Vandenberg AFB Canyon Fire

[Rybo]

I'm sure some of you are aware but for those that aren't there is currently a wildfire burning on Vandeberg AFB South Base (where all the major SLCs are). The news reports are slow and hardly accurate so I will do my best to provide accurate details as I receive them and clear up some of the misguided info being disseminated.

The fire started on Saturday 9/17/16 at approximately 5:20PM local. Cause is still undetermined but the rumor on base is arson as there was no lightning producing storms in the area. There are two main rumored motives for arson currently circulating (AKA what I've overheard while eating meals at the BX): delay/destroy WorldView-4, or further damage SpaceX. The latter is not as common but boy do the people that think that have vivid imaginations. I've heard crazy stuff ranging from "ULA can't handle the competition and saw an opportunity to take SpaceX down" to "I saw Tory Bruno himself hiking in that area on Saturday...just sayin." Personally, I suspect something much less sinister (but still stupid) like someone tossing a lit cigarette butt out the car window on their way to work. I see it happen two to three times a day and it seems the most logical explanation.

As of 4:45ish this afternoon my supervisor told me that he was told by the 30th Space Wing commander that the fire has grown to just under 6,000 acres and continues to burn in a northwesterly direction almost directly towards SLC-3 where AV-062 and WorldView-4 are inside the MST. It remains 0% contained and the fire line is currently 1.2 miles away and moving towards the SLC at an approximate rate of 100 feet per hour. Simple math says that if it continues at that rate the fire will reach the SLC-3 perimeter in about 63 hours. The firefighting crew consists of about 560 people from various agencies (one of whom is my uncle from Cal Fire that coordinates the S-2 retardant drops).

Now here's what the news gets wrong: The launch of WorldView 4 was NOT TECHNICALLY DELAYED BY THE FIRE. Rather, it was delayed by the lack of necessary personnel to staff the launch. Weather briefings are GO across the board with the winds keeping the smoke and ash mostly south of the pad and blowing out to the southwest. Some firefighter we talked to explained it with some firefighter jargon but the gist of it is that due to convective patterns wildfires tend to burn in a direction somewhat orthogonal to the horizontal component of the velocity vector of the wind. So that's how the wind is mostly blowing southwesterly but the fire is mostly burning northwesterly. If that's actually why, I haven't got a clue. But the winds here are generally blowing to the southeast and fire is generally burning to the northwest so I can't argue.

I'll do my best to keep this updated with current info but I don't frequent the forums as often as I used to. If you have questions I will do my best to answer them if I can.

Also, my apologies if this is the incorrect forum. Moderators feel free to move it as needed.

 

Edited September 20, 2016 by Rybo

[Dman979]

Well.

I didn't know this was even happening. Thank you for being my only sourced on this.

I'm assuming that you work at Vandenberg? Also, what are SLCs?

[insert_name]

15 minutes ago, Dman979 said:

Well.

I didn't know this was even happening. Thank you for being my only sourced on this.

I'm assuming that you work at Vandenberg? Also, what are SLCs?

SLC is an acronym for Space Launch Complex. @Ryboalso is the fire entirely on the base?

[Rybo]

It is almost entirely contained on South Base. A VERY small portion (several hundred square feet at most) of private land on the east of the base (just south of Honda Creek) is burning. The exact-ish location is this stand of trees here: https://www.google.com/maps/place/Vandenberg+Air+Force+Base/@34.5885295,-120.5466949,413m/data=!3m1!1e3!4m5!3m4!1s0x0:0xd7ea9c09f025e90f!8m2!3d34.7420267!4d-120.5724404

My understanding is that 1) it isn't expected to continue burning in that direction due to less dry fuel and 2) efforts there are a significantly lower priority than protecting SLC-3. If you include the Atlas V, WorldView-4, fuel, and SLC-3 facilities, total value is upward of 1.5 billion USD, probably closer to 2 billion USD.

@Dman979 I work for Lockheed Martin and I am currently on TDY at Vandenberg.

 

I would also like to further clarify the reason for the WV-4 delay. For all launches a there are USAF firefighter and hazmat teams standing by in the event of a catastrophic failure. Launch can not and will not proceed without them in place. When the wildfire broke out they were re-tasked with containment and thus can't be on launch duty. In my humble non-firefighter opinion the 26th is an EXTREMELY optimistic launch date. However, if they are able to bring in more Cal Fire or US Forestry Service dudes they may be able to spare the required launch personnel which is what I HOPE happens. 

