Weather Chat Megathread

[tater]

Here in Nuevo Mexico, virga is really common.

 

[LordFerret]

2 hours ago, DarkOwl57 said:

Agreed; Carolinas north would be bad (The megalopolis (s) of NYC, Penn, NJ, etc.). However, I think the best thing (Don't quote me wrong here) would be for the hurricane to hit an area that's prepared for it. (I'm gonna draw so much flak for this.) Florida is a state that gets continuously pummeled by Hurricanes. But they're ready for it. It would be waaaaay worse for a Hurricane to hit an area that's not prepared for a storm of this magnitude then an area that has prepared. I think this is kinda a battle os the lesser of two evils. Either hit an area that isn't all that ready for it that'll most likely kill it, or hit an area that is prepared but without a way to destroy it.

Ha. Allow me to introduce you to the Nor'easter.

 

15 hours ago, ZooNamedGames said:

Being up on a hill helps us only slightly. Trees may be the death of us.

This doesn't sound promising. For what it's worth, back in the day, folks used to use the cast iron bathtub for shelter... if you've got a cast iron tub that is.

How many rabbits are we talking here? How are you going to protect them, their hutch(s)?

[ZooNamedGames]

1 minute ago, LordFerret said:

Ha. Allow me to introduce you to the Nor'easter.

 

This doesn't sound promising. For what it's worth, back in the day, folks used to use the cast iron bathtub for shelter... if you've got a cast iron tub that is.

How many rabbits are we talking here? How are you going to protect them, their hutch(s)?

Sadly our tub is porcelain. So no protection there.

We have travel cages so we'll move them from the rabbitry into our own home. If they can't survive there, then neither can we.

Thankfully my mother is a teacher and her classroom is built to be a storm shelter, so push comes to shove we can abandon home and house all of us there.

[SaturnianBlue]

The Barbudan Prime Minister said that 90% of the buildings on Barbuda have been destroyed. Irma's central pressure has fallen to 911.3 MB. In other news, Jose is now a hurricane, and is expected to become a major in a few days, and Katia, which was a low end tropical storm this morning, is already a hurricane.

[ProtoJeb21]

12 minutes ago, SaturnianBlue said:

The Barbudan Prime Minister said that 90% of the buildings on Barbuda have been destroyed. Irma's central pressure has fallen to 911.3 MB. In other news, Jose is now a hurricane, and is expected to become a major in a few days, and Katia, which was a low end tropical storm this morning, is already a hurricane.

Sigh...ninja'd again. But yes, that is now SIX hurricanes in a row. Jose is forecasted to become the third major hurricane of the season in a few days, while Katia will get pretty close to - if not reach - Category 2 intensity.

[tater]

 

[Maelstrom Vortex]

Quote

MAJOR X-CLASS SOLAR FLARE: On Sept. 6th at 1202 UT, sunspot AR2673 unleashed a major X9.3-class solar flare--the strongest solar flare in more than a decade. X-rays and UV radiation from the blast ionized the top of Earth's atmosphere, causing a strong shortwave radio blackout over Europe, Africa and the Atlantic Ocean: 

The above is courtesy of space weather.com and the atlantic.

Now.. powerful enough to block out radio across continents and oceans. Imagine if a fraction of that is in the infra red band, consider the ocean is the largest thermal receiver on the planet. Consider that hurricanes are an outlet for over-charged thermal power in the ocean. Consider that we have 3 hurricanes now, one of which literally appeared out of nowhere. Do math.

Conclude North America is screwd.

Edited September 6, 2017 by Maelstrom Vortex

[GDJ]

57 minutes ago, Maelstrom Vortex said:

Conclude North America is screwd.

I'm setting up my camera on time elapse and enjoying the light show.

[DarkOwl57]

1 hour ago, Maelstrom Vortex said:

The above is courtesy of space weather.com and the atlantic.

Now.. powerful enough to block out radio across continents and oceans. Imagine if a fraction of that is in the infra red band, consider the ocean is the largest thermal receiver on the planet. Consider that hurricanes are an outlet for over-charged thermal power in the ocean. Consider that we have 3 hurricanes now, one of which literally appeared out of nowhere. Do math.

Conclude North America is screwd.

Whelp........................... I think we all know what this means.................. Where's my The Day After Tomorrow DVD?

