The UAE wants to go to Mars by 2021.

[Streetwind]

http://www.space.com/26629-the-emirates-paves-way-for-a-middle-east-space-program-with-its-mission-to-mars.html

For the first time, an Arab country aims to create its own space agency, develop its own launch capability, and conduct space missions for scientific purposes.

Depending on how this goes, this could mean a new drive towards space development in the entire middle east. And the UAE in particular have a lot of money to spend.

[78stonewobble]

Seems a bit optimistic...

Money is very good, no doubt about it, but it isn't everything. I'd assume that you would need a large highly skilled workforce as well?

Heck, you probably need machines to build the machines to build the machines that builds the rockets. If it's really... everything from the ground up.

[Seret]

Their objective seems to be to stimulate a high-tech knowledge-based economy. If they're just looking to develop payloads initially that seems realistic and admirable. Good on them.

[Godot]

Mabe they are the ones who are the first to erect a six star luxury hotel on Mars

[KerbMav]

Their objective seems to be to stimulate a high-tech knowledge-based economy. If they're just looking to develop payloads initially that seems realistic and admirable. Good on them.

You mean for the post-oil ...

[Seret]

You mean for the post-oil ...

UAE's not actually massively dependent on oil for a gulf state. They've got Dubai, which is a major financial centre, and they've been making a concerted effort to diversify their economy. Looks like oil is still about 30% of GDP, but it's not like they're Saudi Arabia.

[Sky_walker]

They've got Dubai, which is a major financial centre,

Thanks to the oil buisness and everything that lives around it

and they've been making a concerted effort to diversify their economy.

True. Question is - how much of it will survive once fields run dry?

[Seret]

Thanks to the oil buisness and everything that lives around it

Their money originally came from oil, but now they've got massive sovereign wealth funds and are investing in all sorts. Their finance sector can quite happily generate it's own revenue.

True. Question is - how much of it will survive once fields run dry?

Nobody would be happy about 30% of their GDP disappearing overnight, but UAE are pretty well positioned to be ok if oil revenues started to decline. Unlike some of their neighbours, who would be completely stuffed.

[Hattivat]

First of all, why does the Arabic video illustrating that space.com article depict a falcon heavy launching with a UAE flag? Did Space X give them permission for such promotional use?

Second, when it comes to the UAE economy, it's not oil that is the elephant in the room (although it's also important), it's the millions of South Asians working for peanuts in slave-like conditions. Dubai may be able to survive running out of oil, but it sure as hell wouldn't survive if its brown-skinned servants were to revolt or leave.

Third, if UAE were to develop their own satellite-launching capability, that pretty much equals having an ICBM capability, and might spark an arms race in the region.

[K^2]

No, UAE. Just because Americans keep sending robots to Mars, doesn't mean there is oil there.

Sorry. Couldn't resist.

Well, I'm pretty sure UAE can simply buy a decent space program. But even then, 2021 is a heck of a goal, in terms of available time. Best of luck to them anyways. Maybe it will motivate some people, if nothing else. And it will help increase demand for people educated in the field, which is always a good thing.

[Kryten]

First of all, why does the Arabic video illustrating that space.com article depict a falcon heavy launching with a UAE flag? Did Space X give them permission for such promotional use?

That's just a frankenstein of various rocket parts drawn up by some graphics designer; I imagine they don't have an actual design yet. Note it uses what looks like a Delta IV upper stage and what definitely is a Delta IV launchpad.

Third, if UAE were to develop their own satellite-launching capability, that pretty much equals having an ICBM capability, and might spark an arms race in the region.

As opposed to the situation now? Iran and Israel already have sat-launch capability, Pakistan has ICBMs, Saudi Arabia has IRBMs.

[Hattivat]

That's just a frankenstein of various rocket parts drawn up by some graphics designer; I imagine they don't have an actual design yet. Note it uses what looks like a Delta IV upper stage and what definitely is a Delta IV launchpad.

For me by far the most striking feature of the rocket is that its lower stages have foldable landing gear a'la Falcon reusable. And I'm not a Space X fanboy in case you were wondering.

As opposed to the situation now? Iran and Israel already have sat-launch capability, Pakistan has ICBMs, Saudi Arabia has IRBMs.

Sure, but the countries you mention are traditional big players in the region. UAE in turn is currently considered more or less harmless by the "big boys", like Norway or Hongkong. If they were to develop ICBMs and nukes (the latter might not be as far off as it sounds, they need something to power all these air conditioners once oil runs dry), it would drastically alter the balance of power.

