Jump to content

Boeing's Starliner


Kryten

Recommended Posts

Undock and EDL in early Sept

They will prep the crew 8 Dragon with padding in the cargo rack as an emergency contingency for "lifeboat" return between Starliner undock and Crew-9 arrival.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That's two questions in a row essentially saying, "Forget the techie details, what about the astronauts missing the holidays/the public money?"

Edit: Bill Nelson just called that last question "posturing". Someone is losing a bit of patience.

Edited by AckSed
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, AckSed said:

"How do you rebuild trust in Boeing?"

"Science!"

maybe dont prioritize inclusion over merit where human lives are at stake. can you imagine a forest gump apollo 13 crossover? thats what i figure boeing is like right now. il leave the hypothetical movie quotes to somone more funny than i.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, kerbiloid said:

How can they return in February, when they were going to return in summer, and didn't take their winter coats?

its funny, alaska airlines wont let you board for some destinations without winter garb on your person. say if you were going to nome to watch the conclusion of the iditarod.

i think stranger things got this detail right. the amount of respect that show paid our airline is worthy of note, right equipment and uniforms for the time period as well.

Edited by Nuke
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Kind of sounded like analysis paralysis. They just could not not close the uncertainties.

It seemed obvious that while they were all presenting a united front, several of the answers revealed that there was a significant and still-unclosed gap between the people who thought there was too much risk to fly back on Starliner and the people who thought that was actually the less-risky choice. One guy on the panel even talked about how they have some work to do to heal the relationships between those groups.

My guess is that Boeing, as a corporate entity, is going to want to get out of the Starliner business. They are no longer going to be part-owners of ULA, Starliner has cost them billions, and they have other problems to deal with in the divisions that actually make money for them. I assume they will meet their contractual obligations and nothing more, but I could be wrong and things could change.

If I were NASA, especially after this, I would be looking for a third option. No matter what the new Boeing CEO said to them, Boeing is likely to see this as a severe vote of no-confidence. And Boeing needs cash flow, not a prestige program that is actually hurting their image rather than helping it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, mikegarrison said:

Kind of sounded like analysis paralysis. They just could not not close the uncertainties.

(my emphasis) This was the exact language I was hearing from my friend at NASA for the last several weeks. It was not for public consumption then, obviously.

1 hour ago, mikegarrison said:

If I were NASA, especially after this, I would be looking for a third option. No matter what the new Boeing CEO said to them, Boeing is likely to see this as a severe vote of no-confidence. And Boeing needs cash flow, not a prestige program that is actually hurting their image rather than helping it.

Maybe Sierra Space can accelerate Crew Dream Chaser once they get some flight experience with cargo. No idea how many reuses they are planning on, but at some point they could risk the flight leader to do a LES test. Likely wrecks the vehicle since I presume any pad abort test lands in the ocean.

(I just looked down and noticed that my mousepad has been a Starliner CFT, NASA "Flight Operations" mousepad since my buddy gave it to me when I saw him in Houston several months ago)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, mikegarrison said:

Kind of sounded like analysis paralysis. They just could not not close the uncertainties.

It seemed obvious that while they were all presenting a united front, several of the answers revealed that there was a significant and still-unclosed gap between the people who thought there was too much risk to fly back on Starliner and the people who thought that was actually the less-risky choice. One guy on the panel even talked about how they have some work to do to heal the relationships between those groups.

There's also the ongoing pressure from having extended the mission duration by an order of magnitude already. The story of the "stranded astronauts" have already made it around the mainstream news and into public consciousness. That means that any mishaps involving Starliner would be a lot more damning to NASA than what would otherwise be the case. I mean, the loss of a crew on day 8 of the 8-day mission due to a vehicle fault would have been a catastrophe in itself, but if it happened after a dozen weeks of examining the spacecraft and giving the thumbs up, heads would roll all over the administration (more so than usual, that is). It would be spectacularly bad PR.

Risk is, after all, a combination of probability and consequence. Even if the probability of failure wasn't significantly higher than for a normal mission, the consequences of it have still kept rising all summer. Never mind that it's an election year.

By moving the return to Crew-9, NASA has offloaded quite a bit of risk. If Starliner fails to align and burns in the atmosphere on the way back, it'd be a massive loss of face for Boeing, but NASA's decision would be vindicated and they'd be applauded for making the right call. If it returns without a single hitch, NASA still would not face much blame. "We couldn't know that for certain, we couldn't take the risk" would still be an acceptable justification. And even if the Dragon capsule of Crew-9 were to fail for whatever reason, that'd be on SpaceX and largely unrelated to the current debacle (and, thinking cynically, it'd be after the election).

