are all rescued kerbals scientists?

[Gooru]

I´ve rescued a lot of kerbals now and all of them were scientists.

are all rescued kerbals scientists?

Edited November 13, 2015 by Gooru

[ForScience6686]

Nope, my first two rescues are engineers. Sorry about the luck.

[Guest]

Nope, they're random.

[MaxwellsDemon]

Random. I've gotten a fairly even sample of professions; you may just be getting "lucky." (On the other hand, there was an issue where a mod (Asteroid Day) was making them all female, but that was fixed in the Asteroid Day release for 1.0.5.)

[Gooru]

I´ve got 7 scientists by now.

If it is completly random and evenly distributed the chance to get this is 0.0457%

Edited November 14, 2015 by Gooru

[MaxwellsDemon]

Well, there are two possibilities: 1) you're on the far end of a normal curve, or 2) a mod is messing something up. Are you running any, or are you running "vanilla"?

[juanml82]

I'm having a lot of pilots, although some scientists and engineers pop up here and there, so maybe some mod conflicts with that?

[Gooru]

Well, there are two possibilities: 1) you're on the far end of a normal curve, or 2) a mod is messing something up. Are you running any, or are you running "vanilla"?

Here is my modlist:

ModuleTankLock

ScienceAlert

Mechjeb (currently the testversion for 1.0.5)

KER

Kerbal Alarmclock

NavHud

Transfer Window Planer

Docking Port Alignemnt Indicator

Portrait Stats

surface lights

stockalike station parts

Texture replacer

Mechjeb and Engineer for all parts

RCS Build Aid

[ForScience6686]

I´ve got 7 scientists by now.

If it is completly random and evenly distributed the chance to get this is 0.0457%

I see the chance at 50%. You only have two outcomes, a scientist or not a scientist in this case.

[Gooru]

I see the chance at 50%. You only have two outcomes, a scientist or not a scientist in this case.

a scientist is one of three possible outcomes, so the chance to get one scientist out of one is 1/3 = 33,3%.

The chance to get 7 scientists out of 7 is

(1/3)^7

= (1/3)*(1/3)*(1/3)*(1/3)*(1/3)*(1/3)*(1/3)

= 1/(3*3*3*3*3*3*3)

= 1/2187

= 0,000457

= 0,0457%

[numerobis]

There are currently 1644 users online. 247 members and 1397 guests

The probability that no member currently active on the forum hits an event with a 5% chance is (1-.95)^247, i.e. 3 in a million.

[ForScience6686]

Well i would agree, but real life does not. If there is only two outcomes, a scientist or not, than you have a 50% chance. My numbers are much more realistic since it did occur. But as you show the probability is low, still if its not a scientists it still fits my math. Most often you will only have two outcomes, a yes or no, that leaves a 50% chance. The probability will reflect otherwise.

Disclaimer: this is not widely accepted math :-p.

[mabarry3]

Well i would agree, but real life does not. If there is only two outcomes, a scientist or not, than you have a 50% chance. My numbers are much more realistic since it did occur. But as you show the probability is low, still if its not a scientists it still fits my math. Most often you will only have two outcomes, a yes or no, that leaves a 50% chance. The probability will reflect otherwise.

Disclaimer: this is not widely accepted math :-p.

There are three total possible outcomes though... If I have a single $20 bill, and eleven other bills in my wallet, that doesn't mean I have a 50% chance to pull out the $20 bill because "it's either a $20, or it's not". There are more than two outcomes for every rescue in this scenario - more than one of which are "not a scientist".

While each event is taken individually and not as a collective whole in terms of RNG probability (by which I mean, if you get 20 scientists in a row, you still maintain a 1/3 chance to get a scientist on your next go, and the previous 20 have no effect on the probability of anything that comes after them), there is still a probability of less than 0.5 for each event. Just because each event is taken individually, does not mean that each event also has a 0.5 probability because it is either a scientist, or it's not.

