Red Dragon confirmed!!

[Ozymandias_the_Goat]

what musk says/wants and what he does are not necessarily the same thing. They might make it, but probably won't.

[tater]

Spaceflightnow article says that no money is changing hands, NASA only offers technical support.

[Kryten]

15 minutes ago, tater said:

Spaceflightnow article says that no money is changing hands, NASA only offers technical support.

Unfunded space act agreement in other words. Be interesting to see if the milestones for that reach the public.

[StrandedonEarth]

3 hours ago, sevenperforce said:

The notion that this could be used for sample return, on the other hand, are quite ill-conceived. The Dragon V2 does not have nearly enough propellant for direct SSTO ascent from the Martian surface.

I believe the sample-return plan was to have a small rocket inside the Red dragon, launching through where the docking port would be on top

[PB666]

18 minutes ago, StrandedonEarth said:

I believe the sample-return plan was to have a small rocket inside the Red dragon, launching through where the docking port would be on top

And would need to be captured by a flyby and returned. 

[cubinator]

3 hours ago, tater said:

By "SLS people," I was thinking more about Congress. It starts making SLS/Orion look pretty pointless...'and they won't have that.

 

Another space race? That'd work wonders for getting NASA to get their program moving and get some humans a little further than ankle-deep in the cosmic ocean we've been throwing robots at for the past 40+ years.

As for this whole "Red Dragon" thing, it seems like it'll be just a test flight to see how it works (man, SpaceX really seems to have a lot of money to throw around like that chucking rockets everywhere and not worrying if they blow up), but it'll also serve to get the public all hyped about their Mars goals they always talk about. "Hey, we landed this thing on Mars! Come fund us so someday we can land YOU on Mars too!" Actually showing that they really can land a payload on Mars makes their "humans on Mars in 2026" talk a lot more credible.

[AngelLestat]

More info here:
http://www.theverge.com/2016/4/27/11514844/spacex-mars-mission-date-red-dragon-rocket-elon-musk

I dont know what changes will have this red dragon..  I would like a dragon using methane engines to test once there ISRU and refly (just a bit to land again).
But the most sure that this step will come later, right now they had super dracos engines that only work with hypergolics.
But maybe a low scale ISRU can be done. I am sure that elon musk will not waste this opportunity to learn everything he can.
If they achieve this, it will be the vehicle more big and massive landed on mars..  in a first try..  for a private company..  something that will hit in the face to many government agencies.

[kerbiloid]

Falcon is already reusable? Dragon V2 already has been launched? Maglev trains already run between cities? Wall accumulators have already replaced something?

Edited April 28, 2016 by kerbiloid

[insert_name]

1 hour ago, AngelLestat said:

...in a first try...  

hopefully, that hasn't happened yet

[AngelLestat]

33 minutes ago, insert_name said:

hopefully, that hasn't happened yet

they landed on land in their first try.

[fredinno]

7 hours ago, Kartoffelkuchen said:

Hello? You stated this already the second third time now. And that doesn't make it more correct. Dragon V2 *has* solar panels directly attached to the side of the dragon trunk!

 

Please actually inform yourself @fredinno before you post something like this!

You have to eject it to land...

7 hours ago, sevenperforce said:

Only a few days of power post-landing, since the trunk can't survive a landing. Then again, it won't be hard to add batteries or a fuel cell to the payload.

The notion that this could be used for sample return, on the other hand, are quite ill-conceived. The Dragon V2 does not have nearly enough propellant for direct SSTO ascent from the Martian surface.

Yeah, and Fuel Cells and batteries would still stop providing power after about a week or so.

And granted, it COULD be used for Sample return on a SLS- but the mods needed are so great the only real old part would be the return capsule.

6 hours ago, tater said:

By "SLS people," I was thinking more about Congress. It starts making SLS/Orion look pretty pointless...'and they won't have that.

It's not manned. This is pretty much a huge space probe. Impressive, but without any instruments, mostly just a stunt.

6 hours ago, cantab said:

I don't think anything is confirmed other than "Elon wants to drop a probe on Mars in 2018."

As for powering a scientific payload, couldn't it open the hatch and deploy solar arrays that way, if the exterior aerodynamics need to be unchanged?

I doubt you can add very big solar panels like that.

In any case, it won't be facing the Sun when the Sun moves behind the Dragon spacecraft, so Power is the primary problem here.

2 hours ago, cubinator said:

Another space race? That'd work wonders for getting NASA to get their program moving and get some humans a little further than ankle-deep in the cosmic ocean we've been throwing robots at for the past 40+ years.

