totm nov 2023 SpaceX Discussion Thread

[darthgently]

3 hours ago, tater said:

Also, every other rocket except F9 drops stages in the ocean as SOP.

Good point.

My question would be, practically speaking,  how have these odds changed since FWS ok'd the first flight?  Seems a bit mercurial.

[darthgently]

1 hour ago, darthgently said:

Good point.

My question would be, practically speaking,  how have these odds changed since FWS ok'd the first flight?  Seems a bit mercurial.

I think I may have answered my own question with some googling.  The whales in question are likely whale sharks.  They are slow filter feeders near the surface along the continental shelves in the gulf.  Their migration pattern puts them in the northern Gulf of Mexico in the summer months after which they head south October-ish.  Many are tagged so I'm totally guessing FWS will delay until signals indicate they've moved on.  Maybe?

[Nuke]

6 hours ago, tater said:

Yes, and those also tend to result in the possibility of multiple human deaths vs the incredibly unlikely chance a certain type of shark (likely a singleton) happens to be in a few square meters of water, near the surface, during the few seconds of SH impact. In the case of the shark, it's important to realize they can't have a zero probability of harm standard, or they'd have to disallow all watercraft. Boats/ships can and do collide with sea life, and the gulf is full of watercraft. Also, every other rocket except F9 drops stages in the ocean as SOP.

i guess we will just have to... jump the shark.

[darthgently]

It just occurred to me, and I wonder if it would be an exaggeration, or accurate, to consider the OLM+chopsticks as making the entire horizontal vs vertical integration debate a bit obsolete. 

I mean you get all the benefits of vertical because everything is vertical from day 1 and you mostly get the benefits of horizontal as each subsection can be built separately, and vertically, lower down in purpose built bays with great access, then stacked more fully later in a high bay or even on the OLM.  With final integration at the OLM.  No need to transport/erect horizontal to vertical (unimaginable with SS) or crawl a precious wedding cake for hours from the VAB to the launchpad.

Edited November 10, 2023 by darthgently

[StrandedonEarth]

Some would die to work at SpaceX. That might be closer to the truth than they think…  (freewalled)

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/spacex-musk-safety/.
 

Musk is in too much of a hurry to think about safety. I think back to how many died building the Hoover dam…

[darthgently]

1 hour ago, StrandedonEarth said:

Some would die to work at SpaceX. That might be closer to the truth than they think…  (freewalled)

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/spacex-musk-safety/.
 

Musk is in too much of a hurry to think about safety. I think back to how many died building the Hoover dam…

Looks grim in that article.  I've worked dangerous jobs and always considered myself to be the one responsible for my safety in the sense that I made sure I had good gear even if the company didn't provide it (steel toe boots, safety glasses, hardhat, etc). 

Mostly it sounds like SpaceX was relying on people using common sense with a workforce having a lot of people too young have as much common sense, safety wise, as they'd eventually gather. 

While I don't blame SpaceX for trusting employees to look out for themselves and each other, that doesn't happen by itself and requires good leadership.  Which clearly didn't happen.  Trust is a feedback loop.  They should have been verifying their trust was well placed and that people cared enough about others, themselves, and the mission, to prevent injuries. 

The young workers (25-30 y.o. and less) at sites like this (construction, oil rigs, rocket farms in tents) are the ones that think it can't happen to them and "forget".  The older ones are much more likely to be taking the time to check the load capacity on a hoist and mentally estimating the load being attached to said hoist.

All that said, I wish Reuters had put the injury rates in standard injuries per hours worked instead of per 100 employees.  It makes it hard to compare with other sites like an oil platform, or hi-rise construction.  I'm not convinced it is completely fair to compare Boca Chica to "the space industry" in this regard.  But the article is concerning

[mikegarrison]

4 hours ago, darthgently said:

It just occurred to me, and I wonder if it would be an exaggeration, or accurate, to consider the OLM+chopsticks as making the entire horizontal vs vertical integration debate a bit obsolete. 

I mean you get all the benefits of vertical because everything is vertical from day 1 and you mostly get the benefits of horizontal as each subsection can be built separately, and vertically, lower down in purpose built bays with great access, then stacked more fully later in a high bay or even on the OLM.  With final integration at the OLM.  No need to transport/erect horizontal to vertical (unimaginable with SS) or crawl a precious wedding cake for hours from the VAB to the launchpad.

Buildings and ships usually get assembled outdoors and more-or-less on-site. Aerospace vehicles usually don't.

Doing the stacking on the launch pad is pretty much a necessary pre-req for the SpaceX vision of turnaround within hours, so it's not too surprising that they decided to try doing it right from the start.

It only makes the other methods "obsolete" if it ends up working.

[tater]

I would have to assume that cargo would be loaded in one of the bays where ships are assembled, then the whole thing moved to the pad as well.

[darthgently]

6 minutes ago, mikegarrison said:

It only makes the other methods "obsolete" if it ends up working.

Moving the Saturn V in stages to an OLM+chopsticks and vertically integrating at the pad could have been a win.  And that aspect of the set up has already worked. 

For the record, I'm still on the fence about catching boosters with the OLM.  Until I see F9s more consistently hitting a more exact bullseye I'm unwilling to make a bet on that.  The gap between the sticks is a much smaller target, relatively speaking, than the big circle on the barges.

[StrandedonEarth]

1 hour ago, darthgently said:

Mostly it sounds like SpaceX was relying on people using common sense with a workforce having a lot of people too young have as much common sense, safety wise, as they'd eventually gather. 

