Fermi paradox - Alex Semenov's classification

[Polnoch]

What do you think about Fermi paradox? 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox

Here I want to be translator from Russian to English Alex Semenov's  research paper about Fermi paradox. Here is original text: http://alex-semenov.livejournal.com/10688.html (warning! terrible Russian letters)

(sorry for my bad English)

 

 

epigraph:

        When partners can't agree
                    Their dealings come to naught
               And trouble is their labor's only fruit.
____________

Once Crawfish, Swan and Pike
Set out to pull a loaded cart,
And all together settled in the traces;
They pulled with all their might, but still the cart refused to budge!
The load it seemed was not too much for them:
           Yet Crawfish scrambled backwards,
Swan strained up skywards, Pike pulled toward the sea.
Who's guilty here and who is right is
                                                   not for us to say-
But anyway the cart's still there today.

Krylov. Author of translation unknown. 

 

 

Fermi Paradox

Crawfish, Swan and Pike

Or horoscope for members to next

SETI conferencion

 

So, Fermi Paradox, or Paradox of silent Universe. If alien's intelligence exist not only here, and exist on planets nearly other suns, why we can't see they? Probably, at first, this paradox discovered by Enrico Fermi in 1950 in lunch-time with his colleges, when they watched newspaper's caricature to the Aliens. It starts from jokes. However, it led to formulation this paradox. It's normal for physics - starts from joke, and end with research!

Really, where is they?

Remarkably, but have a time to thinking, you understand: each person, who understand this bug of world outlook, forced to patch it by one of three main ways. And your choice depend of what you prefer to sacrifice (to exclude, if in case use sacrifice in English to much expressively - Polnoch) to fix your  world outlook.

Three "facts" are connected in loop-paradox, like a Penrose triangle

 

 

• Fact1. The life is born all over the place and in all time, and achieve a highly developed mind's stage. (Here P₁ = 1, true)
• Fact2. All of minds produce the Impact Wave of Penetration, and fill Galaxy, and in next step, Universe. (here P₂ = 1)
• Fact3. The Galaxy, Sol System, and Universe around us empty. Nothing around! (Here P₃ = 1) 

P₁ * P₂ * P₃ = 1*1*1 = 1

But it is impossible! As we see, it contradict each other! And we need to get zero, false, not logical true!

However, not each of three "facts" not a real fact, and not a established truth. It just conclusions, like a truth, and we can drop each of "facts".

If you drop first "fact", we called you Swan, and our  equation is:  P1*P2*P3=0*1*1 = 0

If you drop second "fact", we called you Pike,  and our equation is: P1*P2*P3=1*0*1 = 0

If you drop third "fact", we called you Crawfish,  and our equation is: P1*P2*P3=1*1*0 = 0

Other choices doesn't exist (in original text - Polnoch. Probably he's right) Of course, here can be intermediate options, but, in fact, all manifold of rational options reducing to this 3 corner options, because you can get it by minimum stress, sacrifice only one "fact".

Let's go to expand about all of options.

Let's start from me (from author - Polnoch). I'm typical specimen of this "animals":

 

SWAN

(here author write not-censored joke - Polnoch) I prefer to solve Fermi paradox by Swan choice. Of course, I can't believe about our Universe hasn't any aliens(fact3), but I must to agreed with it. for me, probability of this very low. May be, P₃ =0.99...9 ~ 1 . Next, idea about Wave of mind's penetration for me obviously. We'll start the Wave, or die out. No other choices for humanity. And, this  conclusions must works for aliens, but were is it? I don't want to discuss here about necessity of The Wave, but i want to convince you about I'm believe in it(author - Polnoch)! If any of alien mind appear in our Galaxy before us, then the Wave must cover us! To millions years before! 

Observe the Fermi Paradox, the Swan must to sacrifice fact of aliens exist. The Swan must to suppose about the life is really rare in Galaxy. And the Mind is unique. May be we are alone in Galaxy, at least, first intelligent. If it's required, I suppose our unique state in Universe.  By this reasons I interesting ideas of Create Filter. The density of Mind  in our Universe must be very low, because the Wave don't cover us. May be, aliens exist at least 100000 light years or more...

