Will we ever have to evacuate the solar system?

[HoloYolo]

We are a very harmful species. We have basically ruined this planet the way we've been treating it. Unless we fix something fast, we most certainly will have to leave it, without turning back. But what if it's more than Earth that we have to leave? What if it was the Solar System, and we would have to find a new system to call our home? I have thought about it for a while, and I truly wonder what we would do. Would we unite to save the species? Would we just fade out, the world dying forever due to a final conflict or just us not willing to save ourselves? I feel like it's a question to be asked.

For example, Evacuate Earth, a Nat Geo docudrama, explores the possibility of us leaving the solar system during a present day time. Conventional fuels such as Plasma or LH2+LO would not work, as the target (one that probably does not exist mind you) is over 8 light years away. The proposed unorthodox  methods of travel, such as a Solar Sail, one that would not work in interstellar space as it requires solar particles pushing on the sail. Finally, the Orion project comes up. Nuclear weapons blasting on a spring shield, pushing the ship forward. They claim they can reach 7-8% the speed of light, making the trip faster than any other type of propulsion. The habitation for the 1/4th of a million people chosen to leave live in an O'Neill cylinder, a 20 mile long tube with it's own ecosystem, almost like a planet itself. Amazingly, the global powers unite to harvest the nuclear fuel and resources to peacefully save the human race. Sure there are terrorist attacks and protests but it does not disrupt the project enough for it to fail. Watch to find out the rest (sorry if I spoiled it, most docudramas have happy endings anyways).

Most of you know Interstellar, and how the 

Spoiler

future humans make a wormhole to help the past humans explore a new galaxy after blight destroys most of Earth's crops. It's a paradox but it's also a good movie.

Now they use the Hybrid Variable-impulse Chemical/Plasma Engines (12) (http://interstellarfilm.wikia.com/wiki/Endurance) to power the ship towards Saturn and later the solar (more like black hole) system. After 25-ish years, they find the planet where some person is, and they realize it's not what they wanted. To get to the final one, they sling around that black hole. Not saying anything else for the sake of spoiling.

 

Now these are two scenarios about us needing to leave the solar system (Interstellar is really just leaving Earth, although they leave the solar system). 

Two questions. Will we ever have to leave Earth? Secondly, will it ever happen like Evacuate Earth or Interstellar, or will it happen differently than the two I mentioned?

[MaxL_1023]

Issac Asimov was a proponent of the "free world" interstellar colonization theory. Spacefarers would hollow out asteroids, using their core material as reaction mass for a nuclear-powered ion-type drive system with fairly low thrust and acceleration but very high ISP. The end result is a self-contained system with all the required elements for life (assuming the asteroid has some volatiles). A asteroid 50-100 KM in diameter could be hollowed out to a crust a few kilometers thick and have a massive delta-V budget assuming the remaining material is used as reaction mass. 

Asimov's strategy would be to harvest outwards until you reach the outer Oort cloud, then moving to the Oort cloud of an adjacent system when they intersect during close stellar passes - even if they do not pass through each other they are closer together than the central stars. Then, you move inwards until you reach the inner system again. 

I doubt it could feasibly evacuate the Earth, as getting out of Earth's gravity well is far harder than escaping the solar system from Earth orbit, especially considering the more efficient, low thrust propulsion options, low energy transfers and gravity assists which become available. However, it could get anyone in space to another star eventually, thousands of years later.   

[HoloYolo]

5 minutes ago, MaxL_1023 said:

Issac Asimov was a proponent of the "free world" interstellar colonization theory. Spacefarers would hollow out asteroids, using their core material as reaction mass for a nuclear-powered ion-type drive system with fairly low thrust and acceleration but very high ISP. The end result is a self-contained system with all the required elements for life (assuming the asteroid has some volatiles). A asteroid 50-100 KM in diameter could be hollowed out to a crust a few kilometers thick and have a massive delta-V budget assuming the remaining material is used as reaction mass. 

