A Thought Experiement

[SAS123]

Here is a nice thought experiment. What would happen if the entire 2016 United States suddenly transported back in time to 1940 and replaced 1940s US?

This is excluding all paradoxes and everything beyond the beaches and Canadaian / Mexican was not transported but stayed the 1940s version of what they were.

Everything on and over the US (Including planes and satellites) are transported to 1940s.

(Extension: 1940s US also gets transported to 2016. Same exclusions as above apply.)

Edited April 8, 2016 by SAS123
extension

[cubinator]

The USSR would get really freaked out, for one thing.

[p1t1o]

The USA does not currently produce enough food in and of itself to feed its population, I predict massive starvation within a few weeks. Suddenly WWII is prevented as the US food crisis dominates the global psyche, however the death and devastation far outstrips the WWII holocaust.

[HebaruSan]

39 minutes ago, p1t1o said:

The USA does not currently produce enough food in and of itself to feed its population,

Can you cite a source for that? The data I'm finding suggest that US food imports may exceed US food exports, but it's not clear whether the difference is enough to make the US non self sufficient if both were drastically reduced. Here's one example from 2013:

I can't tell for sure, but that looks to me like a slightly greenish gray rather than reddish for the US. Consider that current US food exports probably also exceed the capacity of the rest of the world to absorb in 1940, so those products would have to seek buyers in the domestic market. It might end up being a wash, with US farmers shifting from export crops to domestic staples and raising prices somewhat over a few seasons.

Economic chaos seems quite likely (for starters, which dollar do we use?), but 1940 is close enough to the Great Depression that it's not clear whether that would be worse or better. Probably there would be enough simple disruptions in expected levels of production of this or that commodity that the details wouldn't matter for at least a few years. A bunch of cross-border oil pipelines and other such extravagances will need to be patched in a hurry.

If Pearl Harbor happens on schedule, then Hiroshima and Nagasaki probably happen at the beginning of the war rather than 4 years later. Berlin or Frankfurt might get nuked too, depending on how Germany plays the US diplomacy angle.

EDIT: On second thought, if the current US polity suddenly found itself facing Actual Hitler, our politicians would probably fall over themselves pledging to bomb this, nuke that, torture this guy, show so much stony resolve, etc., so it might not be possible for Germany to avoid an immediate onslaught. If anything, there might be more nuclear strikes in the hopes of not having to draft all adult males this time around.

Edited April 8, 2016 by HebaruSan

[p1t1o]

Just now, HebaruSan said:

Can you cite a source for that?

Not at the moment, my contribution was fuelled by about 60seconds of googling, not a very in depth analysis to be sure.

[RainDreamer]

41 minutes ago, p1t1o said:

The USA does not currently produce enough food in and of itself to feed its population, I predict massive starvation within a few weeks. Suddenly WWII is prevented as the US food crisis dominates the global psyche, however the death and devastation far outstrips the WWII holocaust.

Well, they simply need to sell off technology for food trade from nearby countries, like canada and mexico.

[p1t1o]

Just now, RainDreamer said:

Well, they simply need to sell off technology for food trade from nearby countries, like canada and mexico.

If there is a serious shortage, it's debatable whether enough could be distributed in time to prevent a disaster.

I read an analysis somewhere about how just closing the roads in the us for a few days would be enough to cause mass starvation as shops and distributor run out of stock - getting deliveries up and running again after the roads re-open was a major factor. I'll see if I can find a reference when I get home.

Feeding 300000000 people is no joke. A lot of other countries are in the same boat, luckily mass time travel is quite rare

 

[HebaruSan]

1 hour ago, SAS123 said:

Here is a nice thought experiment. What would happen if the entire 2016 United States suddenly transported back in time to 1940 and replaced 1940s US?

This is excluding all paradoxes and everything beyond the beaches and Canadaian / Mexican was not transported but stayed the 1940s version of what they were.

Everything on and over the US (Including planes and satellites) are transported to 1940s.

What happens to the rest of the 2016 world? Do they get a 1940s USA? That would also do some interesting things for economic and military relations.

[RainDreamer]

5 minutes ago, p1t1o said:

If there is a serious shortage, it's debatable whether enough could be distributed in time to prevent a disaster.

