Weather Chat Megathread

[cubinator]

1 minute ago, tater said:

Well, it can only take one of those paths (or none).

That's a little better...

[tater]

Most of them suck for the US, and all of them suck for somebody.

Keep your heads down, people!

[SaturnianBlue]

For such a strong storm, it's a little shocking to see that Irma's pressure is at 926 mb—all other hurricanes in the North Atlantic that ever got this strong were sub-900 mb storms. After the immediate danger affecting the Leewards, the big question will be when Irma turns.

There are now three storms in the Atlantic—quite the strong indicator of an active September.

Edit: Irma has now produced more ACE than all of the other storms before it combined.

Edited September 5, 2017 by SaturnianBlue

[ProtoJeb21]

It looks like Jose could ALSO become a Category 5. Ventusky predicts that from September 11th to 14th, it will meander around the same area where Irma intensified into a Cat 5. By the 14th, Ventusky models suggest that winds could be as high as 156 mph, VERY close to becoming a Category 5 on the SSHWS. Having two back-to-back Cat 5's will be incredible. It will also be the first time that the name Jose would ever be used for a hurricane. 

Meanwhile, Ventusky doesn't predict much for Tropical Depression 13 (which actually is the 12th tropical depression of the year). Its models suggest the storm barely gaining any strength and crashing into Mexico by tomorrow or Thursday, dissipating almost immediately. I'm not too sure if I should believe the NHC or Ventusky models for TD13, considering how the latter has been right about both Irma and Jose.

[SaturnianBlue]

6 minutes ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

It looks like Jose could ALSO become a Category 5. Ventusky predicts that from September 11th to 14th, it will meander around the same area where Irma intensified into a Cat 5. By the 14th, Ventusky models suggest that winds could be as high as 156 mph, VERY close to becoming a Category 5 on the SSHWS. Having two back-to-back Cat 5's will be incredible. It will also be the first time that the name Jose would ever be used for a hurricane. 

Meanwhile, Ventusky doesn't predict much for Tropical Depression 13 (which actually is the 12th tropical depression of the year). Its models suggest the storm barely gaining any strength and crashing into Mexico by tomorrow or Thursday, dissipating almost immediately. I'm not too sure if I should believe the NHC or Ventusky models for TD13, considering how the latter has been right about both Irma and Jose.

Jose from 1999 was a Category 2, but it seems quite likely that this will be stronger—already predicted by the NHC to reach just short of major status. I don't expect much from TD 13, but it's still worth tracking.

[ProtoJeb21]

1 minute ago, SaturnianBlue said:

For such a strong storm, it's a little shocking to see that Irma's pressure is at 926 mb—all other hurricanes in the North Atlantic that ever got this strong were sub-900 mb storms. After the immediate danger affecting the Leewards, the big question will be when Irma turns.

There are now three storms in the Atlantic—quite the strong indicator of an active September.

It's possible that Irma's pressure may be lowing as we speak...or type, to be exact. If so then its winds may continue to strengthen as well. Speaking of an active September, this year is already two name slots ahead of 2016. At this time last year, Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine was being quite an annoyance while sitting of the Northeast coast. Thankfully, after the first round of bands from the storm hit my area, it sucked up EVERYTHING in the sky, leaving a crystal-clear night for astronomy. 2016's I-named storm, Tropical Storm Ian, didn't form until September 12th of that year. Who knows what else may pop up?

Also, Ventusky suggest that by September 14th, there could be a Category 1 hurricane in the East Pacific. According to its models, this hurricane would develop from the remnants of TD13 (if it does immediately smash into Mexico) being carried by a strong SW-SSW-WSW wind stream. By noon on the 12th, two areas of circulation develop - the largest one later becomes the hurricane. The smaller one only reaches tropical depression strength before dissipating the next day. This is when the large area of circulation attains tropical storm-force winds, before becoming a hurricane. If this does develop, the next name in the EPac would be Max.

[SaturnianBlue]

25 minutes ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

It's possible that Irma's pressure may be lowing as we speak...or type, to be exact. If so then its winds may continue to strengthen as well. Speaking of an active September, this year is already two name slots ahead of 2016. At this time last year, Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine was being quite an annoyance while sitting of the Northeast coast. Thankfully, after the first round of bands from the storm hit my area, it sucked up EVERYTHING in the sky, leaving a crystal-clear night for astronomy. 2016's I-named storm, Tropical Storm Ian, didn't form until September 12th of that year. Who knows what else may pop up?

