SunlitZelkova

I got accepted to a university in Japan.

Xinhua reports the launch was successful. No photos or time provided. EDIT- Launch of the spaceplane.

Yes, but there is no guarantee it will be worse either. People opposed to my stance are acting like “we don’t know if life will be less advanced than now” means “life will not be more advanced than now”.

https://x.com/planet4589/status/1734272637226856878?s=46&t=Jd73T2beq0JLNtwTy1uR5A A little interesting tidbit- a GBI interceptor test conducted two days ago was against an IRBM class target dropped from a C-17. This was probably intended to test the ability to detect and intercept air launched ballistic missiles, given China has now put them into limited service.

Underneath the propaganda, there were a lot of people working hard to get to space, just like in America. I believe there are today too, and that beneath the Rogozin hoopla and nationalist chest thumping, there are space enthusiasts just like you and I trying to navigate their dysfunctional government to do stuff in space, not unlike how it took years of redesigns and political negotiation for the US to build its own space station, all the while while their Soviet counterparts would doing groundbreaking long duration flights on Salyut and Mir. I would not want to have a monument to NASA, Apollo, and Shuttle workers ridiculed. I don’t think it is right to do so with other countries’ space programs. I’ll leave you with this. EDIT- I’m actually going to delete the tweet because it might be considered politics. But the gist of it is that a British submarine captain met his Soviet counterpart at the end of the Cold War, and was surprised to learn he wasn’t a caricature of a brainwashed Marxist stooge, but a regular sailor like he was.

https://ru.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/QN-506 Type 59 (T-54) chassis, basically BMP Terminator Chinese style.

The K-Pg extinction event happened in a matter of hours, not decades (as far as the spread of its climatic effects go). We exist because of it. Yes, there are no more dinosaurs or big insects, but there are space stations and MRIs. Maybe the next species will solve the problems of conflict and societal malaise. Again, I’m just playing devil’s advocate here and saying life will go on, just not in the form it takes now.

Okay, I see. Thanks.

Global warming is also incredibly good for life as a whole. It would allow greater evolution if the environment was trashed and species were moved out of their comfort zone and forced to survive or die. I say this as a counter to people who think global warming threatens “life” as a whole. It certainly threatens species that exist now, but life will go on even with worst case scenario ecological collapse.

This is where philosophy comes in I like Philip K. Dick’s assertion that you can never really get out of the “maze” on your own. If we were to discover we were in a simulation and then we were suddenly “let out” by whoever made it, we would probably just be stuck in another simulation (or layer of the same simulation). Does it matter what is real? Can we know what is real? What makes something real? These questions have been pondered for decades. I like the suggestion that reality is not a fact or physical characteristic of something, but rather its psychological importance and emotional characteristics. A compassionate android nurse is a real human being in comparison to an evil murderer. A mechanical toy dog is a real animate thing for a group of lonely elderly people compared to the plasticky, made-for-mass-consumption “reality TV” they might have used for entertainment before. So in that sense, if you really enjoy life and can appreciate the things in it (and have things to appreciate in it), this world is “real” for you. But if you have lost everyone you love and been kicked to the curb by society? This world becomes more meaningless, more unreal, and the notion of a better one- whether it be the world outside the simulation or the notion of the afterlife in paradise- becomes more important, more real. For some people it’s in between. As for whether it even matters whether we are in one or not? It depends on what you think about what the “true” reality might look like. If you are a regular ole guy who thinks it is the same as exists now, it might not matter. But for some, simulation theory and its older cousin, the religious notion that existence is cursed or imperfect from its original pure state, is a way of escaping whatever tragedies have occurred in their life, or the misery that exists in the world. For them it matters because the idea there is a true reality out there is somewhat akin to the concept of the afterlife- a promise of a better world than this one.

https://x.com/cnspaceflight/status/1734617114445529565?s=46&t=Jd73T2beq0JLNtwTy1uR5A Just as X-37B prepares to launch again, China’s spaceplane will be launching too! That December 14 is China time, so these will be launching on the same day. It will be interesting to see who returns to Earth first and after how long.

