U.S. will lag behind in utilization of resources on the Moon.

[Shpaget]

But some missions led by NASA (or even their solo endeavors) do include metal detectors. I honestly don't see why you find it unreasonable for some missions to omit this one particular test in favor of others. There are always cost, mass and energy budgets that need to be considered and of course some instruments get left behind so others can have their chance.

Why this concern about heavy metals in particular? Sure, it would be nice to know the composition of soil on every landing site, but we already know the composition of lunar soil in general.

[Exoscientist]

On 7/29/2023 at 1:29 PM, Shpaget said:

But some missions led by NASA (or even their solo endeavors) do include metal detectors. I honestly don't see why you find it unreasonable for some missions to omit this one particular test in favor of others. There are always cost, mass and energy budgets that need to be considered and of course some instruments get left behind so others can have their chance.

Why this concern about heavy metals in particular? Sure, it would be nice to know the composition of soil on every landing site, but we already know the composition of lunar soil in general.

 Why would it be reasonable to omit it specifically to the lunar South Pole when it is included on every other mission to any other space body by any country, including the U.S. other than this location?

 I mentioned at least two independent orbital missions that observed valuable minerals specifically at the lunar South Pole. Another orbiter mission, GRAIL, observing gravity variations on the Moon,  found intense gravity at the South Pole Aitken impact basin. The researchers suggested it was from the impact of a large asteroid, actually a Ceres-sized dwarf planet,  emplacing heavy metals there. If so then it conceivably could have been an asteroid of the Psyche-type containing trillions of dollars of valuable metals.

 Conceivably, the trillions of dollars of valuable metals speculated to be on Psyche could already be just next door!

  Bob Clark

Edited August 1, 2023 by Exoscientist

[farmerben]

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/asteroid-16-psyche-may-be-worth-more-than-planet-earth-at-10-quintillion-in-fine-metals-180979303/

 

[Shpaget]

1 hour ago, Exoscientist said:

 Why would it be reasonable to omit it specifically to the lunar South Pole when it is included on every other mission to any other space body by any country, including the U.S. other than this location?

You make it sound like the reason not to include it was the fact that it goes to the South Pole. Soil samples have been taken and analyzed multiple times already. We already have a pretty good idea of what more of those test would come up with. This mission is different and tests for something that hasn't been tested nearly as extensively - volatiles, that's what the "V" in the name is for.

Sure, it would be great if we could send an entire analytical lab with every lander that goes anyplace, but there are always restrictions on mass and budget. I'd be willing to bet an entire bag of gummy bears that the main reason metal detectors didn't make the cut was mass budget. 

[Exoscientist]

 

 Too bad about Luna-25 but one of the rovers sent to the lunar South Pole has to succeed. If the precious metals suggested to exist there by multiple lines of evidence is confirmed then we may finally have the “killer app” that not just for spaceflight to LEO brings us low-cost by large number of flights, but even interplanetary flight as well.

See this article on the detections by the LCROSS orbital mission:

 

Prospecting for native metals in lunar polar craters.

January 2014

Warren Platts, Dale Boucher, George Randall Gladstone

ABSTRACT

 One of the more astonishing results of the LCROSS mission were spectra indicating large concentrations ofnative precious metals. We hypothesize that the reported metal concentrations represent electrostatic placerdeposits: we theorize that electrostatic dust transport preferentially favors transport of submicron-sized nativemetal particles that get trapped in permanently shadowed regions (PSRs) within much smaller subareas wheresolar wind wake effects are minimal. We review the LRO LAMP and SSC UV/VIS data and note that severalspectral emission lines in the UV are consistent with the presence of platinum, as well as silver and gold. Wealso conduct a numerical simulation that shows that levitation of submicron-sized gold particles is favoredcompared with dielectric dust particles. We then develop an ore genesis model that predicts a soil massabundance of 0.11% for Au within the ore body trap that is in rough agreement with the estimate of 0.52% forAu based on the LRO LAMP column density observations. We apply the same methodology to Hg, and predicta soil mass abundance of 0.53% Hg, compared with an estimated 0.39% Hg based on LRO LAMP columndensities.Greenfield ore grades are determined initially by remote sensing techniques and ore body genesis modeling;secondly by exploratory drilling and sampling; and finally by close-in ore body delineation (detailed samplingand analysis) to provide a 3D picture of the ore body of interest. Now that we have in hand a large body ofvarious remote sensing data sets, and a predictive ore genesis model, we propose to undertake the second step—exploratory drilling. Since the occurrence of electrostatic placer deposits tends to coincide with deposits ofvolatiles, the upcoming Resource Prospector Mission (RPM) will be in an ideal position to detect native preciousmetals as well as volatiles. However, the Lunar Advanced Volatile Analysis (LAVA) instrument can onlycharacterize volatiles below 70 AMU, whereas Ag, Pt, Au, and Hg atoms range in mass from 108 to 200 AMU.Therefore, we propose that an “X-Ray Spectrometer System” (XSS) be added to the RPM rover as a secondaryscientific payload. The XSS instrument will primarily consist of an X-ray fluorescence detector (XRF) thatoffers the right combination of low mass, low power requirements, high speed, and high accuracy (ppm levelfor heavy precious metals). Finally, since water derived from PSRs will eventually be intended for humanconsumption, the likely high concentration of Hg in PSRs is a potentially grave health hazard, and representsa huge knowledge gap in our understanding of how to work and live on the lunar surface that is left unaddressedby the RPM in its present configuration 

(PDF) Prospecting for native metals in lunar polar craters. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/286162525_Prospecting_for_native_metals_in_lunar_polar_craters [accessed Aug 21 2023].

