Has anyone else used Drake Equation calculators?

[Red Iron Crown]

I am arguing against the latter suggestion. It would mean Earth is unique, but there is no evidence to suggest that it is unique.

And you think it is plausible that physics conditions on Earth (that gave rise to life on Earth) are unique in the universe.

Same way that i can't put a mathematically valid estimate on the chance of me being hit by lightning. Yet i can be pretty sure i don't need to worry about it.

The fact that something low probability has occurred does not imply that physics are somehow different. If I have a pair of dice, it is somewhat unlikely that I'll roll snake eyes in a single roll. If I do, it doesn't mean that physics or probability theory was wrong in predicting that it's a low probability event. Being struck by lightning is, as you say, a low probability event. Did the people who have been struck by lightning have different physics applied to them?

Everything we know about the occurrence of life from inanimate matter suggests that some low probability events have to occur for it to happen. Earth is just a location where that low probability chain of events has occurred. It has the same rules of physics as anywhere else, as far as we know. Has it happened elsewhere? Possibly, perhaps even probably, but we don't know enough to say that it's a given.

[rtxoff]

Every time you leave your house there is an chance of aprox. 1 to 10.000.000 that you are going to be struck down by lightning. Every time you play lottery (at least for the Austrian one it's ture) the chances are aprox. the same that you will win the jackpot. However nearly all people believe that winning in the lottery is far easier then to be struck by lightning.

Very interesting stuff.

[magnemoe]

The fact that something low probability has occurred does not imply that physics are somehow different. If I have a pair of dice, it is somewhat unlikely that I'll roll snake eyes in a single roll. If I do, it doesn't mean that physics or probability theory was wrong in predicting that it's a low probability event. Being struck by lightning is, as you say, a low probability event. Did the people who have been struck by lightning have different physics applied to them?

Everything we know about the occurrence of life from inanimate matter suggests that some low probability events have to occur for it to happen. Earth is just a location where that low probability chain of events has occurred. It has the same rules of physics as anywhere else, as far as we know. Has it happened elsewhere? Possibly, perhaps even probably, but we don't know enough to say that it's a given.

Problem here is that life started on earth within 100 million years for it to be even possible.

This make it very probably that life appears easy or it come from space. Else it would be probably that life should have taken far longer say 500-1000 million years before starting even if lucky.

Compare the chance of winning big is far larger if you have gambled all your life than the first time you buy a lottery ticket.

[Red Iron Crown]

Problem here is that life started on earth within 100 million years for it to be even possible.

This make it very probably that life appears easy or it come from space. Else it would be probably that life should have taken far longer say 500-1000 million years before starting even if lucky.

Compare the chance of winning big is far larger if you have gambled all your life than the first time you buy a lottery ticket.

False analogy is false. Rolling snake eyes on the first attempt does not mean that the odds of rolling it are good. Or using your lottery analogy, if there are a million people buying tickets for the first time and one wins, does that affect the odds?

[PB666]

http://phys.org/news/2016-04-limits-uniqueness.html

[Darnok]

Define civilization... I can name few that are here on Earth today, and if we look at history that number grows.

[kerbiloid]

Drake equation is not an answer, it's an illustration of the question.
Its coefficients by definition can become known only a posteriori, when the answer has been given.
So, it's not to be used, it was to be thought about.