Okay, so I’m trying to figure out if a Japanese rocket could take a Soyuz and a Fregat-M upper stage to lunar orbit. Setting aside the issue of the rocket, which I haven’t gotten to yet, I’ve found something weird with my calculations. This is my first time doing anything like this ever btw so go easy on me if there is something wrong. I watched this video in order to be able to do some very rough calculations. I’m not trying to literally design a spaceship, just do some general checks to make sure an idea for a story is reasonably plausible. So, I used Soyuz TMA-M and Fregat-M. I assumed whatever was needed to allow the Soyuz to remain in lunar orbit for a few months (more RCS prop, new comms equipment etc.) + ripping out the main propulsion unit in the service module due to Fregat providing propulsion would keep the Soyuz mass identical to the LEO version. So the wet mass for “Soyuz TMA-L” is 14.12 tons. Dry mass is 8.07 tons. Thrust of the Fregat-M’s engine is 20 kilonewtons. With this we get 1.41643059 m/s per second “Acceleration”. I did TWR before realizing it didn’t matter in vacuum (or so I am told). Now exhaust velocity is ISP x Earth gravity. I did 333.2 × 9.8 for an exhaust velocity of 3265.36. Now, here is my attempt to do the rocket equation. 3265.36 × (14.12 divided by 8.07) = 5713.blah blah blah. I changed this km/s for delta v, so 5.713 km/s. Now, Wikipedia seems to say to get from LLO to lunar escape velocity, you just need 0.9 km/s. But it also says that to get from TLI to LLO, you need 0.9 km/s. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Delta-v_budget So in theory Fregat should be able to brake the whole thing into LLO, right? But this here says the mission architecture considered for Soyuz IRL required a Blok DM stage for lunar orbit insertion (see the “scenario 2” section) https://www.russianspaceweb.com/soyuz_acts.html What am I doing wrong here?

The Apollo CSM was known for being a pretty capable spacecraft due to retaining the big engine originally tended to lift the entire spacecraft off the surface of the Moon. But could a CSM have braked into Earth orbit instead of reentering directly? Or would that be too much?

I feel like it would be cheaper to just buy launches from private companies. Purchasing a rocket would entail having a supply line set up for maintenance, which, come to think of it, is something I’ve never seen suggested or discussed anywhere. But in all likelihood this sort of setup won’t be ready for a long time, and thus we won’t see rockets being sold like long haul trucks- the rocket builders will continue to be the transport company too.

I’ve completely fallen in love with Big Gemini. Not only did I realize it was actually proposed in 1969 instead of 1967- making it a viable Space Shuttle competitor- but the OMB (Office of Management of Budget or something) actually did a cost report and said Big G launched on a Titan IIIM would be more cost effective than the Shuttle. Screw Apollo, For All Mankind, society would have flying cars and fusion energy by now if Big G got built! I only say this half jokingly (the other half is serious because I’m writing a story where this happens).

Very interesting news! This is the first time hardware for one of the Chinese Falcon 9 “clones” has been seen AFAIK. LandSpace’s Zhuque-3 may soon undergo a hop test. https://x.com/cnspaceflight/status/1733752233530102068?s=46&t=Jd73T2beq0JLNtwTy1uR5A Zhuque-3 looks like Falcon 9 but is intended to be made of stainless steel and use methalox. And meanwhile the Hyperbola-2 (of i-Space I think) has done its own hop test. https://x.com/cnspaceflight/status/1733788444646883443?s=46&t=Jd73T2beq0JLNtwTy1uR5A Hyperbola-2 was originally intended to be a small launch rocket (only 1.4~ ton payload to LEO) that would reusable. But in July they announced it would be cancelled and they would skip straight to Hyperbola-3, which also looks a lot like Falcon 9. They aim for the first launch in 2025 and first recovery attempt in 2026. Meanwhile, the government built Long March 8R has long since passed the planned first recovery attempt date of the single unit core-boosters, which IIRC was supposed to happen in 2022. There hasn’t been a lot of news about it and I have to wonder if they will do it at all. The Long March series is pretty much the only rocket keeping up with Falcon 9 in terms of launches (once Starlink is removed), and thus there isn’t really any need for a reusable rocket right now. Reusability might be better explored by funding the Long March 9 instead, which will play a bigger role if China plans to take on any potential Western led effort to make use of space resources. Otherwise, expendable rockets suffice for now. It would be better to let the private industry handle reusability.

