Chinese Space Program (CNSA) & Ch. commercial launch and discussion

[CFYL]

42 minutes ago, mikegarrison said:

That looks like they expect astronauts will breathe out enough water and CO2 to make a tank of rocket fuel. That seems *highly* unlikely to me.

Say, an average adult consumes 0.2-0.3L oxygen per minute. (not all oxygen breathed in are consumed) That is 288L per day, or roughly 12.86mol. Consider an incomplete conversion where 30% of the 12.86 mol CO2 is made into CH4, that is 61.7g CH4 per day. Definitely not enough for "a tank of" rocket fuel, but half a lunar day (~14 Earth days) will give you ~1kg CH4. Still not enough.

Yeah it's true that we can't rely on astronauts to produce propellant. But IMHO this may act as a photosynthesis system that provides life support / auxiliary life support, which reduces the amount and mass of oxygen-producing plants or converters.

[mikegarrison]

There is a reference in that diagram to mining water, and there is speculation that the ice on the moon contains some carbon. But for the most part, both carbon and hydrogen are likely to be quite scarce on the moon. That doesn't make ISRU seem very promising, at least in terms of creating methane.

[steve9728]

Mars' winter dust storm begins and Zhurong rover has enter the sleep mode. The rover is expected to wake up and resume normal operations around December this year, when the mission area enters the early spring season on Mars and the environment improves.

16 March of the Zhurong rover's mission area shot by Tianwen-1

And 30 April of the mission area

Good night!

Edited May 29, 2022 by steve9728

[steve9728]

The third launch by CNSA this month: CZ-2C rocket successfully take three communication technology test satellites into LEO. 

[SunlitZelkova]

Around when Chang'e 5 launched, I recall seeing a couple American mass media articles claiming that Chang'e missions "revealed" Chinese intentions to conduct military operations around the Moon.

Here is a nice article clarifying the matter- https://www.thespacereview.com/article/4387/1

On a completely unrelated note, in December 2021 I made a comment awhile back speculating that the 921 rocket/LM-5DY came into existence out of a sudden desire to get to the Moon quicker than would have been possible with the LM-9-

Quote

Reading this article however, I kind of wonder about the LM-5DY's purpose and origins.

Perhaps CASIC decided to take advantage of signs NASA was looking into a crewed lunar program post-Asteroid Redirect, certainly their top executives and engineers are kept apprise of American developments, and there is no doubt the MSS does its best to keep tabs on what's happening at NASA.

They may have decided to take advantage of that politically to make a crewed landing happen quicker (elderly Chinese aerospace engineers want to put people on the Moon ASAP just as engineers and space fans alike presumably do in the US) by offering a, in theory, cheaper rocket for the job. The LM-5DY uses stretched LM-5 cores and, for the most part, new versions of engines that already exist. This would certainly be much safer than attempting to develop an entirely new super heavy launch vehicle (Long March 9).

In contrast with the completely new LM-9, the LM-5DY uses a proven concept- "triple core-ing" an existing rocket. This would be very attractive in the face of a hypothetical threat of American domination of lunar exploration. LEO is "free"- everyone knows that. But when a hab gets planted down on something as "local" as the Moon, and a nation starts regularly exploring and theoretically mining an area, no one knows what will happen. If I was a high ranking Chinese strategist, given the fate of something as simple as the Open Skies Treaty, I would not put much faith in "the other OST".

The Chinese government does appear to have taken interest in the establishment of a lunar economy. The urgency surrounding the issue wouldn't really be "get there first" as much as it would be "get there in the most efficient manner, as quick as feasible (but of course take the necessary time and don't rush)".

------

On another note, in case you are wondering what happened to it, the Long March 9 appears to have evolved into China's answer to Starship- basically a Saturn V class rocket using a Falcon 9 mission profile, if not during the first launches, which will likely be expendable, eventually. It will play no major role in the potential crewed lunar program apart from launching very large base modules.

And here is this from The Space Review article-

Quote

Later, in a 2007 article, authors from the Academy of Equipment Command and Technology, responsible for training China’s senior engineers and technical officers for the PLA’s space organizations, articulated a fear that, “The U.S. also intends to close off … the space region between the Earth and the Moon.”[5,6] A different publisher repeated this fear in a 2010 military training book saying, “According to this [U.S.] plan, near Earth orbits – including the broad space from the Earth to the Moon – will be under the administration of the Americans.”[7] It may be significant that a fear first noted by Chinese military space technologists was later published in a book from a national level military publisher.