[Geschosskopf]

While each event is taken individually and not as a collective whole in terms of RNG probability (by which I mean, if you get 20 scientists in a row, you still maintain a 1/3 chance to get a scientist on your next go, and the previous 20 have no effect on the probability of anything that comes after them), there is still a probability of less than 0.5 for each event. Just because each event is taken individually, does not mean that each event also has a 0.5 probability because it is either a scientist, or it's not.

I just rescued 3 in 1 flight, 2 guys and 1 gal, all 3 pilots. Somewhat disappointing as pilots are essentially worthless but that's what happens with the luck of the draw.

[ForScience6686]

There are three total possible outcomes though... If I have a single $20 bill, and eleven other bills in my wallet, that doesn't mean I have a 50% chance to pull out the $20 bill because "it's either a $20, or it's not". There are more than two outcomes for every rescue in this scenario - more than one of which are "not a scientist".

While each event is taken individually and not as a collective whole in terms of RNG probability (by which I mean, if you get 20 scientists in a row, you still maintain a 1/3 chance to get a scientist on your next go, and the previous 20 have no effect on the probability of anything that comes after them), there is still a probability of less than 0.5 for each event. Just because each event is taken individually, does not mean that each event also has a 0.5 probability because it is either a scientist, or it's not.

First, you missed the disclaimer.

Second, yes it is a 50% chance on the 20. As that is all you are questioning, the other denominations are not in question. Only whether or not you pull a 20, that leaves two outcomes. It's all semantics and that's what I'm playing on here. If you ask me if it will rain today, you'll get the same response, as only one item is at question. Now the probability will most likely differ.

[Snark]

I just rescued 3 in 1 flight, 2 guys and 1 gal, all 3 pilots. Somewhat disappointing as pilots are essentially worthless but that's what happens with the luck of the draw.

By the way-- you may want to hang on to those pilots. Squad has done some tweaking of "station" contracts, and those pilots could now be worth cold hard cash:

Don't fire them. Treat them to a one-way ticket to deep space! Finally, a useful place to put them.

[tseitsei]

First, you missed the disclaimer.

Second, yes it is a 50% chance on the 20. As that is all you are questioning, the other denominations are not in question. Only whether or not you pull a 20, that leaves two outcomes. It's all semantics and that's what I'm playing on here. If you ask me if it will rain today, you'll get the same response, as only one item is at question. Now the probability will most likely differ.

Lol...

It's certainly "not widely accepted maths". It's just plain wrong maths...

So in your "real world" you have 50% chance at winning a grand prize in lottery? Either you win ir you dont.

If that is the case I wanna play a game with you:

1) each week we play one single ticket of lottery

2) if it wins the grand prize I'll give you 1000e

3) if it doesnt you will give me 100e

By your logic this will be very profitable for you since 50% of the time you lose 100e but the other 50% you gain 1000e...

But as I am sure you can see from this example, that's not how real world or real math works...

[Snark]

a scientist is one of three possible outcomes, so the chance to get one scientist out of one is 1/3 = 33,3%.

The chance to get 7 scientists out of 7 is

(1/3)^7

= (1/3)*(1/3)*(1/3)*(1/3)*(1/3)*(1/3)*(1/3)

= 1/(3*3*3*3*3*3*3)

= 1/2187

= 0,000457

= 0,0457%

Except that what's really bugging you (and making you doubt the randomness) is not that you got seven scientists in a row, but seven of the same thing in a row. So that would be (1/3)^6. So that's a chance of 1 in 729, not 2187. Still fairly low-probability, but it'll happen from time to time, guess you're just the lucky winner.

Random sequences do turn out non-random-looking patterns from time to time.

By the way, general comment for the folks on this thread: I seem to recall that one of the things Squad did for 1.0.5 is that now kerbals can actually have their profession specified by a field in the save file. That is, it used to be purely based on a pseudo-random hash of the kerbal name, but now it'll only do that if the kerbal doesn't have an explicitly specified profession. So you can now hand-edit your save file to make a kerbal have whatever profession you like, if you are so inclined.