On a side note - why Mars and not Venus? Given that they already live in a similar climate, I'd say UAE are uniquely positioned to develop Venus-applicable technology.

[Sky_walker]

Sure, but the countries you mention are traditional big players in the region. UAE in turn is currently considered more or less harmless by the "big boys", like Norway or Hongkong.

UAE has 15th largest military budget in the world. (depending on a sources to believe - it's between 15 and 17) - they are one of 4 major players in a region. Hardly anything comparable with Norway. In relation to GDP - they spend more money on arms than USA does (in 2012 - UAE: 6.9%, USA: 4.4%, Norway: 1.4%, Hong Kong: 0)

Edited July 24, 2014 by Sky_walker

[Hattivat]

UAE has 15th largest military budget in the world. (depending on a sources to believe - it's between 15 and 17) - they are one of 4 major players in a region. Hardly anything comparable with Norway. In relation to GDP - they spend more money on arms than USA does (in 2012 - UAE: 6.9%, USA: 4.4%, Norway: 1.4%, Hong Kong: 0)

Regardless of how much money they spend on conventional weapons, I've never seen any analysis discuss them as a potential threat to anyone or even as an active combatant in any potential war, so I'm assuming that no one really perceives them as a threat. Singapore also spends a huge pile of money on its defense (more than the vast Indonesia!), and somehow I don't see any of its neighbors being afraid of a Singaporean intervention, or feeling a need to raise their military spending to defend against the dreaded Singaporean invasion.

[Idobox]

I really think the main idea is to subsidize and encourage high-tech in the country, more than anything else.

If they want ICBMs, they can buy them, but UAE has realized decades ago that oil and gas won't last for ever, and they invest absurd amounts to diversify, and they want to sell stuff with high added value, hence high-tech.

If the government invests a lot of money in their space program, they will attract smart people from all over the world and train their own. This happened in the silicon Valley because of local Universities, but mostly because of the US Navy pouring dollars to get better military technology, and now you have an industry cluster that yields an enormous amount of money to the US economy, and the UAE want something like that.

They can of course sell space stuff, but they will also develop capacities in telecoms, avionics, precision engineering, electronics, solar panels, weapon systems, cryogenics... Stuff that can generate money outside the space business. The largest airplane manufacturers, Boeing and Airbus, are also heavily involved in Space and defense and would have never become so big without government money.

[Idobox]

Regardless of how much money they spend on conventional weapons, I've never seen any analysis discuss them as a potential threat to anyone or even as an active combatant in any potential war, so I'm assuming that no one really perceives them as a threat. Singapore also spends a huge pile of money on its defense (more than the vast Indonesia!), and somehow I don't see any of its neighbors being afraid of a Singaporean intervention, or feeling a need to raise their military spending to defend against the dreaded Singaporean invasion.

Low population countries are usually not seen as threats, because it takes a lot of soldiers to attack anybody, even more to invade them.

These small rich countries often spend money on actual defence (not on the Western conception where you defend yourself by invading other people), the idea being that they can't really attack you, but they want to be able to bite hard enough when attacked to deter their neighbours. The invasion of Koweit by Irak is still a fresh memory by every leader in the region.

[NFUN]

For me by far the most striking feature of the rocket is that its lower stages have foldable landing gear a'la Falcon reusable. And I'm not a Space X fanboy in case you were wondering.

Sure, but the countries you mention are traditional big players in the region. UAE in turn is currently considered more or less harmless by the "big boys", like Norway or Hongkong. If they were to develop ICBMs and nukes (the latter might not be as far off as it sounds, they need something to power all these air conditioners once oil runs dry), it would drastically alter the balance of power.

On a side note - why Mars and not Venus? Given that they already live in a similar climate, I'd say UAE are uniquely positioned to develop Venus-applicable technology.

I'm not sure that being in a climate 10-30 degrees warmer than the US on average, at the most, qualifies the UAE to be uniquely positioned to develop technology applicable to temperatures 800 degrees warmer than themselves...

Even if they were, the NASA is based largely in the South, and they could send some engineers out into the Western Texas deserts if they wanted to.

Actually, upon rereading your phrasing, I think this image is necessary.

[NFUN]

No, UAE. Just because Americans keep sending robots to Mars, doesn't mean there is oil there.

Sorry. Couldn't resist.

Well, I'm pretty sure UAE can simply buy a decent space program. But even then, 2021 is a heck of a goal, in terms of available time. Best of luck to them anyways. Maybe it will motivate some people, if nothing else. And it will help increase demand for people educated in the field, which is always a good thing.

