Mars Colonization Discussion Thread

[DDE]

3 hours ago, Green Baron said:

Exactly, @DDE, nice example for a major failure. But i meant more a Marsian red, just to avoid politics ;-)

Edit: what's written on the poster ? I don't speak Russian ...

"Through worlds. Through centuries."

[tater]

I have some cool Soviet stuff, I used to host students from Moscow Aviation Institute back in the day. We'd get belts, all kinds of pins, etc.

[Kerbal7]

On 12/15/2017 at 7:12 AM, Green Baron said:

I haven't seen the video but read most the reliable publications on Mars. There isn't much real hard data, one can get through with it in a day or two, then it starts becoming repetitive. So i won't link anything again here.

What disturbs me is "easily disproven", for that you need a conclusive proof, which does not exist. So it remains a claim, doesn't it ?

Mars does not have the resources to maintain a colony, you'd need a cocktail of today barely known complexity to independently support something that has never been made before. We know for sure that is impossible to run a settlement in Antarctica without support from outside. The same would be valid for deserts like the Rubh-al-Khali for example, even on the ocean(*). It is surely not possible on Mars, no matter how many billionaires dream otherwise.

Mars radiation level it >13.000 higher than earths (8.000mrad to 0.62mrad per year). That will kill some of your colonists if no care is taken and probably even if. They arrive in very bad shape after 6 months in space with a damaged immune system and all. Nobody knows right now if they survive.

I'd say that the picture of a colony is much bigger than a few single points taken out from colourful magazines and pictures :-)

 

(*) i know of crews who have caught fish crossing the Atlantic. And of others who haven't caught a single one, despite of drawing a fishing line behind all the way.

I couldn't agree more. This "Colony on Mars" talk is not sensible in the slightest. We don't have anywhere near the capabilities to pull this off even if we earnestly wanted to. I read Scott Kelly's Endurance: A Year In Space and it talks about some of the realities of living on the ISS. If I remember correctly, there are two CO2 scrubbers on the ISS and one of them is broken half the time and needing repair. The CO2 levels on the ISS run very high most times giving headaches and other toxic symptoms.

If we can't even keep the CO2 levels on the ISS at a reliably comfortable level 400km from earth, how are we going to do it 225,000,000km from earth?? And that small technical problem is just a snowflake in the blizzard of hurdles needing solved to make a colony happen.

 

 

Edited February 19, 2018 by Kerbal7

[tater]

^^^ this is why ideas about colonization "soon" are pretty absurd. I have no doubt the engineering challenges can be addressed with enough effort, but those technologies need to be sorted out closer to home, when spare parts are a supply run in a few weeks away.

 

[Green Baron]

Absolutely. And where people can be brought home in a week or two if they get sick, like happened two years ago on one of the antarctic stations. That was a huge and expensive logistical effort.

So many things that are banal on earth or in its vicinity, but would mean a dead body when underway in space. Mars mission on Marsian atmospheric entry: "Oh look, there enters poor Egon whom we tossed out after he died of inflamed appendix 2 months ago". "Oh yes, how beautiful !".

[tater]

2 minutes ago, Green Baron said:

Absolutely. And where people can be brought home in a week or two if they get sick, like happened two years ago on one of the antarctic stations. That was a huge and expensive logistical effort.

So many things that are banal on earth or in its vicinity, but would mean a dead body when underway in space. Mars mission on Marsian atmospheric entry: "Oh look, there enters poor Egon whom we tossed out after he died of inflamed appendix 2 months ago". "Oh yes, how beautiful !".

Acute medical problems can be addressed via sending a physician, actually two, in case the acutely sick person happens to be the doc, lol. Course you'd need a general surgeon, basically. Maybe 2 docs who both did internal medicine and surgery residencies.

We can't get docs to work in rural America, lured with high wages, getting them to go to Mars would be rather more difficult.

