Blue Origin thread.

[insert_name]

Tickets will go on sale in 2019, manned testing starting soon.

http://spacenews.com/blue-origin-plans-to-start-selling-tickets-in-2019-for-suborbital-spaceflights/

[CatastrophicFailure]

Couple more interesting tidbits:

 

 

Quote

first human flight at the end of this year.

 

[tater]

 

[CatastrophicFailure]

Great, now all I need is a second mortgage! 

To the BatCave PoorHouse! 

[tater]

I bet it's under 250k, since that's where Virgin is. It's a balance between leaving money on the table, and trying to get more customers. Early adopters will likely like the fact that a retired "Joe Blow" can't afford it, as a way to signal wealth, but in the long term, I think they should work for the price to come down as low as they can make it and still make money.

[mikegarrison]

1 hour ago, tater said:

I bet it's under 250k, since that's where Virgin is. It's a balance between leaving money on the table, and trying to get more customers. Early adopters will likely like the fact that a retired "Joe Blow" can't afford it, as a way to signal wealth, but in the long term, I think they should work for the price to come down as low as they can make it and still make money.

I suspect that Bezos knows who to talk to to find some folks who are experts on setting retail prices for things.

[tater]

18 minutes ago, mikegarrison said:

I suspect that Bezos knows who to talk to to find some folks who are experts on setting retail prices for things.

Yeah, hence the higher price than I was expecting. I did some math and decided they could like do OK with a much lower price---but why, when they'll likely be flying before, or at the same time as Virgin?

 

[sh1pman]

1 hour ago, tater said:

Yeah, hence the higher price than I was expecting. I did some math and decided they could like do OK with a much lower price---but why, when they'll likely be flying before, or at the same time as Virgin?

 

Yep, the price doesn’t need to be low, it just has to be lower than that of your closest competitor 

(Also applies to SpaceX and their launch pricing)

Edited July 13, 2018 by sh1pman

[mikegarrison]

1 hour ago, sh1pman said:

Yep, the price doesn’t need to be low, it just has to be lower than that of your closest competitor

Depends on the elasticity. Airlines deal with this all the time. If the demand for flying from A to B is about 150 people (+/- 10) per day, and they only assign an airplane that can fit 140 people, they are leaving money on the table and inviting competition. But if they put an airplane that can fit 160 people, then almost every day they will be flying empty seats. Or they can price some of the seats cheaper than others, to try to regulate the demand and fill up the empty seats when they are empty but extract the most money from the full seats when they are full. And that's what they try to do.

If the number of people willing to buy a seat on the Shepard for $220,000 is 1/launch, but the number willing to do it for $50,000 is 7/launch, then they actually make more money with the cheaper fare. But if the number willing $50000 is only 3/launch, they are better off setting the price a $220,000 and turning away two of the three customers.

[StrandedonEarth]

21 minutes ago, mikegarrison said:

Airlines deal with this all the time. If the demand for flying from A to B is about 150 people (+/- 10) per day, and they only assign an airplane that can fit 140 people, they are leaving money on the table and inviting competition. But if they put an airplane that can fit 160 people, then almost every day they will be flying empty seats. Or they can price some of the seats cheaper than others, to try to regulate the demand and fill up the empty seats when they are empty but extract the most money from the full seats when they are full.

Hmm, yes, also known as "flying standby," where you wait around the airport, and if there are any seats left on a plane departing soon, you can buy a ticket for cheap. But if there are no seats left, you're not going anywhere anytime soon.

I imagine it will be awhile before BO or VG have any standby seats available...

[CatastrophicFailure]

5 minutes ago, StrandedonEarth said:

imagine it will be awhile before BO or VG have any standby seats available...

. . .

crap

Ok, on to Plan C...

Spoiler

 

[Xd the great]

Is the current rocket orbital class? Please break spaceX monoply on reuseable rocket boosters.

[tater]

10 minutes ago, mikegarrison said:

If the number of people willing to buy a seat on the Shepard for $220,000 is 1/launch, but the number willing to do it for $50,000 is 7/launch, then they actually make more money with the cheaper fare. But if the number willing $50000 is only 3/launch, they are better off setting the price a $220,000 and turning away two of the three customers.

This.

That said, I think the nearly quarter of a million dollars for 11 minutes market is fairly small, hopefully a price war with Virgin ensues, as I think the lower it goes, the more takers, the more operational experience, etc.

2 minutes ago, Xd the great said:

Is the current rocket orbital class? Please break spaceX monoply on reuseable rocket boosters.

The current vehicle is New Shepard, which is NOT orbital. The next vehicle, New Glenn, IS orbital.