It should be noted that such discussions have disappeared from Chinese military thinking. That could mean they don't actually have such concerns anymore or they do and don't want people (and their potential adversaries) to know- a massively wide valley of vague possibilities that reduces all to mere speculation.

[steve9728]

Like gunpowder, which can make someone you don't like silent forever but also can make someone you love really happy. The technology of the space programmes can always be associated with military applications. You can't convince the other side that my xxx plan is for the 'peaceful development of all mankind', because no one will trust their security to the promises of others, no matter China or the US. As Chinese I do know the CNSA's project is nearly purly peacefully because if we do want to do something wild, we will do it and let everyone know it in another logic and ways

I would like to add, however, that so far I have not seen any reports in any official Chinese media of any militarization by China on the Moon. And I personally think that such an act as the militarisation of the Moon is both shameful and ridiculous.

Edited May 24, 2022 by steve9728

[CFYL]

http://www.cmse.gov.cn/gfgg/202205/t20220520_49824.html

http://www.cmse.gov.cn/gfgg/202205/t20220523_49831.html

2nd stage of the CZ-7 Y5 which launched Tianzhou-4 on 10/05/2022 is losing altitude.

19/05/2022 16:00 (UTC+8) : inclination 41.6, ap 278.8km, pe 201.1km

22/05/2022 16:00 (UTC+8) : inclination 41.6, ap 248.3km, pe 186.4km

Reentry is just a matter of time -- it will fall faster as it goes deeper. I would say tomorrow.

EDIT: Not tomorrow. looking forward to June.

http://www.cmse.gov.cn/gfgg/202109/t20210929_48817.html

http://www.cmse.gov.cn/gfgg/202110/t20211006_48820.html

It took the 2nd stage of CZ-7 Y4 9 days to fall to a pe of ~180km, and another 6 days to actually reenter.

Edited May 24, 2022 by CFYL

[steve9728]

Meanwhile, Yuanwang 21 and 22 which are carrying CZ-5B rocket for the luanch of Wentian Module, has arrived off the coast of Qinglan Port.

[steve9728]

On 5/24/2022 at 3:19 AM, steve9728 said:

Meanwhile, Yuanwang 21 and 22 which are carrying CZ-5B rocket for the luanch of Wentian Module, has arrived off the coast of Qinglan Port.

Arrived! (via Weibo)

[CFYL]

This is close to politics, but at least it's positive movement.

On the evening of May 25, Zhang Kejian, administrator of China National Space Administration (CNSA), presented the first meeting of the Joint Space Committee of BRICS. (I'm sorry but I can't find an official translation for the "joint committee" term.)

The online meeting linked space agencies of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

I'm not sure what will this joint committee do tho.

[steve9728]

Looks like a crew of piolts who weren't afraid to die and broke into the no-fly zone.

Ever since those terrorists disguised as flight attendants at Cathay Pacific deliberately leaked emergency oxygen tanks for passengers in 2019, there's no way Cathay is an option for me to travel.

Edited May 26, 2022 by steve9728

[CFYL]

On 5/24/2022 at 9:52 AM, CFYL said:

Reentry is just a matter of time -- it will fall faster as it goes deeper. I would say tomorrow.

EDIT: Not tomorrow. looking forward to June.

Looks like I missed this.

http://www.cmse.gov.cn/gfgg/202205/t20220525_49844.html

25/05/2022 17:34 UTC+8 marked the reentry of this rocket stage. 24.2°E, 37.5°N. The official website stated that it was "In the Mediterranean", but it is really close to Greece. That point is on the ocean, but it is also only about 10km from the shores of the island of Kea, and less than 70km from the heart of Athens. But the debris, should, have fallen into the water.

6 minutes ago, CFYL said:

24.2°E, 37.5°N

This point is, literally, in the middle of a circle of Greek islands and peninsulas that are rather densly populated. Previous debris has fallen in Southern Pacific and Xinjiang, both of which are sparsely populated. Has someone in Europe seen the trail of the debris? The reentry was about 10 a.m. local time on May 25. I would be shocked if I saw a meteor coming down to the sea in front of me.

Edited May 26, 2022 by CFYL

[steve9728]

An imaginary picture of the future of the Wenchang launch site from the Chinese National Geography magazine:

From left to right and from bottom to top are:

• CZ-7 & 8 series rockets launch site (current launch site 2)
• CZ-5 rocket launch site (current lanch site 1)
• Fueling plant
• Heavy manned lunar rocket launch site
• Integrated rocket launch site
• Commercial rocket launch site
• Reuseble rocket landing site

At middle of the rocket transfer road (or track) is the satellite and spacecraft testing plant. The four white towers at the other end are the rocket assembly test buildings. On the far right of the picture is the rocket storage plant. In the distance of the picture are the Qinglan Port, the Qinglan Bridge and the city of Wenchang.