[Kerbal7]

1 hour ago, Green Baron said:

Absolutely. And where people can be brought home in a week or two if they get sick, like happened two years ago on one of the antarctic stations. That was a huge and expensive logistical effort.

So many things that are banal on earth or in its vicinity, but would mean a dead body when underway in space. Mars mission on Marsian atmospheric entry: "Oh look, there enters poor Egon whom we tossed out after he died of inflamed appendix 2 months ago". "Oh yes, how beautiful !".

I heard someone from NASA say there are 40,000 spare parts kept on earth to service the ISS and keep it running. And that's just to keep less than a dozen people alive in low earth orbit. So imagine the spare parts you'd need keeping an entire colony up and running at Mars, 225,000,000km from earth. Assuming they all wouldn't be dying from radiation induced cancer 10 years after you got them there anyways. 

But Elon Musk is promising everyone 40 acres and a mule with two chickens in every pot on Mars. It's delusional!  

[PB666]

16 minutes ago, Kerbal7 said:

I heard someone from NASA say there are 40,000 spare parts kept on earth to service the ISS and keep it running. And that's just to keep less than a dozen people alive in low earth orbit. So imagine the spare parts you'd need keeping an entire colony up and running at Mars, 225,000,000km from earth. Assuming they all wouldn't be dying from radiation induced cancer 10 years after you got them there anyways. 

But Elon Musk is promising everyone 40 acres and a mule with two chickens in every pot on Mars. It's delusional!  

Maybe so . . . . . If you use the latest electronics you are asking for problems. If you run all your systems on Raspberry Pi then you could have 1000s of the stockpiled for little or no cost. I have heard this from electrical engineers, the stuff they keep in their homes is the old stuff. Typical off the shelf electronics are cheap and are cheap. If you thing Mars is hard, how hard is interstellar.

Of course if you are going to construct things on Mars you will have to have a pressurized workshop (preferably deep underground0 where one can use step pressure gradient on rather large doors.

[tater]

I think the colonization idea makes little sense, but I think you’re overly obsessed with Elon Musk. His goal of a “multi planetary species” is one that perhaps many of us who are science fiction fans share. That he aspires to it while he lives is, and is actively doing something non-trivial to move in that direction is admirable, even if the smart money says it cannot be done. Many technologies have exceeded expectations, maybe we (skeptics) are wrong.

Edited February 19, 2018 by tater

[Kerbal7]

54 minutes ago, tater said:

I think the colonization idea makes little sense, but I think you’re overly obsessed with Elon Musk. His goal of a “multi planetary species” is one that perhaps many of us who are science fiction fans share. That he aspires to it while he lives is, and is actively doing something non-trivial to move in that direction is admirable, even if the smart money says it cannot be done. Many technologies have exceeded expectations, maybe we (skeptics) are wrong.

I talk about Elon Musk building a colony on Mars because he's always talking about it. I don't see Dennis Muilenburg from Boeing or Tony Bruno from United Launch Alliance talking about building Martian colonies. If they were, I'd be talking about them saying they were unrealistic. 

Yeah, many people seem to find inspiration in Elon Musk's talk about him building a Martian city in the near future. But I don't because I know it's not even remotely possible. To me he comes across as a P.T.Barnum and Jim Jones mixture. A huckster making predictions and promising miracles he can't possibly deliver. I don't find that inspirational or admirable.

Just look around. Do you see anyone else talking about building a city on Mars anytime soon? NASA, ESA, Roscosmos, any of the other contractors? No, not one. Because they know it's loony. When I want a laugh or something to shake my head about regarding Martian missions I listen to Elon Musk. When I want to know what the real capabilities and near future possible missions are I don't.     

 

[PB666]

2 hours ago, Kerbal7 said:

Do you see anyone else talking about building a city on Mars anytime soon? NASA, ESA, Roscosmos, any of the other contractors? No, not one. Because they know it's loony.