[Rybo]

Update as of 9/20 at 8AM local

The fire doubled in size overnight and is now just over 10,200 acres. South Base is no longer accessible to anyone except firefighting and other emergency personnel. It is now less than 1 mile from SLC-3, It has burned all the way to the SLC-6 (ULA pad where the Deltas launch) perimeter, and it's about a third of a mile from SLC-4 (SpaceX pad). It is my understanding that they have a Falcon 9 in their processing facility but luckily, SLC-6 is mostly vacant. SLC-8 is also threatened, but protecting it is a much lower priority. For those that may be curious, SLC-2 that has the Delta II for already erected for JPSS-1 is on North Base west of the runway and is not threatened.

Looking on Google Maps I measured the distance from where it looks like the fire is to SLC-3 and it looks like it is between 4,500 and 4,800 feet away. It jumped Bear Canyon Rd and Spring Canyon Rd overnight but firefighters dug a massive trench which has slowed most of the fire line closest to SLC-3 from advancing. Hopefully it doesn't jump it like it did the previous lines. Overall containment is estimated to be 15-22%.  Airborne firefighting efforts resumed around 7am as soon as it was light enough to safely do so and will continue until there isn't enough daylight with an emphasis on the lines and trenches protecting the SLCs. A coworker told me this morning that on his drive in he saw some of the helos filling their buckets up at the Home Depot in Lompoc.

Winds are still keeping most of the smoke and ash south of the pad. The wind is generally calm but somewhat erratic with the fringes of tropical storm Paine beginning to push into SoCal. Unfortunately the rain coming with Paine are expected to stay well south of VAFB and there is no rain in the forecast in the foreseeable future.

I have also confirmed that some of the facilities at SLC-3 are some of the facilities mentioned in the news as being on generator power. The spacecraft and rocket remain healthy but most of the WV-4 folks I've talked to are sweating bullets. Scratch that...they are sweating M1A1 Abrams shells. And understandably so.

Lastly, if any of you live in the area and have access to Vandenberg AFB with an appropriate DBIDS or CAC card, the 30th Civil Engineering Squadron is accepting food and snack donations for the firefighters. They are set up in the command conference room in building 11442 off of Utah Ave.

 

Edited September 20, 2016 by Rybo

[Rybo]

Update as of 9/20 at 10AM local

Fire is now over 11,000 acres but fire lines are holding near all SLCs. I have confirmed that SpaceX has a Falcon 9 at their facility along with 10 Iridium sats. 

[Scotius]

Are firefighters allowed to use counter-fires? Wind direction seems to be favourable - blowing towards the main fire. Or is that tactic a no-go because of the vicinity of many vulnerable obiects?

[Jovus]

@Rybo this is really cool that you've made this thread to keep us updated. Thanks.

You're making me wish I were near Vandenberg to help out.

I had idly wondered if the fire had something to do with the hydrogen leak that scrubbed the launch initially, but it's clear from this that no, it doesn't. Speaking of, you said that (as far as you know) the rocket itself is green across the board?

Know that at least some of us are paying attention to this and rooting for ULA. Just 'cause we like SpaceX doesn't mean we don't like you too. There are never enough rockets in the sky.

[Rybo]

Update as of 9/20 at 12PM local

Slightly improved containment numbers but only because parts of the fire have reached coastal areas with less fuel and those areas are containing themselves, so to speak. Growth has continued but I don't have an official acreage number yet. I don't have confirmation but rumors are that fire has started to burn down into the valley just southwest of the pad. This is considered an extremely high risk area because the hydrazine storage tanks are buried underground just northwest of the SLC-3 fence about 800-1000 feet away. There are 3 towers with IR sensors on top that are pointed at the tanks that can be seen here: https://www.google.com/maps/@34.6397972,-120.5901545,58m/data=!3m1!1e3 My best guess is that if the fire burns into that valley the IR sensors will get saturated with heat and no longer provide accurate information on the status of the hydrazine tanks. I will try to find out if if the tanks have anything in them.

Another rumor (and my primary concern) is that the air intakes for the SLC-3 facilities will quickly be overwhelmed by the smoke and particulate matter. Many parts of the inside of the MST are clean rooms, specifically the bottom floor where the flame bucket and the RD-180 nozzles are, the 4th or 5th floor where one of the avionics service bay access doors is, and the 14th-17th floors where the payload and fairing mates to the centaur. There is also a comms room underneath the pad we call the meat locker (temperature is kept around 58 degrees F) that is a very low level clean room. The umbilical that connects to the payload prior to launch runs throughout the entire length of the tower and terminates in this room and is connected to several large sets of equipment called "test sets" or "racks" used to command and communicate with the spacecraft. Lack of adequate airflow also results in heat buildup which can be detrimental to both the rocket and the spacecraft.