"It has also changed the temperament of Longlou Town, Wenchang City and the whole of Hainan because of spaceflight. Although tourism has long been a well-deserved pillar industry in Hainan. But look closely and you will see that the composition of tourists has quietly changed. Once, as a winter resort, Hainan's most popular visitors were the 'migratory elderly'. Nowadays, when you arrive at Haikou and Sanya airports by plane, you can see the slogan 'Come to Hainan, watch the launch' everywhere. There are more and more space enthusiasts, photographers and groups of primary and secondary school students among the visitors. Although Hainan's peak tourist season is still in winter, there are many 'mini-high points' that have nothing to do with the season, but only with rocket launches", says the magazine, "On the day of the launch of the Tianwen-1 Mars probe on 23 July 2020, the town of Longlou, which has only one main road, was flooded with nearly 200,000 people."

It reminded me of an earlier media interview with local residents about what space has brought to their lives. The villagers replied: We are now making money from whatever we do here

Edited May 28, 2022 by steve9728

[CFYL]

Today, CZ-2F Y14, carrying Shenzhou-14, has arrived at the laucnch tower.

It's scheduled for launch at 10:44 on June 5, according to the current CSS orbit. Officials haven't announced the exact time, but the June 5 window would allow for a quick docking to CSS within 6 hours.

Edited May 29, 2022 by CFYL

[SunlitZelkova]

In case anyone is wondering, I think the characters on the big boards in the second image from the top read “success”.

[steve9728]

39 minutes ago, SunlitZelkova said:

In case anyone is wondering, I think the characters on the big boards in the second image from the top read “success”.

The full version was: "PERFECTLY SUCCESS"

I think one of the best photos of this time would be this:

(via Weibo)

 

And meanwhile, CMS's offical weibo has update the images of arrival of the CZ-5B rocket at Qinglan Port last day:

 

 

A prediction: there will be something 'interesting' happened from one of the shipyards in Shanghai on the day of the Shenzhou-14 launch or before and afterwards.

Edited May 29, 2022 by steve9728

[SunlitZelkova]

Ah, yes, “imgbb.com service unavailable” is one of the best photos of the era!  (joking of course)

20 hours ago, steve9728 said:

A prediction: there will be something 'interesting' happened from one of the shipyards in Shanghai on the day of the Shenzhou-14 launch or before and afterwards.

I think the most recent photos still showed a ton of work equipment and so on around and in the dry dock. If “the interesting thing” was to happen at the same time as a space event, it might be the launch of Wentian or, perhaps Mengtian + completion of stage 1 of CSS.

If it was 2019 or so I would then make a joke about USS Gerald R. Ford and SLS Blk 1B.

[CFYL]

I‘m in Shanghai. We won't return to school until June 13. New cases have dropped to less than a hundred. The shipyard has been operating since April 23, and "the interesting thing" is, probably, prioritzed.

The 5m rocket in Wenchang is scheduled for launch in July. 

19 minutes ago, SunlitZelkova said:

imgbb.com

imgtu.com is also unstable; I can't log on from time to time. So I switched to superbed.cn, which is still operating smoothly. It all happened so suddenly 2 days ago -- imgtu.com has been very stable for months.

[steve9728]

Be patient. Patience is the most important and necessary virtue in this era. After all these years of waiting, it doesn't matter if it happens weeks later or months

[CFYL]

BTW CZ-5 reminds me of Tianwen-1. This leads me to Tianwen-2, which, on May 13 this years, was known to the public. It will be a 2-part mission. 

Together:

• (1) launch scheduled for 2025
• (2) transfer orbit to aestroid 2016HO3 (~1 year)
• (3-4) approching & rendevous with aestroid 2016HO3
• (5) orbiting & close investigation of aestroid 2016HO3 (~1 year)
• (6) landing & sampling
• (7) launch from aestroid 2016HO3, standing by for return
• (8) transfer orbit back to the Earth (~0.5 years)

Separation into two ships, Part 1 and Part 2.

Part 1:

• (9) reentry & sample return

Part 2:

• (10) transfer orbit to a main-belt comet 331P/PANSTARRS (awful translation alert) (~7 years)
• (11-12) approaching & rendevous with comet 331P/PANSTARRS
• (13) orbiting & close investigation of comet 331P/PANSTARRS

The numbers refer to the ones in the picture above. Obviously* the comet probe uses a gravity assist from the Earth, while the sample return ship burns to a shallower pe and go all the way down.

