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Mars Colonial Transporter: What will it look like?

NSEP

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Nefrums

Nefrums

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After having read this maths exercise about MCT: http://planete-mars.com/what-could-the-mars-colonization-transport-mct-spacex-project-look-like-continued/

and combining that with Musks statment that ITS can reach well beyond Mars, it looks like that is a bit above what can be done with chemical engines.

Will ITS use chemical engines or something more exotic?

Edited by Nefrums
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Scotius

Scotius

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I wonder about it too :) A NERVA derivative? VASIMR? Something even more exotic - like fusion pulse drive? A high Isp engine would help enormously with fuel budget. It would be also easier to refuel the ship for return flight - almost any volatile would do for a thermal engine or VASIMR.

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Rakaydos

Rakaydos

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On 9/19/2016 at 5:36 AM, Nefrums said:

After having read this maths exercise about MCT: http://planete-mars.com/what-could-the-mars-colonization-transport-mct-spacex-project-look-like-continued/

and combining that with Musks statment that ITS can reach well beyond Mars, it looks like that is a bit above what can be done with chemical engines.

Will ITS use chemical engines or something more exotic?

It looks like that article ignores orbital refueling, unless I'm missing something. It also rejects the capsule shape based on lack of balistic coefficent, when other sources call for retroprupusive drag enhancement. (that is, even just the bloom of your angled rockets increase your aerodynamic drag, even without any propulsion from those rockets)

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Diche Bach

Diche Bach

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Maybe there ARE some little squigglies living down in Martian lava tubs and _maybe_ a handful of human "colonists" will manage to eek out something like an existence living in habitations inside those caves for a few years . . . right up until the long-term effects of those strange environments reveal terrible consequences . . . at which point a 'rescue' else 'intervention' mission of some sort will be necessary (lets be realistic the first couple waves of "explorers" much less "colonists" are not likely to be happy campers, and are more than likely to meet an unexpected and unfortunate end) . . . this gets us to maybe 2100 Common Era, but only about 0.001% of the way toward the end point which Mr. Musk and his brainiacs are envisioning in their little Kim Stanley Robinson "Red-Blue-Green-RainbowUnicornLand" Mars anim there.

I applaud his audacity, and respect his business accumen (though honestly a significant fraction of his success seems to have been just plain old LUCK) but its this kind of seemingly foolish exaggeration that makes him and his projects seem like clownery to me.

Hope is not a strategy and while vision is necessary, it is caution, realism, and attention-to-detail which pull off audacious milestones.

ADDIT: I would have a lot MORE respect for the man and more applause for his audacity IF the first impression I get from clicking that link were: we have a LOOOONNNNNGGGG-TERM vision for the human future (meaning perhaps 1000 or 10,000 years) and her is how it will look: queue Kim Stanley Robinson "Before-During-Getting There-After! YAAHH!" slide show.

Instead what I get on first glance is the slide show with zero indication that "this is likely to take hundreds and thousands of years to pull off . . . so remember . . . what we are proposing here is to do the [and the awe-inspiring importance and value of this part cannot be stressed too much!!!!] INITIAL and HISTORIC foundational work to create the momentum to MOVE progress in the direction necessary to eventually achieve these goals.

Setting the first 10 bricks in a foundation that will eventually be 10,000,000,000 bricks and for a wall/ladder/space castle that will eventually be 1000 times bigger than that __IS LAUDABLE!!!__

But imagining that those 10 bricks are actuall 10% of the total structure and that the whole thing will be built once one is an old man/woman (and/or presenting one's plan as if that is what one is imagining) just comes across as snake oil salesmanships.

Edited by Diche Bach
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Mitchz95

Mitchz95

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13 minutes ago, Diche Bach said:

ADDIT: I would have a lot MORE respect for the man and more applause for his audacity IF the first impression I get from clicking that link were: we have a LOOOONNNNNGGGG-TERM vision for the human future (meaning perhaps 1000 or 10,000 years) and her is how it will look: queue Kim Stanley Robinson "Before-During-Getting There-After! YAAHH!" slide show.

Instead what I get on first glance is the slide show with zero indication that "this is likely to take hundreds and thousands of years to pull off . . . so remember . . . what we are proposing here is to do the [and the awe-inspiring importance and value of this part cannot be stressed too much!!!!] INITIAL and HISTORIC foundational work to create the momentum to MOVE progress in the direction necessary to eventually achieve these goals.

Setting the first 10 bricks in a foundation that will eventually be 10,000,000,000 bricks and for a wall/ladder/space castle that will eventually be 1000 times bigger than that __IS LAUDABLE!!!__

But imagining that those 10 bricks are actuall 10% of the total structure and that the whole thing will be built once one is an old man/woman (and/or presenting one's plan as if that is what one is imagining) just comes across as snake oil salesmanships.

