NASA Human Landing System

[Codraroll]

33 minutes ago, kerbiloid said:

What could Russia do, if somebody has to rent a 1950s ship for flying for 10 years due to the lack of his own.

Evidently, sit idly by while that customer builds their own, better rockets due to the constant price hikes for the service, become reliant on that revenue stream to balance its budget, do nothing to remain competitive versus the new and better rocket, then watch the revenue stream disappear so they're back at square one but a worse financial situation, and then still fly rockets from the 1950s, only now all the other potential customers will rather hire seats on the new rocket instead. And then try to build another version of the 1950s design, because why start innovating after 70 years when it couldn't be done after 30?

The only way for that situation to be salvageable would be if the new rockets all failed so the 1950s rocket was still the best show on the road. And when that situation doesn't manifest, one apparently pretends that it does anyway, because that's presumably more comfortable than facing reality.

[kerbiloid]

 

You may, too.

If Gretchen allows.

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

35 minutes ago, Codraroll said:

why start innovating after 70 years when it couldn't be done after 30?

Or some RU based Billionaire could decide to imitate the commercial success of the impulsive kid from South Africa.  

They enjoyed being the only show in town much like the contractors for SLS... 

Then things changed. 

We have yet to even see the dust from what SX hopes to do, much less have an idea of what the global space economy will look like once it settles. 

[Rakaydos]

4 minutes ago, JoeSchmuckatelli said:

Or some RU based Billionaire could decide to imitate the commercial success of the impulsive kid from South Africa.  

They enjoyed being the only show in town much like the contractors for SLS... 

Then things changed. 

We have yet to even see the dust from what SX hopes to do, much less have an idea of what the global space economy will look like once it settles. 

The RU based billionare would either get appointed to head Rocosmos, or be shut down. Depends on if he's part of the "in" crowd or not.

[kerbiloid]

This fixation on billionaires looks rather descriptive.

Which one builds SLS and Orion?

[Rakaydos]

9 minutes ago, kerbiloid said:

This fixation on billionaires looks rather descriptive.

Which one builds SLS and Orion?

Noone. (insert dig at their progress)

Or if you prefer, Senator Shelby.

Edited August 10, 2021 by Rakaydos

[kerbiloid]

1 minute ago, Rakaydos said:

Noone.

Horrific. Pathetic. No billionaire wants to put money in NASA space projects, they are doomed.

[Rakaydos]

4 minutes ago, kerbiloid said:

Horrific. Pathetic. No billionaire wants to put money in NASA space projects, they are doomed.

We've been saying that about the Senate Launch System for years.

Fortunately there's another player in town now.

Edited August 10, 2021 by Rakaydos

[tater]

1 minute ago, kerbiloid said:

Horrific. Pathetic. No billionaire wants to put money in NASA space projects, they are doomed.

NASA exists to spend money on tech businesses/programs in as many Congressional districts as possible. That's the point of NASA. Anything involving space is an incidental bonus.

Spending money on space is a way to spend money, not make money, the NASA budget in its entirety is lower than the public school system budget in NYC.

[kerbiloid]

That makes me calm about the Russian billionaires role in the space things.

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

Just now, kerbiloid said:

Horrific. Pathetic. No billionaire wants to put money in NASA space projects, they are doomed.

This is the heart of the criticism for the traditional approach.  At least in the US it appears that completely government funded space exploration is declining.*

CN is rapidly iterating government controlled space capacity - but there is some talk about private (yeah, I get it) enterprise space companies being authorized to exist. 

ESA has a problem in that it's a conglomerate of individual nations that generally cannot compete on their own - but if Musk proves profitable and the market exists, some EU type will make a run for the money. 

RU is capable of doing the same - and no, I don't think Roscosmos would roll over any attempt.  Some intrepid individual(s) could start up a private business. 

And why 'billionaires'?   Because the up front costs are staggering.  Yet as you pointed out earlier - one Musk paves the way, all a prospective competitor has to do is copy and paste 

 

 

 

*certainly we will see government funded and academic minded missions... But the completely government funded design of rockets and payload delivering services is on the way out. 

[Beccab]

https://www.gao.gov/assets/b-419783.pdf
 

 GAO report on the HLS decision is out. The [DELETED] appears to refer to an orbital fuel depot, as in expendable starship tanker ala Deep Space Starship

For reference:

[kerbiloid]

10 minutes ago, JoeSchmuckatelli said:

And why 'billionaires'?   Because the up front costs are staggering.  Yet as you pointed out earlier - one Musk paves the way, all a prospective competitor has to do is copy and paste 

You talk about the billionaires, not me.