There are some other pictures.

Pic2. Flight chart, with small deviations from the one above.

Pic 3. A brief sum-up of what China has done and what China will probably do.

Pic 4. (Not official; this is a guess by common people) In 2020 Tianwen-1 went to Mars. In 2025 Tianwen-2 will go to aestroied 2016HO3 and comet 331P/PANSTARRS. 2025-2030 a Mars sample return mission is planned. In ~2030? some probe will visit Jupiter "and other planets".

Pic 5. Orbit of aestroid 2016HO3

Pic 6. 2016HO3 is a near-Earth aestroid. Based on ground observations, a theory is proposed that, this aestroid might be a remnant of the collision which formed our moon (if the collision theory is correct.) This survey will certainly help.

Pic 7. Another flight chart. Double gravity assist.

This is a picture of comet 331P/PANSTARRS by Hubble. It has multiple tails, which interests scientists. It is also believed to have a close moon according to ground observations.

Pic 8. A proposed picture of Tianwen-2. The characters on the top reads "return capsule", while the lower ones reads "main probe". Maybe it's just me, but... The orange/brown high gain antenna looks like Communotron 88-88 and the solar panels are identical to OX-10C Photovoltaic Panels. The circular panels are designed for longer lifespan.

Sources: not official. They are just news pages.

https://baijiahao.baidu.com/s?id=1732906326871673008

https://cj.sina.com.cn/articles/view/6678094116/18e0ba124001011k5u

Edited May 30, 2022 by CFYL

[SunlitZelkova]

4 hours ago, CFYL said:

Pic 4. (Not official; this is a guess by common people) In 2020 Tianwen-1 went to Mars. In 2025 Tianwen-2 will go to aestroied 2016HO3 and comet 331P/PANSTARRS. In ~2030? some probe will visit Jupiter "and other planets".

Out of curiosity, what common people (like a big space watcher group or some media outlet)?

I’m surprised Mars sample return isn’t there. Launching on Long March 9 might be a bit much for the 2028 deadline but the dual launch with LM-3 and LM-5 could be doable.

Now that I think about it, I wonder if the asteroid sample return might provide info and experience for MSR.

[CFYL]

47 minutes ago, SunlitZelkova said:

common people

There's a Chinese term called “坊间”. A half-decent translation could be "Rumor has it that..."

47 minutes ago, SunlitZelkova said:

Mars sample return

My fault -- it is described in the picture in Chinese and I forgot to translate it. I've added a sentence to the caption. Planned for launch is 2025-2030.

Officials don't say much about future missions. Mainly because if they fail to launch before the deadline, it's hard to explain to the public. Usually they only tell us about the missions that they are "confident" with, like the LEO space station and Moon sample return. The aestroid sample return (Tianwen-2) can be seen as an official announcement although "the electronics are still going through final tests".

Most announcements, including the 2025 ASR and the pre-2030 crewed moon landing, are issued by technological or administrative leaders in an interview as idividuals, rather than by an official spokesperson in a press conference. Anyways, they are "somebody" in CASC, so I would take it as an official announcement.

Yet, I cannot deny that, some aerospace advances are still classified. CPE missions are fine; "reusable LEO spaceplane" would be completely different.

Edited May 30, 2022 by CFYL

[steve9728]

Officially, Tianwen-3 is still the Mars sample return mission and will be launch not later than 2030, said by the Wu Weiren, the Chief Designer of China's Lunar Exploration Project. The asteroid mission will luanch at 2025, said by Zhang Rongqiao, the Chief Designer of China's Mars Exploration Project.

The official statement on the progress of the Tianwen-2 is that it is "in the initial prototype stage of development and its electrical products are now undergoing comprehensive testing". For CNSA, the difference between the initial prototype and the prototype is that one is put it in the museum in the future and the other is really going to do something.

And Wu Weiren also mentioned the Tianwen-4 is for traversal survey of Jupiter, or other planets in the solar system.

Although they are all taking something back home but asteroids don't have atmosphere my friend

Edited May 30, 2022 by steve9728

[steve9728]

Wait for several days and I really can't figure out why those guys in the publicity didn't make an English translation of this: Hello Mars, a 5-part documentary about the Tianwen-1 project from inception to its arrival on the surface of Mars

In case anyone is wondering, the opening few Martian locations are: Pavonis Mons, Arsia Mons, Marth Crater at Arabia Terra, Elysium Mons, and where Zhurong rover landing, the Utopia Planitia

Edited May 30, 2022 by steve9728

[steve9728]

"White is the New Black", I like that

(The Galacy Energy's rocket CERES-1 used to be black)