totm nov 2023 SpaceX Discussion Thread

[tater]

 

[Kerbal7]

43 minutes ago, _Augustus_ said:

AHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

His company is a failure. They promised to launch tourists a decade ago, and are still testing their suborbital space plane, which can no longer reach space because it's too heavy. Their orbital rocket cannot use White Knight to launch, and is smaller than Electron.

If he wants to upstage Elon, maybe he should actually put real money into his project and re-evaluate his goals.

Billionaires have huge egos and like to make wildly optimistic predictions for company PR purposes. And that includes Elon Musk from SpaceX. It's good to get people talking about their companies and themselves.

Elon Musk has said in 2022, two BFRs will be making cargo runs to Mars with equipment to start a colony.  This is to be followed in 2024 by two more BFR cargo runs and 2 BFR colony ships carrying colonist. These are all recent statements. Now I know there are many Musk fans here but I'll tell you these predictions are NOT going to happen. No way, no how. It's wildly fantastical science fiction. The capabilities do not exist anywhere do be able to do this and are not even on the 30 year horizon.

So Mr. Musk is going to be eating some words of his own in the next 5-10 years. It's just not Richard Branson. Space is hard to do.   

[_Augustus_]

7 minutes ago, Kerbal7 said:

Elon Musk has said in 2022, two BFRs will be making cargo runs to Mars with equipment to start a colony.  This is to be followed in 2024 by two more BFR cargo runs and 2 BFR colony ships carrying colonist. These are all recent statements. Now I know there are many Musk fans here but I'll tell you these predictions are NOT going to happen. No way, no how. It's wildly fantastical science fiction. The capabilities do not exist anywhere do be able to do this and are not even on the 30 year horizon.

I have no doubt he will not meet the dates for either. I think that the cargo runs will be in 2024 and the first crew will be in the 2027-2030 time frame. But what capabilities don't exist exactly????

[PB666]

 

15 minutes ago, Kerbal7 said:

Billionaires have huge egos and like to make wildly optimistic predictions for company PR purposes. And that includes Elon Musk from SpaceX. It's good to get people talking about their companies and themselves.

Elon Musk has said in 2022, two BFRs will be making cargo runs to Mars with equipment to start a colony.  This is to be followed in 2024 by two more BFR cargo runs and 2 BFR colony ships carrying colonist. These are all recent statements. Now I know there are many Musk fans here but I'll tell you these predictions are NOT going to happen. No way, no how. It's wildly fantastical science fiction. The capabilities do not exist anywhere do be able to do this and are not even on the 30 year horizon.

So Mr. Musk is going to be eating some words of his own in the next 5-10 years. It's just not Richard Branson. Space is hard to do.   

I agree, but the problem is that if you set easy goals, like going back to the moon 50 years after you have already done it 6 times, and instead of taking 7 years, you take 20 years . . . . what impetus is there for the system of systems to improve.

Im not talking about making a 'better capsule' or a more efficient or safer system. I'm talking about all those nose to the grindstone 'neccesity is the mother of all invention' things that need to take place. I am not going to become a Musk cheerleader, but by the same token I am extremely dismayed by the public sector progress in space since the completion of the ISS, particularly after the Shuttle program was cancelled. Public sector space is very happy watching snails pass them by and charging 5 billion dollars a year to the spectators. . . .let Musk have his dreams and lets see what he manages to pump out.

[DAL59]

16 minutes ago, Kerbal7 said:

The capabilities do not exist anywhere do be able to do this and are not even on the 30 year horizon.

He is currently building them.  He plans to launch them by the end of next year.  This is not another FH.  

9 minutes ago, _Augustus_ said:

I have no doubt he will not meet the dates for either. I think that the cargo runs will be in 2024 and the first crew will be in the 2027-2030 time frame. But what capabilities don't exist exactly????

Agreed.  He has a facility large enoguh to build it in, has tested the fuel tank, and has done super sonic retropropulsion.  Even if the life support is less than that on the ISS, it has such a high capacity it can carry extra.  

Unless he decides to go to the moon instead or something, I'm 100% sure we'll be on Mars before 2030.  

[PB666]

1 minute ago, DAL59 said:

He is currently building them.  He plans to launch them by the end of next year.  This is not another FH.  

No, he plans to test the launch vehicle by the end of next year, there are 3 parts to his system. The automated refueler, the launch vehicle, and the mission vehicle (interplanetary transporter).

[tseitsei89]

2 minutes ago, DAL59 said:

He is currently building them.  He plans to launch them by the end of next year.  This is not another FH.  

Hmm... Falcon Heavy was originally scheduled to first fly in 2013 IIRC. So it was ~4-5 years late.

So even if BFR is new FH it will be ready before 2030 anyway

[PakledHostage]

14 minutes ago, _Augustus_ said:

But what capabilities don't exist exactly????

Haven't we been over this?

[DAL59]

1 minute ago, tseitsei89 said:

Hmm... Falcon Heavy was originally scheduled to first fly in 2013 IIRC. So it was ~4-5 years late.