I hope you don't mind, I'm stealing this joke

[Hattivat]

^On this topic I think someone ought to tell them Emiratis that there are literal lakes of hydrocarbons on Titan, I'd love to see some more hi-res pics of its surface.

As for Venus, yeah, that was obviously a joke, although one not entirely ungrounded in reality. I don't know what it's like in Texas, as I've never been there, but I don't imagine that living there in the summer involves moving from one refrigerated ("air-conditioned" doesn't quite fit the magnitude of climate control we are talking about here) closed space to another refrigerated closed space, and doing your best to avoid any sort of contact with actual outside air at all cost. I've been in Dubai for a day, and it really felt like living under a dome on some alien world where environment is hostile and all that keeps you alive is life support.

[Streetwind]

^I can confirm that Dubai definitely is like that during heatwaves.

[Seret]

Singapore also spends a huge pile of money on its defense (more than the vast Indonesia!), and somehow I don't see any of its neighbors being afraid of a Singaporean intervention, or feeling a need to raise their military spending to defend against the dreaded Singaporean invasion.

That's because you're not in Southeast Asia. Having served in that part of the world, and in fact had the pleasure of exercising with the Singaporeans on several occasions and serving with ex-pat Singaporeans I can assure that there are definite tensions in the region. The Spratleys, political and relgious instability and general belligerence in Indonesia, political instability in Thailand, etc all contribute to Singapore having to maintain one of the more competent military forces in the region. I assure you their neighbours take them very seriously.

It's quite possible you aren't completely up to speed on the balance of power in the Gulf States too (I know I'm not). In short, just because you haven't heard of the issues surrounding some far-flung country doesn't mean there aren't any.

[DaRocketCat]

The UAE is a lot less wealthy than y'all percieve.

It's revenue is of "only" $130B, compared to the $2770B of the US, and NASA's ~$18B budget.

It's also a lot less oil dependant that you think, 71% of its GDP comes from non-oil sectors. Dubai especially, receives its wealth from its position as a tax haven and as a hub for international finances.

[Hattivat]

That's because you're not in Southeast Asia. Having served in that part of the world, and in fact had the pleasure of exercising with the Singaporeans on several occasions and serving with ex-pat Singaporeans I can assure that there are definite tensions in the region. The Spratleys, political and relgious instability and general belligerence in Indonesia, political instability in Thailand, etc all contribute to Singapore having to maintain one of the more competent military forces in the region. I assure you their neighbours take them very seriously.

It's quite possible you aren't completely up to speed on the balance of power in the Gulf States too (I know I'm not). In short, just because you haven't heard of the issues surrounding some far-flung country doesn't mean there aren't any.

I think you misunderstood me here. I wasn't saying that Singapore* or UAE don't need to spend money on defense, they definitely do. And they are certainly being taken very seriously in the sense that Indonesia probably wouldn't dare to think of invading Singapore. But on the other hand neither would they ever seriously consider the possibility of Singapore invading them, because that's obviously never going to happen. What I meant was that countries like Singapore or UAE are usually not perceived as external threats, and thus their defense expenditures do not spark an arms race. So for example when UAE buys new tanks, Israel or Iran is not going to double their defense expenditure in panic, because they know very well that the chance of these tanks ever being offensively used against them is pretty much zero. But if and when UAE developed ICBM and/or nukes, I expect it would all change - they would suddenly graduate from "small, opulent state with an oversized defense force" to "serious competition with power projection capabilities". That's what I meant in my previous comments.

It's entirely possible that I'm not up to speed on the region, but given how much coverage it receives, and my penchant for reading articles on foreign affairs, if UAE military was considered a major factor in future Middle Eastern conflicts, I'd expect to see recurring mentions of that fact.

*It happens that I do know a fair bit about the region, as I've lived in Indonesia for over a year and can speak the language almost fluently. Can't boast of too much contact with the expats, as I've found most of them extremely off-putting, but I did have more than my fair share of contact with the locals. No idea what "general belligerence" you are talking about, relative to their size they hardly have an army to speak of.

[Godot]

^I can confirm that Dubai definitely is like that during heatwaves.

Well, but I guess, nothing beats Venus´ rains of sulphuric acid

[Kryten]

Getting space launch capability is hardly equivalent to having nuclear weapons capability; and as other people have noted, if they wanted ballistic missiles they'd just do what the Saudis did and buy from the Chinese.