The Swan, to save world outlook, can drop "fact" of aliens worlds exist. The subjective proximity of "dead Universe" is   P₁ = 0.00...01 ~ 0 . In this case solution of Fermi Paradox is:

 

P₁*P₂*P₃= 0.00...01*0.99...9*0.99...9 ~ 0*1*1 ~ 0

 

PIKE

On the one hand, the pike, like a swan, can drop a "fact" of Alien's marcs in Sol system, and in Galaxy too(I think, Alex Semenov mean in interstallar space here - Polnoch)  For the pike P₃~1. But by second hand, the pike can't drop idea about aliens Worlds. for it P₁ ~ 1. The pike want to sacrifice "fact" 2. In any case Pike's answers about excluding interstellar travelling. May be one or two interstellar flights per each civilization history, or no one! The Wave of Mind is idiot idea, and doesn't exist!

At first, interstellar flight is very hard and too much expansive! For high-tech civilizations too! At second, if it's possible, why high tech civilization to create the Wave?  It's extensionally growth! It doesn't need a empty big spaces and resources! May be we trying to think about High Tech Mind by our history? May be they are prefer high tech growth? And sitting in one place during billions of years?

For the Pike P₂~ 0

And Fermi paradox solution:

 

P₁*P₂*P₃ ~ 1*0*1 ~ 0

 

I have opinion, about all of SETI-interesting persons are pikes! In this cases, high tech civilizations must to have chat with other civilizations to extend knowledge. All civilizations requires a help!  And, we need to find similar signals, to connect to the Greate Ring (here Alex means "The greate ring" Novell of Inan Efremov- Polnoch)  

In this case, if anybody can't visit us, and anybody can't invade us, we can start METI transmitions. The World is very large, and brutal to the Mind, and radio(laser - Polnoch) communications is just only one way to get invaluable information. Fantastic - we can receive and transmit more-thousand's years information! In this case, at once, we can visit another civilization by digital copy of our brain. (Polnoch - I think, Pikes doesn't exclude dangerous of METI)

 

 

CRAWFISH

On the one hand, The Crawfish, like pike, can't drop a "fact" of existing Alien's worlds, P₁~ 1. On the second hand, Crawfish dislike to be at home during billions of years, and like Swan, it wants to be the hitchhiker to the whole Galaxy! It permit s interstellar flights, like Swan, but millions and millions light years with non-mind planets with primitive life (planets with mold in original text - polnoch) the Crawfish dislike! And, observing the Fermi Paradox, the Crawfish has a conclusion about the Wave of Mind covered us to many years before! And we locate in cultural place, other civilisation(s) alive in around place, including our Sol system.  P3 ~ 0:

P₁*P₂*P₃ ~ 1*1*0 ~ 0

 

But why we can't observe Aliens? Here the crawfish must to back: they are here, but don't want to tell us! They are invisible! Asking crawfish, we can get information, about he believe to the UFO, Ancient astronaut hypothesis, and in some of  pseudoscience/pseudophysics ideas (it's Alex Semenov! I know some of Crawfishs with science-like world view! Polnoch). however, advanced crawfish believe to the E. Braswell probe. Theory about museum-preserve for the humanity(about aliens discover us, and safeguard us like museum, lab, zoo) better to the crawfish then died universe of Swan. Listen to yourself. What better for you? "Zoo" or "Died universe"? What is your choice? If zoo, you are Crawfish. Crawfish, usually stupid(in original text here is Russian idiom), Crawfish believe - at once we can accepted in family of high-tech civilizations, if we can't be more clever, more friendly, more humanity... Crawfish's opinion of the SETI problem (in text. Typo? I think, Alex mean Fermi's problem - Polnoch) look like a view of God believer.

====

Below locate conclusion, but I don't translate it because I get tired. You can skip it (no new ideas) or to use google translate.

Sorry for errors. Difficult to translate a large tech text. It's my first experience. Here must be mistakes.

