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ProtoJeb21

By ProtoJeb21
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YNM

YNM

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Quite surprised to see Ophelia. Have heard of hurricane/"ex-"/TS/"ex-" up there, but haven't been living in one time.

Anyway, is anyone else here lives somewhere "forecast-proof" ? I think I live in one. It's all mountains to all directions and the only thing that tells you is rain in the making appears to be random.

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Green Baron

Green Baron

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Where i live it is usually quite calm. Tradewinds in summer, some rain in autumn or winter. It is rare that a real storm hits the Canaries, but it can happen. Ophelia decided to take the path between Madeira and the eastern Azores.

Heavy rain can cause landslides on volcanic islands, the lava layers may act as a ramp on which the steep flank of a volcanic edifice can slide towards entropy, destabilized by water, earthquake or just for the lulz of it. Every few hundred thousand years such a catastrophic event happens (edit: not necessarily caused by water), causing cubic-kilometers of debris flow to be deposited on the seafloor and it creates quite typical topographic features, like the Canadas on Tenerife or the Caldera de Taburiente on La Palma. El Hierro, seen from a satellite, shows a such a typical "horseshoe", facing NNW.

Should it happen on La Plama's western flank of the Cumbre Vieja, then people on the other side of the pond might experience a fully grown tsunami of sorts. "Hi New York, i am the Atlantic, may i introduce myself ?". Don't worry (yet), the flank is under constant observation because of awareness ;-)

 

The Cumbre Vieja is considered an active Volcano, last eruption 1971 created the Teneguia. There have been several swarms of earthquakes recently (9th to 14th of October), nothing people can sense (Richter mag 1-2.4) but enough for British (La Palma is a touristic island) tabloids like Mirror to predict the end of the world. The swarms were in the upper mantle, at depths between 17 and 32 km. Such swarms might indicate that something is bubbling up but don't necessarily mean that an eruption (better: outflow) is at hand.

After all, the volcanism on/in/under the Canaries, though of roughly the same sort as that on the Hawaiian islands, produces much less lava than the latter.

 

Weather is fine. It had 32 degrees over the weekend because of the endless Calima this year, but now it is around 25 at day and 18 at night. Celsius, of course. The past years have been much too dry, according to those who live here.

 

Edited by Green Baron
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cubinator

cubinator

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On 10/16/2017 at 5:19 PM, RoadRunnerAerospace said:

lol, no temperature is ok for lawn mowing, I always find something to complain about!

True

I've found that 55 is just about the right temperature to keep my body at optimal temperature throughout the mowing without having to sweat. Unfortunately, it's almost never that cold when I have to mow the lawn. 

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ProtoJeb21

ProtoJeb21

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Typhoon Lan was just upgraded to a Category 3 equivalent storm with winds of 115 mph and a barometric pressure of 960 mbar. Forecasted to eventually become a Category 4 before striking Tokyo. Originally, it was going to become a monster Category 5, so the potential threat of this thing has significantly dropped. 

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ProtoJeb21

ProtoJeb21

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Wow, Typhoon Lan is intensifying fast. Winds are now up to 110 knots (just about Category 4 strength), and the pressure has dropped all the way down to 941 mbar. Lan has ripped apart Tropical Depression 26W and now sports an impressive 60 mile-wide maw of an eye. 

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ProtoJeb21

ProtoJeb21

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3 hours ago, SaturnianBlue said:

Impressive how much Lan has improved in condition considering it appeared to be struggling just yesterday. 

 

I can't believe how quickly it's transitioning from a ragged low-end Hurricane to a powerful and incredibly well organized Super Typhoon. As of the latest update, winds are at 155 mph (tied for the third strongest globally this year) and has a pressure of 915 mbar (the third lowest in 2017). By tomorrow it will most definitely be a Category 5.

Speaking of which, is it possible that Hurricane Irma's central pressure is lower than the originally measured 914 mbar? It seems odd that a storm with such high winds would have a pressure equivalent to a Category 4 storm. 

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Green Baron

Green Baron

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7 hours ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

 It seems odd that a storm with such high winds would have a pressure equivalent to a Category 4 storm. 

Why so ? The barometric pressure doesn't define a storms category.

Again, it's not the absolute pressure that provokes the wind speed, it's the gradient (and on a smaller amount other factors).

A small storm can have extreme wind speeds. Example thunderstorms, tornado.

Edited by Green Baron
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ProtoJeb21

ProtoJeb21

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Holy krap...Super Typhoon Lan is now one of the largest tropical cyclones ever recorded. It's between the sizes of Sandy and Tip, with a gale diameter of 1,270 miles - larger than the dwarf planet Makemake. For comparison, Sandy was over 1,100 miles, and Tip was 1,380 miles. 

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ProtoJeb21

ProtoJeb21

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4 hours ago, SaturnianBlue said:

Lan will weaken quickly as it nears Japan, which as far as I can tell is because of lower SST's and a big block of shear.

It doesn't seem so now. Lan is starting to intensity again. Winds are back up to 155 mph and its pressure is starting to decrease. Incredibly concerning, especially due to its enormous size. 

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SaturnianBlue

SaturnianBlue

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3 hours ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

It doesn't seem so now. Lan is starting to intensity again. Winds are back up to 155 mph and its pressure is starting to decrease. Incredibly concerning, especially due to its enormous size. 

Lan might remain fairly stable for the next few hours, but the eye is a bit ragged. What'll probably stop it is a load of wind shear. 3yDxGRA.png

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ProtoJeb21

ProtoJeb21

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Tropical Storm Philippe has formed, and it is actually going to be a huge problem for me. Why? The October 2017 Northeast superstorm. A huge and powerful low-pressure system is about to smack the absolute crap out of New England. Where I live, wind gusts can exceed 55-60 mph with rainfall totals up to 5 inches. Widespread power outages and flash flooding are likely. It's possible school could be cancelled as well. This is looking to be the biggest storm in my area since Sandy, and guess what's fueling this monstrosity? Philippe. Some forecast models show it may stay intact as it moves close to New England, potentially giving us a double-whammy. That's why the forecasts for Sunday and Monday have become more extreme and concerning since earlier this week. 

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