Personal side note...the smell of smoke has been present since Sunday on North Base, but it got MUCH stronger today. Went to lunch at Sissy's in Lompoc and had some ash on the car when I left which is the first time this has happened to me since it all started. I usually eat at the BX or the Pacific Coast Club though so that's probably why I haven't seen ash until now.

@Scotius Winds are variable to the southeast. I'm assuming by counter-fires you mean controlled burns. I'm no expert but to me it would see that it's simply too late and too high risk for that now.

@Jovus Glad you like the thread. I figured if something like this would matter to anyone it would be this community. The latest health update I got was a few hours ago but at the time, yes, AV-062 and WorldView-4 were both healthy and happy. This could quickly change if the particle counters in the clean rooms get angry and tell the launch team that there is crap in the air. I will do my best to get better info if I can, however, I'm not directly supporting this launch so I don't have any real need-to-know. As such, I'm trying not to ask for too much but I'll keep providing updates as I get them.

Edited September 21, 2016 by Rybo
typo

[Rybo]

Update as of 9/21 at 8:30AM local

The acreage total in this mornings briefing was 13,100 acres total with 55% containment. The IR image from last nights overflight is haunting. I expect that Justin Ray will be given a copy sometime today to publish to Spaceflight Now. Firefighting crews were complemented late yesterday afternoon with about 400 new personnel from various agencies. I don't remember the exact number but somewhere around 1,200 total emergency personnel, of which about 1,000 are directly involved with fighting the fire. Big progress was made late last night and early this morning and all of the major fire lines are holding very well. Winds today are expected to be stronger (15-20mph) and shifting to the northwest which is expected to help the fight. As mentioned before, fires tend to burn orthogonal to the wind (still not sure I understand how or why, but I trust that the firefighter that explained it to me knows more about it than I do). In theory the fire should start pushing more towards the southwest or northeast and take some of the pressure off the crews manning the lines protecting the SLCs.

ULA and WorldView-4 techs and engineers were also allowed limited access to a portion of the pad facilities and the booster and payload remain GO for launch. The clean room air handlers were inspected and are in better shape than originally thought and the particle counters show no increase in particulate matter over the last 48 hours. At this point the outlook has certainly improved but it's far from over. The huge flames and the eerie glow at night looking from North Base to South Base still have me doubt if the 26th is really doable for launch but the Commander remains confident in his firefighting airmen and the crews helping them.

[_Augustus_]

How are the other rockets currently?

[Rybo]

F9-030 is safe inside the SpaceX processing facility along with the 10 Iridium sats. I believe that is the only other booster currently on South Base. To my knowledge, AV-068 is not at VAFB yet.

[_Augustus_]

13 minutes ago, Rybo said:

F9-030 is safe inside the SpaceX processing facility along with the 10 Iridium sats. I believe that is the only other booster currently on South Base. To my knowledge, AV-068 is not at VAFB yet.

When's the launch of F9-030?

[Rybo]

TBD.

[Mitchz95]

Probably not for a while, if they haven't found the cause of the Amos-6 failure yet.

How long did it take them to figure out CRS-7 again?

[Kryten]

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-vandenberg-fire-grows-20160921-snap-story.html

A firefighter has died after a rollover crash of a water tender.

[Rybo]

Super sad, but if you've ever driven through that roundabout it's easy to see how it could have happened. There are accidents there pretty frequently. 

https://www.google.com/maps/@34.664665,-120.4078546,233m/data=!3m1!1e3

As a side note, if you're ever visiting there is a kickass little strawberry stand that's usually set up 200-300 yards west of there. I'm not sure the guy even speaks English but I'm confident that they're the best strawberries on this planet.

@Mitchz95 I wouldn't use that as a baseline to guess how long it will take. Generally speaking, in-flight failures are significantly harder to diagnose than a rocket sitting on the pad that is physically connected to a network. That said, I wouldn't be surprised if they don't launch again until early next year.

[Jovus]

@Rybo I don't know how close you've been following SpaceX, but the sounds they're making indicate they have no clue what caused the malfunction. Maybe that's changed, but apparently whatever-it-was didn't show up in any of their telemetry or diagnostics.