No because he knows how to stir greater interest in those who believe there there is some immediate (broadly speaking) inevitability about it. [snip] If you ever talk to someone who has been interviewed the general response is what was shown on TV or video is taken out of context and not what was meant. Even if you point this out to the subscriber, clearly and beyond all doubt show the flaw in the subscription, then enamor becomes more important than the substance . . ."well I don't care". If you want to neutralize the fantasy first you have to alter the desires in society to be deceived (its a noticeably larger problem).

Let Musk have his dreams, can't be worse than the status quo, really, the current state is pretty bad. Ultimately it may not be better, but we will learn something in the process. But also note the other day when his core went splashing into the drink and his announcers danced around the failure, and then you can see through the 4th wall . . .  that stoking the fire of interest is indeed an active and not a passive process . . .and we especially are part of the process. Musk did not create the hype in KSP/Science and Spaceflight . . we created that hype ourselves.

 

Edited February 20, 2018 by Vanamonde

[Bill Phil]

1 hour ago, Kerbal7 said:

Just look around. Do you see anyone else talking about building a city on Mars anytime soon? NASA, ESA, Roscosmos, any of the other contractors? No, not one. Because they know it's loony. When I want a laugh or something to shake my head about regarding Martian missions I listen to Elon Musk. When I want to know what the real capabilities and near future possible missions are I don't.     

 

Actually, I have seen discussion of building cities on Mars. Not necessarily soon, but... there is discussion. Realistic discussion? Now that's a bit of a stretch.

4 hours ago, Kerbal7 said:

I heard someone from NASA say there are 40,000 spare parts kept on earth to service the ISS and keep it running. And that's just to keep less than a dozen people alive in low earth orbit. So imagine the spare parts you'd need keeping an entire colony up and running at Mars, 225,000,000km from earth. Assuming they all wouldn't be dying from radiation induced cancer 10 years after you got them there anyways. 

But Elon Musk is promising everyone 40 acres and a mule with two chickens in every pot on Mars. It's delusional!  

Yeah. But how many spare parts are needed to keep any settlement running on Earth? Quite a few. Of course, there is greater complexity for space settlements, and Mars is impractical as it is now.

It's also possible to improve the technology to reduce the required effort to keep the system running. 

For a space settlement, it would have to be able to build some of its own replacement parts. And it's going to require care. More so than on Earth, yes, but even the buildings on Earth need to be maintained. Mars, however, is just too far to be a practical settlement.

[tater]

2 hours ago, Kerbal7 said:

I talk about Elon Musk building a colony on Mars because he's always talking about it. I don't see Dennis Muilenburg from Boeing or Tony Bruno from United Launch Alliance talking about building Martian colonies. If they were, I'd be talking about them saying they were unrealistic.

I always say Mars colonization is goofy. The other CEOs are not actively doing anything, however, unless the government agrees in advance to write them large checks. There is nothing entrepreneurial about ULA or Boeing at all. Cost plus. Old school.

SpaceX has said (Shotwell, not just Musk, and she's the grownup in the room most of the time) that they are building BFR, and if any gov agency has interest and wants to contribute, that;s great, but they're making it anyway. Delta IV Heavy wasn't a "build it, and they will come" project, they were paid to build it, unlike FH. FH might have been delayed, but in the dev cost the government nothing, and the launch costs are a fraction of what the rockets the government actually paid to develop costs them.

LockMart has their Martian Base Camp concept, and that cool lander. The lander uses the Orion pressure vessel as the cockpit, and I think RL-10s for propulsion (just to make sure the lander is as expensive as possible, presumably, lol). Other than that, nothing will be built or experimented with unless they start getting checks. If they want to be the lander NASA uses on Mars, why not just make one? Why not make an extra SLS on their own dime to test it?