I read an analysis somewhere about how just closing the roads in the us for a few days would be enough to cause mass starvation as shops and distributor run out of stock - getting deliveries up and running again after the roads re-open was a major factor. I'll see if I can find a reference when I get home.

Feeding 300000000 people is no joke. A lot of other countries are in the same boat, luckily mass time travel is quite rare

 

Can't they mobilize the military for transport? Like in case of serious natural disaster, the military can help handle the logistics, using fast transport crafts and reserves.

[p1t1o]

27 minutes ago, RainDreamer said:

Can't they mobilize the military for transport? Like in case of serious natural disaster, the military can help handle the logistics, using fast transport crafts and reserves.

 I'm sure they would, but 300000000 is an awfully big number. And to make things worse a hefty chunk of the military was left behind in 2016...

[Rainbowtrout]

Reminder that politics is a tricky topic, so please keep the rules in mind.

[SAS123]

2 hours ago, HebaruSan said:

What happens to the rest of the 2016 world? Do they get a 1940s USA? That would also do some interesting things for economic and military relations.

If we want to extend this thought experiment, we can think of it as a swap. 2016 US gets transported to 1940s while 1940s US gets transported to 2016. So yes!

[HebaruSan]

6 hours ago, SAS123 said:

If we want to extend this thought experiment, we can think of it as a swap. 2016 US gets transported to 1940s while 1940s US gets transported to 2016. So yes!

Neat. First thing that comes to mind is that the distant carrier groups are going to be extremely confused when they try to radio home and receive back orders from FDR using encryption almost a century obsolete.

Google, Apple, and Scott Manley are gone, but their subcontractors in east Asia are still there. Samsung can do what it likes without legal retaliation, and you'd probably have software empires coming out of the outsourcing groups in India. Not sure how Windows would keep going with Redmond gone, so maybe Linux wins.

Next, more global economic chaos. The Euro has made gains, but the dollar is still a major reserve currency, so having the sovereign issuing it effectively disappear would be trouble. I think there would be hyper-deflation, as the supply of dollars is hugely constricted to 1940 levels (except for central bank reserves abroad, of course). The US would virtually be forced to default on a debt now many times the size of its GDP. Again plenty of cross-border pipelines would need emergency attention, but they're less important with the consumption of so much of the US's oil supply reset.

1940 is pre-legal-desegregation in the US, so there would be some international friction around that, possibly enough to fix the problem in fewer than the 25 years it took in our timeline, but the UN building also disappeared, so various multilateral institutions would have to be reconstituted.

Edited April 9, 2016 by HebaruSan

[SAS123]

Let's assume that the ISS is over US when it transports to 1940 so the ISS also gets transported with the US. What happens in that department? 

I would assume that because world war II is in progress, they couldn't just use the Soyuz escape pods and come back to earth. They would have to wait until the Modern US army had an area of ocean secured which wouldnt be too hard but with alot of the military left beind (mostly navy) it wouldn't be piece of cake.

Edited April 9, 2016 by SAS123

[HebaruSan]

Well, the normal landing site for the Soyuz is in Kazakhstan, so I don't know why the US army would have to get involved. Just put at least one Russian crewman on each pod, and you should be able to get to Moscow and request assistance to get home.

[SAS123]

9 minutes ago, HebaruSan said:

Well, the normal landing site for the Soyuz is in Kazakhstan, so I don't know why the US army would have to get involved. Just put at least one Russian crewman on each pod, and you should be able to get to Moscow and request assistance to get home.

Oh I didn't exactly know that. I thought the escape pods were for to get away from the ISS and get back to earth.

[Bill Phil]

The U.S. conquers the world. We get nuclear warheads, missiles, jets, 100,000 ton displacement aircraft carriers, nuclear reactors, robots, electronics...

1940s US today... Probably conquered by either Canada or Mexico. Maybe Mexico gets its old territory back.

1 hour ago, SAS123 said:

Let's assume that the ISS is over US when it transports to 1940 so the ISS also gets transported with the US. What happens in that department? 

