totm nov 2023 SpaceX Discussion Thread

[Ultimate Steve]

I'm going to steer clear of the current topic for hopefully obvious reasons (though I do have mixed feelings on it).

I had a conversation with someone on Discord today about the sticker price of a Starship launch - As in, you can go to spacex.com and the sticker price for a launch on a reused Falcon 9 is currently 69.75 million dollars. There are extras that can push that higher, of course. But I was wondering what the sticker price for a standard LEO Starship launch on SpaceX's website will end up being when they finally post one (both in the short term and the long term). Specifically for the sake of comparison, a standard fully reusable cargo launch with no extras (refueling flights will probably be less due to no payload processing).

Like on one side you've got the people thinking they will actually get to 2-3m. Then on the other side you've got the people that think that the reusable architecture is so complicated that Starship might eventually be able to get below Falcon 9's cost per kilogram (only maybe putting the sticker price below 389m for a 100t capacity Starship in the long  term, more if the payload capacity grows). I find both figures insane. My current train of thought is that barring any major departures from the current concept, Starship's sticker price (once published) will never be more than the current Falcon 9 sticker price (69.75m) with it eventually falling to somewhere between 10 and 40 million dollars per flight (though admittedly that is quite a large range).

Thoughts?

[tater]

6 minutes ago, Nuke said:

how many people has boeing killed recently? why do they get a pass? i really dont get the elon hate.

He's an apostate.

[Pthigrivi]

33 minutes ago, Nuke said:

how many people has boeing killed recently? why do they get a pass? i really dont get the elon hate.

I think Boeing is actually the perfect example of what happens over time when you let companies regulate themselves. They become irrationally risk tolerant corporate basket cases. So sure! Lets take the brakes off this train! Get that death toll up to something newsworthy!
 

https://cbsaustin.com/amp/news/local/lawsuit-claims-safety-protocol-lapse-in-workers-death-at-tesla-gigafactory

 

https://www.roadandtrack.com/news/a62919131/tesla-has-highest-fatal-accident-rate-of-all-auto-brands-study/

Edited 5 hours ago by Pthigrivi

[Nuke]

so one. proportionality matters.

[Pthigrivi]

43 minutes ago, Nuke said:

so one. proportionality matters.

Second link? And I didn’t throw out the first one out of nowhere. Elon’s companies have a pretty horrendous reputation for worker safety, and sexual and racial harassment. I think both Tesla and SpaceX have had incredible achievements and its a true testament to all of those incredible people doing the actual work, but those achievements have come in spite of rather than because of Elon’s leadership. He’s very, very good at pulling in billions in PE from Goldman and Saudi princes. Certainly they don’t care who lives or dies if number go up. And in the world we live in maybe that giant pile of money is all that matters and no one else cares either. Im sorry but I can take no moral comfort in it. 
 

Elon absolutely has worse personal moral failings but the one that has earned him the most money and notoriety is essentially his ability to be the Edison of his day. Not so great an inventor or even intellectually interesting in any substantial way, but he is acutely adept at taking credit for the achievements of better, more talented people and presenting them as his own to the eager, not so discerning masses in a media savvy way. 

Edited 4 hours ago by Pthigrivi

[Deddly]

Gentlemen, we have strayed from the topic. Mild political comments are occasionally tolerated when they are related to space exploration (as per the rules) but general Elon bashing or praising is not up for discussion just because SpaceX is partially directed by the guy.