Artemis: Could SpaceX Land on the Moon by 2019? Now with a new mission overview!

[_Augustus_]

I've made a new plan. And it's a 6-month stay now!

So, over the past few weeks I've been working on a reasonable process for a SpaceX and Bigelow Aerospace-manufactured lunar landing by or in 2019. The destination? The lunar south pole/Aitken basin. It's called Artemis.

It involves 5 Falcon Heavy launches, and it would accomplish the following goals:

[I]1. Analyze the water ice content of Aitken and see if a colony could be established there.

2. Demonstrate in-orbit rendezvous spacecraft technology.

3. Demonstrate the full capability of the Raptor engine.

4. Set up a permanent outpost that can be visited by future missions.

5. Prove that the Dragon V2 can be used beyond Earth Orbit.

6. Prove that long-duration lunar missions can take place safely.

7. Use minimal non-existent hardware.

8. Prove that a deep-space habitat can be re-used, whether for the same or different purposes.[/I]

So far, the plan is to have the first two Falcon Heavies to launch to assemble the Gazelle spacecraft, which is composed of two modules: A BA-300 and the service module, which is composed of a fuel tank and a Raptor engine. It will be used as a transit habitat and an Earth Departure Stage throughout the mission.

The next Heavy launch would be for the Re-Usable Ovoid Lunar Outpost Module (RULOM). It would be a surface version of the BA-330.

The fourth Heavy would launch a Dragon-L. It's a Dragon filled with supplies and experiments with the trunk replaced with a new module: The Lunar Deceleration Stage (LDS). The LDS' purpose is to slow down the Dragon or Dragon V2 spacecraft to the point where it's main landing engines will be able to land it safely.

The Dragon-L would then land close to the RULOM.

A few days later, the final Falcon Heavy, carrying a Dragon V2-L (Just a V2 version of the Dragon-L carrying 3 or 4 people) named Artemis I would launch. The V2-L would dock with Gazelle and then the two docked spacecraft would proceed to lunar orbit. The Gazelle would be placed in a very low parking orbit that will only last about a year, but it won't stay there for that long. The purpose of the extremely low orbit is because the V2-L's main landing engines still don't have the Delta-V to get to a normal lunar orbit.

The V2-L would then land in a similar fashion to the V1-L, near the RULOM and V1-L. The crew would then exit the V2-L and live in the RULOM for the next six months.

After six months have passed, the crew would board the V2-L, ascend to low lunar orbit, and then depart for Earth. Gazelle would be placed into a stable LEO orbit to be converted into a space station or re-used for another Artemis mission. Artemis I would re-enter and recover safely.

So what does everyone think of this new plan?

Edited May 17, 2015 by _Augustus_
Re-did plan.

[Bill Phil]

No. Unless they have a secret program we don't know about. But if that's the case, they'll need to launch a heavy lift rocket soon for a test.

You just can't make a spacecraft like this in four years. Now, if they were to add more shielding to Dragon V2 and some kind of hab module, and were willing to use EOR extensively, then they could create a spacecraft that could operate as a transfer craft for many Lunar visits from LEO in about 8 years.

[Hcube]

Manned mission in 4 years ? errr... no. They haven't sent any astronaut in space yet, they don't have any heavy-lifting rocket, they don't have a lot of money, they don't have the dragon V2 up and working yet...

The NASA did it in a full decade, Boosted by the pressure due to the cold war, with experience thanks to mercury/gemini missions, with billions and billions of dollars, and the biggest rocket ever built. Now SpaceX is very far from this.

I could totally see a SpaceX unmanned mission landing on the Moon in 4 years though.

[Kibble]

2019? No way, but maybe someday. I would totally go all fangirl if Elon goes thru with a piloted mission to anywhere BLEO. Where they get the funding for that is beyond my pay grade - that is, opining with no experience.

Like six months ago I did some math4fun and Falcon Big-5 (fictional five freaking Falcon 9 cores) under a Falcon 9 second stage modified for increased loiter time and a Dragon 2 with a stretched trunk to hold an LK lander could totally make it. Of course, somehow you'd have to horizontally integrate a five core vehicle, and somehow get the astronaut from Dragon to LK and back, lol.

