Weather Chat Megathread

[tater]

Stay safe, Texas peeps! We New Mexicans traditionally give texans $@#!, but we actually kinda like you  .

[tater]

This thing might not make Cat 3, but the fact that it will park on the coast for days means it's gonna be nasty.

This is why I live someplace where nature doesn't try to kill me.

Edited August 25, 2017 by tater

[razark]

25 minutes ago, tater said:

This thing might not make Cat 3, but the fact that it will park on the cost for days means it's gonna be nasty.

A lot of people here are afraid of another situation like that with TS Allison.  That one looped around and hit the area multiple times, causing severe flooding.  It became the first storm name to be retired without reaching hurricane strength.  (And the only one until 2015.)

While the Center remains open today, we're under instructions to wrap our computers in our "Hurricane Protection Kits" (garbage bags) before leaving, and there's discussion of what's going to happen next week.

[Green Baron]

28 minutes ago, tater said:

This is why I live someplace where nature doesn't try to kill me.

You live on the slope of a mountain ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W93V0YTDUQ4

Debris flow Piz Cengalo (Bondo), Switzerland 3 days ago, probably caused by thawing of former permafrost. 8 People missing, they entered a trail despite of it being barred because avalanche danger. The village was evacuated because something was expected.

More to come with the thawing of the glaciers. Modern mountains don't call nymore, they come visiting themselves ...

 

 

[tater]

While there are plenty of large boulders around that used to be rather higher up the hill, we don't have glaciation here, and the water/snow is light enough that there is not that much recent erosion.

It's not impossible, certainly, but I think it would be an incredibly rare event on the ridge that my house is on---though it has certainly crossed my mind.

[ProtoJeb21]

1 hour ago, tater said:

This thing might not make Cat 3, but the fact that it will park on the coast for days means it's gonna be nasty.

I think Harvey will reach Major Hurricane intensity, even if it is running out of time. Over the last several hours, its barometric pressure has dropped dramatically to an intense 947 millibars. For comparison, this is 3 mb lower than last year's Hurricane Nicole, a long-lasting Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 140 mph. This sharp drop in pressure seems to indicate a new phase of rapid (or possibly explosive) intensification is beginning. But whatever Category Harvey makes landfall at, it is incredibly worrying.

57 minutes ago, razark said:

A lot of people here are afraid of another situation like that with TS Allison.  That one looped around and hit the area multiple times, causing severe flooding.  It became the first storm name to be retired without reaching hurricane strength.  (And the only one until 2015.)

While the Center remains open today, we're under instructions to wrap our computers in our "Hurricane Protection Kits" (garbage bags) before leaving, and there's discussion of what's going to happen next week.

That's what I've been fearing about as well. However, since Harvey may reach Category 3 intensity, it may be even worse than Hurricane Ike - which was "only" at Cat 2 at landfall. Plus the latter was moving much faster than Harvey, yet it still caused tremendous flooding and over two dozen BILLION dollars in damages. This is what's worrying me (although I don't live anywhere near Texas). My experiences with Irene and Sandy show that even Cat 1's can be pretty bad.

Best of luck to all you guys in Texas. Hopefully the state is more prepared for such a hurricane after storms like Allison and Ike.

[tater]

Yeah, there's a lot of focus on the category, but as I recall Sandy was sub-tropical when it made landfall, and was incredibly destructive.

[SaturnianBlue]

38 minutes ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

I think Harvey will reach Major Hurricane intensity, even if it is running out of time. Over the last several hours, its barometric pressure has dropped dramatically to an intense 947 millibars. For comparison, this is 3 mb lower than last year's Hurricane Nicole, a long-lasting Category 4 hurricane with sustained winds of 140 mph. This sharp drop in pressure seems to indicate a new phase of rapid (or possibly explosive) intensification is beginning. But whatever Category Harvey makes landfall at, it is incredibly worrying.

That's what I've been fearing about as well. However, since Harvey may reach Category 3 intensity, it may be even worse than Hurricane Ike - which was "only" at Cat 2 at landfall. Plus the latter was moving much faster than Harvey, yet it still caused tremendous flooding and over two dozen BILLION dollars in damages. This is what's worrying me (although I don't live anywhere near Texas). My experiences with Irene and Sandy show that even Cat 1's can be pretty bad.