[Xd the great]

Come on, make the new glenn already.

Are new shepards purely for testing or for what?

[tater]

5 minutes ago, Xd the great said:

Come on, make the new glenn already.

Are new shepards purely for testing or for what?

According to interviews, etc, NS as an operational rocket is to teach BO about using rockets like aircraft. The goal is operational understanding. So they can get the feel for turning vehicles around rapidly, and reflying them to learn how to do it.

[Xd the great]

3 minutes ago, tater said:

According to interviews, etc, NS as an operational rocket is to teach BO about using rockets like aircraft. The goal is operational understanding. So they can get the feel for turning vehicles around rapidly, and reflying them to learn how to do it.

So its like a grasshopper rocket. Got it.

Dude, spaceX used 100 million to put the first stuff into orbit.

[tater]

16 minutes ago, Xd the great said:

So its like a grasshopper rocket. Got it.

Dude, spaceX used 100 million to put the first stuff into orbit.

The booster is indeed a (better) grasshopper.

NG is moving along on schedule as far as outside observers can tell. Claimed orbital flight is 2020, and they seem to be hitting milestones. Comparing dollars, it would be closer to compare F9 costs, including landing, I suppose. Blue has no shortage of money, obviously. Can't wait to see both vehicles---actually, THREE, counting BFR---flying in the next few years. It's a great time to be alive for rocket geeks.

[Xd the great]

Just now, tater said:

The booster is indeed a (better) grasshopper.

NG is moving along on schedule as far as outside observers can tell. Claimed orbital flight is 2020, and they seem to be hitting milestones. Comparing dollars, it would be closer to compare F9 costs, including landing, I suppose. Blue has no shortage of money, obviously. Can't wait to see both vehicles---actually, THREE, counting BFR---flying in the next few years. It's a great time to be alive for rocket geeks.

Im very excited about all this fly back booster mayhem.

[tater]

33 minutes ago, Xd the great said:

Im very excited about all this fly back booster mayhem.

No kidding. It's cool AF.

[Xd the great]

Just now, tater said:

No kidding. It's cool AF.

Gridfins, landing legs... EXPLOSIONS

[magnemoe]

16 hours ago, mikegarrison said:

Depends on the elasticity. Airlines deal with this all the time. If the demand for flying from A to B is about 150 people (+/- 10) per day, and they only assign an airplane that can fit 140 people, they are leaving money on the table and inviting competition. But if they put an airplane that can fit 160 people, then almost every day they will be flying empty seats. Or they can price some of the seats cheaper than others, to try to regulate the demand and fill up the empty seats when they are empty but extract the most money from the full seats when they are full. And that's what they try to do.

If the number of people willing to buy a seat on the Shepard for $220,000 is 1/launch, but the number willing to do it for $50,000 is 7/launch, then they actually make more money with the cheaper fare. But if the number willing $50000 is only 3/launch, they are better off setting the price a $220,000 and turning away two of the three customers.

Think its decent chance they will drop price later, at some time they have problem selling tickets for 220K, also is more status to ride early rater than some year down the line. 

[Shpaget]

1 hour ago, magnemoe said:

Think its decent chance they will drop price later, at some time they have problem selling tickets for 220K, also is more status to ride early rater than some year down the line. 

Of course. They start off with high price, bring in all the folks willing to dish out obscene amount of money just to be among the first, then they drop the price to 100k, to bring in all those not so filthy rich that still get the cosy feeling of being better than mere peasants, but were unwilling to pay 200+k. When that pool of individuals dries up they can start offering a realistically priced trip.

Or, BFS and New Glenn start flying and make New Shepard obsolete.

[tater]

4 minutes ago, Shpaget said:

Or, BFS and New Glenn start flying and make New Shepard obsolete.

NS only becomes obsolete when crew versions of the 2 new vehicles are flying.

[CatastrophicFailure]

24 minutes ago, tater said:

NS only becomes obsolete when crew versions of the 2 new vehicles are flying.

Flying and certified to carry passengers, which may be a good long while in the BFR’s case. NS still continues along after, at greatly reduced prices. Today, in addition to flying across the country, you can still pay a “few” bucks for a quick flightseeing tour in an “obsolete” aircraft. 

I think NS and suborbital tourist flights still have a long money-making period ahead. 

[Xd the great]

Dont forget the dragon capsule which can offer you a cislunar/space station docking experience.

In short, who wants to go to space? Me. How? I DONT CARE JUST GIVE ME SOMETHING TO RIDE ON.

Still setting the ticket price so low is not ideal for profit.