Edited April 6, 2016 by Polnoch

[fredinno]

1 hour ago, Polnoch said:

What do you think about Fermi paradox? 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fermi_paradox

Here I want to be translator from Russian to English Alex Semenov's  research paper about Fermi paradox. Here is original text: http://alex-semenov.livejournal.com/10688.html (warning! terrible Russian letters)

(sorry for my bad English)

 

 

epigraph:

        When partners can't agree
                    Their dealings come to naught
               And trouble is their labor's only fruit.
____________

Once Crawfish, Swan and Pike
Set out to pull a loaded cart,
And all together settled in the traces;
They pulled with all their might, but still the cart refused to budge!
The load it seemed was not too much for them:
           Yet Crawfish scrambled backwards,
Swan strained up skywards, Pike pulled toward the sea.
Who's guilty here and who is right is
                                                   not for us to say-
But anyway the cart's still there today.

Krylov. Author of translation unknown. 

 

 

Fermi Paradox

Crawfish, Swan and Pike

Or horoscope for members to next

SETI conferencion

 

So, Fermi Paradox, or Paradox of silent Universe. If alien's intelligence exist not only here, and exist on planets nearly other suns, why we can't see they? Probably, at first, this paradox discovered by Enrico Fermi in 1950 in lunch-time with his colleges, when they watched newspaper's caricature to the Aliens. It starts from jokes. However, it led to formulation this paradox. It's normal for physics - starts from joke, and end with research!

Really, where is they?

Remarkably, but have a time to thinking, you understand: each person, who understand this bug of world outlook, forced to patch it by one of three main ways. And your choice depend of what you prefer to sacrifice (to exclude, if in case use sacrifice in English to much expressively - Polnoch) to fix your  world outlook.

Three "facts" are connected in loop-paradox, like a Penrose triangle

 

 

• Fact1. The life is born all over the place and in all time, and achieve a highly developed mind's stage. (Here P₁ = 1, true)
• Fact2. All of minds produce the Impact Wave of Penetration, and fill Galaxy, and in next step, Universe. (here P₂ = 1)
• Fact3. The Galaxy, Sol System, and Universe around us empty. Nothing around! (Here P₃ = 1) 

P₁ * P₂ * P₃ = 1*1*1 = 1

But it is impossible! As we see, it contradict each other! And we need to get zero, false, not logical true!

However, not each of three "facts" not a real fact, and not a established truth. It just conclusions, like a truth, and we can drop each of "facts".

If you drop first "fact", we called you Swan, and our  equation is:  P1*P2*P3=0*1*1 = 0

If you drop second "fact", we called you Pike,  and our equation is: P1*P2*P3=1*0*1 = 0

If you drop third "fact", we called you Crawfish,  and our equation is: P1*P2*P3=1*1*0 = 0

Other choices doesn't exist (in original text - Polnoch. Probably he's right) Of course, here can be intermediate options, but, in fact, all manifold of rational options reducing to this 3 corner options, because you can get it by minimum stress, sacrifice only one "fact".

Let's go to expand about all of options.

Let's start from me (from author - Polnoch). I'm typical specimen of this "animals":

 

SWAN

(here author write not-censored joke - Polnoch) I prefer to solve Fermi paradox by Swan choice. Of course, I can't believe about our Universe hasn't any aliens(fact3), but I must to agreed with it. for me, probability of this very low. May be, P₃ =0.99...9 ~ 1 . Next, idea about Wave of mind's penetration for me obviously. We'll start the Wave, or die out. No other choices for humanity. And, this  conclusions must works for aliens, but were is it? I don't want to discuss here about necessity of The Wave, but i want to convince you about I'm believe in it(author - Polnoch)! If any of alien mind appear in our Galaxy before us, then the Wave must cover us! To millions years before! 

Observe the Fermi Paradox, the Swan must to sacrifice fact of aliens exist. The Swan must to suppose about the life is really rare in Galaxy. And the Mind is unique. May be we are alone in Galaxy, at least, first intelligent. If it's required, I suppose our unique state in Universe.  By this reasons I interesting ideas of Create Filter. The density of Mind  in our Universe must be very low, because the Wave don't cover us. May be, aliens exist at least 100000 light years or more...