[Karriz]

No, not in near future anyways. Unless some eccentric billionaire decides to pay the bill.

Once they have a Mars rocket, they could probably do a Moon mission with some modifications.

[jwenting]

Saturn V isn't the biggest rocket ever built. It's possibly the biggest ever successfully launched (though Energia is pretty darn big too). The N1 was larger, but of course never worked.

SpaceX isn't going to the moon by 2019. They don't have the hardware, they don't have the money, and they don't have the time to get all that hardware and money AND get that hardware certified so they can legally launch it (yah, they could in theory launch from outside territorial waters and not need licenses and permits, but that would be even harder, more expensive, and require even more hardware).

[FishInferno]

I do not think that SpaceX will land on the Moon in the near future or ever. However, it seems perfectly logical to me for them to use Falcon Heavy to do an Apollo-8 style mission to orbit the Moon, even if it is just a PR stunt to show that they are serious about going to Mars.

But if a private company develops a lander, who's to say they can't buy a Dragon and 2 launches to go to the Moon.

Also, if/when Bigelow builds a Moon Hotel, I could easily see Dragons and CST-100s ferrying tourists to the Moon and back.

[_Augustus_]

Okay, so I've looked at some stuff:

1. The Falcon Heavy has the power of a Saturn C-3. This means that with 2 launches it could launch an entire CSM and LM.

[Darnok]

According to wiki http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dragon_V2

uncrewed robotic orbital flight to the ISS, and finally a 14-day crewed demonstration mission to the ISS in 2017.

I read somewhere else they want first manned flight to ISS in 2018.

I doubt it Dragon v2 has any shielding against Van Allen belts, so it looks like in 2019 they won't even make manned flyby around the Moon.

[xenomorph555]

Ain't happening, for many reasons the biggest being; It would take 6-10 years to plan, design, test, build, test and then manage all the new hardware. 4 years is beyond impossible.

[Frozen_Heart]

SpaceX has never stated that they want to go to the Moon so I can't see them doing it.

[Bill Phil]

Okay, so I've looked at some stuff:

1. The Falcon Heavy has the power of a Saturn C-3. This means that with 2 launches it could launch an entire CSM and LM.

That's forgetting the TLI stage...

[John FX]

I voted maybe. Not in four years for sure though but eventually, maybe.

[tater]

Manned mission in 4 years ? errr... no. They haven't sent any astronaut in space yet, they don't have any heavy-lifting rocket, they don't have a lot of money, they don't have the dragon V2 up and working yet...

The NASA did it in a full decade, Boosted by the pressure due to the cold war, with experience thanks to mercury/gemini missions, with billions and billions of dollars, and the biggest rocket ever built. Now SpaceX is very far from this.

I could totally see a SpaceX unmanned mission landing on the Moon in 4 years though.

The first CSM (command/service module) flight was in 1966. The first lunar landing was in 1969, and without the Apollo 1 incident, it might have been at least a year sooner, possibly 18 months. Dragon is supposed to fly manned in what, 2017?

Grumman got the LEM contract in September 1962, the first launch was in '68.

2019 would be a bit of a stretch starting tomorrow morning, but it's not as daunting as people might think, since it really matters that we know it was done, and HOW it was done before, which makes it far easier than starting from nothing. At the time, NASA looked at earth orbit rendezvous, and lunar orbit rendezvous, but honestly, it is pretty trivial to do earth orbit rendezvous, AND lunar orbit rendezvous, which allows multiple falcon9/heavy launches for a single mission if required.

Edited May 9, 2015 by tater

[Bill Phil]

The first CSM (command/service module) flight was in 1966. The first lunar landing was in 1969, and without the Apollo 1 incident, it might have been at least a year sooner, possibly 18 months. Dragon is supposed to fly manned in what, 2017?

Grumman got the LEM contract in September 1962, the first launch was in '68.

