DDE Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 1 hour ago, kerbiloid said: oops. 404 ...why did I type the URL by hand? Because I was on a work laptop, that's why. https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4309361 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDE Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 MK is a bit tabloidy, but they have good access. They claim there's been multiple cases of 'largely asymptomatic' infectees inexplicably dying in their sleep in Gromo. https://www.mk.ru/politics/2020/04/01/rossiyskie-voenvrachi-raskryli-pervye-rezultaty-raboty-v-italii.html They also know the Russian military's secret sauce: 70% alcohol, peroxide and bleach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pds314 Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 (edited) On 2/3/2020 at 5:24 PM, magnemoe said: Yes I agree that infection rates is very under reported. This is an bad flue, think pig flu. Its not Spanish flue or Sars, granted if Spanish flue hit today we has way better tools but it would still be an serious blow. For some realistic horror movie stuff in this time. Your helpful nightmare fuel gas pump attendant An spoiler https://youtu.be/QSxaojFNAsU?t=392 Swine flu cfr: 0.02% This thing cfr: 2%. And this includes sone places (like the diamond princess), South Korea, and China where massive underreporting of cases is basically untenable. Maybe I'm a little late here but this is like a SARS with mega-buffed spreadrate faster than a cold or a flu but substantially nerfed lethality. It isn't really comparable to a flu other than in being MUCH better at spreading than one. It is also a very close relative of SARS and the virus is called SARS-CoV-2. Edited April 2, 2020 by Pds314 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDE Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 COVID-19. Beards. Yay or nay? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 2 of my wife's partners had beards. Both shaved them off (one for the first time in like 20 years). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fulgur Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 Total cases in the world by top countries. Active cases. The outbreak in China has been suppressed, while the outbreaks in Europe and America are growing exponentially. Source: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sh1pman Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 Data don’t look good here in RF. Worse than US and Italy atm. Perfectly exponential growth with no signs of slowing down. ~25% more cases every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
insert_name Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 50 minutes ago, tater said: A lot of the initial predictions were based on Chinese data, which has been modified by the government to improve the perception of their handling of the situation so its no surprise that the death toll will be higher than initially expected source: https://fortune.com/2020/04/01/china-coronavirus-cases-deaths-total-under-report-cover-up-covid-19/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 11 minutes ago, insert_name said: A lot of the initial predictions were based on Chinese data, which has been modified by the government to improve the perception of their handling of the situation so its no surprise that the death toll will be higher than initially expected Anyone who dies at home is obviously going to skew the stats, and the CFR is far more sensitive to the (lower) death numerator than the much larger cases denominator (meaning missing X deaths is worse than missing X cases). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDE Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 1 hour ago, sh1pman said: Data don’t look good here in RF. Worse than US and Italy atm. Perfectly exponential growth with no signs of slowing down. ~25% more cases every day. Could be handwaved as consequences increased testing. But I'm not so optimistic. There are signs that Moscow at the least has given up on tracing and has gone into mass epidemic mode. We'll see if the lockdown has had any effect, but once again I think it was rather timely. In other news, the Transbaikal Krai actually registered an increase in inebriation-induced disturbances in the first days of self-isolation, so they've escalated to the prohibition. https://75.ru/news/144532 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sh1pman Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 1 minute ago, DDE said: Could be handwaved as consequences increased testing. Nope. Increased testing would've reduced the deaths/cases ratio. In reality it is steadily increasing right now. 5 minutes ago, DDE said: But I'm not so optimistic. There are signs that Moscow at the least has given up on tracing and has gone into mass epidemic mode. Looks like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pds314 Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 (edited) As regards exponential growth, Italy and Spain are slowing down at least in terms of death counts. Logplot of total deaths in Spain is beginning to arc over. As it is in Italy. Sub-exponential growth in deaths is occurring there as well. In America the story is quite different. Exponential or even slightly superexponential growth is occurring in the USA with no clear sign of slowing. It appears USA could become one of the hardest hit countries. Edited April 2, 2020 by Pds314 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pds314 Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 (edited) Mainland China and South Korea, for reference of what an under-control outbreak looks like. Please note China's early start date is causing horizontal compression to its curve. South Korea still has close to peak deaths per day, but the outbreak size has decreased, with more than half of confirmed cases successfully recovering. This late death peak is expected because deaths are delayed, but more reliable and definitive than cases as a measure. China's [horizontally compressed] logplot. Deaths per day is in the single digits by now and is essentially invisible in the data due to severe (almost 98%) drop in number of active confirmed cases due to recoveries and deaths. This is what an outbreak on the verge