2 hours ago, Kerbal7 said:

Yeah, many people seem to find inspiration in Elon Musk's talk about him building a Martian city in the near future. But I don't because I know it's not even remotely possible. To me he comes across as a P.T.Barnum and Jim Jones mixture. A huckster making predictions and promising miracles he can't possibly deliver. I don't find that inspirational or admirable.

I find the aspiration admirable. He actually doesn't talk about building a city at all, have you actually listened to what he says? He sees SpaceX as the transportation system, and just assumes that if he makes that, someone else will build the cities. He's pretty consistent in that regard, FWIW.

 

2 hours ago, Kerbal7 said:

Just look around. Do you see anyone else talking about building a city on Mars anytime soon? NASA, ESA, Roscosmos, any of the other contractors? No, not one. Because they know it's loony. When I want a laugh or something to shake my head about regarding Martian missions I listen to Elon Musk. When I want to know what the real capabilities and near future possible missions are I don't.     

 

Again, he envisions such cities, but is not offering them. He's offering a system to use to start building them if someone wants to---which he assumes someone does want to do. He seems himself as the guy who owns the clipper ships, and is maybe willing to set up the shovel store in San Francisco in 1849.

[kerbiloid]

1 hour ago, tater said:

Other than that, nothing will be built or experimented with unless they start getting checks

They can try kickstarter. Or Steam.

1 hour ago, tater said:

He sees SpaceX as the transportation system, and just assumes that if he makes that, someone else will build the cities.

Let's build a bridge, then think to where.
Wait... Maybe the process is SpaceX aim, not the result?

3 hours ago, PB666 said:

4 hours ago, Kerbal7 said:

Do you see anyone else talking about building a city on Mars anytime soon? NASA, ESA, Roscosmos, any of the other contractors? No, not one. Because they know it's loony.

No because he knows how to stir greater interest in those who believe there there is some immediate (broadly speaking) inevitability about it.

Emotional interest and interest percentage are rather different things.
Almost everybody on this forum has an interest to Martian cities. Though,  things will look less inspiring if ask about donations.

Edited February 20, 2018 by kerbiloid

[tater]

He's said that numerous times. He and Bezos are similar in that respect, "millions of people living and working in space." Musk shows graphics with Mars colonies, and says he wants them, but has NOT said that he'd be building them, or even financing the trips. Anyone dumb enough can buy tickets.

[Green Baron]

In general i don't see so many differences between the opinions here. The majority tenor goes in the direction "we will not see a colony for the normal mortals in a foreseeable time".

What i want to personally add out of experience (and i think the more experienced colleagues here will agree) is that there is a discrepancy in what people say and what people actually do. This is especially the case with visionaries trying something new. As good and honest as their intentions might be, in the course of doing the work things come up that nobody could oversee before they show.

I mean, the vision of a world wide network of suborbital bfrs transporting herds of those in a hurry from continent to continent is a nice thing, right now it isn't more than a story.

While SpaceX engineers are working on the bfr it is probably best to wait for the first real solutions. As far as i estimate the boss, they won't hold back when they have something to show :-)

[kerbiloid]

3 hours ago, tater said:

He's said that numerous times. He and Bezos are similar in that respect, "millions of people living and working in space." Musk shows graphics with Mars colonies, and says he wants them, but has NOT said that he'd be building them, or even financing the trips. Anyone dumb enough can buy tickets.

No, I mean the process of building BFR rather than using it.

[DDE]

4 hours ago, tater said:

Musk shows graphics with Mars colonies, and says he wants them, but has NOT said that he'd be building them, or even financing the trips. Anyone dumb enough can buy tickets.

8 hours ago, PB666 said:

No because he knows how to stir greater interest in those who believe there there is some immediate (broadly speaking) inevitability about it.

And this brings us to a potential source of significant damage. Musk simply being a trucker service is not how the public perceives it anymore - especially since he needed a third party to build the propellant factory. Instead, SpaceX is perceived as an independent space agency that has long outmatched NASA. This sets Musk up for a massive failure to stand up to the public's extremely lofty expectations that is going to knock the wind out of the hype train.

