Skylon may fly this year, first SSTO spaceplane?

[Naten]

At North Essex Astronomical Society's Starfest III, Alan Bond talks about Reaction Engines Limited (commonly abbreviated as "REL")'s Skylon spaceplane. I'm excited for these SSTO spaceplanes that may change the future of our (as humans/mankind, not saying I run a space program*) space programs worldwide, and more specifically, how they launch payload into orbit. Maybe it'll be like KSP, with SSTO's everywhere. And now, these things will be drones, so pilots' dead weight won't be needed, and life support won't weigh the thing down too.

"The pilot is sort of a bit of a dead payload in most of the vehicles these days. Not literally, I hope." -Alan Bond

(I want this guy to change space exploration. His quotes deserve to be able to do that. )

*Other than KSP, but... ugh, nevermind...

[Streetwind]

This year? What would it be flying with? The S.A.B.R.E. can't be ready yet. Unless I remember it all wrong, I thought they only recently - a few months ago - got the experimental precooler to work well enough to earn further grant money in order to build a scaled down prototype of the actual engine over the next year. That's quite a bit off from having a full scale engine working, much less two fully flight certified ones AND a flight-certified plane to match them.

DISCLAIMER: I am at work and cannot actually watch the video yet If Skylon does fly this year, it would be awesome.

[SargeRho]

There was only one component of SABRE that didn't exist before: The precooler. And that has been tested by now. I assume SABRE might fly this year tho, not Skylon?

[jfull]

Hmmm... this guy (in the video) is not that great of a presenter...

[78stonewobble]

SKYLON will provide aircraft-like access to space to enable:

â—¾Operation from runway to orbit and back

â—¾Order of magnitude reduction in cost vs. existing technology

â—¾400 x improved reliability

â—¾Responsive access to space

All of that would be awesome... If it works as advertised and that I want to see before I believe it.

[Winter Man]

Yeah that won't be built this year. Maybe a small scale test aircraft by next year since the precooler's done, but not a full Skylon. These things take time. I know the guy's been designing it since the Space Shuttle was a baby, but still. Things crop up in development that don't in even the most rigorous planning.

[Sochin]

They got all the technical bugs worked out not operating to a standard for funding. As I see it from there releases its a matter of building the thing know. And once that happens the UK jumps right to the tip of the spear as avaition goes just like it was in 40's and 50's.

[Comrade Jenkens]

The precooler was the only thing that was really stopping things from progressing. Now that they've solved that progress could be quite fast.

This year seems a tad optimistic though.

[Nibb31]

It takes Airbus, Boeing, or Lockheed-Martin 10 years to go from a concept to a flying prototype. These are companies that have supply chains, armies of engineers, and they are working with reliable and proven technology. It takes years just to design stupid things like the landing gear or engine mounts... It takes more years to set up the logistics, to build or adapt a factory, to negociate supplier contracts, and so on. They need a factory, they need trucks, they need cranes...

There are zero subcontractors who have any experience building SABRE engine, their unique airframe, their unique TPS, the avionics... Just developing the tooling, the jigs, the test fixtures, and the software is going to take years. Heck, it even takes years just to hire the workforce that you need to do all those things.

Even if Reaction Engines magically got funding on par with the SLS or the F35 program, there is no way 4 blokes in a shed are going to fly a hypersonic SSTO before the end of the decade.

Edited March 17, 2014 by Nibb31

[Sochin]

Think about it, it should be rather quick from now on. The fuselage design would have been completed fairly quickly awaiting the work on the pre-cooler that was the big stumbling block, now that has been completed its down to construction. It has been estimated that it takes 4-5 months (thats build time of all sub assemblies) to build a B747. Rolls Royce can build a Trent engine in two weeks from on demand components.

[SuperFastJellyfish]

Think about it, it should be rather quick from now on. The fuselage design would have been completed fairly quickly awaiting the work on the pre-cooler that was the big stumbling block, now that has been completed its down to construction. It has been estimated that it takes 4-5 months (thats build time of all sub assemblies) to build a B747. Rolls Royce can build a Trent engine in two weeks from on demand components.