of extinction looks like. Germany and the UK seem to have not yet decided if they will slow down the outbreak. Are these logplots noisy linear growth or slightly subexponentinial growth? I can't tell. Edited April 2, 2020 by Pds314 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cavscout74 Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 (edited) I was looking at wikipedia's pandemic page yesterday and noticed something strange - which seems to match a few statements in the press recently that China's numbers are seriously wrong. Wikipedia has a nice little table showing # of new cases per day from 16 Jan to 27 Mar. It goes moves upwards over time from a tens a day up to almost 4000 new cases/day from 31 Jan to 5 Feb, started to slowly decrease then suddenly spikes to 15000 new cases on 12 Feb, then 5000 the next day, then rapidly drops to hundreds, then tens of new cases per day over the next two weeks. Am I the only one that finds that strange? Everything I've seen indicates it can be spread before being symptomatic and it has well above a 1.0 reproduction rate. So all those 20000 new cases in two days had about a 0.8 reproduction rate (assuming those were the ONLY source of new infections from 12 Feb till 27 Mar)? I know a more restrictive government will have more success in enforcing a lockdown than a less restrictive one, but this still seems suspicious. Where I'm going with this - all my earlier assumptions were based on the early data reported by China. Total infections in the Wuhan area made up only 0.6% of the population despite weeks before any response was taken. So to me it looked like something that could be serious but not end of the world as long as people (and governments) weren't stupid. Which is what I've been using to reassure my wife the last few weeks because she has COPD and will almost certainly have serious problems if she catches it. Now I'm faced with the choice of continuing to reassure her (lie) or acknowledge its a lot worse than I thought and cause her to be even more scared than she is now. And she is barely able to cope as it is. Edited April 2, 2020 by Cavscout74 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikegarrison Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 To be blunt about it: I would not rely on any statistics being released by China. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StrandedonEarth Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 (edited) 59 minutes ago, mikegarrison said: To be blunt about it: I would not rely on any statistics being released by China. Oh, I’d rely on China’s stats... to be inaccurate... Edit: if not completely fictional Edited April 2, 2020 by StrandedonEarth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted April 2, 2020 Share Posted April 2, 2020 (edited) https://twitter.com/Buzzard_Stubble/status/1245842034545565702 OK, what? It's now back to having to select "plain text" to link? Edited April 2, 2020 by tater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cavscout74 Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 1 hour ago, mikegarrison said: To be blunt about it: I would not rely on any statistics being released by China. 37 minutes ago, StrandedonEarth said: Oh, I’d rely on China’s stats... to be inaccurate... Edit: if not completely fictional I should have known do know better, but they were the only numbers to go on till this started to really blow up in Italy. Honestly, I thought Italy's initial lockdown order was a bit of an over-reaction till I realized a few days later it was still advancing very quickly despite the order. I guess I had some lingering faith in people that - recognizing this had global consequences - there might be some semblance of accuracy in the original numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Selective Genius Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 Things have gone bad, really bad for India within just a couple of days. Its finally Panic Time. The curve looks bad, and it will get only worse in the next few days. Notice the sudden spike in the tally over the last two days? That's because apparently an evangelical event in New Delhi ignored government's orders against large gathering and in the event lasting 2 days, around 2000 people from India and abroad participated. The place where the event took place, behind closed doors without informing authorities is the new COVID-19 hotspot in India. Frantic efforts to trace and test those who have come in contact with the 400+ COVID-19 infected participants of this event led to this sudden spike. We almost had it under control Gosh Dang it!!! Source: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/india/ https://www.covid19india.org/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 17 minutes ago, Selective Genius said: We almost had it under control Gosh Dang it!!! Sorry to hear that. This whole COVID thing makes me wish the forum was less kid friendly language wise (and I use that sort of launguage in front of my kids anyway, since words are words, who cares?). %$#! SARS-CoV2! (imagine the most appropriate 4 letter word you prefer) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kerbart Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 Coronavirus is now the most common cause of death in New Jersey. A sad record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tater Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 That vid ^^^ is quite good. They talk about transmission via air, which is possible based on flu studies (finding virus in the air near people with flu, which is not the same thing as "airborne" like Measles), but the bottom line is that it seems to come down to wash hands, disinfect surfaces (in places where infected people are), and don't touch your face. Studies looking at PPE found that in negative pressure rooms, they didn't find virus on the PPE (except one shoe cover). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikegarrison Posted April 3, 2020 Share Posted April 3, 2020 I went out shopping today. It's the first day I've been out of the house since March 22. So if I get sick now, at least I'll know which day I got infected! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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