This runs back to why I hate the "[soft] sci-fi raises support for actual science and spaceflight" argument - because it is patently untrue. The crowd that's in deep love with the X-Wing is at best a fairweather friend to the Soyuz - if not an outright problem, because they're conditioned into a wholly different mindset with a bunch of false assumptions. Should they run into reality and its own, entirely different set of challenges, which is more likely: a complete reconsideration of their mental image of the majority of the Universe, or a retreat back into fantasy with disregard or outright hostility to actual incremental development?

What happens should Musk backpedal further, or when he nearly inevitably fails to deliver (seeing as the hype has long outrun any plausible outcomes)? There is a finite amount of flying fraks the public has to give, and one should use them more sparingly. Considering Mars colonization will still be quite dependent on political will and thus hype, someone in the post-Musk era might find that quite a few bridges have been irreversibly burnt.

[tater]

PR doesn't matter, honestly. One, people in general are... not smart. They also have short memories. Two, the hardware matters, and the cost. If the cost is cheap enough, the rest is irrelevant.

[kerbiloid]

14 hours ago, Kerbal7 said:

P.T.Barnum

Does anybody know, will the BFR and its spacesuits be equipped with green glasses?

18 hours ago, tater said:

We can't get docs to work in rural America, lured with high wages, getting them to go to Mars would be rather more difficult.

It's possible to release them from a life prison.

Edited February 20, 2018 by kerbiloid

[tater]

7 minutes ago, kerbiloid said:

It's possible to release them from a life prison.

I'm sure most specialties are represented in prison somewhere, lol.

Mars as penal colony...

[sh1pman]

13 minutes ago, tater said:

I'm sure most specialties are represented in prison somewhere, lol.

Mars as penal colony...

I suggested it right after the BFR presentation, 100 or so pages back on SpaceX thread. Make governments pay to keep their criminals away from Earth. Use the money and convict labor to build up the colony and prepare the infrastructure for the arrival of "real" free colonists a couple of decades later...

[Kerbal7]

12 hours ago, tater said:

I find the aspiration admirable. He actually doesn't talk about building a city at all, have you actually listened to what he says? He sees SpaceX as the transportation system, and just assumes that if he makes that, someone else will build the cities. He's pretty consistent in that regard, FWIW.

If I am not mistaken Elon Musk does talk about building "his city" on Mars. Watch this clip and you can clearly hear him say, "one ship, two ships, then we start building up the city."

 

I am too young to have seen the Apollo landings and the space race. So for me it is inspirational and impressive to believe NASA is going to be just flying around the Mun soon. So I don't need pie in the sky talk of building Martian cities from a carnival barker. I want to know where we are really at and for me that is plenty. Flying around the Mun hits my "Cool" button plenty.

  

 

[kerbiloid]

31 minutes ago, sh1pman said:

I suggested it right after the BFR presentation, 100 or so pages back on SpaceX thread. Make governments pay to keep their criminals away from Earth. Use the money and convict labor to build up the colony and prepare the infrastructure for the arrival of "real" free colonists a couple of decades later...

And the guards have to defend only the spaceport.
So, the spaceport would be a stronghold with a launchpad on top.
The legendary accuracy of Falcons landing can make it possible to land on top of a tower and then move down by a lift. And then move up - to start.

Edited February 20, 2018 by kerbiloid

[DDE]

57 minutes ago, tater said:

I'm sure most specialties are represented in prison somewhere, lol.

Mars as penal colony...

Well, everything beats drop bears...

2 hours ago, tater said:

PR doesn't matter, honestly. One, people in general are... not smart. They also have short memories. Two, the hardware matters, and the cost. If the cost is cheap enough, the rest is irrelevant.

In theory, but in practice someone needs to expect the hardware to be useful and put up the initial costs. There's quite a bit of subjectivity involved when undertaking massive, decades-long projects.