4 hours ago, LordFerret said:

Ha. Allow me to introduce you to the Nor'easter.

Ah the almighty Snowstorm. Tell me; is that as bad as... this?

[SaturnianBlue]

Yikes, I wouldn't want to be on that flight!

[Maelstrom Vortex]

16 minutes ago, DarkOwl57 said:

Whelp........................... I think we all know what this means.................. Where's my The Day After Tomorrow DVD?

Ah the almighty Snowstorm. Tell me; is that as bad as... this?

When reality starts to play like a movie..  start looking frantically for pause and rewind buttons?

[ProtoJeb21]

@Maelstrom Vortex guess what? ANOTHER Atlantic hurricane is possible! The models are a bit iffy at the moment (since it's so far out), but Ventusky does suggest that a tropical wave will move off the African coast on 9/11 and possibly develop on the 12th or 13th. It may become a Category 3 hurricane only 100-200 miles west of the Cape Verde islands on the 14th, and on the next day it COULD be a Cat 4. I doubt the U.S. will be affected. Meanwhile, Hurricane Jose may get significantly closer to Bermuda than originally thought. Closest approach should be around the 11th or 12th, but it would have weakened from a 120 mph Category 3 from the 9th to a 90 mph Category 1. However, as it moves south, it could re-attain Category 3 status and maybe even a Category 4 by the 15th.

TROPICAL TIDBITS FORECAST: Hurricane Katia may reach pressures as low as 977 mbar (possibly as a Category 2 hurricane) before making a Mexico landfall around September 9th. Meanwhile, Hurricane Irma's pressure is expected to increase to about 930 mbar before one again strengthening later on the 9th. By that night it may beat out its old peak intensity, then reach near record-low pressure of 890 mbar. By September 11th, it STILL may have a pressure of around 900 mbar.

Tropical Tidbits also suggests the formation of a hurricane in the EPac by sometime next week, around the time that another potential hurricane (the Atlantic one) gets close to the U.S. before turning away.

EDIT: The latter forecast seems to suggest a Fujiwhara interaction between Jose and that other cyclone, which would be named Lee. Future-Lee may get to Category 1 or 2 intensity. Trop-Tid predicts a completely different track than Ventusky. Check out Tropical Tidbits HERE: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atltropics&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2017090618&fh=192

Edited September 6, 2017 by ProtoJeb21

[tater]

 

 

[ProtoJeb21]

Another NOAA recon flight is heading into Hurricane Irma.

[The Space Dino]

Dang, St.Martin

[LordFerret]

1 hour ago, DarkOwl57 said:

- snip -

Ah the almighty Snowstorm. Tell me; is that as bad as... this?

I remember that well. It was hot. We had some great days up on the beach. We also had a hurricane that year. Do I think it was bad? Yes, in the sense that some people suffered because they couldn't escape the heat, or didn't use common sense while out in it. But overall, no, not really, because it was a somewhat rare weather anomaly... it doesn't happen year after year after year. Nor'easters do. Consider that event against the Dust Bowl, that's something I'd consider bad.

I almost forgot, I have pictures from hurricane Irene of that year. I was out in it. I was also out in hurricane Floyd. To be honest, I think Floyd was harder to deal with... for me anyway, work and all that. Irene brought some good surf; I was out with fins on a boogie board while my buddy surfed outright. Fun stuff. I wasn't around for Sandy, I was out of state.

Spring Lake NJ, 2nd floor of the north-end pavilion, looking north; This is right after Irene passed us. Minor damage to the boardwalk, a section is missing, and the sand berm plowed into place is gone (washed away entirely), although the volleyball net survives. Go figure.

 

Same day / place, looking south.

Edited September 7, 2017 by LordFerret
Because I can't spell :/

[ProtoJeb21]

Hurricane Irma has slightly weakened, although it is still ridiculously powerful with 180 mph winds and a pressure of 921 mbar. Irma will continue a slow weakening trend for about a day or two, but just like the previous models, Tropical Tidbits predicts to to re-intensify around the Bahamas and the east coast of Florida into a sub-900 mbar Category 5 storm. It is likely to make a Miami and/or Carolina landfall at major hurricane intensity. Whether or not this ends up being the case, the fact that Irma has maintained Category 5 status and winds of at least 180 mph is incredible. Not only is the Accumulated Cyclone Energy for this storm going to be through the roof, but it may also become one of, if not the longest-lasting Category 5 in history. After landfall it will quickly weaken, thank goodness. However, I noticed something: this model for Hurricane Irma, showing its weakening and eventual re-strengthening, actually starts around the 4th or 5th and predicted Irma's lowest pressure at 920-930 mbar. This means that Irma may become more intense than an 890-900 mbar storm.

