SunlitZelkova

Now we need to test the Imperial family to see if they contain this particle, and we can prove if they are descended from the Sun Goddess herself.

Western sources confirm successful launch https://x.com/titaniumsv5/status/1727199380808319203?s=46&t=Jd73T2beq0JLNtwTy1uR5A The satellite is called Malligyong-1. North Korea plans to launch several more and build a constellation. It is in sun synchronous orbit.

North Korea has claimed it successfully put the satellite into orbit. No confirmation from other sources yet.

1. Would a different Space Shuttle design being selected allow a higher flight cadence? I’m specifically trying to see if it was ever possible for a Space Shuttle to launch once a week (different shuttles obviously). 2. What would the failure modes for an inertial confinement fusion engine look like? Could it ever explode, and would it be big? 3. Here’s a big one. What are the basic formulas I would need to know to do a very rough design of my own space mission?

At about 11:00 PM JST, the interlinked South Korean-Japanese-American missile (and by extension, space launch) detection system observed a rocket lifting off from North Korea. It is highly likely this was the third satellite launch attempt due to it following the planned splash down areas given by the NK government. It is still unknown whether it was successful or not. The Japanese MOD has only said they can’t confirm if it is in orbit, and have remained silent since. Ionospheric readings showed a larger disturbance at the time of launch than before, probably indicating the second stage worked for at least some amount of time, says Dr. Jeffrey Lewis. (Not posting any links because they contain politics)

Interestingly this concept doesn’t originate with Sagan. ”As a result of a thousand million years of evolution, the universe is becoming conscious of itself, able to understand something of its past history and its possible future. This cosmic self-awareness is being realized in one tiny fragment of the universe — in a few of us human beings. Perhaps it has been realized elsewhere too, through the evolution of conscious living creatures on the planets of other stars. But on this our planet, it has never happened before.” -Julian Huxley Julian Huxley was a biologist. He was basically the Carl Sagan of the 1940s and 50s, and was well known for his books, appearances on radio, and early TV. Among other titles, he was the first director of UNESCO. A major proponent of the theory of natural selection, he was knighted by the Queen 100 years after Darwin first revealed the theory. Unfortunately, he took his advocacy for the idea a little too far. He supported eugenics to some degree and believed lower class people were genetically inferior.

Thanks for sharing the blurb anyways!

There’s not a lot of research that can be done in 10 years from building the base. It’d be like going from Apollo 11 to a full fledged Moon colony in 1979. It seems like we would want to spend more time looking at the effects of living on another planet on human bodies before settling down there. Artificial gravity would eliminate that need, but Musk seems hell bent on surface colonization despite not knowing if it is feasible.

Interestingly, oxygen extraction was the main theoretical ISRU target on the Moon prior to the confirmation of ice on the South Pole in the 2000s. I’m surprised, I thought it had been abandoned in favor using water.

North Korea has notified Japan it will attempt to launch a satellite between Wednesday and December 1st. It should be noted they originally said the 3rd launch attempt would be in October. I wonder if it is possible Russian specialists have already arrived and provided some assistance as per the statements of the two leaders.

I already listed some examples earlier. Now you can say “Well that’s just Elon time/talk”, but the fact remains he does say these things, regardless of whether they are realistic or likely or not.

If you ever think you are useless, just think about the guy who signed off on the US Army’s estimate of North Korea’s nuclear weapons. “20-60” nuclear weapons is about as useful a figure as 10,000-30,000.

Yeah, this is something I didn’t take into account. I know the average parent wouldn’t, but I would still be concerned about the odd apple out. Have they made detailed hypothetical designs of these “railways”? Not likely engineering document level, but just a simple conceptual design. I’d be curious to see them if there are.