The Swan, to save world outlook, can drop "fact" of aliens worlds exist. The subjective proximity of "dead Universe" is   P₁ = 0.00...01 ~ 0 . In this case solution of Fermi Paradox is:

 

P₁*P₂*P₃= 0.00...01*0.99...9*0.99...9 ~ 0*1*1 ~ 0

 

PIKE

On the one hand, the pike, like a swan, can drop a "fact" of Alien's marcs in Sol system, and in Galaxy too(I think, Alex Semenov mean in interstallar space here - Polnoch)  For the pike P₃~1. But by second hand, the pike can't drop idea about aliens Worlds. for it P₁ ~ 1. The pike want to sacrifice "fact" 2. In any case Pike's answers about excluding interstellar travelling. May be one or two interstellar flights per each civilization history, or no one! The Wave of Mind is idiot idea, and doesn't exist!

At first, interstellar flight is very hard and too much expansive! For high-tech civilizations too! At second, if it's possible, why high tech civilization to create the Wave?  It's extensionally growth! It doesn't need a empty big spaces and resources! May be we trying to think about High Tech Mind by our history? May be they are prefer high tech growth? And sitting in one place during billions of years?

For the Pike P₂~ 0

And Fermi paradox solution:

 

P₁*P₂*P₃ ~ 1*0*1 ~ 0

 

I have opinion, about all of SETI-interesting persons are pikes! In this cases, high tech civilizations must to have chat with other civilizations to extend knowledge. All civilizations requires a help!  And, we need to find similar signals, to connect to the Greate Ring (here Alex means "The greate ring" Novell of Inan Efremov- Polnoch)  

In this case, if anybody can't visit us, and anybody can't invade us, we can start METI transmitions. The World is very large, and brutal to the Mind, and radio(laser - Polnoch) communications is just only one way to get invaluable information. Fantastic - we can receive and transmit more-thousand's years information! In this case, at once, we can visit another civilization by digital copy of our brain. (Polnoch - I think, Pikes doesn't exclude dangerous of METI)

 

 

CRAWFISH

On the one hand, The Crawfish, like pike, can't drop a "fact" of existing Alien's worlds, P₁~ 1. On the second hand, Crawfish dislike to be at home during billions of years, and like Swan, it wants to be the hitchhiker to the whole Galaxy! It permit s interstellar flights, like Swan, but millions and millions light years with non-mind planets with primitive life (planets with mold in original text - polnoch) the Crawfish dislike! And, observing the Fermi Paradox, the Crawfish has a conclusion about the Wave of Mind covered us to many years before! And we locate in cultural place, other civilisation(s) alive in around place, including our Sol system.  P3 ~ 0:

P₁*P₂*P₃ ~ 1*1*0 ~ 0

 

But why we can't observe Aliens? Here the crawfish must to back: they are here, but don't want to tell us! They are invisible! Asking crawfish, we can get information, about he believe to the UFO, Ancient astronaut hypothesis, and in some of  pseudoscience/pseudophysics ideas (it's Alex Semenov! I know some of Crawfishs with science-like world view!). however, advanced crawfish believe to the E. Braswell probe. Theory about museum-preserve for the humanity(about aliens discover us, and safeguard us like museum, lab, zoo) better to the crawfish then died universe of Swan. Listen to yourself. What better for you? "Zoo" or "Died universe"? What is your choice? If zoo, you are Crawfish. Crawfish, usually stupid(in original text here is Russian idiom), Crawfish believe - at once we can accepted in family of high-tech civilizations, if we can't be more clever, more friendly, more humanity... Crawfish's opinion of the SETI problem (in text. Typo? I think, Alex mean Fermi's problem - Polnoch) look like a view of God believer.

====

Below locate conclusion, but I don't translate it because I get tired. You can skip it (no new ideas) or to use google translate.

Sorry for errors. Difficult to translate a large tech text. It's my first experience. Here must be mistakes.

I'm a subscriber to the Rare Earth Hypothesishttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare_Earth_hypothesis

Mainly since I study planets, and how to make them habitable

[magnemoe]

3 hours ago, fredinno said:

I'm a subscriber to the Rare Earth Hypothesishttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare_Earth_hypothesis

Mainly since I study planets, and how to make them habitable

Well that part should be possible to answer in an decade or two. Right now its hard to detect earth sized planets around other stars so we have only found few even it they should be at least be more common than the Uranus sized one we found lots of. 

Most of the rare earth requirements are too strict as I see it, yes you probably need plate tectonic and you have to be in the Goldilocks zone, note that the goldilock zone itself is based on earth atmosphere, if you have 4 bar and more water and co2 it would work farter out. 