  Bob Clark

Edited August 22, 2023 by Exoscientist
Clarity

[tater]

3 hours ago, Exoscientist said:

(PDF) Prospecting for native metals in lunar polar craters. Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/286162525_Prospecting_for_native_metals_in_lunar_polar_craters [accessed Aug 21 2023].

This paper (unless I missed others) talks about gold. Says 2.3B kg available on the surface (whole moon).

On Earth, gold mining apparently costs ~$28k/kg. So mining cost, plus transportation would need to be <$28k/kg to make any economic sense.

The recent Chinese sample return cost ~$220M for ~2kg, so we'll need to do a little better than $110M/kg (note we need to get mining and separation eqp there as well).

[tomf]

28k /kg can't be the whole cost of gold mining, there will be exploration costs and licensing costs on top of that to get towards the current price of 60k.

It's that price that the moon has to beat. If gold on the moon came in the form of conveniently stacked gold bars then I guess transport costs would only have to be 2,000 times cheaper than at present for it to make sense.

[farmerben]

There is no need to transport the gold back to Earth.  It is needed in space for high quality electrical connections, and other applications.  

The majority of Earth's gold is used to store value.  An Earthling could own the gold and bank it on the Moon.  The ownership certificate has all the value.  But, I'll leave that business for others.  

Other than water/fuel.  The key resources on the moon will be iron, aluminum, and silicon.  These are available everywhere including the dust fines at the surface.  A magnet can separate magnetite (which is more common on the Moon than on Earth because of our oxygen atmosphere).  These three elements will make up most of our structures and technologies.  

If we could cover the entire dark side of the moon with aluminum radio antennas, we would have one hell of an instrument.  It would become the best radio telescope possible in our solar system.

 

[darthgently]

32 minutes ago, farmerben said:

There is no need to transport the gold back to Earth.  It is needed in space for high quality electrical connections, and other applications.  

The majority of Earth's gold is used to store value.  An Earthling could own the gold and bank it on the Moon.  The ownership certificate has all the value.  But, I'll leave that business for others.  

Other than water/fuel.  The key resources on the moon will be iron, aluminum, and silicon.  These are available everywhere including the dust fines at the surface.  A magnet can separate magnetite (which is more common on the Moon than on Earth because of our oxygen atmosphere).  These three elements will make up most of our structures and technologies.  

If we could cover the entire dark side of the moon with aluminum radio antennas, we would have one hell of an instrument.  It would become the best radio telescope possible in our solar system.

 

There is a lot of titanium on the Moon also and the vacuum should make it easier to work as it reacts joyously, to no useful end, with oxygen when molten.  Actually titanium dioxide for pigmenting bright white paint will likely be quite useful for keeping things cooler in sunlight

Edited August 21, 2023 by darthgently

[tater]

2 hours ago, farmerben said:

There is no need to transport the gold back to Earth.  It is needed in space for high quality electrical connections, and other applications.  

At some point, sure. I see it as chicken and egg, though. It's not a selling point for a cislunar economy unless you have something to offer the people paying for the infrastructure.

[farmerben]

I lunar development it should be funded by lottery tickets, which is a form of stupid tax I don't play.  But, if all the profits went toward new space missions I'd feel good about occasionally contributing.

[StrandedonEarth]

1 hour ago, farmerben said:

I lunar development it should be funded by lottery tickets, which is a form of stupid tax I don't play.  But, if all the profits went toward new space missions I'd feel good about occasionally contributing.

With the prize being a spaceflight ticket?

I started looking at lottery tickets from an investment standpoint: insanely high risk, insanely high potential return

[farmerben]

45 minutes ago, StrandedonEarth said:

With the prize being a spaceflight ticket?

I started looking at lottery tickets from an investment standpoint: insanely high risk, insanely high potential return

It could be.

The investment makes sense from the standpoint of selling tickets, not buying them.  That's why it is usually a state monopoly.

[tater]

2 hours ago, farmerben said:

The investment makes sense from the standpoint of selling tickets, not buying them.  That's why it is usually a state monopoly.

Lotteries are a tax on people who can't do math.

 

[steve9728]

One way of "flattening" costs is through subsequent large-scale production capacity and a highly developed transportation system. It would be better if these resources could be used to produce high-value-added products or services in ways that are easier than on Earth. 

But to implement these simple words seems worth tons of money.

[Exoscientist]

 Chandrayaan-3 already returning exciting, unexpected data:

 

[SunlitZelkova]

@Exoscientist as has been mentioned in the “India is the mouse on the Moon” thread, neither India nor China have plans for lunar resource utilization. The US is in no danger of falling behind.

