totm nov 2023 SpaceX Discussion Thread

[Nuke]

back, looks like i missed the fireworks.

[Minmus Taster]

Oh boy the FAA is going to blow a fuse over this, we're lucky no one was hurt.

 

[K^2]

That was very pretty. And I don't want to make a big deal about any particular failure - this purely a superstitious side of me speaking - wow, we're off to some bad omens this year.

[Nuke]

the news is going to tear this up. they didn't even mention the successes.

 

anyway i saw a loose panel on ss the way up. then the pattern of the engines going out indicated a cascade failure. almost certainly in a pattern which would make the ship start spinning wildly, assuming the thrust asymmetry outmatched the gimbal range.  while an engine failure is almost certain, i cannot eliminate an structural failure, since as far as i understood this is the first ship that contained mass simulators. falling debris inside the ship could have crushed some plumbing.

Edited 14 hours ago by Nuke

[Minmus Taster]

6 minutes ago, K^2 said:

That was very pretty. And I don't want to make a big deal about any particular failure - this purely a superstitious side of me speaking - wow, we're off to some bad omens this year.

As a fellow semi-stitous poster I can conccur, I feel difficult times ahead for spaceflight.

Just now, Nuke said:

the news is going to tear this up. they didn't even mention the successes.

I feel like this would be the first time they have a reason to gossip. This was pretty bad.

[PakledHostage]

1 hour ago, Flavio hc16 said:

This is bad, this might be a worse f-up than IFT-1

Yeah. I expect it will delay further launches pending an investigation.  It's hard to say that it's inconsequential when aircraft are being held and diverted in a large area north of Puerto Rico to avoid raining debris. Even a G5 out of Teterboro was delayed. I expect it's owner will be having a chat with Elon. Those billionaires all socialize in the same circles, right?

Edited 14 hours ago by PakledHostage

[Minmus Taster]

No words, never seen anything quite like this before. Terrifying views too.

https://x.com/Matt_Lowne/status/1880032865335013786

[zolotiyeruki]

1 hour ago, tater said:

I watch the real stream, all other patter is garbage.

I'm glad I'm not the only one who noticed flames coming from the hinge at T+07:55.  No flames at that same location at +04:45.  That's right near the engines.  Yup, something blowed up good.

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

27 minutes ago, K^2 said:

That was very pretty. And I don't want to make a big deal about any particular failure - this purely a superstitious side of me speaking - wow, we're off to some bad omens this year.

When uncompromising perfection is expected, you might be right - but I'm on the other end of the spectrum. 

Two experimental rockets - both huger than anything else that has flown since Apollo... Both having had some measure of success?  Booster catch is amazing and SX potentially having a competitor for heavy lift - plus potential size of future science missions? 

 

I see this as really neat, really fast progress.  I expect problems - and hope to see NG fly again soon. 

 

 

. 

That said - the debris field forcing aircraft to reroute is gonna be a huge stink no matter what - and SX should have to answer some stiff questions! 

[Nuke]

of eggs and omelets. and i make a good omelet. destruction is a necessary step in creation.

Edited 14 hours ago by Nuke

[AckSed]

I had hopes of another scorching Ship return through the atmosphere. Alas, I was complacent.

[tater]

1 hour ago, BeastHunter said:

https://x.com/FlyerXT/status/1880027458642350095

Not sure how to do embeds but here is a video of the explosion.

Change the "x" in the URL to "twitter" and it embeds.

 

[Superpluto126]

Yikes, not a good look for SpaceX

[Minmus Taster]

https://x.com/DJSnM/status/1880049991177420972

[tater]

This needs to be addressed for sure. The RUD/FTS is less concerning than the debris path seems to have left the corridor (bottom yellow outline):

Maybe have wider hazard zones for a while, and also address the underlying issue.

[Superpluto126]

Looking back on it's even worse than I thought. Only upside is they proved booster catch wasn't a fluke.  Flights are being disrupted and this time I fully believe they should take as long as possible to review what went wrong, FAA Investigation and all.

[darthgently]

57 minutes ago, K^2 said:

That was very pretty. And I don't want to make a big deal about any particular failure - this purely a superstitious side of me speaking - wow, we're off to some bad omens this year.

