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JoeSchmuckatelli

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Everything posted by JoeSchmuckatelli

  1. That there is the clencher. Interestingly, those looking back see the game changing tech as 'something that fulfilled a need.' (the problem is identifying that need) One story was of a guy who held one of the first calculators* in his hand in 1972 and thought 'this is never going to take off'. (Being able to look at a 1972 HP Calc and anticipate the iPhone & etc?) So - for those participating... I don't think we should to try to foresee the endstate device... Rather - can we identify the current '1972 calculator'? What current curiosity (whether mil-tech or prototype or whatever) is going to blow up and be the next thing? ... Part of me wants to point at Starship - maybe Space is ready to go from something only rich governments do to the region where lots of people live and work. Or maybe biotech - and 80 years from now everyone has biomedical implants and lives at least 200 years. The thing I wrestle with is which historical analog is likely. Factories, trains and electricity were all huge projects where if they weren't done by the government were government adjacent (super rich investors protected by the govt) - whereas electricity, cars and microchips (once produced) were personal and proliferate (my lights, my car, my phone). * http://www.hp.com/hpinfo/abouthp/histnfacts/museum/personalsystems/0023/index.html#:~:text=The HP-35 Scientific Calculator,world's first handheld scientific calculator.
  2. I gather from the pundits that they mean a process by which the leading technology of the day is either ubiquitous or is bypassed in importance by the next 'killer app' that proves transformative. Cars and trains certainly did not disappear when the microchip came out, but by and large they'd already been as transformative as they could be (obviously they've continued to improve (faster, more efficient etc) - but in large part by utilizing the microchip.
  3. Thing is - I haven't really agreed with the prognostication I've heard - that's why I think folks here might be better than political scientists and historians at guessing about the actual Need that the game changing tech will exploit / resolve.
  4. I've been delving into a variety of historical and political topics and analysis recently - which I won't post about here - but an interesting thread emerged in a couple of them, that I think works with the theme of and people who populate this forum: The concept of 'cycles' or game-changing technological inventions that effectively brings on a new age of development and prosperity (although and albeit via massive disruptions and disenfranchisement of the prior beneficiaries). The examples given (largely focused on the US/West) are: Factories the Railroad Electricity the Automobile, and finally, the Microchip. Each new technology had a massive impact - a transformative impact - on not only the economy, but also society and how humans use our time and interact with the world. One part of this thesis is that we are (with Social Media & the ubiquity of the Microchip in pretty much everything) at the end of the current era / cycle. If true - we are ripe for the next big 'game changing technology'. Prognostication isn't my strong suit* but maybe some of you have ideas? What's your guess about the next game changer? Necro justification on p. 3 *(or I'd have picked a different long-shot in the Derby!)
  5. I was scrolling past this quickly and it struck me I'd seen a similar picture I'm guessing that orange is the new black? That level of fidelity is amazing! Tater's link OP wished to have had a Spitzer image (and now I see why) - but Webb's? Wowsers
  6. Welcome Lord Sauron! Volcanic Lightning: The Science Behind This Spectacular Phenomenon (scitechdaily.com) (You should see this just for the photos)
  7. Ever wonder what your monkey-mice ancestors looked like during the age of the dinosaur? https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.inverse.com/innovation/oldest-human-ancestor-fossil-found-in-montana/amp
  8. Edit - I'm 100% serious about this. The post in the SpaceX thread announcing that it was a year ago that SN 15 flew... Dunno. Just dropped the floor out for me
  9. I am all out of hype. How's Cyberpunk? I need something to do for the next 6-8 months
  10. Human faces are getting smaller. In fact present day human faces are on average smaller than the faces of people living just 200 years ago (We just keep getting cuter!)
  11. https://www.nbcnews.com/science/science-news/americas-largest-cave-figures-discovered-alabama-rcna26203 1000 year old cave paintings - revealed by photogrametry
  12. I wouldn't bet on that - while I have never stood close to any rocket not measured in hundreds of millimeters (diameter)... Those I have and the 120mm and 155mm cannons I've been immediately adjacent to when firing leave an impression whether you can hear them or not. ...or perhaps I should use the word compression. These things (my stuff) are already such a physical experience distinct from the sound (which is daunting enough) that I think even a deaf from birth person would be affected virtually identically as a hearing person just from the sheer physical impact
  13. We are literally watching a game changing evolution in combat unfold before our eyes. The US and others anticipated this and have been leaning into this for a while - but mostly from the academic and R&D aspects especially since pulling back from our recent escapades. Much of what I am seeing fleeted are creative iterations of existing, proven weapons - but with increased lethality and less collateral potential. But some of the more speculative potential is still a diy or prototype deployment - not generally by professional militaries themselves, but by motivated and innovative individuals or units within those services. That is a far cry from a fleeted, proven system shaping the battlefield. However, because of the active combat - the early stuff currently available is being fielded earlier than anticipated and the lessons being learned will result in an exponential growth of the sector. There are and will be dead ends - along with killer refinements and some pretty unexpected but lethal things getting thrown into the mix. The money being thrown around will assure this. The longer this goes on the better the systems will become - and the 'learning how to counter' techniques and technology will follow closely on the heels of the new 'new'. The problem is that fleeting uniform systems that can be logistically supported via a military - things that are robust reliable and reusable will take time. The one-off diy quad that works a few times now, will break or will be jammed or possibly taken over. Those things are very different from proven sustainable weapons that can be deployed theater wide. I don't know what non-NATO acquisition timelines are generally like - but I can say that NATO's turnaround from 'good idea' to 'let's fleet that' looks like warp speed compared to the 80s, 90s and Aughts. The current combatants have the problem of no pre existing stores of proven mil-tech ready to deploy - but the ability to cobble stuff together and at least have some of the game changing stuff available. That's why modded OTS gear is having an impact. The OTS stuff, btw will be very quickly rendered useless due to countermeasures (based on current, fleeted tech) in short order. (Think about the ease of recording unencrypted phone calls and texts - that tech can be slightly modified to own a Red Team OTS drone.) All I can say about your actual question, however, is to keep an eye on your favorite OSINT provider's feed. The stuff you are looking for will be appearing on videos before you know it
  14. Anything in the MW - Mayo spectrum is banned by my wife. If my dad brings some over for a family meal, she very politely waits till he's gone to have me throw it out (she won't even touch the jar) The problem is that you get 14 pieces of pepperoni and 7 pounds of mushrumps on any given pizza. Them and black olives (my mother's favorite) are apparently sold for a dollar per ton vs the ounces of meat you get on a pie
  15. My wife's sentiment, exactly. (We don't eat at his place, much)
  16. I grew up with mayo - or more correctly, Miracle Whip. My dad's favorite topping for... Everything. My wife (for all her fine qualities) has a pathological aversion to all things mayo - and tolerates my pathological aversion to the sexual reproductive structures of fungi. So - no mayo in the house. (Or fungus. ) That said - I can't disagree: there are many fine things that go with a little bit of mayo.
  17. Guess it could be Nov 5, 2022 - just so KSP2 can be released 2 years after thread OP...
  18. Seriously - it has to be National Churro Day... Otherwise I lose the office pool.
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