[Shpaget]

Why would a stable temperature under the surface be something that is unexpected?

I would be much more excited and surprised if it was the other way around.

[Exoscientist]

1 hour ago, Shpaget said:

Why would a stable temperature under the surface be something that is unexpected?

I would be much more excited and surprised if it was the other way around.

 It’s described more in articles describing the experiment. Just a few millimeters below the surface the temperature got to 70 C. It wasn’t expected to get that high. ISRO  scientist speculate large amounts of water allow the near subsurface to retain that heat. The rover does have specific instruments to confirm there really is water there.

 I’m looking forward to the APXS deployment. It can detect heavy metals. It would have world-changing implications if it confirms the high abundances of precious metals there suggested by the LCROSS mission from orbit.

  Bob Clark

   

[darthgently]

5 hours ago, Exoscientist said:

Just a few millimeters below the surface the temperature got to 70 C.

Do you have a link for this?  All I'm finding is the opposite: ~50c at surface and going down steeply at lower depths

[Exoscientist]

Chandrayaan-3's Vikram lander records 70 degrees Celsius on moon surface, ISRO says 'higher than expected'
2 min read 29 Aug 2023, 09:23 AM IST
ISRO on 27 August released a graph of the temperature variation on the lunar surface and a senior scientist of the space agency has expressed surprise over the high temperature recorded on the Moon.
https://www.livemint.com/science/news/chandrayaan3s-vikram-lander-records-70-degrees-celsius-on-moon-surface-isro-says-higher-than-expected-11693280333275.html

  Bob Clark

[Shpaget]

Graph on the link shows 50 degrees at surface and a near perfectly linear drop with depth. I'm not sure what to make of the blip above the surface since measuring the temperature of vacuum is a bit moot.

The major difference with these measurements and the ones you would find on Earth is just how quickly the temperature drops, but that is something I would easily attribute to loose rocks with lots of vacuum between them, as opposed to air and water you would find in Earth soil, both of which are much better at conducting heat.

Don't get me wrong, I'm happy to have more data available, but I don't consider this to be a ground breaking discovery. Well, other than the actual breaking of the lunar ground.

[darthgently]

2 minutes ago, Shpaget said:

Graph on the link shows 50 degrees at surface and a near perfectly linear drop with depth. I'm not sure what to make of the blip above the surface since measuring the temperature of vacuum is a bit moot.

The major difference with these measurements and the ones you would find on Earth is just how quickly the temperature drops, but that is something I would easily attribute to loose rocks with lots of vacuum between them, as opposed to air and water you would find in Earth soil, both of which are much better at conducting heat.

Don't get me wrong, I'm happy to have more data available, but I don't consider this to be a ground breaking discovery. Well, other than the actual breaking of the lunar ground.

Mirrors my thoughts.  I imagine that Moon dust is as good as insulator as ashes and ashes are a great thermal insulator.  Good enough to walk barefoot on coals without harm if the dwell time is kept low and a layer of ash exists in between anyway, ha ha

[Exoscientist]

15 hours ago, Shpaget said:

Graph on the link shows 50 degrees at surface and a near perfectly linear drop with depth. I'm not sure what to make of the blip above the surface since measuring the temperature of vacuum is a bit moot.

The major difference with these measurements and the ones you would find on Earth is just how quickly the temperature drops, but that is something I would easily attribute to loose rocks with lots of vacuum between them, as opposed to air and water you would find in Earth soil, both of which are much better at conducting heat.

Don't get me wrong, I'm happy to have more data available, but I don't consider this to be a ground breaking discovery. Well, other than the actual breaking of the lunar ground.

 I wouldn’t call it groundbreaking. The ISRO scientists just said it was “unexpected”. What would be ground-breaking if  the instruments on the rover for detecting water did find it at high abundance.

 By the way, in regards to the point that nether India nor China have evinced any interest in exploiting the resources on the Moon, it is interesting that India is a signatory to the Outer Space Treaty. The purpose of the treaty was to prevent the wealthy spacefaring countries like U.S., Europe, Japan, Russia, China from exploiting the resources in space to the detriment of the underdeveloped countries, such as India.

 Quite ironic then that India, one of the countries the Outer Space Treaty was designed to protect, may be a country best in line to exploit those resources IF, and that’s a big IF, their rover confirms the large amounts of precious metals suggested by orbital observations. 

 Follow along with me on this hypothetical scenario: suppose India does discover these high levels of precious metals. As a signatory to the Outer Space Treaty they are obligated to share this information with the world. But suppose the amounts they found suggest literally trillions of dollars worth of precious metals. They are still an underdeveloped country. The leadership in their country would understandably ask themselves this question: what is in India’s best interests?

  Bob Clark

 

Edited August 30, 2023 by Exoscientist

[darthgently]

2 hours ago, Exoscientist said:

I wouldn’t call it groundbreaking.

Dad joke warning!

Spoiler

Well, technically, the apparatus did penetrate the surface