I’m just going to throw this out there:

Starbase was the target of a bomb threat extremely recently.  Something may have been monkey wrenched in lieu of a bomb.  Given the videos documenting vagrants were intentionally setting grass fires, apparently for promises of compensation, in LA I don’t think anything should be ruled out during a proper investigation of what happened here.  If it weren’t for the bomb threat it wouldn’t have occurred to me

Edited 14 hours ago by darthgently

[tater]

2 minutes ago, Superpluto126 said:

Looking back on it's even worse than I thought. Only upside is they proved booster catch wasn't a fluke.  Flights are being disrupted and this time I fully believe they should take as long as possible to review what went wrong, FAA Investigation and all.

It should take as long as is necessary to establish the cause, and establish mitigations. Taking "as long as possible" is absurd.

[Superpluto126]

1 minute ago, tater said:

It should take as long as is necessary to establish the cause, and establish mitigations. Taking "as long as possible" is absurd.

That could have been phrased better

What I meant is they should spend some serious time investigating this, as this is what I consider the worst failure of the Starship program so far.  Obviously don't purposely stall for time but they should absolutely go through every possible thing that could have led to this failure.

[PakledHostage]

10 minutes ago, tater said:

This needs to be addressed for sure. The RUD/FTS is less concerning than the debris path seems to have left the corridor (bottom yellow outline):

I don't understand the relevance of the corridor? I looked for NOTAMs and TFRs and didn't see anything.  The fact that aircraft were demonstrably in the vicinity suggests that there weren't any restrictions,  so evidently the authorities weren't concerned enough about a launch failure to issue anything? We know that several aircraft were forced to hold or divert after it happened, but it seems to have been a reaction rather than pre-planned.

[tater]

I don't think it's anything loony, it was likely a plumbing problem (CH4 seems to fall off fast), that might have sequentially starved engines, followed by either a RUD, or initiation of FTS.

Plus side is FTS seems to have been very effective vs previous use—which might be something interesting to look at per something Scott Manley posted. It might be worth looking into the descent of one, giant piece of debris, vs thousands of smaller chunks. When FTS was triggered by humans, this is harder to do, but when the computer does it, it could certainly have parameters to decide when/if to open the vehicle. If the current trajectory puts it into empty ocean, let it stay intact, if the trajectory might be concerning, disassemble it. It's actually a complex decision which would be best, a far lower chance of being hit by an intact SS, or a shotgun blast of birdshot with a higher % chance of a hit that does far less damage.

1 minute ago, PakledHostage said:

I don't understand the relevance of the corridor? I looked for NOTAMs and TFRs and didn't see anything.  The fact that aircraft were demonstrably in the vicinity suggests that there weren't any restrictions,  so evidently the authorities weren't concerned enough about a launch failure to issue anything? We know that several aircraft were forced to hold or divert after it happened, but it seems to have been a reaction rather than pre-planned.

Gotcha, I agree completely—you never know, some people here might want a punitive examination.

 

[darthgently]

4 minutes ago, tater said:

It should take as long as is necessary to establish the cause, and establish mitigations. Taking "as long as possible" is absurd.

Agreed.  Suggesting a bureaucracy “take as long as possible” could be like serving unlimited cake and ice cream in a kindergarten

[tater]

3 minutes ago, PakledHostage said:

I don't understand the relevance of the corridor? I looked for NOTAMs and TFRs and didn't see anything.  The fact that aircraft were demonstrably in the vicinity suggests that there weren't any restrictions,  so evidently the authorities weren't concerned enough about a launch failure to issue anything? We know that several aircraft were forced to hold or divert after it happened, but it seems to have been a reaction rather than pre-planned.

That shaded polygon was a warning area. There are 2 levels, a red zone (closer to TX), and these lighter areas. Unsure if that was "stay out" until time X, or simply an area where they might expect to be prepared to divert.

[PakledHostage]

12 minutes ago, tater said:

That shaded polygon was a warning area. There are 2 levels, a red zone (closer to TX), and these lighter areas. Unsure if that was "stay out" until time X, or simply an area where they might expect to be prepared to divert.

Over on Reddit, someone claiming to have been flying in the area at the time posted that ATC broadcast "attentional all aircraft due to space vehicle mishap, we have a debris field from xxxx to xxx to xxx, standby for individual instructions to vacate the debris field".  It's in the same thread where the video that @Minmus Taster posted above was posted by the guy who claims to have filmed it.

[Ultimate Steve]

Quote

Preliminary indication is that we had an oxygen/fuel leak in the cavity above the ship engine firewall that was large enough to build pressure in excess of the vent capacity. 

Apart from obviously double-checking for leaks, we will add fire suppression to that volume and probably increase vent area. Nothing so far suggests pushing next launch past next month.