It would be a lot cheaper for Congress to regulate SpaceX off its Mars plans

6 hours ago, LetsGoToMars! said:

what musk says/wants and what he does are not necessarily the same thing. They might make it, but probably won't.

They have NASA support, which lends more credibility...

5 hours ago, tater said:

Spaceflightnow article says that no money is changing hands, NASA only offers technical support.

Source?

2 hours ago, AngelLestat said:

More info here:
http://www.theverge.com/2016/4/27/11514844/spacex-mars-mission-date-red-dragon-rocket-elon-musk

I dont know what changes will have this red dragon..  I would like a dragon using methane engines to test once there ISRU and refly (just a bit to land again).
But the most sure that this step will come later, right now they had super dracos engines that only work with hypergolics.
But maybe a low scale ISRU can be done. I am sure that elon musk will not waste this opportunity to learn everything he can.
If they achieve this, it will be the vehicle more big and massive landed on mars..  in a first try..  for a private company..  something that will hit in the face to many government agencies.

You can't, you would need a new propulsion system, pushing the landing into 2022.

And ISRU is not happening either. How do you provide power to a capsule with no solar cells?

In any case, NASA has a ISRU experiment turning CO2 to O2 (which is most of the weight of H2 or CH4 ISRU fuel) on Mars 2020.

 

But it will be impressive, the 3T mass is leaps and bounds above Curiosity.

I'm just not really impressed because it's a 3T capsule with no real capability on Mars without a power source.

16 minutes ago, AngelLestat said:

they landed on land in their first try.

They haven't gone to space yet on a V2, they haven't land a V2 propulsively yet either.

In any case, I think SpaceX should move this to 2020 or 2022, to allow for time to test V2 landing systems on Earth a few times before going to mars.

Bonus for a high-speed test on FH after a circumlunar flight, which should also generate some publicity.

[insert_name]

42 minutes ago, AngelLestat said:

they landed on land in their first try.

that happened on earth though, there is not a 100% chance of success on any mission, especially a mars mission

[CatastrophicFailure]

50 minutes ago, fredinno said:

In any case, it won't be facing the Sun when the Sun moves behind the Dragon spacecraft, so Power is the primary problem here.

Really, of all the engineering challenges posed by this mission, this is probably the least. Precision landings are one of the main points of the Red Dragon concept, so simply landing with the door pointing south (or north) should be comparatively simple. And kerballing up a solar panel to pop out of the door isn't exactly unproven technology...

 

53 minutes ago, fredinno said:

In any case, I think SpaceX should move this to 2020 or 2022...

Realistically, this is probably what will happen.

But as earlier, I'll stick to optimism until circumstances dictate otherwise.

[AngelLestat]

1 hour ago, fredinno said:

You can't, you would need a new propulsion system, pushing the landing into 2022.

why you need a new propulsion system?

Quote

And ISRU is not happening either. How do you provide power to a capsule with no solar cells?

In any case, NASA has a ISRU experiment turning CO2 to O2 (which is most of the weight of H2 or CH4 ISRU fuel) on Mars 2020.

You do always the same, you project your own limitations to find a solution into others, in this case spacex. 
You can even open the door and deploy a solar panel.
As I said.. they could do a mini ISRU experiment for the first mission.
This is a special dragon "mod" for this mission. 

Quote

They haven't gone to space yet on a V2, they haven't land a V2 propulsively yet either.

2018, there is still 2 years and some months of time..  We are not talking about nasa.

35 minutes ago, insert_name said:

that happened on earth though, there is not a 100% chance of success on any mission, especially a mars mission

Nasa tries to achieve 100%, but trying that, they take 10 years of simple that becomes in harder strategies to solve a problem which consume a huge budget, after that time and years, they only achieve 80% failure safety. 
I guess spacex could do it with 70% or 80% in 2 years. 

Edited April 28, 2016 by AngelLestat

[tater]

http://spaceflightnow.com/2016/04/27/spacex-announces-plan-to-send-mission-to-mars-in-2018/

(source)

 

[Darnok]

If they succeed Red Dragon can be the way to supply Mars colony.

[SargeRho]

15 minutes ago, Darnok said:

If they succeed Red Dragon can be the way to supply Mars colony.

That would be inefficient compared to the MCT. Why send a partially expendable rocket for a few tonnes of cargo, if you can send a huge fully reusable one for 100 tonnes?

[Darnok]

3 minutes ago, SargeRho said:

That would be inefficient compared to the MCT. Why send a partially expendable rocket for a few tonnes of cargo, if you can send a huge fully reusable one for 100 tonnes?

