Future of the "Space Treaty"

[lajoswinkler]

FTL travel is 100% more possible than it was 30 years ago.

No. (10 char)

[Bill Phil]

Just ensure their dependence on Earth.

[Nibb31]

Or just use robots.

[cicatrix]

FTL travel is 100% more possible than it was 30 years ago. Considering the probability of us obtaining the means to travel FTL is estimated at .01-.1% which may seem stupidly unlikely. It was considered impossible in the past, and so assuming future advancements make it possible, Human colonization of the galaxy is inevitable. So how would the nations of the world decide things such as ownership of colonies? Would each nation be allowed exoplanet territory on a planetary basis? Would these habitable planets be divided by region? Would humanity found a global governing body that allows equal access to every nation in the name of the human race?

Short answer:

Remember colonial wars? We have already seen that during the Age of Discovery (starting from Columbus). I don't think anything would change all that much.

This gets a bit more complicated. Yes, if nations (individual states) still exist when (if) our technology ever allows FTL colonization it will be like during the colonial wars era. But I have strong doubts about that. Even now humanity stands on the verge of re-thinking the notion of state, government, nation even. Cultures intermix, national borders mean less and less and there is a point of time in the near future when they would become meaningless. People travel from country to country, from continent to continent and, strictly speaking, in 50-100 years it would be very hard to even give definitions to the words like 'nation', 'country' or 'state'. Yes, there will be governments over territories of sorts and police, of course, but no nations certainly, no separate cultures or peoples. Everything will be intermixed to a point when finally the only definition that would be possible to dive to us would be just 'human'.

So, returning to space colonies - I think that at that point (and we are speaking about the future more distant than 'the end of nations') it would be just as fair as it should be. Whoever plants the flag first owns the place. Besides, having the FTL tech we will have so freaking many possibilities that I doubt such arguments ever arise. If this place is occupies I'll just continue on until I find another one - there are far more stars out there than there are us.

Speaking of this I can consider the future not so distant - Moon for example. Nations can argue and sign treaties about who will own which part of the Moon, but it is pointless. Whoever gets to the Moon and controls (or defends) some territory of it will own it and all the treaties will be a subject to revision.

[prophet_01]

Corporations selling mined resources is definitely legal under the treaty; this has been tested. NPO Lavochkin auctioned off some lunar soil samples returned by soviet probes.

Thx for clearing that up.

"Habitable" space is actually not that big. The places with ressources like water and ores, that are also easy to reach and have the opportunity to use solar power aren't that common. There will definetly places that are much better suited for a certain mission than others. I would expect the same regarding asteroid mining. The number of easy to redirect NEO that hold enough ressources to break even some day is not going to be that big. If you also take into acount that companies won't wait years for the next big opportunity to swing by... Anyway, somebody has to prove that it's possible to actually break even first. The R&D costs of mining equipment and probably refineries that work in zero-g are going to be devastating, at best

edit: I'm talking about near future here, no FTL considered. FTL would change everything for sure, but I guess that since we don't know what the limits of such a technology are going to be (size weight, min/max trip distance, costs), it's not that easy to get a glimpse of what accessable means at that point. Those limits will define the market or colonisation, I think. Btw, I don't think FTL will be the trigger technology for space expansion anyway, the payload to orbit costs seem to be a lot more importsnt atm. A cheap access to space would solve most of our courrent problems

Edited January 21, 2015 by prophet_01

[magnemoe]

The "Red Mars / Green Mars / Blue Mars" by Kim Stanley Robinson (IIRC) has an interesting take on how cultures could affect Mars colonization.

Space is huge, and so is the amount of real estate on the Moon. There should be little need to fight over a rock. The South Pole craters are an exception, as the only known spot on the Moon with significant amounts of water.

Yes, see the south pole crater as the only conflict area, more so, some places on the rim has sunlight and view of earth all the time making them perfect for an relay.

Might be some ice on the mars moons to who might become interesting later on but the south pole crater is the only limited spot who can be commercial and strategical interesting in the next 50 years.

[KerbMav]

No. (10 char)

Well, maybe yes ... 0 +100% = ... ?

Just ensure their dependence on Earth.

So, some form of tyranny combined with slavery?

I think colonies will grow from corporate expeditions.

Company A sets up industry on Moon/Mars and as life gets easier (more self-sustained) up there, it might become cheaper to ferry the families of their employees up instead of granting regular vacations. Think of it as a town growing close to a gold mine in the past.

To even get to a point of self-sufficiency one would need an army of workers from all fields - heh, yes, (hydroponic-)farmers above all else - so a full-fledged colony would be in the interest of said company.

What were needed, was an International Law for Space Colonization: Every colony constitutes its own "nation", the company only gets the right to profit from the land, the colonists get to form a governing body of their choosing. (Something like that at least.)

[Sirrobert]

Whatever happens, there'd better be space pirates. I'd be sorely disappointed in humanity if it was all a lie.

That's the thing, would battle in space even be possible? Orbits would be properly protected, and in intergalatic space, it's probably going to be impossible to even FIND a target. If there's no FTL, there will be no piracy, obviously. But if there is FTL, would combat be possible during FTL? I doubt it. So that's going to limit what piracy can do.