Still an longer distance between planets with life will make interstellar colonization harder. Far worse if you have to go 50 lightyear rather than 5. 

[Spaceception]

Just now, fredinno said:

Mainly since I study planets, and how to make them habitable

Wait seriously!? Do you work with Hubble? Kepler? Will you be working with JWST? Or Tess?

 

With regards to the topic, I personally like the Zoo Hypothesis best, and that we're a protected species until we become a type 1 civilization or something like that

[Scotius]

Thirty years ago we knew only about our own solar system. Some scientists even hypothesised, that planetary systems might be very rare and far between. Then we've built better telescopes and computers - and today we discovered hundreds of planets after scanning only a tiny sliver of the sky. Just give it time - we'll find them.

[Polnoch]

2 minutes ago, Scotius said:

Just give it time - we'll find them.

Pike?

[Bill Phil]

5 hours ago, magnemoe said:

Well that part should be possible to answer in an decade or two. Right now its hard to detect earth sized planets around other stars so we have only found few even it they should be at least be more common than the Uranus sized one we found lots of. 

Most of the rare earth requirements are too strict as I see it, yes you probably need plate tectonic and you have to be in the Goldilocks zone, note that the goldilock zone itself is based on earth atmosphere, if you have 4 bar and more water and co2 it would work farter out. 

Still an longer distance between planets with life will make interstellar colonization harder. Far worse if you have to go 50 lightyear rather than 5. 

Unless you abandon planets altogether. Or terraform.

[Polnoch]

Moderators, is is possible to add poll in this topic?

Poll title:

Who are you in this classification? 

Options:

• Swan
• Pike
• Crawfish
• Author and translator are wrong! I found new option and tell about it in message!

[Bill Phil]

9 hours ago, fredinno said:

I'm a subscriber to the Rare Earth Hypothesishttps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rare_Earth_hypothesis

Mainly since I study planets, and how to make them habitable

That hypothesis is flawed. It's based on Earth and its life. But there's also the possibility thatthe goldilocks Zone doesn't even apply.

[Polnoch]

Probably Alex Semenov created fine classification of us, and this classification completeness (in math view). matrix hypothesis (about our Universe is Simulation) is Crawfish here...

[Spaceception]

Just now, Polnoch said:

Moderators, is is possible to add poll in this topic?

Poll title:

Who are you in this classification? 

Options:

• Swan
• Pike
• Crawfish
• Author and translator are wrong! I found new option and tell about it in message!

Edit the very first post here (Yours) And next to "Content" is "Polls". Click on that, and you can make a poll

Here's a pic to show you where it is, (Look above the title of the post) and scroll down until you see a picture that looks like it came from these forums (There's only 1);

http://spaceception20.imgur.com/all#2

 

[Polnoch]

Before this moment, I seen more content on English about Fermi paradox, for example this fine movie:

 

 

But I never seen in any site strict interpretation, using math logic about this Paradox. 

I want to ask native English speakers: "Crawfish, Swan and Pike" is classic Russian literature, and for Russians it is very recognizable brand/image. May be outside Russian environment this options of classification sounds not fine?

I prefer to use this classification because I most respect this person (Alex Semenov) - he also provides to humanity fine mathematics model of laser sail to interstellar travailing. At first, he translate to Russian scientific papers of Robert Forward's laser sail, but next he created math model about destruction sail alluminum by hydrogen ions (and he calculate, laser sail can exist!)

 

10 minutes ago, Spaceception said:

Edit the very first post here (Yours) And next to "Content" is "Polls". Click on that, and you can make a poll

Here's a pic to show you where it is, (Look above the title of the post) and scroll down until you see a picture that looks like it came from these forums (There's only 1);

http://spaceception20.imgur.com/all#2

 

 

Thank you, you're right

Edited April 6, 2016 by Polnoch

[HebaruSan]

27 minutes ago, Polnoch said:

I want to ask native English speakers: "Crawfish, Swan and Pike" is classic Russian literature, and for Russians it is very recognizable brand/image. May be outside Russian environment this options of classification sounds not fine?