You are correct in that technically, society doesn't have to do anything. It can just be a way for analysts to group humans who live in the vicinity of each other and maybe say hi from time to time, but otherwise leave each other alone. But historically, society does indeed have a responsibility to protect children. This is why the whole concept of adulthood exists, because children below a certain age are not ready to do things on their own and need to be watched over by both the parents and tribe. Parents alone cannot be trusted, which is why things like Child Protective Services exist. No one under 18 can sign a waiver. Sending children to Mars would be unacceptable (see below for more explanation of this belief). As I mentioned earlier in this thread, SpaceX has said they want to skip a Mars research base and start right off the bat with a town on Mars. Given... certain aspects of human nature, this is going to result in pregnancies sooner rather than later. And yes, you can argue there will be a research base and plenty of study on how best to build a Mars city first, but that's only speculation. What we know is that SpaceX wants to build a Mars City as quick as possible to the point of proposing something as ludicrous as people living in the landed ships on the surface right off the bat. They said they wanted to catch Super Heavy with the tower equipped with "chopsticks". And they actually did it. I think I myself and anyone else who thinks SpaceX has the potential to be negligent in how they handle going about building their city are not unjustified in doing so. Why are you blowing this up to include space travel as whole? I said I didn't care if adults on research expeditions get blown up. Yes, that will continue to happen no matter what, and I don't believe there is a point in stopping just because of that. What worries me is colonization, which will entail moving people and their families, in all likelihood including children, to Mars. SpaceX is known for moving fast and breaking things, and that's fine with the lives of adults who sign waivers, but not for children, whether they launch from Earth and journey millions of miles or are born into a situation they had no choice in in a small habitat on Mars. Actually, I will back off on the children who on born on Mars. Just as it is simply nonsensical to use regulation to prevent people from being born into inhumane situations on Earth, that notion that allowing people to have children on Mars would constitute a negligence society needs to intervene in was wrong. However, I don't believe children should be allowed to be colonists insofar as there is a possibility of true negligence (negligence they could be held legally accountable for). I do think any Mars colony would involve sending families to Mars. They aren't going to just pick bachelors or 20 something year olds. They're going to want "millions" as they say, and they are going to need people with various different skills, some of which can only be gained after having lived enough of life to have had a family. I don't believe anyone would dump their family for living on Mars, and therefore would desire to bring them along. Musk doesn't really seem to like ethics, preferring efficiency, and I could see him allowing children to travel there. And then if the Mars hab explodes because of some defect brought about by a lack of care purposefully overlooked, the blood will be on our hands for having failed to prevent this. This would be as irresponsible as allowing children to participate in some exotic tourist attraction that is normally reserved for adults who can understand and sign a waiver. If Musk does indeed limit colonists to bachelors and 20 something year olds, neither without children, my concerns will be addressed. But there is no reason to believe that will be the case. I think he would value skills over demographic questions and just send whoever is willing*. Is there reason to believe Musk will send children to Mars as colonists? No, but as I said, we hold these discussions even if the scenario in question is purely hypothetical, just as we talk about the possibility of AI rising up and turning on humanity. *To illustrate this concern, let's say as part of making the city a backup for humanity, he wants to send five physicists to Mars. Maybe he finds one who is a bachelor, but if there are four others who say yes but want to bring their families, is he really going to say no?

Being a fan of the Soviet space program, I compare the two out of respect. I can understand how others compare the two in a negative light though. The N1 was supposed to take humans to the vicinity of Mars in 1971 in its original conception, and then later was redesigned for the Moon, Earth orbital stations, and Mars landings. I don't really view the Soviets as having been competitors in the Space Race, but rather as fellow humans who had great dreams that did not come true. Starship is going to avenge those who worked on the N1 and dreamed of conquering space with it, whose hopes were dashed by the Soviet system. If anything I'd say the fact that the N1 exploded on the pad in 1969 but had slightly more successful flights afterwards should be treated as proof the design isn't crazy, rather than used as ammunition to argue against Super Heavy. But people tend to get caught up in the word "failure".

Again, I never said the booster would have an identical test record to the N1. I said the whole vehicle would be similar in that it fails to get to orbit four times and then succeeds on the fifth (the fifth of the N1 has been deemed highly likely to succeed by both the project participants, men who cancelled it, and historians). The N1 “booster” encompasses more than just the first stage. The other stages were static fired due to them being smaller and worked fine. In that sense it could be said that up until IFT-2, the N1 and Starship were at a similar level of completion in that the first stage had failed but the upper stages succeeded in other independent tests. Now, Starship has surpassed N1 in that the first stage successfully flew. But, it is also tied with N1 in that it hasn’t reached orbit. My original statement didn’t have anything to do with a particular stage or trying to connect the dots between the different milestones. I’m simply saying until Starship reaches orbit, it is tied with the N1 in that regard (reaching orbit). And I think it will take two more tries before a successful orbit. I’m just sharing my guess and don’t want it to be distorted. I’d be pleased if I was wrong about how many flights it takes to get to orbit.

