Will the number of living humans who have walked on another world fall to zero?

[Joseph Kerman]

https://www.metaculus.com/questions/615/will-the-number-of-living-humans-who-have-walked-on-another-world-fall-to-zero/

Quote

In the current decade, with the deaths of Neil Armstrong (2012), Edgar Mitchell (2016), Eugene Cernan (2017) and John Young (2018), the number has fallen to five living astronauts. Randall Munroe predicted in 2011 that the last man would die between 2023 and 2035 with 90% confidence.

Several countries (as well as the company SpaceX) have announced plans for manned landings on the Moon or on Mars in the 2020s or 2030s, which would increase the number for the first time since 1972.

Will the number fall to zero before the next increase?

 

Edited May 18, 2018 by Joseph Kerman

[LordFerret]

IMO? Yes, more than likely.

[YNM]

6 hours ago, Joseph Kerman said:

with the deaths of

Well, they're walking into another world too 

[kerbiloid]

If there were no Space Race, probably it would be still 0.

[Bill Phil]

Probably. 50+ years is a long time.

[razark]

Yes.  Eventual heat death of the universe makes it inevitable.

[kerbiloid]

If in 1950s there were nowadays computers, so no real need in a space crew, maybe there were never appear such unreliable spaceships like we know.

Edited May 19, 2018 by kerbiloid

[NSEP]

This question in general makes me sad and lose faith in humanity.

[Guest]

No way.

[Ultimate Steve]

2030 is the middle prediction, it seems... It's also right in the middle of my confidence in the BFR. If it works the way it is envisioned (big if) it will be revolutionary. The only issue is timespan... BFR is currently the only serious in development vehicle that could reach another world by 2030. If NASA pays them to go to the moon within a reasonable timeframe, then the number will not reach zero (until extinction). If they have to get to Mars on their own finances... My personal slightly-optimistic prediction is a manned landing in 2029, but that could easily be pushed back to 2031. I'll give it 50/50, but because of the small possibility of moon financing I'll give it 40/60... It will be close.