Asimov's strategy would be to harvest outwards until you reach the outer Oort cloud, then moving to the Oort cloud of an adjacent system when they intersect during close stellar passes - even if they do not pass through each other they are closer together than the central stars. Then, you move inwards until you reach the inner system again. 

I doubt it could feasibly evacuate the Earth, as getting out of Earth's gravity well is far harder than escaping the solar system from Earth orbit, especially considering the more efficient, low thrust propulsion options, low energy transfers and gravity assists which become available. However, it could get anyone in space to another star eventually, thousands of years later.   

Never heard of that. What an interesting way to travel space. I could see a futuristic Earth use this to send people out to new solar systems slowly.

[daniel l.]

20 minutes ago, HoloYolo said:

Never heard of that. What an interesting way to travel space. I could see a futuristic Earth use this to send people out to new solar systems slowly.

In fact. I'd say Asteroid colonies and ships would be far more popular than planets. Just think: Few stars have habitable planets, Nearly all of them have asteroids. Not to mention that the generations of people living on th asteroid ship might not be interested in planets, They would consider the asteroid to be much more comfortable and would simply colonize an asteroid belt.

[HoloYolo]

Just now, daniel l. said:

In fact. I'd say Asteroid colonies and ships would be far more popular than planets. Just think: Few stars have habitable planets, Nearly all of them have asteroids. Not to mention that the generations of people living on th asteroid ship might not be interested in planets, They would consider the asteroid to be much more comfortable and would simply colonize an asteroid belt.

Very possible. Why risk exploring what could be a dangerous planet when you can get limitless resources out of asteroid belt?

[daniel l.]

Just now, HoloYolo said:

Very possible. Why risk exploring what could be a dangerous planet when you can get limitless resources out of asteroid belt?

That would be the perfect way to build a space empire. Transform asteroids into ships using their own natural resources as fuel, And send them out to nearby stars to colonize other asters and convert some of those to ships as well. The expansion could happen at a rapid pace.

[HoloYolo]

1 minute ago, daniel l. said:

That would be the perfect way to build a space empire. Transform asteroids into ships using their own natural resources as fuel, And send them out to nearby stars to colonize other asters and convert some of those to ships as well. The expansion could happen at a rapid pace.

I sense an Emperor's Space Dream...

[Starman4308]

The timescales for any reasonable threat to the solar system (i.e. the evolution of the Sun into a red giant) are so far out that they're not worth worrying about; we need to fix up our situation here before worrying about going interstellar. I don't know of anything that could even pose a threat to the solar system before the Sun becomes too hot to sustain life on Earth. Even a supernova has to be within about 3 parsecs to threaten Earth's biosphere, and the thing about space?

Space is really, really, really, really, really big, and really, really, really, really empty.

No satisfactory technology exists to permit large-scale colonization of any world other than Earth; the closest there is is Orion drive, and that comes with the wee side effect of irradiating the planet on which (optimistically) 99.99% of humanity still resides. It might get a little uncomfortable here, and while certain people aren't helping, we can get through; biofuels and other renewables are becoming more economical by the day, recycling is becoming increasingly popular, and birthrates have plummeted, at least in developed countries.

One moderately funny thing that gave me a bit of hope: a presentation by a classmate on a biocatalytic process to synthesize a petroleum product that wasn't viable now... but which would be once the price of petroleum went up. There will be some pain, no doubt, but life can and will carry on here.

Edited December 5, 2016 by Starman4308

[HoloYolo]

Just now, Starman4308 said:

The timescales for any reasonable threat to the solar system (i.e. the evolution of the Sun into a red giant) are so far out that they're not worth worrying about; we need to fix up our situation here before worrying about going interstellar. I don't know of anything that could even pose a threat to the solar system before the Sun becomes too hot to sustain life on Earth. Even a supernova has to be within about 3 parsecs to threaten Earth's biosphere, and the thing about space?