2019 would be a bit of a stretch starting tomorrow morning, but it's not as daunting as people might think, since it really matters that we know it was done, and HOW it was done before, which makes it far easier than starting from nothing. At the time, NASA looked at earth orbit rendezvous, and lunar orbit rendezvous, but honestly, it is pretty trivial to do earth orbit rendezvous, AND lunar orbit rendezvous, which allows multiple falcon9/heavy launches for a single mission if required.

They were operating with a very hefty bugdet, though... SpaceX isn't.

[Fel]

The first CSM (command/service module) flight was in 1966. The first lunar landing was in 1969, and without the Apollo 1 incident, it might have been at least a year sooner, possibly 18 months. Dragon is supposed to fly manned in what, 2017?

Grumman got the LEM contract in September 1962, the first launch was in '68.

2019 would be a bit of a stretch starting tomorrow morning, but it's not as daunting as people might think, since it really matters that we know it was done, and HOW it was done before, which makes it far easier than starting from nothing. At the time, NASA looked at earth orbit rendezvous, and lunar orbit rendezvous, but honestly, it is pretty trivial to do earth orbit rendezvous, AND lunar orbit rendezvous, which allows multiple falcon9/heavy launches for a single mission if required.

You're assuming that "technology" is never lost. It's like maintaining the source of a not particularly well commented and beautifully linear program (none of that silly self-documenting object based nonsense); you know THAT the program works, but you certainly don't know HOW it works; and you're likely to remove sections you think are redundant that the original programmer added in because they weren't redundant.

Sure, we know that we got to the moon; we may even have documentation of the technology behind it, but we don't know WHY it is needed, or how it helped... what can be replaced with modern technology, what cannot.

It's very dangerous to start from the position that because someone else did something like what you want, you can just kiddy script your way into getting it to work the way you want it to work.

[jfull]

I don't think Space X should be working on missions rather than the means to get to space.

If they can make it cheap enough to launch payloads and people into space, NASA and other space agencies will provide plenty of missions.

[RobotsAndSpaceships]

According to a high-school pal of mine and I, yes they could.

You invalidated your opinion by putting this sentence in.

[Nuke]

i dont think any of their in service rockets are big enough to deliver the necessary payload. if they have to build new ones then the answer is no. maybe a multi launch type mission where you launch the service module (dragon), the lander (we dont have this), and the fuel on 3 separate rockets. but thats really not the real problem. they still need to have their ship man rated and i dont think 4 years is long enough to cut through that bureaucratic red tape. so im gonna have to stamp this with a big red no.

Edited May 15, 2015 by Nuke

[peadar1987]

Not by 2019, and probably not on their own. The most likely situation if they do go is that NASA/the ESA will contract them to help launch the necessary equipment into space, several decades hence, in which case it's debatable whether it's SpaceX who have landed on the moon, any more than it was Grumman, Boeing or North American who landed on the moon in 1969.

[Jonboy]

They'll need the Falcon Heavy and that won't be ready by 2019. Once they get the Falcon Heavy a lunar mission is certainly conceivable. For example, SpaceX could launch a cargo Dragon to the surface with rovers and supplies. Then a crewed Dragon lands next to that one for a stay that could last for several weeks.

But remember that they would have to build the Falcon Heavy, develop lunar spacesuits, modify the Dragon capsules for lunar landing and return, perform tests and dry runs to ensure that the procedures are safe and efficient. It might be technically feasible in 2019, but it won't be possible without years of R&D. And as someone else noted, SpaceX has no interest in going to the moon, so I doubt it will happen.

[Nibb31]

SpaceX doesn't plan missions or develop payloads. They are a launch provider or a service provider. The proper title for this thread should be "Could someone hire SpaceX to launch their lander on the Moon by 2019".

Since nobody is planning a Moon lander or an EDS to go on top of a Falcon Heavy, and since it would be pretty much impossible to build those things from scratch in less than 4 years, the answer is no.

[Findthepin1]

The U.S. Government built the Apollo missions in what, a decade? Less? They had to do it from scratch. All SpaceX has to do is copy their designs, not mentioning the manufacturing of the required parts would be easier because we have 3D printing and stuff now. Four years is a bit of a stretch, though. I voted Maybe.