So even if BFR is new FH it will be ready before 2030 anyway

As I seem to have to say every 5 pages, the FH was not delayed.  It was replaced by the F9 until reusability had been acheived.

The original FH design was not reusable.  

3 minutes ago, tseitsei89 said:

So even if BFR is new FH it will be ready before 2030 anyway

True.  There is no way it would be delayed 11 years.  

Of course, SLS is 13 years behind shcedule... 

[Kerbal7]

39 minutes ago, _Augustus_ said:

I have no doubt he will not meet the dates for either. I think that the cargo runs will be in 2024 and the first crew will be in the 2027-2030 time frame. But what capabilities don't exist exactly????

Right now it's technically possible to land around 1 metric ton on Mars. Like the Curiosity rover. That's the limit right now. NASA is busy bees trying to figure out how to land around 40 metric tons for small human missions of a few people down to Mar's surface. That's the technological frontier on entry decent and landing at Mars at present. Giant BFR ships carrying a hundred people and many tons of colony material to land on Mars at a time is Star Trek. It's not even remotely possible. And isn't going to be anywhere in the close future.

That's just one example of the capabilities lacking.   

Edited February 17, 2018 by Kerbal7

[_Augustus_]

9 minutes ago, Kerbal7 said:

Right now it's technically possible to land around 1 metric ton on Mars. Like the Curiosity rover. That's the limit right now. NASA is busy bees trying to figure out how to land around 40 metric tons for small human missions of a few people down to Mar's surface. That's the technological frontier on entry decent and landing at Mars at present. Giant BFR ships carrying a hundred people and many tons of colony material to land on Mars at a time is Star Trek. It's not even remotely possible. And isn't going to be anywhere in the close future.

That's just one example of the capabilities lacking.   

SpaceX has demonstrated supersonic retropropulsion and landing of Falcon 9 boosters. That is almost exactly the same as a propulsive Mars landing...... just not on Mars.

[tater]

To be fair, Musk said that the 2022/2024 Mars goals are "aspirational," he did not promise to do this.

Making delay predictions based on entirely different systems, in a different time for a company is just as dumb as assuming that the NASA development cost spreadsheet is accurate for commercial space (plugging the F9 stuff into that resulted in a dev cost some 10X higher than what F9 actually cost).

The FH delay was the result of many things, not the least of which was that it was originally intended for a max mass to LEO that F9 now almost delivers in a single stick. In addition, and this is critical when looking at SpaceX and Blue Origin, they have tech company sense of iterative development on short timescales.

The company was not as established as they are now when they promised FH, either. They are truly a going concern at this point, totally different place to be.

 

21 minutes ago, Kerbal7 said:

Right now it's technically possible to land around 1 metric ton on Mars. Like the Curiosity rover. That's the limit right now. NASA is busy bees trying to figure out how to land around 40 metric tons for small human missionsof a few people down to Mar's surface. That's the technological frontier on entry decent and landing at Mars at present.

What NASA knows about supersonic retro-propulsion, they know from SpaceX. At this point, everyone else on Earth is a distant second in this understanding. If NASA wanted to figure out a heavier Mars propulsive lander, they'd consult SpaceX data. That doesn't make Mars landing of high masses easy, but it does say that if SpaceX thinks it's plausible, then it's likely at least plausible.

 

 

Edited February 17, 2018 by tater

[Kerbal7]

2 minutes ago, tater said:

To be fair, Musk said that the 2022/2024 Mars goals are "aspirational," he did not promise to do this.

Making delay predictions based on entirely different systems, in a different time for a company is just as dumb as assuming that the NASA development cost spreadsheet is accurate for commercial space (plugging the F9 stuff into that resulted in a dev cost some 10X higher than what F9 actually cost).

The FH delay was the result of many things, not the least of which was that it was originally intended for a max mass to LEO that F9 now almost delivers in a single stick. In addition, and this is critical when looking at SpaceX and Blue Origin, they have tech company sense of iterative development on short timescales.

The company was not as established as they are now when they promised FH, either. They are truly a going concern at this point, totally different place to be.

 

What NASA knows about supersonic retro-propulsion, they know from SpaceX. At this point, everyone else on Earth is a distant second in this understanding. If NASA wanted to figure out a heavier Mars propulsive lander, they'd consult SpaceX data. That doesn't make Mars landing of high masses easy, but it does say that if SpaceX thinks it's plausible, then it's likely at least plausible.

If we are very, very lucky, In the 2040s we'll have a few tiny science teams on Mars in scattered little bases. Similar to the early exploration of Antarctica. The crews will be rotated on and off the planet. Colonies with many people living and building lives there, it's not happening folks. That's not even a remote possibility. It's Hollywood or a science fiction novel. But if you want to believe it I won't stop you.      

[PB666]

17 minutes ago, Kerbal7 said:

If we are very, very lucky, In the 2040s we'll have a few tiny science teams on Mars in scattered little bases. Similar to the early exploration of Antarctica. The crews will be rotated on and off the planet. Colonies with many people living and building lives there, it's not happening folks. That's not even a remote possibility. It's Hollywood or a science fiction novel. But if you want to believe it I won't stop you.      