Can you sum up what these animals have to do with the Fermi paradox? Why would they be associated with one or another perspective on the paradox? To this native English speaker it just sounds like a non sequitur. What is the correct answer to the origin of the universe: bicycle, newspaper, or dog?

[Polnoch]

 

Quote

Can you sum up what these animals have to do with the Fermi paradox? Why would they be associated with one or another perspective on the paradox? To this native English speaker it just sounds like a non sequitur. What is the correct answer to the origin of the universe: bicycle, newspaper, or dog?

 

And could you please give advice? What to do in this case? Using another words, may be, not respected to author of this Classification and math model...

I'll try to explain:

Swan believe about humanity will create  the Wave of Mind, and it is very graceful bird. The Swan will fly in Galaxy, fly as proud Wave of Mind, and give in all of Galaxy's corners the Mind. 

Pike like to live inside a deep pond. And you can't see it. Civilizations sit inside sol systems like Pike

Crawfish - This animal like to move back in difficult cases. Look like UFO-lovers

Is it OK?

But of course, it based on classic literature. 

Edited April 6, 2016 by Polnoch

[magnemoe]

1 hour ago, Bill Phil said:

Unless you abandon planets altogether. Or terraform.

Yes but that would make interstellar colonization way harder and less interesting. 
Had it been life on Mars and Venus like they belive 80 years ago we would had manned missions to both places today.
lots of room in the original solar system, yes the aliens might do this to generate an backup or for glory but unlikely they will continue to spread out. 
An manned expedition is more plausible, then they leave. 

[magnemoe]

21 minutes ago, HebaruSan said:

Can you sum up what these animals have to do with the Fermi paradox? Why would they be associated with one or another perspective on the paradox? To this native English speaker it just sounds like a non sequitur. What is the correct answer to the origin of the universe: bicycle, newspaper, or dog?

As I see it Swan is no alien species, Pike interstellar travel is impossible, Crawfish: the aliens do not want to contact us. 
I go for an compromise: Crawfish is less likely good points, an alien who has multiple interstellar colonies is unlikely to teraform and colonize an rare planet with advanced life, better to study, intelligent life is even more interesting. 
Pike: Interstellar travel is hard and expensive most don't bother, aliens who already has interstellar colonies is even less interested as you have done it. 
As you need to be an level 1 civilization to launch an starship an colony will need an long time to grow before repeating this. 
Swan: even if life is common advanced life might be rare, i guess intelligent life is much rarer, advanced civilizations even more so. 
After we find inteligent life 50 lightyear away and they tries to eat the probe we give up

 

[tater]

The galactic crossing time for a probe like New Horizons is on the order of a billion years. Light is just 100,000 years.

We've not been looking terribly long, and any sufficiently powerful signal from far away would necessarily be directional, which limits any civilization's ability to broadcast often to the same parts of the sky... so even if they were all trying, we'd have to be looking in their direction during the short timeframe when they were broadcasting in our direction. How long would you dwell on a given area if broadcasting, and what solid angle would you be broadcasting into? 

Communications in this way is non-trivial.

[Nibb31]

What if FTL simply isn't possible, which rules out interstellar travel by making it so impractical that it is not worth the effort.

Another option is the Dark Forest hypothesis: There is a 50/50 chance that another species is hostile and wants to wipe you out, so it's best to keep quiet.

Or there might be a predator species out there that considers any other species a threat and destroys them preemptively just in case. They might even have some form of time travel, so they can go back and destroy others before they are even capable of making contact.

 

[PB666]

49 minutes ago, tater said:

The galactic crossing time for a probe like New Horizons is on the order of a billion years. Light is just 100,000 years.

We've not been looking terribly long, and any sufficiently powerful signal from far away would necessarily be directional, which limits any civilization's ability to broadcast often to the same parts of the sky... so even if they were all trying, we'd have to be looking in their direction during the short timeframe when they were broadcasting in our direction. How long would you dwell on a given area if broadcasting, and what solid angle would you be broadcasting into? 

Communications in this way is non-trivial.