Glad to hear that the rockets are still OK and the particle count didn't increase because of the smoke. Those clean rooms can be a real bear to re-clean if something gets through.

If you know, what's the civilian damage from the fire so far? Are there neighborhoods or what-not near by? Unfortunately I've never been in the Vandenberg area. Oh, and I take it no news is good news regarding the hydrazine tanks?

[Rybo]

I haven't been following their investigation too closely, but I'm certainly rooting for them. Despite not seeing the cause yet, they still have access to WAY more information than they would have had if the booster had launched. Transmitting data over a physical umbilical is much easier, faster, and more efficient than sending it UHF once those umbilical lines are pulled at launch. At least that's the case with an Atlas. I'm not familiar with their processes and sequences so perhaps they do something differently (but I don't know why they would).

There isn't really anything out there to worry about. Lots of farmland mostly, although I'm not sure what the crops are. Best guess is soy or peanuts or some other small plant like that. There are a few structures around those fields but nothing noteworthy like a neighborhood. The biggest building I think is a large white barn that I think is used to store their field tractors.

The hydrazine tanks are fine....you would know if they weren't  Hydrazine makes big booms.

[Rybo]

Update as of 9/21 at 6PM local

Containment continues to generally improve but some setbacks are expected tomorrow and/or Friday with high winds (25-30mph gusting to 40-50mph). Crews are prepping by doubling fire lines/breaks and the aviation component of the fight has been bolstered by an additional DC-10 that made several passes today. I'm not sure where they are flying from since, to my knowledge, none of the closest airports (Lompoc, Santa Maria, Santa Barbara, etc) have adequate runway length. Luckily there are still a slew of other aircraft and helos supporting and a water or retardant drop is happening at least every 10-15 minutes, sometimes back to back to back. It's actually really cool to watch them do their thing...the professionalism and sense of urgency is profound.

Unfortunately the on-scene fire chief says 100% containment is not expected until at least the end of the month. Col Moss clarified that that DOES NOT mean that launch can't proceed on the 26th if the necessary people can take time to stand launch duty and weather, air quality, LV, and SC, etc. are GO. He declined to comment on when he expected launch would occur and said he stands by the initial projection of no earlier than the 26th. He further clarified that the launch conditions must be satisfactory to all parties, not just the wing.

[Rybo]

Update as of 9/22 at 12PM local

Despite the wind I hear that huge are being made. I haven't been able to attend any of the space wing or fire briefings today due to work commitments but I'm hoping to be able to attend the one this evening. People at the BX told me there has only been minor acreage growth and containment is at 75%. All the major lines held overnight and are still holding. The tempo certainly hasn't decreased and drops are still quite regular and base is still buzzing with emergency vehicles and helos. It's like a non-stop airshow.

I'll try to get one more update tonight before the weekend and then I'm going to enjoy adult beverages and a trip to meet General Sherman!

[Kryten]

A new fire has started on the north base; http://www.ksby.com/story/33161972/new-fire-breaks-out-at-vandenberg-air-force-base?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter_KSBY

[Rybo]

DAMN! I was mostly working in 8337 today and never saw anything when I left around 3. This is the first I'm even hearing of it but I was at Chumash from like 4 to like 20 minutes ago. I'm also a bit intoxicated though so maybe that's it haha. Glad I took tomorrow off, hope it doesn't spread too much since I usually work southeast of there at the JSOC at the corner of California and 13th.

@Kryten in my absence this weekend while I look at huge trees I pass the torch to you to keep this thread updated with any info you get. 

 

[mikegarrison]

1 hour ago, Rybo said:

DAMN! I was mostly working in 8337 today and never saw anything when I left around 3. This is the first I'm even hearing of it but I was at Chumash from like 4 to like 20 minutes ago. I'm also a bit intoxicated though so maybe that's it haha. Glad I took tomorrow off, hope it doesn't spread too much since I usually work southeast of there at the JSOC at the corner of California and 13th.

@Kryten in my absence this weekend while I look at huge trees I pass the torch to you to keep this thread updated with any info you get. 

Passing the torch may not be quite the ideal choice of words in this instance.

[Kryten]

The fire on south base is pretty much contained now, evacuation orders for communities outside the base have been lifted and specialists are starting to enter south base to evaluate the damage.

The fire on north base (what they're calling the airport road fire) is now 250 acres. It's currently moving away from residential areas, and plenty of civilian facilities on north base are still open.

The launch of WorldView 4 on the 26th has now formally been cancelled, although it was never likely. They're now looking at launch in 'early October,'.