Hurricane Irma

[Scotius]

Holy heck. I'm so glad to be living in a boring Central Europe. Good luck to you and your families, guys. Stay safe.

[DerekL1963]

4 hours ago, G'th said:

Because I've lived through every hurricane thats hit Florida since Andrew, and by experience know that Cat 3 storms are not going to kill us all as people are making it seem. 

In other words, you don't actually have any qualifications to be making meteorological predictions.  (I grew up in FL, I know full well that living in FL gives you no especial meteorological qualifications.)

NASA and the USAF, actually being responsible for lives and billions of dollars worth of infrastructure can't afford to play the "I'm from Florida and too cool to be worried" game.

[YNM]

All I can say is to stay safe. Make the needed preps. I could only assume on the ends of preps you people are more experienced.

One of my cousin and her family lives in Houston / San Antonio. I hope they're fine.

From the other end of Earth, stay safe !

Edited September 8, 2017 by YNM

[Nuke]

ignore me

Edited September 8, 2017 by Nuke
oops

[PakledHostage]

2 hours ago, DerekL1963 said:

NASA and the USAF, actually being responsible for lives and billions of dollars worth of infrastructure can't afford to play the "I'm from Florida and too cool to be worried" game.

Very true. And from what I can see from the news and other footage that is leaking out, it is naive to regard this storm as "just another hurricane". Look at what happened to St. Martin:

There is hardly any vegetation left. Modern concrete buildings have been ripped open like tin cans... Another video doesn't look like wind, it looks like turbofan exhaust:

Having been to St Martin many times, I am flabbergasted by the destruction. 

Edited September 8, 2017 by PakledHostage

[Nibb31]

This is a recent plot of the European model. Although it's still just a model, this one has proven to be the most reliable.

According to this, KSC is getting winds between 80 and 95 knots (150 to 170 km/h or 90 to 110 mph).

This is still rather "optimistic", as the strongest winds goes straight through the Everglades, rather than through Miami. The Keys will get a beating though.

Stay safe folks.

Edited September 8, 2017 by Nibb31

[Green Baron]

If you don't already know it, there's a stunning video of the eye of irma from an ISS outboard camera on the NASA page.

[Kerbart]

12 hours ago, G'th said:

Because I've lived through every hurricane thats hit Florida since Andrew, and by experience know that Cat 3 storms are not going to kill us all as people are making it seem. 

You may call it panic and overreacting, I call NASA's decision to prepare KSC for a passing storm sensible and prudent. But you're right; what do I know. I don't live there.

I do know that our local office, occupied by people who live there, has been evacuated and that they've been pulling our multi-milion dollar assets out of the region.

But I guess a "meh, I'm sure it's nothing" is also a sensible approach when facing possibe destruction worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

 

 

 

 

 

[Just Jim]

8 hours ago, DerekL1963 said:

NASA and the USAF, actually being responsible for lives and billions of dollars worth of infrastructure can't afford to play the "I'm from Florida and too cool to be worried" game.

With all due respect, I'm not sure why you would think NASA would act like this is their first big hurricane.. They've been around since 1958 (4 years before I was born) and they've survived more tropical storms and hurricanes than I can count, and they know what they're doing!

As for the rest of us Floridians, I don't know one person that isn't worried. We all know what's coming... but we've also been through this before. Myself many times. There is nothing more we can do at this point but wait. 

Now... as for the actual forecast, I've been watching the news all morning, and the big question now is whether it will hit Cuba or not. If so, it will weaken even more before turning.

The really good news is on the current projection up the state, it will weaken to a Cat-2 by the time it hits Tampa... plus we'll be on the west side, which is always weaker. Cat-2 is much better than a Cat-4. And yes, I've been in both.

 

Edited September 8, 2017 by Just Jim

[DarkOwl57]

Now I'm from Texas. West. Texas. Wind gusts of 45 to 60 are common occurrences. Tornadoes? Well, my area is relatively lackluster; only 1 tornado warning per year IN MY AREA. Tornadoes are terrifying for us, but thank God none of them have come close to what little civilization we have. But Hurricanes? Those are monsters. I've never been in one personally, but I have seen their aftermath. They. Are. Killers. Tornadoes (With average wind speeds at around 300mph for the big'uns) I'm fine with, because they're over in like 5 minutes. Hurricanes are monstrous, 100mph+ winds lasting for days. Good luck to my Florida Friends. Y'all gonna need it..

[DerekL1963]

3 hours ago, Just Jim said:

With all due respect, I'm not sure why you would think NASA would act like this is their first big hurricane..