Edited November 15, 2015 by Snark

[Geschosskopf]

(re: pilots) Don't fire them. Treat them to a one-way ticket to deep space! Finally, a useful place to put them.

Ah, prison stations . Love it. Are there also "gated community retirement homes" for scientists after you finish the tech tree?

But as Snark mentions, it's now possible to "retrain" Kerbals as well, by changing their class. So in theory you could put any Kerbals in the station, edit them to be pilots, complete the contract, then edit them back to being engineers .

[Gooru]

Well i would agree, but real life does not. If there is only two outcomes, a scientist or not, than you have a 50% chance. My numbers are much more realistic since it did occur. But as you show the probability is low, still if its not a scientists it still fits my math. Most often you will only have two outcomes, a yes or no, that leaves a 50% chance. The probability will reflect otherwise.

Disclaimer: this is not widely accepted math :-p.

So lets play the lotery.

There are just two outcomes: win the million or don´t win the million.

So i´ve got a 50% chance to win a million and just have to pay one $ for it.

Thats great.

By the way: Do you play poker? I´d love to have a few hands with you!

[ForScience6686]

First, you don't understand the disclaimer.

Second, you both are wrong. Change your statement and you're correct. Will I win the lottery? Only two outcomes right? You are thinking way to much into this. Is it not the same as what will I get when I flip a coin. Only two outcomes.

[Gooru]

Hmm... Ok, let´s try to understand your math.

You say i´ve got a 50% chance to get a scientist. (1 out of 2 outcomes - a scientist or not a scientist)

So my chance to get a pilot would also be 50%, right? (1 out of 2 outcomes - a pilot or not a pilot)

And my chance to get a engineer would be another 50%. (1 out of 2 outcomes - a engineer or not a engineer)

What would be the chance to get an pilot or an scientist?

[ForScience6686]

Ok this went much farther than I intended but I'll keep playing along. Now you're getting the message, it's all in how you state the question. In this case 66%, as you now have brought in a third element of it not being either of those.

I have argued this logic with an instructor before and did end up receiving credit on the related question . If it is not stated in the question, than it can only be assumed, which is not an exact math.

Now for your lottery example, why do so many people play the lottery knowing the probability of winning is against them? My reasoning is they only see the two outcomes, hence the 50% chance. Or, should we say that all these people are ridiculously stupid going against those odds? I myself am not a gambling man awi know the probability of winning is low even with only two outcomes.

[Yourself]

Ok this went much farther than I intended but I'll keep playing along. Now you're getting the message, it's all in how you state the question. In this case 66%, as you now have brought in a third element of it not being either of those.

I have argued this logic with an instructor before and did end up receiving credit on the related question . If it is not stated in the question, than it can only be assumed, which is not an exact math.

Now for your lottery example, why do so many people play the lottery knowing the probability of winning is against them? My reasoning is they only see the two outcomes, hence the 50% chance. Or, should we say that all these people are ridiculously stupid going against those odds? I myself am not a gambling man awi know the probability of winning is low even with only two outcomes.

So you're saying it's impossible to have a probability distribution that isn't uniform? What is your reasoning for that?

Like, sure, I see you say there are two outcomes, so they must have equal probability, but I haven't seen you explain why. Like why couldn't I have 2 outcomes where the probability of one occurring is 25% and the probability of it not occurring is 75%. Or 1% and 99%? Don't the laws of probability only require that all probabilities add up to 100%? What law requires all probabilities to be equal?

[GoSlash27]

ForScience6686,

Going by your logic, there are 2 possibilities: Getting 7 scientists in a row or not getting 7 scientists in a row. Since it's 50/50, there's no reason that this would be odd and therefore no reason for you to wonder if all rescued kerbals are scientists. But you did find it odd or else you wouldn't have asked. You have disproven your own argument.

Your math is flat- out wrong and you would be wise to listen to these folks. They know more about this than you do.

Best,

-Slashy