Like Nibb31 said, REL is just a couple of people. Comparing them to Boeing or even Rolls Royce is just silly. Unless a gov't(gov't contracter) steps in and takes over, I don't expect to see Skylon(which is only on paper atm) until the end of 2020s at the very least.

[Sochin]

REL is not a couple of people in a shed actually go and look at them rather than listening to hearsay. They have been working on the Skylon project since 1989 and specifically formed to do that project.

Examples of Timescales:

Spaceship One 9 years 1994 - Burt Rutan went on to say that it took around 3 years full time development to get the programme to winning the X Prize.

Spaceship Two 3 years to first glide test.

So if Burt Rutan's Scalled Composites can do it from his small base (smaller than REL) why can't they, I would hardly call it a matter of stupidity on my part thinking otherwise.

[LordOfTheOrbits]

If I'm not wrong, Skylon is planned to have its maiden flight in 2019, so that will still take some time. I don't remember any space launch vehicle that got finished multiple years before schedule.

However, I wouldn't realistically assume that it flies before 2021, because there is still a high number of things that need to be developed, so it would be very unlikely that there aren't any further problems with the developments of some components.

[Nibb31]

Think about it, it should be rather quick from now on. The fuselage design would have been completed fairly quickly awaiting the work on the pre-cooler that was the big stumbling block, now that has been completed its down to construction.

Skylon's fuselage structure and outer skin is unique and totally new and unproven. It also doesn't use modern construction techniques. Airliner fuselages are typically cylinders that are bolted together. The same tooling and transport jigs are used for all of the sections. It uses all sorts of exotic materials that nobody has much experience with.

http://www.flightglobal.com/news/articles/skylon-space-plane-places-huge-demands-on-exotic-structural-366179/

It took years for Boeing to industrialize the 787 carbon-fibre fuselage, and it's still much more conventional than Skylon.

It has been estimated that it takes 4-5 months (thats build time of all sub assemblies) to build a B747. Rolls Royce can build a Trent engine in two weeks from on demand components.

And Airbus can build four A380s per month.

But Airbus and Boeing can do that because they have decades of experience in supply chain management and manufacturing. They have thousands of experienced workers in multiple factories. They have logistic lines in place and approved suppliers.

If they had to start from scratch, hiring and training the workforce on new materials and manufacturing techniques, laying out the factories, negociating with subcontractors, designing the tooling, writing the manufacturing and test procedures, etc... It wouldn't take 4 to 5 months. It took Boeing or Airbus decades to develop their manufacturing capability.

[Nibb31]

REL is not a couple of people in a shed actually go and look at them rather than listening to hearsay. They have been working on the Skylon project since 1989 and specifically formed to do that project.

They were four blokes in a shed for 20 years.

They do seem to have been hiring over the last couple of years. I was unable to find an employee headcount, but LinkedIn has them in the 51-200 employee category, which makes them a small business. They seem to be renting a couple of offices in a Culham Innovation Center in Abingdon, UK. They don't have a production center, a test flight facility, or even a runway for that matter.

So ok, they are not shed-based, but even as a pure R&D organization, you can't really put them on the same level as Boeing or BAE Systems.

So if Burt Rutan's Scalled Composites can do it from his small base (smaller than REL) why can't they, I would hardly call it a matter of stupidity on my part thinking otherwise.

Call me back when Burt Rutan puts something in orbit.

[wasmic]

I'd also say that this year sounds quite optimistic, but from what I've heard, a 2019 maiden voyage would not be unrealistic. Come to think of it, how many Skylon flights would it take to launch something capable of a Moon landing and return into orbit?

[Seret]

You won't even get Sabre this year, Skylon would be at least a decade behind that. There's no funding for Skylon yet, that will only come once they've proved Sabre works.

[Nibb31]

I'd also say that this year sounds quite optimistic, but from what I've heard, a 2019 maiden voyage would not be unrealistic. Come to think of it, how many Skylon flights would it take to launch something capable of a Moon landing and return into orbit?

It's not a question of how many Skylon flights would be needed to fly to the Moon. It's a matter of how much effort would be needed to get Skylon to fly and if it is even possible.

[MBobrik]

this year ? Only by using magic, time machine or if our entire civilization stops doing anything else, or any combination thereof.