[Borklund]

i dont think any of their in service rockets are big enough to deliver the necessary payload. if they have to build new ones then the answer is no. maybe a multi launch type mission where you launch the service module (dragon), the lander (we dont have this), and the fuel on 3 separate rockets. but thats really not the real problem. they still need to have their ship man rated and i dont think 4 years is long enough to cut through that bureaucratic red tape. so im gonna have to stamp this with a big red no.

Dragon V2 only weighs ca 4.2 tonnes, less without the heat shield and parachutes. You could easily fling a Dragon V2 to the moon or Mars or pretty much anywhere in the inner solar system using a Falcon Heavy. Dragon V2 is already in the process of being fully certified and manrated (Falcon 9/Heavy already are), and even then there are absolutely no regulations stopping SpaceX from sending their own people (non-NASA astronauts) into space.

They'll need the Falcon Heavy and that won't be ready by 2019. Once they get the Falcon Heavy a lunar mission is certainly conceivable. For example, SpaceX could launch a cargo Dragon to the surface with rovers and supplies. Then a crewed Dragon lands next to that one for a stay that could last for several weeks.

But remember that they would have to build the Falcon Heavy, develop lunar spacesuits, modify the Dragon capsules for lunar landing and return, perform tests and dry runs to ensure that the procedures are safe and efficient. It might be technically feasible in 2019, but it won't be possible without years of R&D. And as someone else noted, SpaceX has no interest in going to the moon, so I doubt it will happen.

Wrong. Falcon Heavy will be flying next year. Elon Musk has stated that Dragon V2 is already capable of landing on the moon; all it takes are minor modifications. SpaceX could definitely land something on the moon by 2019, just not people. A SpaceX Apollo 8 mission is more likely imo, but who knows what Elon wants to do (certainly not me).

SpaceX doesn't plan missions or develop payloads. They are a launch provider or a service provider. The proper title for this thread should be "Could someone hire SpaceX to launch their lander on the Moon by 2019".

Since nobody is planning a Moon lander or an EDS to go on top of a Falcon Heavy, and since it would be pretty much impossible to build those things from scratch in less than 4 years, the answer is no.

Wrong. SpaceX manufactures many types of payload; Dragon, Dragon V2 and now also satellites. They are a payload-to-destination provider as well as a launch provider. With current SpaceX architecture you don't need an EDS to get to the moon or Mars, merely improved and hardened avionics and electronics, maybe extra instruments. No need to build anything from scratch.

The U.S. Government built the Apollo missions in what, a decade? Less? They had to do it from scratch. All SpaceX has to do is copy their designs, not mentioning the manufacturing of the required parts would be easier because we have 3D printing and stuff now. Four years is a bit of a stretch, though. I voted Maybe.

Why would you bother replicating Apollo hardware when you can put a slightly modified Dragon V2 on the surface of the moon, launched atop a Falcon Heavy. The question is not one of feasibility, but of desire, and for anyone who isn't Elon Musk or at top of the SpaceX hierarchy, it's pure speculation.

[Jonboy]

Falcon Heavy will be flying next year.

If everything goes perfectly. Unfortunately, delays are almost inevitable when it comes to this kind of thing. Besides, the Falcon 9 still isn't human-rated after several years, and one would expect the Falcon Heavy to have to fly many times and jump through many hoops before being allowed to take humans to LEO, much less the moon.

SpaceX manufactures many types of payload; Dragon, Dragon V2 and now also satellites. They are a payload-to-destination provider as well as a launch provider.

First off, Dragon V2 hasn't even flown yet. Second, SpaceX has not manufactured a satellite for a customer. The cargo Dragon delivers and returns a payload to the ISS, and they are payed to do this by NASA. They launch satellites for a variety of organizations, and they are payed to do this.

For all of Elon's talk of going to Mars, SpaceX doesn't go anywhere yet unless someone is paying them to.

Edited May 17, 2015 by Jonboy