Wait... 100t to Mars? How?
If Falcon Heavy would be fully reusable it should be cheap to send Red Dragon to Mars.
Splitting resources over few vehicles is more secure approach than loading everything on single craft.

[fredinno]

1 hour ago, CatastrophicFailure said:

Really, of all the engineering challenges posed by this mission, this is probably the least. Precision landings are one of the main points of the Red Dragon concept, so simply landing with the door pointing south (or north) should be comparatively simple. And kerballing up a solar panel to pop out of the door isn't exactly unproven technology...

 

Realistically, this is probably what will happen.

But as earlier, I'll stick to optimism until circumstances dictate otherwise.

Ok, so let's say you could build a solar panel popping out of the door?

Can you do it and fund instruments by 2018? Maybe.

The bigger problem that I haven't posed is that popping a solar panel out of a hatch provides you with power, but still very limited power, especially to the max payload of 4T.

I don't expect this to have any more than the most basic sensors and insruments.

And definitely not ISRU, which tends to consume lots of energy.

2 minutes ago, SargeRho said:

That would be inefficient compared to the MCT. Why send a partially expendable rocket for a few tonnes of cargo, if you can send a huge fully reusable one for 100 tonnes?

Development cost? But really, sending 4T for a launch window openning every 2 years is probably insufficient.

And if you have a Mars HAB, you can use the same system to land far more cargo on Mars.

1 hour ago, tater said:

http://spaceflightnow.com/2016/04/27/spacex-announces-plan-to-send-mission-to-mars-in-2018/

(source)

 

Thanks.

1 hour ago, AngelLestat said:

why you need a new propulsion system?

You do always the same, you project your own limitations to find a solution into others, in this case spacex. 
You can even open the door and deploy a solar panel.
As I said.. they could do a mini ISRU experiment for the first mission.
This is a special dragon "mod" for this mission. 

2018, there is still 2 years and some months of time..  We are not talking about nasa.

Nasa tries to achieve 100%, but trying that, they take 10 years of simple that becomes in harder strategies to solve a problem which consume a huge budget, after that time and years, they only achieve 80% failure safety. 
I guess spacex could do it with 70% or 80% in 2 years. 

Oh, hey, we argue again....

You need a new propusion system because you are using a new fuel. Should be fairly obvious.

You probably also need new tanks that are larger, since CH4 is less dense than hypergol.

 

...I've been over this. How big can you buid a solar panel out of a hatch? Considering everything else will likely have to use the same hatch,you're severely limited in capability.

As I said, it's nothing more than a publicity stunt. If I was SpaceX, I would buy a proper lander if I wanted to testISRu, or host a experiment on a space probe.

 

...The insanely long development period of the Falcon Heavy (a rocket which is basically 2 F9 cores strapped to a F9) does not incite confidence.

SpaceX is not very good at meeting deadlines. Neither is the aerospace industry in general, so

 

...lol, and if SpaceX fails a publicity stunt Mars landing, it would be the greatest publicity failure in the history of mankind. It's not like a F9 core either, each launch costs ~500 Million. Elon can only fund so many, and I think he would only ever do it once. Not to mention SpaceX's failure will be well-ingrained in memory, as Mars Transfer windows go every 2 years or so.

In any case, what you are describing is "better, faster, cheaper". It was a great time, but the public (and government) hated it and felt it was a waste of money, and killed it.

[fredinno]

6 minutes ago, Darnok said:

Wait... 100t to Mars? How?
If Falcon Heavy would be fully reusable it should be cheap to send Red Dragon to Mars.
Splitting resources over few vehicles is more secure approach than loading everything on single craft.

100T to Mars on MCT. Adding up the mass of the lander probably means 80T, but considering SpaceX is going for a all-up Mars landing strategy with MCT (as far as we can tell, that's why it's a COLONY TRANSPORTER)...

[SargeRho]

25 minutes ago, Darnok said:

Wait... 100t to Mars? How?
If Falcon Heavy would be fully reusable it should be cheap to send Red Dragon to Mars.
Splitting resources over few vehicles is more secure approach than loading everything on single craft.

The MCT, which Musk said he'd reveal this summer, is a fully reusable architecture with the goal of transporting 100 tons to Mars per flight, The Red Dragon missions' purpose for SpaceX is to gather data for the development of the MCT, and they're bringing along some NASA instruments, for science and probably some funding.

[Streetwind]

Here is an actual primary source for the "no money changed hands" claim that spaceflightnow reported on. Quoting the relevant paragraph:

"Among the many exciting things we’re doing with American businesses, we’re particularly excited about an upcoming SpaceX project that would build upon a current 'no-exchange-of-funds' agreement we have with the company. In exchange for Martian entry, descent, and landing data from SpaceX, NASA will offer technical support for the firm’s plan to attempt to land an uncrewed Dragon 2 spacecraft on Mars."