[Naten]

This year? What would it be flying with? The S.A.B.R.E. can't be ready yet.

They've done tests on it and the precooler, it should work out with some time.

There was only one component of SABRE that didn't exist before: The precooler. And that has been tested by now. I assume SABRE might fly this year tho, not Skylon?

The SABRE already works in the tests they've done on it, but I can't be sure about your question. Maybe a big balsa wood model will fly.

Hmmm... this guy (in the video) is not that great of a presenter...

At least his quotes are awesome.

-snip-

Yes, they do take time, and probably not this year. Note the "may" (even though it's not in italics ) in the title. I'd guess maybe 2014 in a model form (probably pretty small scale, mainly as a glider testing thingie). As for the full Skylon, 2015~2016, maybe even 2018. Again, I can't be sure.

-snip-

The ESA signed what I think was something like a ~1.6 billion British pound (approx. ~32-34 US Dollars) contract, that the ESA's primary launcher would be Skylon, and that was [relative(ly)] a lot of funding. The contract probably was having huge expectations, so we really can't be sure.

-snip-

Yes, the precooler was one of the only issues with the thing that was big/major enough to "roadblock" the whole idea. 'dat air is so hot it'd make the best precoolers out there that could work with the engine go all 'splodey on yer speesplaen.

-snip-

I dunno, but they've gone too far to go lazy on it.

-snip-

Yes, see my above time estimates.

-snip-

Yes, but the thing's design is like ~50 years old, it's derived from HOTOL, which the British Aerospace Thingy "Or Whatever It's Called" worked on with them. I dunno.

And also, it's kinda saddening that they're working in some old hangar/warehouse thingy.

-snip-

Yeah, and this first spaceflight probably won't even be to orbit. How hard can it be? Very hard. But they've got most of the technical issues sorted out and it's somewhat ready to go.

-snip-

IDK LOL, but testbed models will probably go up pretty soon.

-snip-

What I said above a thousand times. Ugh, this is hard. Quoting ~20 people (I think that may be exact, actually ) is hard work... ;_;

-snip-

I dunno. At least the poor people are trying.

I'd also say that this year sounds quite optimistic, but from what I've heard, a 2019 maiden voyage would not be unrealistic. Come to think of it, how many Skylon flights would it take to launch something capable of a Moon landing and return into orbit?

You won't even get Sabre this year, Skylon would be at least a decade behind that. There's no funding for Skylon yet, that will only come once they've proved Sabre works.

ESA's contracts funded them. How else would they get through the SABRE's Precooler's research-and-development (R&D) phase alive?

Also, the SABRE works as far as they've tested it... but you're entitled to your opinion.

-snip-

Should be possibru with enough boosters and enough struts.

[Kryten]

The SABRE already works in the tests they've done on it, but I can't be sure about your question. Maybe a big balsa wood model will fly.

What tests? They've only just been able to build a pre-cooler, they've never produced a full SABRE cycle engine at any scale.

[xenomorph555]

I have no doubt that the sabre will be completed and ready by 2016-17, skylon on the other hand... early 20's, IF the government stops being a bunch of short sighted fools and funds it, and while skylon itself may fail the technology from it will advance the aerospace industry immensely. Spoken from a proud brit who hopes this project comes to light and isn't knicked by America or China. Britain has a large and proud history in the air industry, hopefully it isn't sold like the jet engine. Xeno out!

[Nuke]

the whole point of the presentation is to build publicity and get investors on board. perhaps find buisness partners as well. i could imagine rolls royce being contracted to build the engines. rel by itself just has the capability to design and test the engine components, and possibly produce a prototype, but they will need to contract a manufacturer like rolls to take care of the mass production. then get scaled composites to build the airframe. i cant think of anyone in the uk with the knowhow to build it, given the exotic composites involved, so scaled is the perfect choice. of course that means virgin galactic will end up with a couple skylons

Edited March 17, 2014 by Nuke

[CaptainKipard]

Skylon wont wont fly this year. They still haven't even made a scale prototype flight, which they plan to.

[Nuke]

i never saw anything in the source that indicated it would. i think the op is sensationalizing.