I'm just addressing the "we're too cool to worry about hurricanes, it'll be nothing" attitude of some posters.   WRT NASA all I'm doing is reporting the facts.  They can't afford to be blase.

That being said, no new news this morning out of KSC, which is to be expected - they won't go into full shutdown and lockdown for at least another 24 hours.  Got an email this morning from a friend who works at CCAFS, they've been directed to finish all work that can't be deferred and finish their hurricane preps NLT noon and then head home.  Monday, the base is currently scheduled to be closed and from Tues onwards on an on call basis.  (I.E. go home, we'll call you when we need you or full access is restored.)  He didn't get much sleep last night as he spent it getting his house and 'go' kit prepped.
 

3 hours ago, Just Jim said:

As for the rest of us Floridians, I don't know one person that isn't worried.

My 73 year old mother...  Lived in Jax all her life, and the only time she's bailed was when she "went to visit" my brothers in NC for Matthew.  She refuses to make any preparations whatsoever.

I always get antsy during hurricane season.  Throw a dart at the coastline from Miami to the the VA Capes...  and the odds are it'll land within a hundred miles of family or friends.

[G'th]

7 hours ago, Kerbart said:

You may call it panic and overreacting, I call NASA's decision to prepare KSC for a passing storm sensible and prudent. But you're right; what do I know. I don't live there.

I do know that our local office, occupied by people who live there, has been evacuated and that they've been pulling our multi-milion dollar assets out of the region.

But I guess a "meh, I'm sure it's nothing" is also a sensible approach when facing possibe destruction worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

No one said anything about NASA's decisions. They prepare for every major storm that comes through, this isn't news. While the center is built fairly well, theres still tons of expensive equipment and infrastructure there that can easily get damaged even by a tropical storm, much less a large and powerful hurricane.

Its the general panic everyone is going through thats dumb.

[PakledHostage]

40 minutes ago, G'th said:

Its the general panic everyone is going through thats dumb.

I guess we'll see... I hope for their sake that you are right.

[mikegarrison]

1 hour ago, G'th said:

Its the general panic everyone is going through thats dumb.

It always is ... until it isn't.

It's topical to this forum to remind people that the attitude, "I've been through half a dozen hurricanes and they were never as bad as people said they might be," is what lost us two Space Shuttles. "We get some burnthough on those o-rings every launch, and it's never hurt us yet." "Foam always breaks off, but it's never hurt us yet."

Edited September 8, 2017 by mikegarrison

[G'th]

I would like to point out again that I'm in Merritt Island, Florida.  Which is several miles south of KSC.  

The hostility towards what I'm saying is rather unwarranted.  You all need to relax. 

[Clonos]

Welp, until now i realized my friend @ModerndayLink lives in an area close to the hurricane... i wish him good luck...

[Green Baron]

16 minutes ago, mikegarrison said:

It always is ... until it isn't.

It is generally a bad idea to stick to an erroneous assumption too long and then try to catch up with reality.

After we have seen what happened to the poor Caribbean islands, poor Cuba next in line and Florida queuing up i would, if the weather services advises me to run, not ask to where. That must be clear by then. A refractory mother will be converted into baggage.

Edited September 8, 2017 by Green Baron

[PakledHostage]

31 minutes ago, G'th said:

The hostility towards what I'm saying is rather unwarranted.  You all need to relax. 

FWIW, just because we disagree with your position doesn't mean we are "hostile" to it... You may well prove to be right, and by the sounds of it you have more on the line than most of us. But it also isn't unreasonable to argue in favor of taking a conservative position. 

Edited September 8, 2017 by PakledHostage

[Green Baron]

Latest predictions seem a little more relaxed for Florida.

[Ten Key]

52 minutes ago, Green Baron said:

Latest predictions seem a little more relaxed for Florida.

For Eastern Florida perhaps. Those of you on the West coast need to take another look at the latest track.

Going back and forth with a researcher now. . .it may be Saturday afternoon before they have a good feel for where exactly it's going to go. Interactions with Cuba are going to dictate where and how it turns. 

EDIT: It's worth noting that southwestern Florida is mostly swamp land, and may not weaken the storm as quickly after landfall as might otherwise be expected.  

Edited September 8, 2017 by Ten Key

[DerekL1963]

3 hours ago, G'th said:

I would like to point out again that I'm in Merritt Island, Florida.  Which is several miles south of KSC.  

The hostility towards what I'm saying is rather unwarranted.  You all need to relax. 