There was an understanding that there was a possibility of an accident on Apollo 1. It didn’t make what North American and NASA did right. Just because current law would allow something like a waiver to wave legal claims and responsibility doesn’t mean that is right. I am highly skeptical not claiming 99% safety or putting an asterisk and talking about risk waves any responsibility in any case. A migration and living services company is very different from a tourist attraction. If this is the case, why don’t all companies do it? Ford, construction contractors, and gun makers would never be sued and people would still buy their products anyways. What we, or at least I, believe is that colonizing Mars is incomparable to standard spaceflight. This isn’t a lander lithobraking with some astronauts onboard. It’s entire habitats full of ordinary citizens going up in smoke if one thing goes wrong. There is risk in putting astronauts on rockets. Trained astronauts who understand the risks. But that doesn’t mean that risk should be extended to families, including children. I don’t care if Sammy Rockwell III from Indiana who dreamed of being the first man on Mars dies in an EDL near Acidalia Planitia. That’s what he signed up for. Maybe the first generation of colonists will sign up for that too. But not their children, or unborn children (if childbirth is even possible in Mars gravity). Society has a responsibility to protect them. To sum up what I’m saying: 1:270 LOC is fine for a capsule with astronauts, not for a habitat with families. People tend to worry when people say things. It doesn’t matter when or where. AI isn’t really near the level of controlling nukes or potentially turning on its creators, but we still have those conversations now.

Consider the following. NASA and NAA tell Congress there are no quality issues with Apollo ——> There are quality issues, and astronauts die. NASA and the NAA can be blamed for this. (Interlude: it’s why Apollo Applications didn’t get much funding. They wanted to punish NASA, which knew about the issues at NAA but lied) Now, SpaceX tells people there are no quality* issues with Starship ——> There are quality issues, and Mars colonists die. SpaceX can be blamed for this to some degree, whether that be a factory foreman who hid the problems or a corporate culture level issue. *I’m not necessarily saying there will be quality issues with Starship, I’m just using that particular hypothetical as a point of argument. I think this a perfectly valid line of reasoning. Apollo 1 provides a good precedent. It’s not about risk level or what minute details have you. It’s about responsibility.

I never said it would have failures identical to the N1. Just that it would be similar to the N1 in that some failure happens prior to reaching orbit.

I think the disconnect between @tater and @KSK is that tater assumes SpaceX will actually give an honest safety assessment and not lie, whereas KSK is more skeptical. My two cents in this convo is this: negligent, and irresponsible risk exists. The Apollo 1 astronauts knew they were signing up for something dangerous, but that did not excuse North American’s shoddy craftsmanship that led to the fire.

As far as ICBMs go, this isn’t exclusive to Russia though. The US still uses the Minuteman III, the shiny new Peacekeeper was shelved. Sentinel is on track to rival the SLS in terms of pork. Scientific American just released an article the other day calling for its cancellation. Part of the problem with getting a replacement for Soyuz or Proton is that those rockets just work. They have run into the same problem as the Space Shuttle- it works good enough for what we want to do, so there is no money to go around for something new (whether that be Angara, Soyuz-5, or Shuttle-derived SHLV). Unlike the Space Shuttle, Soyuz may continue to fly indefinitely, so it may be awhile for its successor succeeds. Angara on the other hand has a better chance because Proton production has ended, IIRC.

I said “four flights with various levels of success but still failing” not “four flights with an unsuccessful first stage.” It has yet to surpass N1 in that it hasn’t made it to orbit. I believe there will be two more failures prior to a successful orbit. Successful Starship EDL is another question.

TASS reports Sarmat has gone on experimental combat duty. Interestingly, this has a historical precedent. According to Steven J. Zaloga, during the height of the Cuban Missile Crisis, one of the R-9A ICBMs was put on launch alert at the test stand at Baikonur, despite being a prototype.

Lol I didn’t realize it was so early in the morning. I happened to be up but was watching A Million Miles Away on Amazon Prime. I’ll catch a replay later. My guess after hearing about a second RUD is this will end up like the N1: four flights with various different levels of success, but still failing, and a totally successful fifth flight (which the N1 never got to unfortunately).

It's not really comparable because Venus is just such a better place to use airships. From this nice blog post https://spaceflighthistory.blogspot.com/2020/08/venus-is-best-place-in-solar-system-to.html And here's a fun article looking at how it is possible that empty rocket stages might be capable of floating in Venus' atmosphere https://selenianboondocks.com/2013/11/venusian-rocket-floaties/ "Atmospheric recovery" of rockets is an idea he also floats (pun intended). It's a crazy idea, and I think the idea of any colony being self-sustaining is pretty poor (space is just a terrible place for lifeboating, Earthly fallout shelters make more sense), but an Earth-dependent/space-dependent floating Venus colony could be a project for completion in a time frame of maybe a millennia. Especially if it turns out humans can't be born and properly grow in Mars gravity or lunar gravity, it's worth a shot.