Best of luck to all you guys in Texas. Hopefully the state is more prepared for such a hurricane after storms like Allison and Ike.

Apparently the winds take a while to pick up to the pressure drop, though the winds have been stuck at 110 MPH (Nope, it is now the first major hurricane of the year, at 120 MPH, and the pressure has fallen to 943) despite continuous drops in pressure. Wouldn't be surprised if it hits category 4 status—but I agree, it's extremely dangerous regardless.

The thing about Ike was that it was HUGE, and the storm surge was up to 22 ft, while 6-12 is predicted for Harvey. Of course, Harvey is likely to stall, which would be really bad for rainfall. 

Edit:

 

Edited August 25, 2017 by SaturnianBlue

[ProtoJeb21]

23 minutes ago, SaturnianBlue said:

Apparently the winds take a while to pick up to the pressure drop, though the winds have been stuck at 110 MPH (Nope, it is now the first major hurricane of the year, at 120 MPH, and the pressure has fallen to 943) despite continuous drops in pressure. Wouldn't be surprised if it hits category 4 status—but I agree, it's extremely dangerous regardless.

The thing about Ike was that it was HUGE, and the storm surge was up to 22 ft, while 6-12 is predicted for Harvey. Of course, Harvey is likely to stall, which would be really bad for rainfall. 

Edit:

 

And to think this is the same cyclone as that measly tropical storm that broke apart in the Caribbean last week.

But yeah, based on the pressure drop and the fact that conditions are still tropical cyclone friendly, it's quite possible we'll have a Cat 4 storm before landfall. That will just make things so much worse. Before Harvey became a Cat 3, storm surge totals were predicted to be around 6-12 feet in some areas. That's going to be so much higher now...

On the subject of slow-moving hurricanes, I have to bring up Hurricane Issac of 2012 and Hurricane Hannah of 2008. Both of these were Cat 1's that had periods of little to no movement and caused quite a lot of damage, yet were not retired. Issac I can kind of understand - compared to that year's Hurricane Sandy and the last hurricane to smack Louisiana, Katrina, this one was WAY less significant. But there's no excuse why Hannah wasn't retired. Its siege of Haiti resulted in the deaths of 500-600 people, about the same as Hurricane Matthew of last year. That makes it the deadliest storm of the 2008 season - even more deadly than Hurricane Ike! Why the hell wasn't the name "Hannah" retired?! It's like no one even cares about what the storm did. In fact, I read this article last year about storm names that should have but didn't get retired, and Hannah wasn't mentioned ANYWHERE. Good grief.

[SaturnianBlue]

3 minutes ago, ProtoJeb21 said:

And to think this is the same cyclone as that measly tropical storm that broke apart in the Caribbean last week.

But yeah, based on the pressure drop and the fact that conditions are still tropical cyclone friendly, it's quite possible we'll have a Cat 4 storm before landfall. That will just make things so much worse. Before Harvey became a Cat 3, storm surge totals were predicted to be around 6-12 feet in some areas. That's going to be so much higher now...

On the subject of slow-moving hurricanes, I have to bring up Hurricane Issac of 2012 and Hurricane Hannah of 2008. Both of these were Cat 1's that had periods of little to no movement and caused quite a lot of damage, yet were not retired. Issac I can kind of understand - compared to that year's Hurricane Sandy and the last hurricane to smack Louisiana, Katrina, this one was WAY less significant. But there's no excuse why Hannah wasn't retired. Its siege of Haiti resulted in the deaths of 500-600 people, about the same as Hurricane Matthew of last year. That makes it the deadliest storm of the 2008 season - even more deadly than Hurricane Ike! Why the hell wasn't the name "Hannah" retired?! It's like no one even cares about what the storm did. In fact, I read this article last year about storm names that should have but didn't get retired, and Hannah wasn't mentioned ANYWHERE. Good grief.

Hurricane Hannah isn't even the most extreme case—Hurricane Gordon of 1994 resulted in the deaths of 1,122 Haitians, making it the 7th deadliest storm of the modern era in the Atlantic.