New horizons does not have enough forward momentum to cross the galaxy, it would pretty much stay in a orbit relatively close to the sun for 100s of millions of years. If you consider it takes 250,000,000 years for the sun to make a rotation and its current position is 27.200 klight years from the center, that is 2.7x10^20 meters. The angular velocity is 8.42883E-17 radians per second and at this radius an object that has escaped the Suns orbit would have to accelerate on the direction of the New Outer arm of 22,000 m/s to fall into and out of the center of the galaxy. The new horizons will stand to loose another 1000 m/s before leaving our solar system with a residual velocity around 13,000 m/s, but horizons is heading in the direction of the galactic center, which is -radial, which means it has created a eccentric orbit that will travel toward the center, stop and then travel outward with basically the same period as the sun, which means it will oscillate around the sun as it travels around the galaxy (galactic physics aside).   

[HebaruSan]

25 minutes ago, Nibb31 said:

What if FTL simply isn't possible, which rules out interstellar travel by making it so impractical that it is not worth the effort.

I thought we were supposed to be choosing weird animals. I nominate the platypus for this one.

25 minutes ago, Nibb31 said:

Another option is the Dark Forest hypothesis: There is a 50/50 chance that another species is hostile and wants to wipe you out, so it's best to keep quiet.

Chameleon.

25 minutes ago, Nibb31 said:

Or there might be a predator species out there that considers any other species a threat and destroys them preemptively just in case. They might even have some form of time travel, so they can go back and destroy others before they are even capable of making contact.

Pterodactyl.

[fredinno]

3 hours ago, Spaceception said:

Wait seriously!? Do you work with Hubble? Kepler? Will you be working with JWST? Or Tess?

 

With regards to the topic, I personally like the Zoo Hypothesis best, and that we're a protected species until we become a type 1 civilization or something like that

That was sarcasm  

Sorry. I forgot it wasn't April Fools Day anymore.

I do a lot of reading on Habitable planets though.

Edited April 6, 2016 by fredinno

[tater]

Sigh. I am aware of the fact that New Horizons will not cross the galaxy. I should have spelled out what I meant.

For a probe with a velocity such that it moves 100,000 light years at about 20km/s. It's a thought experiment, not an orbital mechanics problem. The real dv required for such a probe is likely at least 10-20X greater (a few hundred km/s). The crossing time is still vast compared to the time humans have had radios.

Obviously with orbital mechanics, this is not a thing, we're just ball parking crossing times, the actual dv required for such a journey would be substantially higher just to cross in a billion years, but I'm trying to get at viable probe velocities that are not decent fraction of c as a boundary value.

Ie: imagine an extragalactic object that is hyperbolic to the milky way such that it takes 1 billion years to cross it.

Edited April 6, 2016 by tater

[fredinno]

 

3 hours ago, Bill Phil said:

That hypothesis is flawed. It's based on Earth and its life. But there's also the possibility thatthe goldilocks Zone doesn't even apply.

I think it's a little too strict, but that's why it's a hypothesis. It depends on the fact that radiation/supernovae/Black holes/Neutron stars are worse for life than we think, leaving only maybe 1000 intelligent species, not all of which will expand into the galaxy.

[EliasDanger]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3WtgmT5CYU8

it actually wouldn't take so long (relatively speaking) for one civilization to colonize a whole galaxy without FTL travel. 

[Polnoch]

59 minutes ago, HebaruSan said:

I thought we were supposed to be choosing weird animals. I nominate the platypus for this one.

Chameleon.

Pterodactyl.

 

No, no. Animals only facade. facade for 3 cases:

 

P1*P2*P3 ~ 0*1*1 ~ 0

P1*P2*P3 ~ 1*0*1 ~ 0

P1*P2*P3 ~ 1*1*0 ~ 0

And probably other solutions of Fermi paradox doesn't exist. Because we have only 3 solutions, another names doesn't required.  It's main idea in text what I tryed to translate. My English not fine, may be I need to study it during more years, to try translate any tech/mathematics text, I don't know.

But have a stupid talks with not interested science girls about supermarkets, babys and dresses not interesting for me  And I can have it on Russian and in English - it's not difficult. I want to have intellectual chats with clever persons, but now I can have it only on Russian. But Russian cultural zone too small - English is main languge of this planet. May be quality of my translation very poor? Could you please write sooth? I'm sorry if your eyes fill pain, when you read explanations to the Alex Semenov's formulas.

Edited April 6, 2016 by Polnoch