Just ensure their dependence on Earth.

Right, because that worked out so well the last time a bunch of rich countries tried it

[magnemoe]

That's the thing, would battle in space even be possible? Orbits would be properly protected, and in intergalatic space, it's probably going to be impossible to even FIND a target. If there's no FTL, there will be no piracy, obviously. But if there is FTL, would combat be possible during FTL? I doubt it. So that's going to limit what piracy can do.

Right, because that worked out so well the last time a bunch of rich countries tried it

Depend on how FTL works, with hyperspace it would be hopeless, the FTL drive used in the Mothe in the Gods eye would make space piracy pretty easy.

it worked by letting you jump between star systems from specified points in a star system to other systems, most of this points was in the other part of the solar systems.

Now if you was between two jump points in an uninhabited solar system you could intercept ships pretty easy.

[lajoswinkler]

Well, maybe yes ... 0 +100% = ... ?

Nah. Not gonna happen.

[Kruleworld]

I think the concept of 'unowned' space is admirable, but never gonna happen. Human beings are greedy little b****rds, depressingly so. Matter of fact, I'll throw money on the fact that the argument of "who gets to own the moon" will be the start of WWIII

the best we can hope for is another 'space race' to try and claim as much of the moon as possible, will at least give us another technological surge in space travel and related tech.

[Herr Doktor Strangemember]

The big issue as I see it would be how much and how easy it would be to create a FTL ship. At first it would have to a government that would do it, corporations are conservative usually and like to have others take the big risks. Now the first wave colonies would be chosen by the nation and treated well, and a source of national pride and likely lavished with tender care due to the prestige of the nation at stake.

If the cost for FTL tech doesn't go down much it would likely stay that way, with only 1st world countries expanding into space and the cost in money and political capital keeping close ties to the mother country. Once the FTL tech is proven and there is sufficient slack in the FTL ship network is when other countries might try expanding into space, but more likely it would religious/cultures/ideologies that would make the second wave.

Alot of those groups want to be left alone, or want to alone to practice their beliefs away from the rest of us. Planets might be colonized by, of the top of my head, the Mormon Faith, strict Islamic Law, the State Israel, anti-government groups, basically any group with surplus cash and the desire to left alone. These colonies will be likely a 'dump and desert' kind with contract being limited based on the cash flow to rent a FTL ship and the various groups sending 'second wave' colonists.

The third wave is where you'd likely see corporations appear, those colonies would be off planet factories designed to do 'something' likely heavy manufacturing or resource extraction with no pesky EPA, OSHA, or Greenpeace around. Those types of colonies would be likely chosen carefully for resources, likely there would be a two or three tier workforce. First tier would be those working directly for the company that started the colony, second tier and maybe third tier would be those brought support the colony (farmers, 'grunt' labour). Everything would be run or controlled by the company, a modern East Indies corporation is likely. Most of the 'work' would be done in space, but the planet would be used to support the space industries (food, R&R etc)

If the price of FTL ships/transport continue to drop a 4th wave would be those that didn't get into the other waves, smaller countries or groups would likely try to move out, maybe long term leasing space on a 1st wave planet, or trying to find their own, these colonies would be very marginal at start, and would end up very independent, a combination of 'we did it ourselves' and 'you aren't one of us'.

Anyways that's how I see it happening in very general fashion. It will depend on the cost of the FTL tech, how easy it is to build.

If FTL tech is cheaper things get different, more FTL ships means Earth can keep a closer 'watch' on the colonies because more ships more contact this will mean the colonies get more support from Earth if something goes wrong (natural disasters, like a plague or running out of coffee ). If the FTL tech is more expensive fewer ships less contact, colonies are more on there own and need more up front prep since they only see a FTL ship once every year or two. The same situation applies to the speed a FTL ship moves at, faster means more contact with Earth, slower more on their own.

Once a colony becomes successful things will start to change when they no longer need that lifeline, once they can build their own infrastructure and FTL program then they can develop thier own identity.

I could go into alot more on this subject, but I'm not going to.

Converse in our own Solar System it'll likely be a case of those that can will do as they please until space is available to everyone. If the USA is the only country that reach...Titan and decides to claim it how can any other country dispute it? Space based resource extraction and manufacturing means economic pressure/warfare is likely useless or inefficient, and armed conflict? Not likely as a country that can exploit space can very easily exploit dropping rocks on an uppity country.

Treaties and the like are nice and noble but they fail unless everyone involved can effect everyone else in meaningful way.

[Nibb31]

Until proven otherwise, FTL is science fiction at this point. We might as well be debating teleportation and time travel.

[Pds314]

Space is probably gonna remain unowned until somebody says they own it, parks their spacecar there, and puts up a sign saying "trespassers will be shot."

[Sirrobert]

Isn't that how all claims on new land work though?

Park your flag there and shoot anyone who tries to do the same.

[KerbMav]

Isn't that how all claims on new land work though?

Park your flag there and shoot anyone who tries to do the same.

You mean the Eddie Izzard Law?