Weather Chat Megathread

[tater]

Albuquerque this morning, just above freezing this morning, warming during the day, with a chance of polka dots.

 

[TheKosanianMethod]

48 minutes ago, DarkOwl57 said:

So here in West Texas, we have 2 kinds of cold fronts. The first is the nice ones. They bring lightning storms, rain, and the occasional 70 degree day. Then, there are the cold fronts that are total buggers in the royal butt. Guess which one we just had? I'll give you a hint. Today was the first time I had to break out the gloves this year. Still stumped? Okay... I'll just tell you. It's the second one. Around 40-30 degrees, after a pleasant 80 degree day yesterday. West Texas weather runs like clockwork. That is, if the clock's 3 hours off, the house is on fire, and the apocalypse is yesterdays news

That's an... interesting description. 

[SaturnianBlue]

Ophelia is almost certainly a hurricane—the area in the center is very likely an eye. We can't know for certain, of course—Ophelia is too far for aircraft recon. The official NHC forecast has the storm headed towards Europe, though it would probably be extratropical. A similar storm may be Vince from 2005.

[ProtoJeb21]

9 hours ago, SaturnianBlue said:

Ophelia is almost certainly a hurricane—the area in the center is very likely an eye. We can't know for certain, of course—Ophelia is too far for aircraft recon. The official NHC forecast has the storm headed towards Europe, though it would probably be extratropical. A similar storm may be Vince from 2005.

It's officially a hurricane now - 10 in a row this season so far. Ireland is within the Cone of Uncertainty, although Ophelia does appear to be subtropical at the time. Still, it could make landfall near or at hurricane strength. This is going to be one REALLY weird storm. 

[ProtoJeb21]

The Philippines and Taiwan has a bit of a problem...

Most forecast models are in agreement for Invest-91W in the WPac to become an absolute monster of a typhoon. And by a monster I mean absolutely monstrous - potentially a sub-900 mbar storm, more intense than Hurricane Maria by pressure and potentially gaining the same or higher wind speeds than Hurricane Irma. Once it forms, it'll smash into the northern Philippines before getting very close to Taiwan. 

Please nature just stop

[ProtoJeb21]

Hurricane Ophelia is getting much better organized. It has a very clear eye and an impressive ring of high thunderstorms around the center. Considering how it's intensifying faster than the NHC forecasts originally predicted, it seems likely that Ophelia will reach Category 2 status. 

[Firemetal]

40 minutes ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

Hurricane Ophelia is getting much better organized. It has a very clear eye and an impressive ring of high thunderstorms around the center. Considering how it's intensifying faster than the NHC forecasts originally predicted, it seems likely that Ophelia will reach Category 2 status. 

Who now? Not another one...

Fire

[Vanamonde]

It's summer in California, which means about 10% of the state is combusting at any given moment. (Big and numerous wildfires, for those unfamiliar with the region.) For two days the air has smelled smokey, the sky has been brown-tinged, and sunrises and sunsets are golden/orange. Yesterday we got a robocall from the county health authorities warning us to be mindful of bad air quality. 

I am about 90 miles from the fires, but the smoke smell is so strong that it woke me up at 4am Tuesday, and I looked around to see if my apartment building was on fire. 

[Green Baron]

I had never been close to a wild fire before, until last year. A fire lasted for a few days, 40% of the forest on the southern part of La Palma were burnt, but no damage to property occurred. A forest worker died when scouting the fire. A helicopter went down because of gear damage, but the pilot could get away unharmed.

Weather was hot (>30°C), very dry and windy.

It was very impressive. The glow on the mountain at night, the fronts of flames driven by the wind. A group of pines burst into flames (dwarf song from "the hobbit" :-)) some 300m away from were i watched one night and i could feel the heat in the face.

The cloud from the fire spread over where i live, it rained charcoal pieces and the patio was covered, a sound like falling glass.

 

Edited October 12, 2017 by Green Baron

[tater]

We have fires visible most every year someplace. Of course view distances are huge here in New Mexico.

[ProtoJeb21]

Ophelia was recently upgraded to a Category 2 hurricane as of the 5 pm advisory. Most models predict it to maintain intensity or strengthen a bit over the next 24 hours, before gradually weakening. About 5 models (out of about 15-20 total) show Ophelia reaching Category 3 status. After that, it seems likely to make landfall in Ireland as a hurricane-force subtropical cyclone. 

[ProtoJeb21]

Apparently, according to data on Tropical Tidbits, Hurricane Ophelia is now a Category 3. Quite shocking for a storm in the subtropics, but it does make sense if you look at satellite imagery. Since last night's advisories Ophelia has become much better organized, with convection contracting into an annular shape and a deep eye forming. This burst of intensification was predicted by several models, and it may keep Ophelia Tropical for a longer amount of time as it races towards Ireland. 

