, one of the GFS modes suggests something interesting: Future Nate may split into TWO tropical cyclones while in the Gulf. It probably won't happen, but it does seem quite interesting.