The Future Of Humanity

[Jonfliesgoats]

It's easy to get pessimistic, but that really isn't warranted.  Mankind will become a spacefaring species.  We have already started this process.  During the Apollo program NASA got fully 4% of America's discretionary budget.  Now NASA gets ten percent of that.  These funds also have to work through a mature, less expeditionary organization.  It's unrealistic to think we can keep doing similar things with one tenth of the funds.

However, as you point out, more and more start up companies are offering new pathways to orbit.  Development of cis-lunar space continues apace and we are following moderate projections proposed as early as 1977.  GPS, satellite commercial services and commercial GIS demands will sustain this trend.

As history shows us, it takes warfare or commercial incentives to innovate quickly in aerospace.  The Second World War and Cold War got us the great age of space exploration.  Little was done to lower launch costs in those programs.  The commercial incentives predominate now and our collective efforts are focused on lowering the cost per kilogram to LEO.  

Humans will return to deep space.  The only question is what flag will be stenciled on the craft that goes there.  Don't despair!

 

Edited December 4, 2016 by Jonfliesgoats

[kerbiloid]

2 hours ago, Jonfliesgoats said:

The only question is what flag will be stenciled on the craft that goes there.

New Zealand.
They keep silence, probably preparing something.

[DDE]

On ‎01‎.‎12‎.‎2016 at 5:49 PM, Ten Key said:

I would argue that manned spaceflight is one way of countering that. There is a psychological aspect to exploration that should not be ignored. 

Problem is, this would apply to a tiny minority of the population. If you use that as a political ideology, the only natural outcome is for the terrestrial population to exterminate the spacers, and ban space travel forever more because of its "harmful" psychological effects.

[kerbiloid]

A funny paradox.
If treat extraterrestrial colonies like demographic safety valve, the absolute majority of humans would absolutely reject an offer about migration to another planet,
Also it's just fearful to entrust airlocks, hydrazine tanks and spacesuits to 90% of humanity. Or even to make them keep some ecological discipline on a to be terraformed planet.

Moon as a scientific base? In the best case a 10 km crater per whole Moon.
Lunar spaceport? The same.
Biolab will be mostly useless in 10 years after its creation. Grow baobabs to ensure that they grow as badly as crops and tomatoes?

Martian agriculture? Absolute majority of "green natural agriculture" fans will prefer stay on the Earth and eat synthetic potato made of GMO algae rather than grow it on Mars themselves.
At least after the words "We removed all percholrates from the soil in this sector, but keep your eye on spectroanalyzer".

So, looks like space colonies would forever stay a way for: intellectuals,  cultists, misfits and Bohemia.
Unlikely for criminals, due to cameras, microphones and personal camcorders and total absence of cash (see Continuum series for details). Unless one of such communities becomes criminal.

This leaves a mark on such colonies. First of all such people would not suffer much eating a potato-shaped algae soylent, but either take this phylosophically, or be fans of extreme manual agriculturing. Or both.

This should limit such colonies in size and shift them farther in time. To when a town commune can buy a thermonuke reactor for their town workshop and greenhouse and bring it to another celestial body.
Of course, once it will be possible.

So, in time the Earth will turn into green sleepy idyll. Where nothing happens, everything is in hands, nothing to do, robots do all job, AI knows everything you need, and this lasts forever.
While space colonies will be a splash of strange people possessed by different ideas: from runnning to stars to escaping from sins. Too weak to rebel against the Earth, but probably shrewish between themselves.
They will be keeping initiative and mobility (as any such community). And at some moment they will found order of Jedi.

Edited December 4, 2016 by kerbiloid