Except the tiny market of comsats, currently being actively flooded by several LEOsquatters, I don't see any perspectives for space business, it's a purely governmental sphere, and random peaks of business activity  play no role here.

Especially on the Moon.

16 minutes ago, Beccab said:

For reference:

Spoiler

 

[Rakaydos]

4 minutes ago, kerbiloid said:

You talk about the billionaires, not me.

Except the tiny market of comsats, currently being actively flooded by several LEOsquatters, I don't see any perspectives for space business, it's a purely governmental sphere, and random peaks of business activity  play no role here.

Especially on the Moon.

That's a position the US moved away from 2 administrations ago, during the Obama years. Now, goverment agencies (under the executive branch) actively supports space entreprenurship, even as the legaslative branch mandates goverment dollars get spent on endless pork projects to keep 50-year old jobs.

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

9 minutes ago, kerbiloid said:

I don't see any perspectives for space business, it's a purely governmental sphere

 

[kerbiloid]

That's exactly what I said. A market of national and some foreign comsats.

In any case everyone will launch his sats with his own rockets, only the SE Asia will choose.

5 minutes ago, Rakaydos said:

That's a position the US moved away from 2 administrations ago, during the Obama years. Now, goverment agencies (under the executive branch) actively supports space entreprenurship

That's great. I can see the space industry and hotels in the sky right from here.

[Rakaydos]

1 minute ago, kerbiloid said:

 

That's great. I can see the space industry and hotels in the sky right from here.

Branson and Bezos were visible even behind the iron curtain, huh?

Still, they have a ways to go to catch up with SpaceX.

[kerbiloid]

Just now, Rakaydos said:

Branson and Bezos were visible even behind the iron curtain, huh?

Those guys on a funny jumping rocket and weird plane?

They were visible from Boca-Chica, I guess. The Earth curvature, you know.

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

1 minute ago, kerbiloid said:

That's exactly what I said. A market of national and some foreign comsats.

In any case everyone will launch his sats with his own rockets, only the SE Asia will choose.

Well, Brazil, Argentina and South Africa (maybe) could be customers. 

The point I think you are missing is the observation that SX perceives a new market. 

If they're correct - we still don't know what that will look like.  We know about what exists currently (communications, information and academic - note not included military services on purpose) but new / reduced cost capabilities inevitably create opportunities where none existed before 

[Rakaydos]

1 minute ago, kerbiloid said:

Those guys on a funny jumping rocket and weird plane?

They were visible from Boca-Chica, I guess. The Earth curvature, you know.

Yea, us spaceX fans make fun of them too. But that's capitalisim in space, I guess.

[kerbiloid]

1 minute ago, JoeSchmuckatelli said:

We know about what exists currently (communications, information and academic - note not included military services on purpose) but new / reduced cost capabilities inevitably create opportunities where none existed before 

From Tsiolkovsky, right? Sounds familiar.

Just now, Rakaydos said:

But that's capitalisim in space, I guess.

That's investitions in space, and you even don't know whose, how much, and why.

[JoeSchmuckatelli]

8 minutes ago, kerbiloid said:

Tsiolkovsky, right

Smart guys are often ahead of their times 

Although - to be honest I'm analogizing the advent of the Age of Sail if anything. 

Certainly, prior to 1492 sailboats existed - but afterwards deep ocean craft technology progressed in leaps and bounds... And economies never dreamed of were created.  I seriously doubt those early adopters could anticipate the East India Company or the clipper ships of the Americas

Edited August 10, 2021 by JoeSchmuckatelli

[Rakaydos]

3 minutes ago, kerbiloid said:

That's investitions in space, and you even don't know whose, how much, and why.

I mean, the why is pretty obvious, even if I personally dont see what's so big about a suborbital hop in this day and age.

[kerbiloid]

2 minutes ago, Rakaydos said:

the why is pretty obvious

Exactly it isn't.
The "whose" and "how much" are insignificant.

More of that, they have to prove the "why" again and again every financial year.

No one prooves significance of most of other business fields.

[Rakaydos]

9 minutes ago, kerbiloid said:

Exactly it isn't.
The "whose" and "how much" are insignificant.

More of that, they have to prove the "why" again and again every financial year.

No one prooves significance of most of other business fields.

Actually, that's typical for tourisim, space-based or otherwise. Just look at any place that relies on tourisim this year.