My bets are one science team (2 elderly individuals) and 1+ completed sample return.

[sh1pman]

10 minutes ago, Kerbal7 said:

If we are very, very lucky, In the 2040s we'll have a few tiny science teams on Mars in scattered little bases. Similar to the early exploration of Antarctica. The crews will be rotated on and off the planet. Colonies with many people living and building lives there, it's not happening folks. That's not even a remote possibility. It's Hollywood or a science fiction novel. But if you want to believe it I won't stop you.      

You said that like 4 times already, no need to repeat, we get it. Maybe you can show the reasons WHY do you think it's impossible, other than "It's not happening, not even a remote possibility, not in 30 years"? Because @tater, @_Augustus_ and others made some pretty good points which you don't seem to address.

[PB666]

30 minutes ago, tater said:

To be fair, Musk said that the 2022/2024 Mars goals are "aspirational," he did not promise to do this.

Making delay predictions based on entirely different systems, in a different time for a company is just as dumb as assuming that the NASA development cost spreadsheet is accurate for commercial space (plugging the F9 stuff into that resulted in a dev cost some 10X higher than what F9 actually cost).

The FH delay was the result of many things, not the least of which was that it was originally intended for a max mass to LEO that F9 now almost delivers in a single stick. In addition, and this is critical when looking at SpaceX and Blue Origin, they have tech company sense of iterative development on short timescales.

The company was not as established as they are now when they promised FH, either. They are truly a going concern at this point, totally different place to be.

 

What NASA knows about supersonic retro-propulsion, they know from SpaceX. At this point, everyone else on Earth is a distant second in this understanding. If NASA wanted to figure out a heavier Mars propulsive lander, they'd consult SpaceX data. That doesn't make Mars landing of high masses easy, but it does say that if SpaceX thinks it's plausible, then it's likely at least plausible.

 

 

While I have referenced their reentry model, I think the drag and lift components of their model need to be validated first, because the dV they are asserting they need to land is entirely based on how much residual KE they have after dissipating all of the residual interplanetary energy and most -(µ/r) derived from falling from SOI to the point their burns are complete.

[tater]

26 minutes ago, Kerbal7 said:

If we are very, very lucky, In the 2040s we'll have a few tiny science teams on Mars in scattered little bases. Similar to the early exploration of Antarctica. The crews will be rotated on and off the planet. Colonies with many people living and building lives there, it's not happening folks. That's not even a remote possibility. It's Hollywood or a science fiction novel. But if you want to believe it I won't stop you.      

I said nothing at all about colonization. I think colonizing Mars is nonsense, actually. Musk trying to send BFS to Mars in the mid-2020s to 2030s time frame? I think that is possible (cargo variant).

BFS/BFR as a replacement for F9? I think that is a near certainty, barring significant issues with carbon fiber production. They need to make a next gen vehicle, because BO is going to hit the market like a freight train.

[sh1pman]

3 minutes ago, tater said:

BFS/BFR as a replacement for F9? I think that is a near certainty, barring significant issues with carbon fiber production. They need to make a next gen vehicle, because BO is going to hit the market like a freight train.

Did BO announce any cost estimates for their NG launches?

[tater]

BTW, that doesn't mean I think that he'll colonize Mars, I think that just getting there will be a huge achievement with a cargo BFS, perhaps with some carried science experiments, etc. I think they'll find out that it's far harder than they imagine to colonize after just 1 flight.

I actually think that at some point they'll use a FH to try and send some small comsats to Mars as a precursor. If they start manufacturing their own sats, then they need only throw some in polar orbits, along with a single sat with a high gain to act as a relay back to Earth. This is an essential precursor given the way they steer landings.

Just now, sh1pman said:

Did BO announce any cost estimates for their NG launches?

Not yet, but Bezos doesn't $#@!$ around. Their factory is built, and functioning. NG will fly, and it will be competitive, I bet. Bezos is willing to lose money to establish market share, as well.

[Kerbal7]

4 minutes ago, tater said:

I said nothing at all about colonization. I think colonizing Mars is nonsense, actually. Musk trying to send BFS to Mars in the mid-2020s to 2030s time frame? I think that is possible (cargo variant).

BFS/BFR as a replacement for F9? I think that is a near certainty, barring significant issues with carbon fiber production. They need to make a next gen vehicle, because BO is going to hit the market like a freight train.

Hmmm.

You really believe this is less than 15 years away? Mmmkaay.

 

[insert_name]

PAZ got delayed to Wednesday

[Ultimate Steve]

1 minute ago, insert_name said:

PAZ got delayed to Wednesday

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[NSEP]

3 minutes ago, Kerbal7 said:

Hmmm.

You really believe this is less than 15 years away? Mmmkaay.

 

Person from 1954:

Do you really believe this is 15 years away? Mmmkaay.

[Kerbal7]

5 minutes ago, NSEP said:

Person from 1954:

Do you really believe this is 15 years away? Mmmkaay.

There will be better suits. 

[NSEP]

4 minutes ago, Kerbal7 said:

There will be better suits. 

Indeed!