Boeing leaves this with a soiled reputation either way, though. At least they've avoided the very worst-case scenario, a loss of vessel with crew on board. But if the empty vessel were to fail, everybody could quickly surmise what would have happened to the crew if they had been on board. And if it were to succeed without a hitch, well ... the fact of the matter is that NASA has decided they couldn't take the risk, which is a damning conclusion in itself. A vote of no confidence, as you put it. I bet there are currently a lot of higher-ups at Boeing who bitterly wish they had never gone into this whole Starliner business in the first place. There's no way it will be certified for operations now, without another - and flawless - demonstration flight.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Codraroll said:

And even if the Dragon capsule of Crew-9 were to fail for whatever reason, that'd be on SpaceX and largely unrelated to the current debacle (and, thinking cynically, it'd be after the election).

There are other risks. Medical problem on the ISS, disastrous failure on the ISS, massive radiation storm, etc. Just being in space is a risk.

There are also program risks. Such as convincing Boeing that NASA is simply no longer a partner they can work with. The whole point was supposed to be to not put all the astronaut eggs in one basket, and yet by this decision NASA indicates that they only trust one of their baskets.

I do wonder how much of this ended up being a political calculation v. an engineering calculation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, mikegarrison said:

Inclusion of what?

aerospace industry employees need to be the best of the best, not the most politically correct.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Nuke said:

aerospace industry employees need to be the best of the best, not the most politically correct.

The implication there is, and I say this with no reservation, complete and utter repurposed bovine waste.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

50 minutes ago, mikegarrison said:

The implication there is, and I say this with no reservation, complete and utter repurposed bovine waste.

i should point out that "the best" is now a pretty diverse crowd. we have come a long way since mission control was full of people formerly belonging to a certain political party.

Edited by Nuke
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 hours ago, Nuke said:

maybe dont prioritize inclusion over merit where human lives are at stake. can you imagine a forest gump apollo 13 crossover? thats what i figure boeing is like right now. il leave the hypothetical movie quotes to somone more funny than i.

 Boeing: I've been in orbit for 2 months and 20 days.

Everybody: Quiet, quiet! He's gonna say something!

Boeing: I'm pretty tired... I think I'll go home now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 8/24/2024 at 7:16 PM, Nuke said:

its funny, alaska airlines wont let you board for some destinations without winter garb on your person. say if you were going to nome to watch the conclusion of the iditarod.

A long time ago, I was at a Gun Camp in the Suffield Training Area in a very cold November.  No one could leave the main camp or field bivouac without their sleeping bag as if the weather turned and their vehicle broke down, you could die even during the day without it.

As for Starliner, well, this better be the Boeing Nadir because to go lower will likely involve more loss of life.  That means despite all the testing done on-orbit and on the ground, NASA is not sufficiently confident of Starliner just for the few maneuvers to return and re-enter and land.  This means it likely exceeds the previous experiences of similar problems on Dragon.

What this has also revealed is the shear stupidity of no interoperability of spacesuits between craft.  This needs to be fixed pronto.  It should also include the Russians and the Chinese as better to plan for it and not need it than to need it and not plan for it.

For the Starliner crew, hopefully they were fitted for SpaceX suits.  Or such suits that will fit them for re-entry are sent up.  I still remember Soyuz 11 and it would be madness to risk that again.

(While thinking of worse case scenarios, I thought of an evil one: Starliner returns okay, but Dragon 9 doesn't.  Damn unlikely, but damn....)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

spacex will have their hubris moment sooner or later. success can make you rather complacent and that's a prime breeding ground for failure.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, Jacke said:

What this has also revealed is the shear stupidity of no interoperability of spacesuits between craft.  This needs to be fixed pronto.  It should also include the Russians and the Chinese as better to plan for it and not need it than to need it and not plan for it.

Yes, I agree. At the very least you'd think hose adapters would be easy enough to bang out.

29 minutes ago, Jacke said:

(While thinking of worse case scenarios, I thought of an evil one: Starliner returns okay, but Dragon 9 doesn't.  Damn unlikely, but damn....)

I posted the same scenario above I think (maybe in the SpaceX thread?). Spaceflight is not safe.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, tater said:

Yes, I agree. At the very least you'd think hose adapters would be easy enough to bang out.

My background is Canadian Forces Army, not Navy.  But the shear craze of needing multiple adaptors for at-sea replenishment of liquids (I remember an old video looking at several then in use) had another NATO standard set up and the ships adapted to it so the need for adaptors is now minimal.  I suspect other non-NATO navies may hold to it.

Such should be done with at least spacesuits at this time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...