I would assume that because world war II is in progress, they couldn't just use the Soyuz escape pods and come back to earth. They would have to wait until the Modern US army had an area of ocean secured which wouldnt be too hard but with alot of the military left beind (mostly navy) it wouldn't be piece of cake.

Soyuz lands on land.

[Stargate525]

World War II is done. Point blank. Berlin is within the operational range of our strategic airfleet from the US, and the Germans don't have anything able to catch, climb to, or in some cases SEE them. Japan has the same solution, no nukes needed. Decapitate the leadership and let the Japanese wail ineffectively against the remnants of whatever's in port of the Pacific Fleet (the German politics of the time would be much more ameniable to surrender).

US manufacturing explodes as we're suddenly the only country able to produce modern drugs, plastics, and electronics. The global recession gets worse worldwide as an audible sucking sound comes from the contiguous 48 states which draws all the free currency into the country.

After that... it depends on which side of the culture war wins; if the rest of the world becomes more like us, or if the US is pulled more in line with social thought of the 1950s and 60s.

 

[Dres]

No one going to mention that the 2016 the 1940's US gets transported to is likely to be incredibly unlike the one we have today, as, for the previous 75 years, a 3-quarter century early US has been present, causing havoc in the global markets, and probably all over the world with superior technology keeping them ahead of everyone? Or the fact that the 1940's US would be plopped down right on top of the 2016+75 US from the previous scenario?

Everyone else in the world would still be behind the future US, even in the year 2016 in the alternate timeline, as the US would have an almost century headstart. With superior manufacturing and technological abilities, they would also be improving their abilities at a rate at which no one could catch up. When suddenly, a much less advanced 1940's version takes its place, there would be an enormus global economic crash, and a power vacuum would form as the US no longer has the power to control the world.

Although, the OP probably meant that the 1940's US would be transferred to some alternate universe different to the one in which the 2016 US was sent, it's fun to think of other possibilities.

Edited April 9, 2016 by Dres
Accidental Double Post

[Raven Industries]

 I would assume 2016 US would have an easier time making Mexico pay for that wall, what with its superior firepower and all that.

[BashGordon33]

Well, WW2 would definitely end a lot quicker. Problem is, America has a fair bit of its military abroad in countries closer to threats, like the navies located in South Korea and Japan. They still have a significant amount of the military located on the mainland. 2016 America would still decimate all opposition. America would expand its territory immensely. A 2016 America in a 1940 world would become the worlds first Hyperpower. Most countries would surrender immediately. Another key advantage that has not been discussed in this topic, is that 2016 America has already been in WW2. All those 'top secret' codes and blueprints that pedant Germany buried deep within its government, have all been declassified in 2016. America would easily counter any resistance the Germans threw at them. The presence of the ISS would also shock many people. Even if the Soviets survived WW2 (not likely), they could never hope to win the space race. On the flipside, 1940 America in 2016 would definitely change the political landscape. 1940 America would not be conquered, as they have control over 2016 America's armies in left abroad. 

[lajoswinkler]

Without China making nearly everything except food for USA, problems would arise in a few days.

Without GPS and other fancy stuff, Internet would cease to exist and the country would plummet into chaos.

 

Nothing good, folks.

[kerbiloid]

Here is another thought experiment.
What would happen if the entire XXI century Cuba suddenly transported back in time to XV century and replaced the XV century one?
Probably, the Europe would be discovered by the Cuban fleet under the leadership of comrade Columbus.

Edited July 4, 2016 by kerbiloid

[Stargate525]

19 hours ago, lajoswinkler said:

Without China making nearly everything except food for USA, problems would arise in a few days.

Without GPS and other fancy stuff, Internet would cease to exist and the country would plummet into chaos.

 

Nothing good, folks.

You're really underestimating the amount of stock built-up in consumer goods between 'brought into the country' and 'sitting on the shelf.'

GPS and the internet have nothing to do with each other, and unless you have satellite-based ISP, your data runs on cables almost exclusively. Of the top 10 largest data/server centers in the world, 8 are in the US. We'd lose a LOT of the net, but it sure as heck won't 'cease to exist.'

[BashGordon33]

I know that the US won't have any of it's global trade, but with it's superior technology and military, anything it wanted, it would take.