Your location is irrelevant G'th.  It doesn't give you any especial meteorological qualifications.   That's the source of the perceived 'hostility' - you keep setting yourself as some kind of expert and then trying to shut down the discussion the rest of us are having.  When we persist in having said discussions (against your wishes), you pop up again and the cycle repeats.

At any rate, KSC is now at Condition II, everyone nonessential has been sent home and they're making the final preparations.   Looks like they're planning on setting Condition I (everyone out of the pool except the rideout crew) sometime Saturday.

https://www.theverge.com/2017/9/8/16266282/hurricane-irma-nasa-kennedy-space-center-hurcon-preparation

Looking up the coast, I'm glad I'm not in the Navy anymore.  Stopping work in mid-stream and busting butt to get ready to haul tail out of port is Not Fun.  (And the time we could neither get underway nor submerge at the pier because we'd flood - even more Not Fun.  Glad that one zigged out to sea...)

[G'th]

1 hour ago, DerekL1963 said:

Your location is irrelevant G'th.  It doesn't give you any especial meteorological qualifications.   That's the source of the perceived 'hostility' - you keep setting yourself as some kind of expert and then trying to shut down the discussion the rest of us are having.  When we persist in having said discussions (against your wishes), you pop up again and the cycle repeats.

Please feel free to point out where I was trying to stop the discussion.  Again, what I'm talking about has nothing to do with the general preparation KSC is doing.

And actually, its not just my location. Its my experience. I've watched Florida take on all kinds of hurricanes and come out just fine. People are treating Irma like its going to be a Harvey-esque catatostrophe all across the state and right now only southern Florida is looking to get hit that hard. The panic people are going through is dumb. Most of the south has already evacuated or is getting into shelters.

This doesn't mean I'm not taking the storm seriously, but at the same time I'm not freaking out like I'm about to lose my house. 

[mikegarrison]

1 hour ago, DerekL1963 said:

Your location is irrelevant G'th.  It doesn't give you any especial meteorological qualifications.   That's the source of the perceived 'hostility' - you keep setting yourself as some kind of expert and then trying to shut down the discussion the rest of us are having.  When we persist in having said discussions (against your wishes), you pop up again and the cycle repeats.

At any rate, KSC is now at Condition II, everyone nonessential has been sent home and they're making the final preparations.   Looks like they're planning on setting Condition I (everyone out of the pool except the rideout crew) sometime Saturday.

https://www.theverge.com/2017/9/8/16266282/hurricane-irma-nasa-kennedy-space-center-hurcon-preparation

Looking up the coast, I'm glad I'm not in the Navy anymore.  Stopping work in mid-stream and busting butt to get ready to haul tail out of port is Not Fun.  (And the time we could neither get underway nor submerge at the pier because we'd flood - even more Not Fun.  Glad that one zigged out to sea...)

There is a big Naval Air Station right in the project path through the keys. Do they fly all the planes away to somewhere else, or do they stash them in hangers and hope the hangers survive? I would think that with mobile assets like planes, they would just move them.

51 minutes ago, G'th said:

Please feel free to point out where I was trying to stop the discussion.  Again, what I'm talking about has nothing to do with the general preparation KSC is doing.

And actually, its not just my location. Its my experience. I've watched Florida take on all kinds of hurricanes and come out just fine. People are treating Irma like its going to be a Harvey-esque catatostrophe all across the state and right now only southern Florida is looking to get hit that hard. The panic people are going through is dumb. Most of the south has already evacuated or is getting into shelters.

This doesn't mean I'm not taking the storm seriously, but at the same time I'm not freaking out like I'm about to lose my house. 

And I already pointed out to you that getting lucky before does not insulate you now. That's a cognitive bias.

[G'th]

1 hour ago, mikegarrison said:

And I already pointed out to you that getting lucky before does not insulate you now. That's a cognitive bias.

"Lucky"

Very funny. Should be a comedian.

[Just Jim]

57 minutes ago, G'th said:

This doesn't mean I'm not taking the storm seriously, but at the same time I'm not freaking out like I'm about to lose my house.

Actually, I'm more worried about the houses a few blocks from here. they tend to get flooded bad, and were in the middle of expanding a near-by retention pond. But it's not done, and I'm afraid they're gonna get flooded out again if the rain is really bad.  A few years back it got so bad we inherited my cat, Waldo:

Waldo is actually sort of on-topic, because like I said, we got hit bad a few years ago, and the houses just a few blocks (and few feet lower) from us got flooded out something terrible. And a few days later Waldo shows up in our backyard, begging to come inside... and we eventually let him. And it's been clear from that very first day he was a lost, and most likely flooded out, indoor house-cat. 

Waldo, the tropical storm survivor.