Also, Ventusky suggest that by September 14th, there could be a Category 1 hurricane in the East Pacific. According to its models, this hurricane would develop from the remnants of TD13 (if it does immediately smash into Mexico) being carried by a strong SW-SSW-WSW wind stream. By noon on the 12th, two areas of circulation develop - the largest one later becomes the hurricane. The smaller one only reaches tropical depression strength before dissipating the next day. This is when the large area of circulation attains tropical storm-force winds, before becoming a hurricane. If this does develop, the next name in the EPac would be Max.

We're already quite on par for storms with seasons like 2008, though they already had 3 major at this point. Not quite like 2011, which already would've had Maria form, as well as an unnamed tropical storm, or the even more active 1995, which would've had Luis on this date.

Edit: Pressures of 920 millibars detected in the storm...

Edited September 5, 2017 by SaturnianBlue

[ProtoJeb21]

@SaturnianBlue Ventusky shows two areas in the Atlantic for potential development. On September 9th through 10th, an area of circulation with tropical depression-force winds crosses into the southwestern Caribbean from the area just south of Panama, in the Eastern Pacific. However, by the 11th it's gone, but a NEW small area of circulation forms in the open Atlantic a few hundred miles WNW/NW of the Cape Verde islands. Current models suggest that this thing - which also doesn't seem to live long - could reach maximum winds of 60 to 65 mph. Whether or not these two areas even develop into anything remains to be seen, but I recommend keeping an eye on them.

[cubinator]

I've got some weird clouds up here. Being north of Texas, I think this is what's left of Harvey.

[ProtoJeb21]

5 minutes ago, cubinator said:

I've got some weird clouds up here. Being north of Texas, I think this is what's left of Harvey.

No, Harvey's remnants exited out the East Coast on Sunday. You may be getting some stray convection from Tropical Depression 13.

39 minutes ago, SaturnianBlue said:

Pressures of 920 millibars detected in the storm...

They've sent in another recon mission already?

[SaturnianBlue]

26 minutes ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

No, Harvey's remnants exited out the East Coast on Sunday. You may be getting some stray convection from Tropical Depression 13.

They've sent in another recon mission already?

There's usually one en-route, in the storm, or one returning. Here's the site I track them with.

Now down to 917mb...

Edited September 5, 2017 by SaturnianBlue

[cubinator]

6 minutes ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

No, Harvey's remnants exited out the East Coast on Sunday. You may be getting some stray convection from Tropical Depression 13.

Maybe. It's like a big remnant of a storm.

[ProtoJeb21]

25 minutes ago, SaturnianBlue said:

There's usually one en-route, in the storm, or one returning. Here's the site I track them with.

Now down to 917mb...

I'll check it out tomorrow, probably.

The Weather Channel still has yet to update for Irma's new intensity...

[tater]

In other threads where I have posted pictures from my house, there is a mountain, Mt Taylor in the distance some 80 miles away... entirely invisible from wildfire smoke right now. Dunno where the fires are, CA, maybe?

The current guidance from the NHC shows it ending up on the West side of FL. That'll be brutal for Naples, Fort Myers, etc---not to mention the Keys, which will be shattered by this.

I suppose there is a non-zero chance it turns north early...

Edited September 5, 2017 by tater

[ProtoJeb21]

@SaturnianBlue Okay, I lied. I checked it out NOW, and the latest results do suggest more intensification. Pressure has decreased to 915 mbar, with winds from both models between 160 knots (184 mph) and 170 knots (196 mph). Oh holy Abeloth...

[tater]

 

 

[LordFerret]

On 9/4/2017 at 5:54 PM, tater said:

 

Oh this is perfect. Totally sums it all up for me. Thx.

 

On 9/4/2017 at 6:41 PM, Just Jim said:

There isn't much we can do, except wait and see what happens. We've been through several of these, and are about as stocked as we can be. Biggest problem is usually the power, so I might be off-line for a couple days, depending on how it goes.

But honestly, I don't really watch spaghetti models until about 3 days out... from my experience, any further back than that and they're just guessing... 

Green? Only time I've seen the sky turn green is if there's a tornado close by... 

My thoughts as well. We need to keep in mind, of the ramped-up hype "the most powerful storm in history", so many of the folks we're dealing with here (not necessarily meaning the folks in these forums specifically) aren't old enough to have lived through enough to know better enough. That said, my friend in Vero Beach has just informed me this evening that she already has plans in place, if need be, to get out of Dodge. I too have already made the call and put plans in place in case it makes a coastal run; However, unless it's over a Cat 3, I'm not going anywhere.

