So how about Moon 2020

[p1t1o]

The Moon? 2020? 

What for?

There something we need an astronaut to do that a probe cant?

[NSEP]

1 hour ago, _Augustus_ said:

Dragon will; Orion won't.

Maybe thats going to be the case, but we will have to see the Crew Dragon fly first.

30 minutes ago, p1t1o said:

There something we need an astronaut to do that a probe cant?

A human can do all the work curiosity has done within a week. Humans move faster, think faster, and can do simple tasks alot quicker. Unless someone lands an AI controlled humanoid robot on the Moon.

[p1t1o]

9 minutes ago, NSEP said:

A human can do all the work curiosity has done within a week. Humans move faster, think faster, and can do simple tasks alot quicker. Unless someone lands an AI controlled humanoid robot on the Moon.

But is speed relevant if it is a fraction of the price and infinitely safer? If you can send multiple probes to multiple places for a similar cost?

Does it matter if data takes 6 months to arrive instead of 6 days?

I know projects sometimes have hard deadlines, but balanced against the risk to human life?

Also:

14 minutes ago, NSEP said:

...simple tasks...

 

Im all for going if there is sufficient reason, but its a huge hike in price to send a human and we can do a lot with that cash.

[Ultimate Steve]

Even though we're complaining about not going back by 2020, it could be worse.

In one of my books I read, one guy took a poll of a few hundred people in 1949. The poll had three questions.

1. Will we have a cure to cancer by 2000?

2. Will we have all nuclear powered trains and airplanes by 2000?

3. Will we have landed man on the moon by 2000?

 

To question 1, 88% said yes. To question 2, 63% said yes. But to the last question, only 15% said yes.

Technology has progressed, but most often we are unable to foretell which direction it progresses in.

[Hannu2]

38 minutes ago, NSEP said:

Maybe thats going to be the case, but we will have to see the Crew Dragon fly first.

A human can do all the work curiosity has done within a week. Humans move faster, think faster, and can do simple tasks alot quicker. Unless someone lands an AI controlled humanoid robot on the Moon.

This may be true (except long term observations over years). But one week for one human would cost many orders of magnitude more than flagship class rover. Using same amount of money for dozens of rovers, orbiters, sample returners and maybe more exotic probes, like drones, we could get much more comprehensive understanding of Mars than one short manned mission to one spot can give.

Reason of manned lunar research will be more political prestige than scientific research or economic benefits. Honestly, I do not believe that any projects, which are under planning now, will actually realize. No Space organization have got special funding for manned Moon activity from their governments and there is no reasons to expect it in near future. In such conditions any company would not develop anything special for Moon exploration, because no one will get no other income from Moon than contracts with governments (in our lifetimes).

We have almost heavy launchers, but no landers, surface habitats, research equipment or anything special stuff. It will take at least decade to build, test and certify all them before anyone can even try manned mission.

[kerbiloid]

When every movement of a Martian rover should be first programmed, tested by a sandbox rover and then sent to Mars to be automatically done, taking years to drive 40 km, the rovers probably will be researching Mars for centuries, even slower than humans would do.
And this can't be avoided due to 20..60 min lightspeed delay between the planets.

Comparing velocities of the tele-operated Lunokhods and the programmable Martian rovers, I would expect that a Martian orbital station with the drivers driving the tele-operated Martian rovers in real-time without any programming, would increase the research rate drastically.
_{(TODO: add a car stereo on the rovers)}

Another question is how long can a Martian rover run before its wheel become cinsisting mostly of holes.
As I can see on the photos, after ~40km there are a lot of holes in the metal wheels. If the distance limit is ~100..200 km, it will take a lot of rovers to study the whole Mars.
While 2000...3000 km resource should be enough to drive around any Olympus Mons or get through any Nirgal Vallis.

Edited January 23, 2018 by kerbiloid

[p1t1o]

7 minutes ago, kerbiloid said:

...it will take a lot of rovers to study the whole Mars.

Quite an ambitious mission since we havnt studied the whole of Earth yet

...and considering that a long-term station would mass around the same as several hundred curiosity rovers (ISS=450), I think they will/should rule Mars for a while yet.

 

[kerbiloid]

(Oops, hadn't realized that this is a Moon thread).

Edited January 23, 2018 by kerbiloid

[razark]

7 hours ago, NSEP said:

One of my old books said we would have people on the Moon by 2015.

Well, to be fair, we did.

 

When I was a kid, it was a moonbase by 2000.

[kerbiloid]

Both of them still are, we're just living in a different fork of reality.