Space is really, really, really, really, really big, and really, really, really, really empty.

No satisfactory technology exists to permit large-scale colonization of any world other than Earth; the closest there is is Orion drive, and that comes with the wee side effect of irradiating the planet on which (optimistically) 99.99% of humanity still resides. It might get a little uncomfortable here, and while certain people aren't helping, we can get through; biofuels and other renewables are becoming more economical by the day, recycling is becoming increasingly popular, and birthrates have plummeted, at least in developed countries.

In Evacuate Earth it proposes that a Neutron Star snuck past our detection and managed to get within 75 years of Earth without us seeing it. Interstellar has a more realistic scenario when the blight struck, caused a global famine and war, and the survivors have to deal with either starving or suffocating. But yeah, this is more of a what if question, not a if when. 

[Starman4308]

Just now, HoloYolo said:

In Evacuate Earth it proposes that a Neutron Star snuck past our detection and managed to get within 75 years of Earth without us seeing it. Interstellar has a more realistic scenario when the blight struck, caused a global famine and war, and the survivors have to deal with either starving or suffocating. But yeah, this is more of a what if question, not a if when. 

Neither is really terribly realistic; neutron stars don't sneak up on you, and Interstellar's Magic Blight Of Doom (seriously: pathogens have been trying to kill plants and take their stuff for hundreds of millions of years, why would it only work now) could have been vastly more easily dealt with by tightly regulated underground shelters. I do like Interstellar, but for the life of me, I can't figure out how going to space was supposed to solve their problems any moreso than just building a good shelter here on Earth would have.

As to "what if", well, if something did happen, our best bet is aforementioned Orion drives, with an eventual pick-one-of-three destination; Mars (has basically all the elements needed for life), asteroids, or some gigantic generation ship intended for self-sufficiency.

None of these have, mind you:

A helpful set of Van Allen belts to deal with radiation

Oxygen

Liquid water in abundance

Tectonic activity to refresh the crust

An incredibly complicated, pre-existing biosphere

A handy-dandy atmosphere and moon to deal with meteorites

Known and mapped deposits of valuable resources

99.9999999% of the current human population (how precisely are you going to get these people off Earth?)

[HoloYolo]

40 minutes ago, Starman4308 said:

99.9999999% of the current human population (how precisely are you going to get these people off Earth?)

You don't. A bitter pill to swallow if we ever have so many people we can bring on a ship.

[Bill Phil]

If we, or a species evolved from us, lasts until the sun dies, sure. But even with the sun as a red giant, Jupiter and Saturn, as well as the rest of the outer system, will still be there. And they'll exist after the Sun's death...

Once the solar system no longer exists, yes. 

Even with a black hole or a neutron star, with 75 years or whatever we could evacuate all of humanity. We would have to go into overdrive mode, though, and pour money into tech development as well as space infrastructure.

Basically, probably not, unless Songs of Distant Earth happens.

Edited December 5, 2016 by Bill Phil

[todofwar]

Wonder how scalable that Asimov scenario is. Would it be possible to put the Earth itself into an escape trajectory? Attach some big <SNIP> lamps (BFL, patent pending) to the moon to let it simulate the sun for us and take it along for the ride. I'm assuming the earth is already screwed for life aside from us, why not make it a spaceship? This would be for a "we spotted a rogue black hole approaching that will absorb the sun" type scenario.

Edited January 5, 2017 by Frybert

[YNM]

2 hours ago, todofwar said:

... Attach some big f****** lamps (BFL, patent pending) to the moon to let it simulate the sun for us and take it along for the ride. ...

http://what-if.xkcd.com/13/

Spoiler

...

Ok, let’s mount a megawatt laser on every square meter of the surface of Asia. Powering this array of 50 trillion lasers would use up Earth’s oil reserves in approximately two minutes, but for those two minutes, the Moon would look like this:

The Moon shines as brightly as the midmorning sun, and by the end of the two minutes, the lunar regolith is heated to a glow. ...