This also sheds a bit of light about what science payloads will fly on this mission: basically, none. At least no official NASA ones. The Dragon V2 itself *is* the science payload.

SpaceX has a vested interest in testing martian EDL, because they have plans to do it a lot. The world's premier authority on Mars EDL, with more landed missions than any other organization, is NASA. So while SpaceX could test things themselves, or rely on laboratory studies (not really acceptable when you want to ferry humans), a collaboration with NASA is a prime opportunity. Nowhere else can they find more know-how about getting it right the first try (just remind yourself what a Hail-Mary maneuver Curiosity actually was). SpaceX wants that know-how. With a destination as infrequently accessible and expensive to reach as Mars, their usual approach of just throwing stuff repeatedly until it sticks is a suboptimal approach.

And what does NASA get in return? They get to see all the results of SpaceX's experiment. NASA has been studying how to land larger payloads on Mars for decades now. The biggest payload landed to date is maybe 1/7th of an empty Dragon V2, and probably 1/10th of the configuration that will end up landing on Mars. Progress has been incremental at best, and even the newest ways NASA is studying today could take maybe two or three tons more than before. And suddenly, there's this commercial company that says "hey guys, we think we have a way we can land an order of magnitude more mass on Mars than anyone has ever attempted, and we also think this method scales at least another order of magnitude beyond that. Can you help us out a bit? We'll share everything." Of course NASA jumps on that. They have no funds for anything even remotely like that (which is why Red Dragon won't carry any science payloads), but here they're getting it essentially for free, in a "you scratch my back and I'll scratch yours" type of deal. Undoubtedly they're as excited about the opportunity as SpaceX is. And since it's an unfunded agreement with a commercial partner, Congress can't even meddle in their affairs in this case.

 

Oh, and an amusing bit of fan speculation from the SpaceX subreddit... what if NASA, repeatedly criticized for having no proper path forward beyond SLS and Orion and its limited capabilities, is intentionally not bothering to plan one, because they already know all the details of MCT and what it can do for them?   I mean, it's quite unlikely to be true, since NASA's strategic plans work on somewhat different timescales than the short time that the MCT project will have had a useful form even internally. But this partnership here outlines pretty well what a few logically minded people have been saying for years: a.) SpaceX isn't going to Mars without NASA, or in competition with NASA, but rather as a collaborative effort; and b.) NASA stands to gain just as much from this partnership as SpaceX does, getting access to new technologies and capabilities that fill gaps in the agency's own. Mark my words: I will buy a hat for the express purpose of eating it if the first MCT flight isn't a NASA mission!

Edited April 28, 2016 by Streetwind

[popeter45]

the only query i have about red dragon is contamination

all previous mars mission have been build in a massive clean room and sealed in a landing vessel to avoid contamination

as far a we know the dragon capsule is exposed to the elements at launch and from that could bring bacteria to the surface of mars in a much higher quantity then any previous mission

[Streetwind]

2 minutes ago, popeter45 said:

as far a we know the dragon capsule is exposed to the elements at launch and from that could bring bacteria to the surface of mars in a much higher quantity then any previous mission

That is a fair point. Now I wonder if they won't try to encapsulate it...

[Nibb31]

I think that if you want to get 4-tons of payload to the surface of Mars, there are much better ways than to hack a crew vehicle.

You would be far better off with a specialized vehicle. You only need the heatshield and the SuperDracos. Pretty much all the rest of the vehicle is wasted mass and limits the capabilities. You would be better off without the pressure vessel and aeroshell in the first place. That would allow you to add as much science equipment as you want, solar panels, and ever deploy rovers. And in the end, you would end up with a lander that looks like Viking or MPL.

The only advantage of Red Dragon compared to a SuperDraco-derived specialized lander is PR. It makes the false pretense that Dragon could be used to send people to Mars, which it most certainly can't, at least not on its own, and not with any return capability.

I don't buy the 2018 date. SpaceX hardly ever delivers on-time. They regularly throw out ideas and abandon them when they figure out that it's going to be harder than they thought, or they lose focus as they turn to some other of Musk's crazy ideas or get forced back into the reality of their customer backlog.

This is going to require a Falcon Heavy at least, probably with the Raptor upper-stage, and a Dragon V2, none of which have flown yet. The Dragon is going to need a lot of modifications, including navigation systems (currently GPS-based). And there is also the planetary protection problem that popeter45 evoked and will probably make it a non-starter when NASA gets involved.