That's exactly what they're going to be addressing on Tuesday. Here's a summary from the IAC website:

"On the second day of the IAC, during a special keynote entitled “Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species”, Elon Musk will discuss the long-term technical challenges that need to be solved to support the creation of a permanent, self-sustaining human presence on Mars. The technical presentation will focus on potential architectures for colonizing the Red Planet that industry, government and the scientific community can collaborate on in the years ahead."

It's not "The MCT and It's Gonna Be F---ing Awesome, Trust Us". It's "Making Humans a Multiplanetary Species". The former is a means to help achieve the latter. Nothing more, nothing less.

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Nibb31

Nibb31

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On 19/09/2016 at 3:20 PM, Scotius said:

I wonder about it too :) A NERVA derivative? VASIMR? Something even more exotic - like fusion pulse drive? A high Isp engine would help enormously with fuel budget. It would be also easier to refuel the ship for return flight - almost any volatile would do for a thermal engine or VASIMR.

No way are they going nuclear. There would be so many red tape and legal roadblocks, there is no way it could fit in their schedule. Also, they have a workforce with expertise in aerospace. You don't just get to hire 500 nuclear energy experts in a couple of years. And VASIMR simply doesn't scale.

They are going chemical or not at all.

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Diche Bach

Diche Bach

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I'm a skeptic. I want undeniable clues right from the first click that these guys are not posers, i.e., they get that what they are doing is merely the very initial groundwork for a long-term human VISION that will necessarily take generations to complete, and hopefully will embroil ALL the nations of Earth into a common, peaceful purpose.

Instead what I get is a seemingly silly slide show that can easily be taken to suggest "we gonna do this next year!"

Its marketing, its fund-raising, and that doesn't necessarily mean it is true foolishness, but I'd be more confident that it is NOT foolishness if I was clued IMMEDIATELY to there realistic view.

ADDIT: in sum, as much as it is "good marketing" by inspiring those who are less skeptical than me, it is BAD marketing by causing skeptics (a lot of whom have a LOT of dough to toss around) to roll their eyes . . .

Edited by Diche Bach
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Mitchz95

Mitchz95

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39 minutes ago, Diche Bach said:

I'm a skeptic. I want undeniable clues right from the first click

Coming on Tuesday. That's all the link is right now, an announcement that they'll unveil their Mars program -- the "realistic view" -- next week.

Not sure what more you want until then.

Edited by Mitchz95
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Diche Bach

Diche Bach

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36 minutes ago, Mitchz95 said:

Coming on Tuesday. That's all the link is right now, an announcement that they'll unveil their Mars program next week.

Not sure what more you want until then.

Put dates on top of the changing Mars anim with a tilde in front . . .

~2020 A.D. ~3000(?) A.D. ~6000(?) A.D. ~10,000(?) A.D.
LWoZn.jpg i2koJ.jpg Y3g21.jpg QhoVv.jpg

Skepticism vanquished . . . well mitigated to the point of 'suspension of disbelief,' aka. "Aight, that seems possible. Cool!"

Edited by Diche Bach
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lugge

lugge

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Posted

OK, maybe thats still unknown, but I have a question.

We all know, Red-Dragon (and Orion) are not suitable for a journey to Mars. Maybe as descent vehicle, but not as crew hab.

Next thing we know is, the MCT is designed for about 100 people (well, at least on PowerPoint).

Well, I'm missing some in-between ship.

It's unlikely that, after a successful unmanned MCT landing, they will go with the first 100 colonists. There will likely be some Apollo-style proof-of-concept mission. Is there a dedicated ship for this step or are they planning to send MCT with 5 astronauts or so?

(Disclaimer: all assumed that Space-X stick to their PowerPoint ships and plans. I'm not seeing a Mars colony this century, so hold back the "not going to happen").

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Nefrums

Nefrums

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I have read somewhere that the first flights with MCT to mars would be few (4-5) people and lots of equipment.   MCT would be modular design where the could have ether cargo modules or crew modules.    

It was a while ago I read these things and I cannot find the source right now, so I might be mistaken.   

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Nibb31

Nibb31

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1 hour ago, lugge said:

Next thing we know is, the MCT is designed for about 100 people (well, at least on PowerPoint).

Actually, no we don't. There are no PowerPoints (at least none that have been published) and the "100 people" or "100 ton" figures are pure speculation.

 

50 minutes ago, Nefrums said:

I have read somewhere that the first flights with MCT to mars would be few (4-5) people and lots of equipment.   MCT would be modular design where the could have ether cargo modules or crew modules.    

The first flights are likely to be unmanned and simply to test the ISRU equipment, which is a prerequisite for the return trip.

50 minutes ago, Nefrums said:

It was a while ago I read these things and I cannot find the source right now, so I might be mistaken.   

There are no sources, except some very vague tweets from Musk. Everything you have read about MCT until next week is pure speculation.

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