[Cydonian Monk]

14 hours ago, SaturnianBlue said:

Yikes, I wouldn't want to be on that flight!

It's not as bad as you think. I've flown through two hurricanes, one of them twice, and the turbulence during those flights was still less than what I usually get when coming in to land at IAH / Houston. Granted it's an hour or so of continuous turbulence, seatbelts buckled the whole time, no drink or snack cart, but it wasn't too bad. 

[XLjedi]

Shuttered up the house and planning to head north this evening...  

Anything higher than a cat-3 storm is nothing to mess with, even if you are accustomed to such things in S. Florida.  We'll hangout in the RV for a week or so in Tallahassee and just hope the eye doesn't pass over Jupiter.  Gonna go outside and take some "before" pics just in case for any insurance claims.  Anticipate our area probably without power for minimum of 4-7 days following the storm.  The local utility (FPL) is pretty amazing in this regard!

 

[Cabbink]

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurricane-jose-category-2-status/

This will be a problem. Jose just strengthened into a cat 2 within a few days. If it keeps up a exponential growth like most hurricanes, It could be a cat 4. And it's headed for Florida, the Carolinas, and Virginia. 

@ProtoJeb21

EDIT: oh. It's going to spin around like an idiot in the Atlantic. 

Edited September 7, 2017 by Cabbink

[ProtoJeb21]

33 minutes ago, Cabbink said:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/hurricane-jose-category-2-status/

This will be a problem. Jose just strengthened into a cat 2 within a few days. If it keeps up a exponential growth like most hurricanes, It could be a cat 4. And it's headed for Florida, the Carolinas, and Virginia. 

@ProtoJeb21

Don't worry, it's going to stop moving just south of Bermuda before moving off to sea. It's the next TWO storms I would keep an eye on. Future-Lee will likely just be a short-lived tropical storm, but GFS models show that two more Cape Verde storms could develop. The first will form around the 13th or 14th with peak intensity of about 965 mbar. By the 23rd, this Future-Maria will be HUGE and tech a new peak intensity of 958 mbar. While none will hit land, they'll be interesting to track otherwise.

[Benjamin Kerman]

Now theres another one called Katia...

[XLjedi]

2 minutes ago, Benjamin Kerman said:

Now theres another one called Katia...

Meh...  there's a new named storm every other day. 

We knew Irma was going to be trouble a week ago.  Storms A-G were non-events; Harvey wasn't too powerful, it just stalled and dropped tons of rain where they can't take it.  Irma is a scary one!  ...nothing like it in 25 years.  Hoping it loses some steam passing by Cuba.

 

[Cabbink]

15 minutes ago, XLjedi said:

Meh...  there's a new named storm every other day. 

We knew Irma was going to be trouble a week ago.  Storms A-G were non-events; Harvey wasn't too powerful, it just stalled and dropped tons of rain where they can't take it.  Irma is a scary one!  ...nothing like it in 25 years.  Hoping it loses some steam passing by Cuba.

 

Irma is actually predicted to possibly rebound from cuba.

[SaturnianBlue]

22 minutes ago, XLjedi said:

Meh...  there's a new named storm every other day. 

We knew Irma was going to be trouble a week ago.  Storms A-G were non-events; Harvey wasn't too powerful, it just stalled and dropped tons of rain where they can't take it.  Irma is a scary one!  ...nothing like it in 25 years.  Hoping it loses some steam passing by Cuba.

 

Katie does have a chance to rapidly intensify though - it might hit Mexico as a major hurricane, and I wouldn't be surprised if Jose already is one. I think it's likely we could see three major hurricanes at once, something even 2005 didn't achieve. Already, all three hurricanes have watches assigned to various areas.

I feel like 2016 was sort of like 2003 in the sense that both had an intense category 5 that caused most of the damage for that season, and were active seasons that seem to lead into even more active seasons... 2004 and 2017.

Edited September 7, 2017 by SaturnianBlue