The manga (Japanese comics) version: From Space Brothers, by Koyama Chuya. In the story, Namba Hibito becomes the first Japanese person to set foot on the Moon in 2025, flying on Orion and Altair as the successful (and now international) Constellation program has resulted in a lunar base being built in the early 2020s. But Namba and another astronaut get involved in a rover accident, and Hibito nearly loses his life when his suit almost runs out of oxygen. He was kept confined to the base due to NASA protocol, and by the time he returns to Earth he has panic attacks whenever he puts on a space suit. After journeying to Russia for "Soyuz training" (the anime has a sort of hybrid L3-LKM lander being used, but it appears the manga may properly use Orel and the LKPV or whatever the new lander design is called, although I haven't gotten that far yet) veteran cosmonaut and Cavalier of the Hero of Russia Ivan Tolstoy helps him recover may putting on different types of suits and helmets (ranging from an American football helmet to a diver suit) one by one until he is able to successfully walk 10 meters in a Sokol suit (while also criticizing NASA's actions, saying if such an incident happened to a Russian cosmonaut they would be told to immediately put on a suit and go back out to avoid a fear developing, which actually makes sense and is what a Navy diver did in 1942 at Pearl Harbor after nearly being swallowed by the wreckage of the USS Arizona). But despite performing well in an evaluation at NASA later on, the grumpy Moon program manager Walter Gates says Hibito can't fly again. So JAXA makes a deal with Roscosmos to set up their own cadre of foreign astronauts, with Hibito becoming the first Japanese cosmonaut. The manga is called "Space Brothers" because Hibito has an older brother named Mutta, who goes on his own journey to become an astronaut. The two made a promise to meet on the Moon one day after they saw a UFO in 2006 at a young age. The big text is the title of the specific comic issue, "The Temperature of Russia". Hibito first arrives at Star City and receives a seemingly cold welcome, but after showing off his impressive ability to handle G forces after being spun in a chair (on account of technically being a veteran astronaut) as part of training, Hibito takes the initiative to get to know them and he discovers they are good people, but the "temperature" of social relations in Russia is different than that of JSC in Texas (he didn't know because prior to this he had only visited as a NASA astronaut and not really interacted with people in a casual setting that much apart from with Ivan, his good friend) but the people are still friendly in their own way. Interestingly, in this manga India appears to have abandoned its independent spaceflight program, because an Indian astronaut takes part in training with Mutta in 2026. And obviously, US-Russia relations are much better off in this world. The manga started in 2007, a year before the first sign of a break in East-West tensions kicked off in our world.

I’m very lucky to live right on the edge of suburbia. If I drive 5 minutes one way I’m in ranch country and 5 minutes the other way there is a supermarket. So I get good internet to enjoy discussing with everyone on the KSP forum while also having decent enough darkness to see satellites frequently. Like, I’ll often see 5-6 in one night if it’s clear enough. Notably, I tend to find them easier to spot in the middle of the night/early morning hours, rather than just after sunrise or sunset. I came to stargazing too late to see Shuttle with ISS, but the one time I did see ISS, there was a Cargo Dragon trailing behind it. The difference between the station and that ship is just incredible. Also interestingly, the Cargo Dragon was dimmer than most satellites I see. I don’t know if that we because it was near ISS or if the solar panel side was facing me and absorbing light? If anyone knows please share your thoughts

Hi y’all, I know there are people here who have been following space for a long time and often study the post-2000 Shuttle replacement proposals, one of which was the Constellation program. Even though I first found out about it after it was cancelled, it’s presence in the NASA 50th anniversary online interactive website enamored me in the 2nd and 3rd grade (also, SLS at the time had no mission assigned, so it was pretty boring) and it’s one of my favorite never built projects. It also features prominently in the Japanese comic series Space Brothers, which is really good (unfortunately it hasn’t been translated into English). Anyways, if anyone happens to have PDF files they’ve found concerning the program- whether it be stuff related to Orion, Altair, Ares I or V, or the more obscure things like the planned lunar base- if it doesn’t take too much of your time, I’d greatly appreciate it if you could share them by either posting them here or DMing me. Thank you!