 

Anyway, @OP : it's unlikely, for two reasons :

- We won't need it at all

- We can't, because (a) we don't like it or (b) we can't do it.

[SargeRho]

If "we", or whatever "we" are by then, are still around in 5 billion years, then yes. Otherwise, nah.

[todofwar]

Though now it seems far fetched, assuming humans are around in 5 billion years and we maintain a steady progress of tech, I think Dr Who pretty much covered it. We have already settled the galaxy, come back and use tech so advanced as to appear magic to preserve the earth in the face of the expanding sun, and eventually are forced to evacuate it, take our most treasured monuments, and let it burn up while people rich enough get a front row seat to watch.

[kerbiloid]

5 billions later there won't be Earth.
1 billion - an Earth to save.

[todofwar]

28 minutes ago, kerbiloid said:

5 billions later there won't be Earth.
1 billion - an Earth to save.

Depends on how good the tech keeping earth from burning up is. Presumably at some point the level of effort will no longer be deemed worthy. 

[kerbiloid]

1 hour ago, todofwar said:

Depends on how good the tech keeping earth from burning up is

Earth is geologically a weight-driven wall-clock, It runs until one weight (silicates) gets on the very top, while another weight (iron) - on the very bottom.
When its mantle gravitational differentiation will finish, geological processes will stop.
 

Spoiler

 

Also we can't keep Sun from burning out its hydrogen.

So, 1 bln is a deadline.

[todofwar]

1 hour ago, kerbiloid said:

Earth is geologically a weight-driven wall-clock, It runs until one weight (silicates) gets on the very top, while another weight (iron) - on the very bottom.
When its mantle gravitational differentiation will finish, geological processes will stop.
 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Also we can't keep Sun from burning out its hydrogen.

So, 1 bln is a deadline.

Again, we're talking about a civilization a billion years beyond our own. And again assuming we're still mostly human. The technology of such a civilization would allow for pretty much anything, might as well be magic. Granted, this whole discussion won't really go anywhere. Even arguments over tech 200 years in the future tend to get a tad bit silly, "we'll have mass movers that can rearrange a planet!" "what about the sun?" "our dyson sphere will protect the earth and we can adjust its orbit!" "what about the rest of the solar system?" "we will have already consumed all other planets for the dyson sphere!" and so on.  

[kerbiloid]

It's so dull to stay biohumans for billion years...

[magnemoe]

On 12/4/2016 at 10:58 PM, todofwar said:

Wonder how scalable that Asimov scenario is. Would it be possible to put the Earth itself into an escape trajectory? Attach some big <SNIP> lamps (BFL, patent pending) to the moon to let it simulate the sun for us and take it along for the ride. I'm assuming the earth is already screwed for life aside from us, why not make it a spaceship? This would be for a "we spotted a rogue black hole approaching that will absorb the sun" type scenario.

Puppeteer fleets of worlds is the best parallel. 
It would require breaking plenty of physical laws. 

Niven also wrote an world out of time who had some better ideas.

Edited January 5, 2017 by Frybert

[Nuke]

i have a hunch that the solar system may be livable throughout and after the expansion of the sun. we will simply have to migrate out with habitable zone. this is assuming the changes are slow and there are no big spikes in radiation.

[HebaruSan]

45 minutes ago, magnemoe said:

Niven also wrote an world out of time who had some better ideas.

If I recall correctly: Build a giant tube, stick it in Uranus, then induce fusion inside so exhaust shoots out the end of the tube and pushes the planet. Eventually maneuver it to fling Earth into orbit of Jupiter.

[HoloYolo]

7 minutes ago, HebaruSan said:

If I recall correctly: Build a giant tube, stick it in Uranus, then induce fusion inside so exhaust shoots out the end of the tube and pushes the planet. Eventually maneuver it to fling Earth into orbit of Jupiter.

I think we can do that realistically.