[SaturnianBlue]

8 minutes ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

Apparently, according to data on Tropical Tidbits, Hurricane Ophelia is now a Category 3. Quite shocking for a storm in the subtropics, but it does make sense if you look at satellite imagery. Since last night's advisories Ophelia has become much better organized, with convection contracting into an annular shape and a deep eye forming. This burst of intensification was predicted by several models, and it may keep Ophelia Tropical for a longer amount of time as it races towards Ireland. 

This is all in 25 C waters! Usually these kinds of waters don't even support a hurricane. First the storm holds on for longer than expected, then it actually strengthens!

[ProtoJeb21]

8 minutes ago, SaturnianBlue said:

This is all in 25 C waters! Usually these kinds of waters don't even support a hurricane. First the storm holds on for longer than expected, then it actually strengthens!

It looks like it'll be Hurricane Debbie all over again...

Oh my Kraken nature plz stahp

[ProtoJeb21]

And it's officially a Category 3. No other major hurricanes have formed this far north and this far east in all of recorded Atlantic hurricane history. 

Meanwhile, forecasts regarding the potential new Super Typhoon in the WPac suggest multiple other typhoons forming and rotating around each other, maybe a few gobbling each other up. Very confusing. 

[ProtoJeb21]

I can't believe we're getting such good satellite imagery from an October storm in the subtropics. There shouldn't be a major hurricane here this time of year - but obviously, nature had other ideas.

[kerbinorbiter]

SOME HOW A HURRICANE GOT NEAR THE UK IM CONFUSED can anyone please explain why this has occored

[Green Baron]

Nobody can give you exact numbers.

 

Because conditions were appropriate.

We have an extremely warm Atlantic surface, one of the main driving forces for storms of that sort. When the storm formed it stayed stationary for a few days. Now it drifts with the global circulation pattern, which is in this latitude mostly from west to east. It'll calm down when it comes over cooler waters or hits land.

UK's met office has warning for the Irish coastal waters.

 

Overall, the patterns that we observe this year are in conformity with models that predict stronger and more storms as a result of global warming. They were called "tropical" in the past because they mostly appear over tropical waters. But as temperature and energy distribution in hydro- and atmosphere changes they can of course happen at higher latitudes as well.

If you're living in a rural area on the Irish western coast then get some candles and a few tin cans because it might happen that you'll be cut off for a few days if the storm doesn't loose much energy. Models aren't clear, it might just be a post tropical storm but it might as well arrive as a (weakened) hurricane.

Edited October 15, 2017 by Green Baron

[ProtoJeb21]

Speaking of more intense tropical cyclones, newly formed Tropical Depression 25W is expected to become an absolute MONSTER next week. Some models are predicting this thing to get as intense as 871 mbar - even stronger than Hypercane Patricia from 2015. This could easily become one of, if not the most intense tropical cyclone ever recorded. Even more concerning is how it could smash into Japan as a Category 5 or Category 4 equivalent typhoon. Nature, PLEASE STOP!!!!

[Green Baron]

Nature is the wrong one to blame ... :-/

[ProtoJeb21]

Oh

My

%$%^&%#&^&*&^#@&**&!@#

[SaturnianBlue]

14 minutes ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

Oh

My

%$%^&%#&^&*&^#@&**&!@#

This is the GFS though, right? It was pretty bad at forecasting Typhoon Noru from July—it kept thinking it would deepen by 75 mb and slam into Kyushu with sub-900 mb pressures, even just a couple days before landfall (it was actually the equivalent of a category 1).

[ProtoJeb21]

14 minutes ago, SaturnianBlue said:

This is the GFS though, right? It was pretty bad at forecasting Typhoon Noru from July—it kept thinking it would deepen by 75 mb and slam into Kyushu with sub-900 mb pressures, even just a couple days before landfall (it was actually the equivalent of a category 1).

Just about everyone failed at predicting Noru. It took a completely different track and intensity trend than expected after quickly becoming a Category 5. Originally, the NHC forecast predicted it going due north into Tokyo as a Category 4 or 3, but instead it went northwest before hitting that part of Japan with Nagasaki and Miyazaki and Kagoshima. But considering how warm the waters in 25W's path are, and how it's going a different route than Noru, I expect the models to be pretty accurate...for everything before landfall. It may or may not turn out to be what the GFS models predict. 

[NSEP]

Its 28C outside in the middle of Octobre! Whaaaa?

[RoadRunnerAerospace]

Temperture dumped from a nice, balmy 76 to a.... Ok 60 degrees (imperial) in less than 4 hours