Eh, this is what was said about the R-56, a rocket developed by Mikhail Yangel, the lesser known of the space industry but a huge name in ballistic missiles. One blog called it “too big for LEO missions, too small for lunar missions” and attributed that to why it was never built. But Falcon Heavy, which has a roughly similar payload to the R-56, has proven to be useful. I think it would be useful to have in the same way Atlas occasionally flew with only one SRB. But the question is whether that capability is worth the development cost. If Musk died in a car crash in 2015 and Starship never existed, I think it would be worth it. But now it would just make sense to use whatever funding can be found for SS/SH.

Bruh, this is a real concept. https://dongfanghour.com/ispace-asymetrical-hyperbola-3a/ China’s i-Space wants to do this. It is useful because it creates an intermediate capability between the “light” rocket (F9 or its Chinese clone) and the “heavy” rocket (FH or its Chinese clone)- in other words, a “medium rocket”.

You are taking this out of context. He isn’t saying “using solid fuel core stages would have been better so we could compete with SpaceX” he is saying “using solid fuel core stages would have been better so we could get this thing flying on time.” Realistically it is pointless to ponder if Ariane 6 could have been made reusable. The meeting in question where they dropped the solid fuel core for a liquid fueled one took place in 2014, a year before Falcon 9’s first landing. Prior to that feat, no one knew reusability of conventional rockets was feasible or would be so good for business. It would have been idiotic if he had actually said “if only we tried to make Ariane 6 reusable”. Not only would that not meet the 2020 in-service deadline, but it is also a bit like saying “if only we didn’t build the Space Shuttle like we did”. With hindsight it makes sense but no one knew things were going to end up how they did. People made the best decision they could have at the time in the face of funding and political issues. It only makes sense to lament a decision if you could have realistically changed it. If you could not have, it is best to accept something you thought was good had an unfortunate effect, and move on and try to make the best of the situation you are in now. I feel like that is something a lot of folks don’t think about when they wonder why there are so many non-reusable rockets still being produced. A lot of these projects started a few years before anyone even knew reusability was feasible and cost effective. It would be incredibly expensive to change the design 50 or 60% through development, and money doesn’t exactly grow on trees when it comes to space development funding. The bottom line for a rocket is that if it can get stuff into space, it is useful and worth being worked on. It isn’t like military equipment where you can radically change a design or cancel it on a whim if changing strategy and tactical situations make the piece of technology in question obsolete.

There are at least two scenes where people run from a burning P-40 so although I read about this on Wikipedia, I was never able to figure out which scene it actually was.

@Superfluous J @Hotel26 I don’t think it has anything to do with logic or whether we could build a simulation with our understanding of computers. In my opinion, if there is a simulation it was built by something of such great knowledge and power its actions would be indiscernible to us, just as a fish isn’t really capable of discerning complex human behaviors. But yes, the question of “Are we in a simulation built by ourselves/other humans” can be answered with a pretty certain no. Unless we start getting into questions of whether “we” is literally us, as in I built this simulation for myself but wiped my memory as I went inside. Which isn’t really a question about “are we living in a simulation” but could begin slipping into arguments about solipsism. Pretty much. Insofar as it isn’t a scientific idea but is being peddled as a sort of “higher truth” “within the boundaries of science*” it basically hits all the marks for New New Age theological thinking without the theo. *At least this is the strong vibe I get from such believers who talk about their ideas. EDIT- It should also be noted simulation theory can be an idea held while being religious too. Look up Philip K. Dick’s 1977 speech in Metz, France.

I don’t see anything wrong with the current thread. You could just do a “what’s your favorite geologic period 2023” type deal as if it is an annual or once every couple years thing though.