[ProtoJeb21]

46 minutes ago, tater said:

 

 

So it looks like Irma has sustained winds somewhere between 185 and 225 mph with a continuously dropping central pressure...

*insert Surprised Patrick image*

[tater]

This thing is a beast. People on the islands about to be clobbered are facing a terrible storm. What it's like in several days, who knows, but it's historically nasty right now, I'd not want to be on the NE side of this thing right now.

[tater]

Look at the ensembles now, too. They show skimming east of FL and hitting closer to Charleston.

That is some of them do. Others look much the same as what we've been seeing (farther west).

Edited September 6, 2017 by tater

[Ten Key]

On 9/4/2017 at 4:41 PM, Just Jim said:

Green? Only time I've seen the sky turn green is if there's a tornado close by... 

http://news.wisc.edu/curiosities-why-does-the-sky-turn-green-before-a-tornado-2/

 

On 9/4/2017 at 4:43 PM, SaturnianBlue said:

. . .HWRF is pretty bad for forecasting storms before they form, its apparently a good model for storm intensity once it develops.

HWRF (Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting) uses a nested grid system with a relatively high resolution in each grid. This allows it to model the finer detail inside a developing storm. However, since the regional atmospheric conditions span multiple grids the boundaries between the grids make it harder for the model to get a "big picture" of the overall environment. 

 

 

On 9/3/2017 at 5:47 PM, SaturnianBlue said:

Luckily for the GFS, there's a model that's a bit more... Extreme in its prediction...

HMON (Hurricanes in a Multi-scale Ocean-coupled Non-hydrostatic model) is brand new (it went live on or around August 15th) and as you can see, it is having some teething issues. I wouldn't trust it. 

 

 

4 hours ago, SaturnianBlue said:

 Irma has now produced more ACE than all of the other storms before it combined.

All other storms before it. . .for this season.  

 

7 hours ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

Irma is STILL strengthening! With the latest recon mission, it has winds of 185 mph and a pressure of 925 mbar. Considering the continued strengthening, Irma's very tropical cyclone-friendly location, and the 190+ mph models of the quite reliable Ventrusku forecast...well, this thing could possibly get even more intense. It may best out Hurricane Allen for the most intense Atlantic hurricane based on wind speed.

4 hours ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

It looks like Jose could ALSO become a Category 5. Ventusky predicts that from September 11th to 14th, it will meander around the same area where Irma intensified into a Cat 5. By the 14th, Ventusky models suggest that winds could be as high as 156 mph, VERY close to becoming a Category 5 on the SSHWS. Having two back-to-back Cat 5's will be incredible. It will also be the first time that the name Jose would ever be used for a hurricane. 

Meanwhile, Ventusky doesn't predict much for Tropical Depression 13 (which actually is the 12th tropical depression of the year). Its models suggest the storm barely gaining any strength and crashing into Mexico by tomorrow or Thursday, dissipating almost immediately. I'm not too sure if I should believe the NHC or Ventusky models for TD13, considering how the latter has been right about both Irma and Jose.

For the record, I asked some people who do this for a living, and no one had heard of these "Ventusky" models before. I wouldn't put any stock in their forecasts, no matter how slick their webpage might be. And I certainly wouldn't bet my life on them. 

 

 

5 minutes ago, tater said:

Look at the ensembles now, too. They show skimming east of FL and hitting closer to Charleston.

That image is from Monday night. Those tracks are old. 

[tater]

 

Edited September 6, 2017 by tater

[ZooNamedGames]

RIP me. Florida Man here and I can't go anywhere as I raise rabbits and I can't abandon them.

[tater]

15 minutes ago, ZooNamedGames said:

RIP me. Florida Man here and I can't go anywhere as I raise rabbits and I can't abandon them.

What part of FL?

The euro model has it skimming Cuba then going up the west coast or clobbering the SW of FL. GFS is off the east coast. It's a coin flip, probably.

[ZooNamedGames]

Just now, tater said:

What part of FL?

The euro model has it skimming Cuba then going up the west coast or clobbering the SW of FL. GFS is off the east coast. It's a coin flip, probably.

Dead center. Not that it matters. The size will have it covering the east coast if it goes to the west and covering the west coast if it goes to the east!