[ProtoJeb21]

Hurricane Harvey has reached winds of 125 mph and a pressure of 941 millibars - almost at Category 4 intensity. The newly updated Cone of [a hell of a lot of] Uncertainty shows a second landfall around Houston to be possible.

[tater]

Stay safe, anyone in TX, this thing is ugly.

For people in Europe:

The area affected is the curved bit from ~Tuscany to Vienna.

[Green Baron]

6 minutes ago, tater said:

For people in Europe:

 

Thanks, and may i add http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/.

I hope it goes out well.

[tater]

Yeah, I use the NWS for my local forecast, and use the nhc site for their data as well.

[DarkOwl57]

I'm about 500 miles northwest of Corpus, but we got hit pretty hard with a thunderstorm earlier today. I think this thing is gonna be a wicked 4, maybe a 5 if the conditions are extra bad tonight. Stay safe y'all!

[Just Jim]

Stay safe Texas!!!

[DarkOwl57]

3 minutes ago, Just Jim said:

Stay safe Texas!!!

thanks; I would say stay safe Florida but I guess the hurricane gods have taken pity on you guys..

[Just Jim]

Just now, DarkOwl57 said:

thanks; I would say stay safe Florida but I guess the hurricane gods have taken pity on you guys..

Actually, there's a second system forming right over our heads as we speak... but from what I just read it's going to drift off into the Atlantic before it gets too big.

[razark]

16 minutes ago, tater said:

For people in Europe:

Sometimes I forget how big this state really is.

It's been raining on and off in various degrees all day, but the wind has really picked up here in the last hour.  Just ran to the store, and saw people cleaning it out of water; gas stations are backed up into the streets in some places.

[DarkOwl57]

15 minutes ago, razark said:

Sometimes I forget how big this state really is.

It's been raining on and off in various degrees all day, but the wind has really picked up here in the last hour.  Just ran to the store, and saw people cleaning it out of water; gas stations are backed up into the streets in some places.

RIP. I just realized you and @Cydonian Monk both live in Houston.. Hope y'all's houses stay live

Watching FOX now; Harvey's about 50 miles away from Corpus, and it's looking like it's going to be an absolute monster of a storm...

[DarkOwl57]

Some stats: Harvey is the first hurricane to hit Texas since Ike in 2008. There's not a head of the NWS, no head of the NHS (Hurricane), no head of FEMA; Trump's going to apparently head to Texas in a week or so; And no mandatory evacuation order yet..... WHAT THE HECK?!?! THERE'S A FLIPPING CAT 3/4 HURRICANE HEADING STRAIGHT TOWARDS YOU! HOW DO YOU NOT RUN AWAY?!

[ProtoJeb21]

http://www.popsci.com/amp/hurricane-harvey-is-poised-to-hit-texas

*nail biting intensifies*

[Ten Key]

6 minutes ago, DarkOwl57 said:

Some stats: Harvey is the first hurricane to hit Texas since Ike in 2008. There's not a head of the NWS, no head of the NHS (Hurricane), no head of FEMA

This is incorrect. FEMA has had a director since June, and it does look like he knows what he's doing. 

https://www.fema.gov/brock-long

[tater]

Brock Long was confirmed FEMA head in June. I think the governor only asked for disaster status in the last 24 hours. 

I read that some evac orders were cancelled due to worsening conditions. The trouble with this storm is that it went from a drenching tropical storm/depression to a monster very quickly.

Ninjaed.

[DarkOwl57]

4 minutes ago, Ten Key said:

This is incorrect. FEMA has had a director since June, and it does look like he knows what he's doing. 

https://www.fema.gov/brock-long

 

3 minutes ago, tater said:

Brock Long was confirmed FEMA head in June. I think the governor only asked for disaster status in the last 24 hours. 

I read that some evac orders were cancelled due to worsening conditions. The trouble with this storm is that it went from a drenching tropical storm/depression to a monster very quickly.

Ninjaed.

FOX!!! CURSE YOU FOR MAKING ME LOOK STUPID!!

Ah crap it's a 4.... RIP