AFAIK the law says “You have the right to refuse unsafe work”.  Somehow I get the feeling SpaceX will find a way to fire people that exercise that right. Not to mention that Common sense doesn’t grow in everybody’s garden…

As to the chopstick catch, I believe the chopsticks start more spread and close when the booster drops between them. Again, AFAIK. 

[darthgently]

15 minutes ago, StrandedonEarth said:

AFAIK the law says “You have the right to refuse unsafe work”.  Somehow I get the feeling SpaceX will find a way to fire people that exercise that right. Not to mention that Common sense doesn’t grow in everybody’s garden…

There was the quoted employee who said that if you made a good case on a safety issue, you'd likely prevail.  I don't think the firing would necessarily ensue as you do unless factors other than a real safety issue are involved also.  And I got that from reading the article.  In fact, one of the firings in the article was of an engineer in charge of safety for not doing his job.  The other firing in the article had other factors involved (scuffle with supervisor, iirc).

Also, if you search for SpaceX, or any of Musk's companies, on Reuters you won't find a single article that isn't taking a hard swing at them.  Reuters lost its "balanced news" rep more than a decade ago.  They are a high end hit piece for hire rag now, like much of legacy media.  When people stopped buying and relying on newspapers they had to find other ways to get paid

That said, there is good reporting mixed in that article and plenty to ponder so old habits die hard; good thing in this case at Reuters.  They used to be up there in the gold standard zone

33 minutes ago, StrandedonEarth said:

As to the chopstick catch, I believe the chopsticks start more spread and close when the booster drops between them. Again, AFAIK. 

If the sticks can close on a booster that isn't well centered between them then I agree.  If it has to hover fairly close to the center point it is harder to bet on for me

[darthgently]

That said, Musk has stated before that if it doesn't work they'll just put landing legs on it.  The stacking is the main function of the sticks

[darthgently]

 

 

[mikegarrison]

2 hours ago, darthgently said:

That said, Musk has stated before that if it doesn't work they'll just put landing legs on it.  The stacking is the main function of the sticks

And I have stated before that adding landing gear to an aerospace vehicle as an afterthought usually does not go well. They do have some idea how to do landing legs on the outside of a booster though, so it's probably not outside their ability.

Edited November 11, 2023 by mikegarrison

[darthgently]

15 minutes ago, mikegarrison said:

And I have stated before that adding landing gear to an aerospace vehicle as an afterthought usually does not go well. They do have some idea how to do landing legs on the outside of a booster though, so it's probably not outside their ability.

I don't think it would qualify as an afterthought

[magnemoe]

9 hours ago, darthgently said:

It just occurred to me, and I wonder if it would be an exaggeration, or accurate, to consider the OLM+chopsticks as making the entire horizontal vs vertical integration debate a bit obsolete. 

I mean you get all the benefits of vertical because everything is vertical from day 1 and you mostly get the benefits of horizontal as each subsection can be built separately, and vertically, lower down in purpose built bays with great access, then stacked more fully later in a high bay or even on the OLM.  With final integration at the OLM.  No need to transport/erect horizontal to vertical (unimaginable with SS) or crawl a precious wedding cake for hours from the VAB to the launchpad.

I say superheavy is a bit to large to erect, yes the Soviet erected N1, but for so large rockets its better to build vertical, smaller ones works better horizontally. 
Now we will probably see more designer scaffolding inside the building for working on ships. 
 

[tater]

They added legs to F9 as an afterthought.

 

[Ultimate Steve]

Is a weekend launch a possibility or are they not allowed to do that, I forget? Every day after Saturday the 18th until Monday the 27th is wide open, but Friday could be complicated if it happens in the evening.

If it goes up on Friday I hope it is before 5:40, I work then. Sadly it isn't a job where I can have my phone out (bus driver).

[kerbiloid]

@Codraroll

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/spacex-musk-safety/

Happily, this is not an authoritarian Soviet space fabric.

Mars worth it.

P.S.

My best part of it:

Quote

Musk himself at times appeared cavalier about safety on visits to SpaceX sites: Four employees said he sometimes played with a novelty flamethrower and discouraged workers from wearing safety yellow because he dislikes bright colors.

[Codraroll]

1 hour ago, kerbiloid said:

@Codraroll

https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/spacex-musk-safety/

Happily, this is not an authoritarian Soviet space fabric.

Mars worth it.

P.S.

My best part of it:

Again with the whataboutism. Are you really incapable of formulating other arguments?

[kerbiloid]

45 minutes ago, Codraroll said:

Again with the whataboutism. Are you really incapable of formulating other arguments?

Ask Reuters, I just posted the link.

[Nuke]

was always a safety third kind of guy myself.

[tater]

There are a few discussions (reddit/NSF) about the reuters piece (not that I trust any of the wire services on space reporting anyway), and the 4.8:100 they claim is 6X higher than the space industry is odd, since the ULA Atlas V facility was 3.1 when it was in operation, Relativity's at 3.4 for Stennis and  5.4 at their "Wormhole" factory. BO in TX is 1.8. As a reality check, the auto industry is 5.9, ship and boat building is 5.6.

 

[kerbiloid]

Unexpectedly, Reuters revealed the whole industry dirty secrets, lol.

Also. What a strange whataboutism.

[Codraroll]

5 hours ago, kerbiloid said:

Ask Reuters, I just posted the link.

Dragging in the link in an off-topic response to the justified criticisms of the neo-Soviet death cult in other threads is whataboutism, however.